Oklahoma vs. Texas College Football Week 6 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at noon ET (ABC) at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas
Longhorn Ground Game
Running the ball is paramount to a Longhorn offense that owns the nation's 10th-highest run-play percentage.
On the ground, Texas relies primarily on its top running back, Bijan Robinson.
In his last three games, Robinson throttled TCU, Texas Tech, and Rice with over six YPC. Before those three games, he failed to reach four YPC against Arkansas.
The difference between the defensive quality of TCU, Texas Tech, and Rice on the one side and Arkansas on the other is stark.
The Horned Frog defensive line is repeatedly getting gashed with characteristically pass-heavy SMU being the last team to run over TCU before Texas did it.
Rice, like TCU, ranks outside the top 100 nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards per game.
While Texas Tech ranks somewhat higher than both Rice and TCU in the same category, it benefitted from facing low-profile teams like Florida International and Stephen F. Austin.
Robinson struggled, however, against an Arkansas squad that ranks 18th nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Sooner Run Defense
Compared with Arkansas, the Sooners form a similarly tough test as they rank 15th nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Run defense has absolutely benefitted from defensive coordinator Alex Grinch's rebuild of the entire Sooner defense.
The talent level is on the rise among Sooner defenders. This defense also features a lot of returning experience -- experience in terms of playing games and now also experience in Grinch's defensive system.
This depth certainly extends to both the defensive line and linebacking units, which helps explain why the Sooner run defense ranks so highly.
Unlike the Longhorn ground game, Oklahoma's run defense can make the claim to have mastered difficult tests.
For example, the Sooners shut down a Nebraska rush attack that ranks 15th nationally in rushing yards per game.
Scrambling playmaker Adrian Martinez had by far his worst game as a runner against the Sooner defense.
Running back Rahmir Johnson, since he started accruing double-digit carries for Nebraska, also had his worst rushing output. The same can be said for Gabe Ervin Jr.
Texas Offense vs. Sooner Defense
Since the beginning of the season, Texas' offensive line has been an object of scrutiny both for its run-blocking and for its inability to keep the quarterback upright let alone undeterred by pass pressures. This has been true especially against the Longhorn offense's notable test, the Razorback defense.
With veterans like Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey, the Sooner defensive line is adept at achieving penetration and pressure.
The Sooner front seven will thus challenge Texas' rather unproven offensive line.
It would really help the Longhorns if quarterback Casey Thompson could challenge the Sooners deep so that the Sooner defense would have to worry about the vertical passing game in addition to concerning itself with the Longhorn rush attack.
But the numbers show that he struggles to connect on deep balls. Video footage reveals his tendency to throw off his back foot, causing deep balls to sail.
By putting too much air under his deep passes, defensive backs gain the time to recover to the ball in order to make a play.
Sooner Offense vs. Texas Defense
Texas' pass defense has a lot to worry about for ranking 97th nationally in opposing passer rating.
The Longhorns repeatedly allow opposing quarterbacks to be relatively efficient or relatively prolific against them and now they face their toughest test of the season.
One problem with Texas is its lack of pass rush. Last year, the Longhorns relied extensively on Joseph Ossai: Ossai accrued almost a third of the team's sacks.
This year, however, Ossai is gone and the player most depended upon to step up in his place, Jacoby Jones, has struggled massively.
His missed tackles and paucity of sacks is not allowing the Longhorn pass rush to pressure the quarterback as it needs to.
Sooner quarterback Spencer Rattler will consequently have plenty of time to throw in order to connect with a wide receiver in a loaded group of Sooner pass-catchers.
An All-Big 12 second-teamer last year as a freshman, Mims has established himself as Rattler's top deep target. He is also a reliable piece in screens.
Rattler also likes to lean on Jadon Haselwood, who is known among other things for his high-level contested catch rate, which his size helps him accomplish and which is evident in highlight reels.
Despite Haselwood's threat and success, he is only the team's fourth-leading receiver, which speaks to the depth and quality among OU wide receivers.
The Odds
Any observation of Oklahoma's ATS struggles this year is deceptive because the Sooners have been heavy favorites in every game.
For this game, however, the Sooners are not heavy favorites. This fact positions them very positively because, since 2017, they are 6-0 ATS when favored by fewer than seven points.
