Ole Miss vs. Arkansas NCAAF Week 7 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Key Trend
So far, the „over“ is 3-0 in Ole Miss games.
Oddsmakers are not close to accounting for just how high-scoring Ole Miss games are and going to be.
In the Rebels’ season opener, the over/under was at 59.5 and Ole Miss and Florida exceeded that total by 26.5 points.
Then, the over/under was set at 63 for the Rebels’ game against Kentucky. Both teams combined for 83 points.
Last week, the over/under was set at 74. Both teams (Alabama and Ole Miss) helped produce one of the SEC’s most offensive games in history partly by accruing a combined total of 111 points.
So in every Ole Miss contest thus far, both teams have combined to score at least 20 points more than the over/under.
Ole Miss’s New-Look Offense
Some key characteristics of this year’s Rebel offense include: no huddle, fast tempo, spread formations, and aggressiveness.
Playmakers like wide receiver Elijah Moore — who even last year accrued 850 yards on 67 receptions — are getting out into space.
So far this year, he has been unstoppable despite going against the SEC’s most highly regarded cornerbacks like Florida’s Kaiir Elam.
In every game so far, Moore has caught at least 10 passes. In three games, he has 462 yards.
It’s not just Moore either. It’s the play-calling and scheme in general that help create favorable passing situations for the Rebel offense.
Their wide receivers are executing their routes in order to get guys open.
Look at 1:00 in the following video.
You’ll see a stacked wide receiver look.
Ole Miss’ running back draws Florida’s underneath defenders by offering himself as a pass-catching option out of the backfield — and he demands respect as one.
Two receivers on the right of the screen occupy Florida’s other safety.
One receiver on the left side of the screen runs a corner route towards the sideline in order to draw the safety to him.
The receiver next to him runs his route in the opposite direction down the middle of the field.
He’s wide open because so many Florida defenders are not in any kind of position to stop him.
All Matt Corral has to do is to throw a deep ball to a wide open receiver and Corral has no problem maintaining that level of accuracy.
Corral is thriving in the Rebels’ aggressive offense. Through three games, he’s thrown for 1,080 yards and nine touchdowns to one interception.
Part of why defenders are out of position is that they don’t know where to line themselves up before the snap.
The thing is: Ole Miss’ up-tempo and no-huddle offense doesn’t give them time to think.
By playing fast, the Rebels also keep defensive linemen from rotating and they keep defenders from having time to breathe.
Rebel Offense vs. Arkansas Pass Defense
Nobody is figuring out how to limit Lane Kiffin’s Rebel offense.
Alabama is supposed to be extremely talented in its secondary, but allowed the most yards to Ole Miss in school history.
Florida was supposed to return a lot of high-level ability in its secondary. So was Kentucky, which added to what was already one of the highest-ranked pass defense units last year.
In terms of pass defense, Arkansas was never supposed to be and is not on any of those teams’ level.
Currently, the Razorbacks rank nationally in the lower half in opposing passer rating.
So far, Arkansas has faced Georgia, Mississippi State, and Auburn.
Mississippi State’s own new-look offense seems to have been figured out by SEC opponents — the Bulldogs scored two points in their last game against Kentucky.
Georgia’s offense is known to have a relatively low ceiling for its quarterbacks and to be more about producing top NFL-caliber running backs.
Still, Stetson Bennett came in and turned things around for Georgia in its season opener against Arkansas. Bennett was highly efficient and threw for 211 yards in a short amount of time.
Auburn’s Bo Nix is an inconsistent, inefficient passer who only completes 6.3 YPA. But he had his most efficient game — in terms of completion percentage — against the Razorback pass defense.
So the point is that Arkansas’ pass defense is struggling against much less prolific pass attacks, against teams which would rather run the ball, which are more conservative, and which aren’t likely to be aggressive or to pursue and accrue big plays.
It doesn’t help the Razorbacks that their third-best corner on the depth chart, Jarques McClellion, has recently opted out of the season. He had 20 starts under his belt during which he accrued 11 pass breakups plus an interception.
While Arkansas’ pass rush has shown a lot of promise — like in the first half against Georgia — Ole Miss’ fast tempo will negate that and wear Arkansas down.
When the Razorbacks’ pass rush hasn’t succeeded, their defense has grown all the more vulnerable against the pass.
Arkansas Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Last year, Ole Miss ranked dead-last in the SEC in pass defense and by a large margin.
Much of that same talentless talent is back. The Rebel defense is at a greater disadvantage because of all the scoring — and at such a fast tempo — that its offense achieves. Ole Miss defenders lack time to rest.
It is absolutely incredible how helpless the Rebel defense is. Look at the following stat.
This is uniquely impressive in a bad sense because it is almost like Ole Miss’ defense isn’t even playing on two feet.
For Arkansas, Feleipe Franks has been a positive addition in Arkansas’ pass-first offense —the Hogs rank 31st in pass play percentage.
The former regular starter at Florida, Franks is completing 64.9 percent of his pass attempts for 7.8 YPA and has accrued seven touchdowns to two interceptions.
He has three different receivers with over 100 yards. So there’s plenty of chemistry being developed.
De’Vion Warren leads the group with 223 yards.
The Verdict
Ole Miss’ offense is unstoppable. It’s defense can’t stop anybody.
Arkansas’ pass defense is already vulnerable and its pass attack is already effective.
For the above reasons, let’s keep hitting the „over“ in Ole Miss games.
