BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
...and thats Over.
On paper the pitching advantage is with Cleveland. They have Byrd on 4 days rest, so he can replace Westbrook at 1st drop (with Betancourt to follow for as long as needed, one would think, before he gives over to Borowski). All that noted, Boston has scored 10, 6 & 12 in regulation innings at home this series, and the aforementioned pitching lineup would still, to my mind, be expected to cough up (at least) 4-5 runs prior to the tribe's closer entering the game.
The Sox will obviously have a short leash on Dice-Krap, but how short? This guy puts 2 on base at anytime, he's 1 pitch away from 3-0 as much as he's 1 pitch away from his next out, and he's not about to be pulled if the 1st 2 get on base for Hafner to start the game (although I'd prefer, as a Sox fan, he was). So, in other words, Dice-Krap either pitches a gem (and gets a kiss from Santa at game's end for a job well done), or he'll leave having conceded 3-4 runs before Terry wakes from his usual coma and does what's needed. Lester will likely replace Dice-Krap if he's yanked early, and while he did a decent enough job in game 4, Cleveland was under no pressure to score at that point. He was hammered in a brief game 2 outing, he'd be good for 1-2 runs over a decent relieving spell. Then the usual suspects leading into Paps, another run at least you'd think, given a close game.
The only thing to fear is the Tribe's offense being completely in the tank, but as their average losing margin for this series is 7.66 runs, if the Sox continue to do what they've been doing there's no reason they can't again deliver it themselves should the CLE bats stay cold. I don't personally see that freeze persisting, and IMO - weather conditions permitting - the only way this fails is if 1 or both teams decide to pile up the DPs early which sets the scoring tone for the game, as a couple of post season contests have already well demonstrated to this point.
Why on earth, given what this series has delivered in reality (3 Overs, 2 pushes & 1 Under) would you favour Under other than getting caught up in the *it's a game 7, therefore its going to be tight* archetype? Game 7 for the Sox 04 come-back wasn't tight, and it didn't go Under, either (that game, like this one, didnt have either side trotting out an ace to start matters - and anyone who comes back with "but Kevin Brown..." should be shot). And in 04 the Red Sox werent on their beloved home turf, so while the 04 lineup was better then this 07 version, the venue difference compensates for such a comparison, at least for me.
The Home Ump has a woefully low SO/BB ratio (1.62) which is terminal news for Dice-Krap, but is notable for a low HR average (1.8) which explains his O/U record (16-18) which spites that SO/BB ratio. However, in a game like this with comparable weather conditions to Saturday, his HR average is less likely to be accuratly reflected than something he specifically controls (the SO/BB ratio). He does however have a decent O/U mark (8-4) for totals 9.5 or higher which goes against the grain of his 9.23 run average. "Bad" pitchers (and their higher total lines) suffer at the hands of this guy, and has been the case for most of his recent seasons.
Weather & temp will decide how much I put on this, but Over 10.5 is my bet.
On paper the pitching advantage is with Cleveland. They have Byrd on 4 days rest, so he can replace Westbrook at 1st drop (with Betancourt to follow for as long as needed, one would think, before he gives over to Borowski). All that noted, Boston has scored 10, 6 & 12 in regulation innings at home this series, and the aforementioned pitching lineup would still, to my mind, be expected to cough up (at least) 4-5 runs prior to the tribe's closer entering the game.
The Sox will obviously have a short leash on Dice-Krap, but how short? This guy puts 2 on base at anytime, he's 1 pitch away from 3-0 as much as he's 1 pitch away from his next out, and he's not about to be pulled if the 1st 2 get on base for Hafner to start the game (although I'd prefer, as a Sox fan, he was). So, in other words, Dice-Krap either pitches a gem (and gets a kiss from Santa at game's end for a job well done), or he'll leave having conceded 3-4 runs before Terry wakes from his usual coma and does what's needed. Lester will likely replace Dice-Krap if he's yanked early, and while he did a decent enough job in game 4, Cleveland was under no pressure to score at that point. He was hammered in a brief game 2 outing, he'd be good for 1-2 runs over a decent relieving spell. Then the usual suspects leading into Paps, another run at least you'd think, given a close game.
The only thing to fear is the Tribe's offense being completely in the tank, but as their average losing margin for this series is 7.66 runs, if the Sox continue to do what they've been doing there's no reason they can't again deliver it themselves should the CLE bats stay cold. I don't personally see that freeze persisting, and IMO - weather conditions permitting - the only way this fails is if 1 or both teams decide to pile up the DPs early which sets the scoring tone for the game, as a couple of post season contests have already well demonstrated to this point.
Why on earth, given what this series has delivered in reality (3 Overs, 2 pushes & 1 Under) would you favour Under other than getting caught up in the *it's a game 7, therefore its going to be tight* archetype? Game 7 for the Sox 04 come-back wasn't tight, and it didn't go Under, either (that game, like this one, didnt have either side trotting out an ace to start matters - and anyone who comes back with "but Kevin Brown..." should be shot). And in 04 the Red Sox werent on their beloved home turf, so while the 04 lineup was better then this 07 version, the venue difference compensates for such a comparison, at least for me.
The Home Ump has a woefully low SO/BB ratio (1.62) which is terminal news for Dice-Krap, but is notable for a low HR average (1.8) which explains his O/U record (16-18) which spites that SO/BB ratio. However, in a game like this with comparable weather conditions to Saturday, his HR average is less likely to be accuratly reflected than something he specifically controls (the SO/BB ratio). He does however have a decent O/U mark (8-4) for totals 9.5 or higher which goes against the grain of his 9.23 run average. "Bad" pitchers (and their higher total lines) suffer at the hands of this guy, and has been the case for most of his recent seasons.
Weather & temp will decide how much I put on this, but Over 10.5 is my bet.
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