On 2 so far

[tuck321]

Houston plus 10.5 for 1 unit. Will add at least 1 unit when I see Artest in the line up which he is likely to be.
Orlando plus 2 and ml. Briefly 2 of the referees have home teams with su losing records. See Atlanta as a pretty good team that has run lucky. Luck runs out. Orlando did just what was expected yesterday. Moderate effort to lock a win in a trivial game while waiting for Atlanta. Orlando getting 2 or less is 11-1 ats last 12 in that role. Orlando has a concept of themselves as an ELITE team. That requires a win at Atlanta. Both teams have very good ats records against over 500 teams but I see some unreality there. Atlanta has covered losing or winning in good circumstances. Orlando has mostly just won despite bad situations. The sheer quality of their wins su vs the Lakers and a 1 point loss at the Suns after which they playing b-b without Howard won at Utah is very impressive. B_b this year on the road they are 3-0 su and ats at Portland, Utah and Washington.
Atlanta has been a fine home favorite. but when playing strong teams they beat
Houston missing multiple top players
Denver with no Nene
Cleveland with no Z
Their rebounding recently has been sliding as well.
Orlando is 12-5 su on the road. They are the better team. They want this game and their revenge and I think they get it.
Boston game is just a joke. Will have more on that later but will say now that triple revenge, a quality team, and large rest advantage are apparently not highly regarded

 

[DanUSC]

thanks tuck, I was leaning hard on Rockets and what you are saying is exactly right. The Boston line is ridiculous. I am locking that in now. I got it at 10.5

 

[Mo]

I like the info on Clevelan Tuck, im leaning towards the Kittens, Love your Houston play also. Tuck what do you think about G.S.W tonite against the Lake show.

 

[t-dot]

Pietrus and Bogans not playing is big for me. I dont know how you can put your faith in Reddick to guard any one of the hawks wing players.

the magic starters played big minutes on a short bench and now on a B2B, its a tough spot. They can exact all the revenge they want on friday.

 

[tuck321]

The top 4 four for Orlando are pretty much as good as it gets. Gortat, Lee and Redick all seem very constructive players. Good team plays a better team. I play the better team armed with motivation and a great history of getting the job done.
Have given 8 with Cleveland first half and will tickle the first quarter when available. Cleveland started the year losing at Boston while Boston was celebrating the Championship. They ended the season last year losing to Boston. The Bobcats just beat Boston in a tremendous OT victory. Consider this the flip side of Clippers at Dallas.
Would avoid a game play. Referees are bad and Bobcats have some real chance of a second half rally.
Will get back on those other games.

 

[Go play Intramurals]

I live in Houston - I watch every game - The Rockets are going to get destroyed tonight - GO with the Celtics. T-Mac is a mess!!

 

[tuck321]

Really, I lived in Houston myself for about 12 years although that was a long time ago. T-Mac I believe is Not playing and Ron is. This is the second game of a b-b where Yao plays very good. Scola is a legitimate top player. Artest is the physical threat that Houston lacked forever. I actually watched the preseason game this year where Houston played in Boston with Artest where they lost by 1 point. Load up on Boston
Played GS plus 9 average. Not sure where the line is moving and just wanted some early involvement. Missing Walton, Farmer and Lamar is a lot when you just beat this team at LA by 17. GS is far from great but at home they have lost by 5, 5, 5, 1, 11, and 11. The teams beating them by 11 were very good and in much better spots then today where the Lakers play Indiana and Miami next both of which beat them this year. LA except for the 66ers and Clippers two special cases has really only smashed upper level teams on the road this year. Referees look good for GS but very mixed trends here so just betting general value.

 

[tuck321]

By the way Covers has this funny note concerning Houston. Houston is 12-3 over last 15 on the road. They also show Boston 10-4 over vs the Southwest. Two of the referees are Lewis 14-7 over and Callahan. The last 5 games for Lewis with Boston went over and 4 of the last 5 games with Houston went over. Callahan is a suspected cheat who is 16-8 over. In a burst of creativity I bet the game over.