Best Bet: Over 76.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Key Trend
So far, the „over“ is 3-0 in Ole Miss games.
Oddsmakers are not close to accounting for just how high-scoring Ole Miss games are and going to be.
In the Rebels’ season opener, the over/under was at 59.5 and Ole Miss and Florida exceeded that total by 26.5 points.
Then, the over/under was set at 63 for the Rebels’ game against Kentucky. Both teams combined for 83 points.
Last week, the over/under was set at 74. Both teams (Alabama and Ole Miss) helped produce one of the SEC’s most offensive games in history partly by accruing a combined total of 111 points.
So in every Ole Miss contest thus far, both teams have combined to score at least 20 points more than the over/under.
Ole Miss’s New-Look Offense
Some key characteristics of this year’s Rebel offense include: no huddle, fast tempo, spread formations, and aggressiveness.
Playmakers like wide receiver Elijah Moore — who even last year accrued 850 yards on 67 receptions — are getting out into space.
So far this year, he has been unstoppable despite going against the SEC’s most highly regarded cornerbacks like Florida’s Kaiir Elam.
In every game so far, Moore has caught at least 10 passes. In three games, he has 462 yards.
It’s not just Moore either. It’s the play-calling and scheme in general that help create favorable passing situations for the Rebel offense.
Their wide receivers are executing their routes in order to get guys open.
Look at 1:00 in the following video.
You’ll see a stacked wide receiver look.
Ole Miss’ running back draws Florida’s underneath defenders by offering himself as a pass-catching option out of the backfield — and he demands respect as one.
Two receivers on the right of the screen occupy Florida’s other safety.
One receiver on the left side of the screen runs a corner route towards the sideline in order to draw the safety to him.
The receiver next to him runs his route in the opposite direction down the middle of the field.
He’s wide open because so many Florida defenders are not in any kind of position to stop him.
All Matt Corral has to do is to throw a deep ball to a wide open receiver and Corral has no problem maintaining that level of accuracy.
Corral is thriving in the Rebels’ aggressive offense. Through three games, he’s thrown for 1,080 yards and nine touchdowns to one interception.
Part of why defenders are out of position is that they don’t know where to line themselves up before the snap.
The thing is: Ole Miss’ up-tempo and no-huddle offense doesn’t give them time to think.
By playing fast, the Rebels also keep defensive linemen from rotating and they keep defenders from having time to breathe.
Rebel Offense vs. Arkansas Pass Defense
Nobody is figuring out how to limit Lane Kiffin’s Rebel offense.
Alabama is supposed to be extremely talented in its secondary, but allowed the most yards to Ole Miss in school history.
Florida was supposed to return a lot of high-level ability in its secondary. So was Kentucky, which added to what was already one of the highest-ranked pass defense units last year.
In terms of pass defense, Arkansas was never supposed to be and is not on any of those teams’ level.
Currently, the Razorbacks rank nationally in the lower half in opposing passer rating.
So far, Arkansas has faced Georgia, Mississippi State, and Auburn.
Mississippi State’s own new-look offense seems to have been figured out by SEC opponents — the Bulldogs scored two points in their last game against Kentucky.
Georgia’s offense is known to have a relatively low ceiling for its quarterbacks and to be more about producing top NFL-caliber running backs.
Still, Stetson Bennett came in and turned things around for Georgia in its season opener against Arkansas. Bennett was highly efficient and threw for 211 yards in a short amount of time.
Auburn’s Bo Nix is an inconsistent, inefficient passer who only completes 6.3 YPA. But he had his most efficient game — in terms of completion percentage — against the Razorback pass defense.
So the point is that Arkansas’ pass defense is struggling against much less prolific pass attacks, against teams which would rather run the ball, which are more conservative, and which aren’t likely to be aggressive or to pursue and accrue big plays.
It doesn’t help the Razorbacks that their third-best corner on the depth chart, Jarques McClellion, has recently opted out of the season. He had 20 starts under his belt during which he accrued 11 pass breakups plus an interception.
While Arkansas’ pass rush has shown a lot of promise — like in the first half against Georgia — Ole Miss’ fast tempo will negate that and wear Arkansas down.
When the Razorbacks’ pass rush hasn’t succeeded, their defense has grown all the more vulnerable against the pass.
Arkansas Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Last year, Ole Miss ranked dead-last in the SEC in pass defense and by a large margin.
Much of that same talentless talent is back. The Rebel defense is at a greater disadvantage because of all the scoring — and at such a fast tempo — that its offense achieves. Ole Miss defenders lack time to rest.
It is absolutely incredible how helpless the Rebel defense is. Look at the following stat.
This is uniquely impressive in a bad sense because it is almost like Ole Miss’ defense isn’t even playing on two feet.
For Arkansas, Feleipe Franks has been a positive addition in Arkansas’ pass-first offense —the Hogs rank 31st in pass play percentage.
The former regular starter at Florida, Franks is completing 64.9 percent of his pass attempts for 7.8 YPA and has accrued seven touchdowns to two interceptions.
He has three different receivers with over 100 yards. So there’s plenty of chemistry being developed.
De’Vion Warren leads the group with 223 yards.
The Verdict
Ole Miss’ offense is unstoppable. It’s defense can’t stop anybody.
Arkansas’ pass defense is already vulnerable and its pass attack is already effective.
For the above reasons, let’s keep hitting the „over“ in Ole Miss games.
Best Bet: Over 76.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