Best Bet: Sooners -3.5 at +100 with BetOnline
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at noon ET (ABC) at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas
Longhorn Ground Game
Running the ball is paramount to a Longhorn offense that owns the nation's 10th-highest run-play percentage.
On the ground, Texas relies primarily on its top running back, Bijan Robinson.
In his last three games, Robinson throttled TCU, Texas Tech, and Rice with over six YPC. Before those three games, he failed to reach four YPC against Arkansas.
The difference between the defensive quality of TCU, Texas Tech, and Rice on the one side and Arkansas on the other is stark.
The Horned Frog defensive line is repeatedly getting gashed with characteristically pass-heavy SMU being the last team to run over TCU before Texas did it.
Rice, like TCU, ranks outside the top 100 nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards per game.
While Texas Tech ranks somewhat higher than both Rice and TCU in the same category, it benefitted from facing low-profile teams like Florida International and Stephen F. Austin.
Robinson struggled, however, against an Arkansas squad that ranks 18th nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Sooner Run Defense
Compared with Arkansas, the Sooners form a similarly tough test as they rank 15th nationally in limiting opposing rushing yards.
Run defense has absolutely benefitted from defensive coordinator Alex Grinch's rebuild of the entire Sooner defense.
The talent level is on the rise among Sooner defenders. This defense also features a lot of returning experience -- experience in terms of playing games and now also experience in Grinch's defensive system.
This depth certainly extends to both the defensive line and linebacking units, which helps explain why the Sooner run defense ranks so highly.
Unlike the Longhorn ground game, Oklahoma's run defense can make the claim to have mastered difficult tests.
For example, the Sooners shut down a Nebraska rush attack that ranks 15th nationally in rushing yards per game.
Scrambling playmaker Adrian Martinez had by far his worst game as a runner against the Sooner defense.
Running back Rahmir Johnson, since he started accruing double-digit carries for Nebraska, also had his worst rushing output. The same can be said for Gabe Ervin Jr.
Texas Offense vs. Sooner Defense
Since the beginning of the season, Texas' offensive line has been an object of scrutiny both for its run-blocking and for its inability to keep the quarterback upright let alone undeterred by pass pressures. This has been true especially against the Longhorn offense's notable test, the Razorback defense.
With veterans like Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey, the Sooner defensive line is adept at achieving penetration and pressure.
The Sooner front seven will thus challenge Texas' rather unproven offensive line.
It would really help the Longhorns if quarterback Casey Thompson could challenge the Sooners deep so that the Sooner defense would have to worry about the vertical passing game in addition to concerning itself with the Longhorn rush attack.
But the numbers show that he struggles to connect on deep balls. Video footage reveals his tendency to throw off his back foot, causing deep balls to sail.
By putting too much air under his deep passes, defensive backs gain the time to recover to the ball in order to make a play.
Sooner Offense vs. Texas Defense
Texas' pass defense has a lot to worry about for ranking 97th nationally in opposing passer rating.
The Longhorns repeatedly allow opposing quarterbacks to be relatively efficient or relatively prolific against them and now they face their toughest test of the season.
One problem with Texas is its lack of pass rush. Last year, the Longhorns relied extensively on Joseph Ossai: Ossai accrued almost a third of the team's sacks.
This year, however, Ossai is gone and the player most depended upon to step up in his place, Jacoby Jones, has struggled massively.
His missed tackles and paucity of sacks is not allowing the Longhorn pass rush to pressure the quarterback as it needs to.
Sooner quarterback Spencer Rattler will consequently have plenty of time to throw in order to connect with a wide receiver in a loaded group of Sooner pass-catchers.
An All-Big 12 second-teamer last year as a freshman, Mims has established himself as Rattler's top deep target. He is also a reliable piece in screens.
Rattler also likes to lean on Jadon Haselwood, who is known among other things for his high-level contested catch rate, which his size helps him accomplish and which is evident in highlight reels.
Despite Haselwood's threat and success, he is only the team's fourth-leading receiver, which speaks to the depth and quality among OU wide receivers.
The Odds
Any observation of Oklahoma's ATS struggles this year is deceptive because the Sooners have been heavy favorites in every game.
For this game, however, the Sooners are not heavy favorites. This fact positions them very positively because, since 2017, they are 6-0 ATS when favored by fewer than seven points.
Best Bet: Sooners -3.5 at +100 with BetOnline