 

[Mo]

Isnt Callahan the ref that was makin some questionable calls in a cpl of games last week

 

[tuck321]

Yes he is which is actually a problem because we just need a fair result and we probably win. Cheating here is not what we want it is what we endure.

 

[Mo]

Yes he is which is actually a problem because we just need a fair result and we probably win. Cheating here is not what we want it is what we endure.

Point taken: But I think that his calls had a direct positive impact on the total. (going over) Either way, good luck pal.

 

[tuck321]

Thinking about Denver. Like dogs better. Really can not help it. Fundamental concept. Top player goes down and the team steps up and wins the next game. We have a referee range here of 10-5 in favor of the home team from 5-9.5. Denver shot 58.1% last game. The game before they shot 59.8% against Toronto and then fell apart against the Spurs is staring at me. Which angle here is more key. Maybe the logical thing is to simply avoid the game but would like to understand this better. Think most of the Heat road wins were dut to very lucky situations but maybe this is another such situation. Denver is still a very solid 13-4 and the Heat are still 6-9 on the road. No idea what to do here.

 

[divol]

Tuck, Denver without Carmelo did ok at home this season so far...
Anyway, as always, great write ups...
Have any idea if T-Mac and Artest play or not?

 

[GTribe5]

tuck, what do you think about the Pistons-Blazers game? Rip and Wallace are supposed to be out tonight. Not sure the bigs that Pistons have will handle the bigs of the blazers. I know Roy will be out but I think Blazers got to much talent on there side.

 

[ddk997]

love them both. GL bro

 

[tuck321]

The plan was to play the tough guy against Boston and the wimp vs phillie. If Artest feels healthy he will play and I expect him to but there is still some ? there.
I think we have a similar situation in Utah Hornets to Bobcats at Cleveland. Lakers have been a major pain too Utah. The recent 13 point loss is just one example. The Lakers also took them out of the playoffs. Now after feeling like dirt after the Lakers pushed them around they see the Hornets step on the Lakers. Expect the usual human emotions of envy and rage to push them to do what they usually do which is kick the Hornets around. The Hornets might not like the script but it seems likely to me.
Referees are homers but Hornets have done pretty well with them. What has happened in Hornet games at Utah is Hornets do fine first quarter. Get bombed second quarter and get bombed third quarter. Trouble is there really is a lot of heat on this Utah team now to step it up in the first quarter. Hve a 1 unit bet on Utah minus 4 and a half unit bet on Utah minus 1 in the third quarter where they normally crush the Hornets. If the game is fairly close with Utah not up more than 7 or less or even down will bet more on the third quarter. Normally dislike making early third quarter bets but with the history 1 point just seemed so cheap hated to pass it up totally in the third.

 

[SF_capper]

love the utah bet

 

[tuck321]

Making 2 very small bets in the Suns game. Small over 58 first quarter and Indiana plus 10 also Small. Suns are back to the old days. Terrible home covers 5-11 ats at home. They also have a major look ahead coming up. Normally a juicy spot to fade them. Just a small fade today though. Truth is they dislike Indiana and usually cover against them especially at home. Dallas though is really going to eat on them. Losing by 15 to Dallas early this year--3-7 last 10 against them. Just hard not to take 10 plus here with that ahead but being clear this is not automatic. It is a bare percentage play that is all. Suns will win and they do not like this team.

 

[tuck321]

In the Cleveland game assuming the first quarter goes decisively to Cleveland as I hope, I will be making a second half bet on the Bobcats as it fits history and the Boston look ahead. Most of the remaining games seem very hard to me. Not attracted to Portland or the Grizz. No idea what to do in the OKC Minn game. Just think those are tough games where I have no idea what to do. GL

 

[SportsNut]

Good call on ORL . I should have been more cautious playing ATL since they had won down in ORL early on maybe it was the season opener . Anyway I didnt see you thread but reading it now certainly makes alot of sense and I just overvalued the ORL absences ...good work all around

 

[linewatcher]

solid calls, bro...:shake: