Texas vs. Oklahoma: NCAAF Week 6 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at noon ET at Cotton Bowl (FOX) in Dallas
Overrated
I cannot figure out why the Sooners are favored in this one.
Erase all preconceptions that you have of this team. This is not the star-studded Lincoln Riley offense of years past with Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray plus NFL-caliber wide receivers and strong running backs.
Rather, this offense is ridden by depletion at the skill positions plus an inexperienced and unreliable quarterback.
This is, in turn, the porous Oklahoma defense that we’ve seen in previous years.
Because the Sooners are what they are right now, they are tied with Kansas in the Big 12 standings.
Sam Ehlinger vs. Spencer Rattler
Experience is meaningful here because this is Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s fourth Red River Rivalry contest while it is only Rattler’s first.
This difference in experience will grow more perceptible in the context of making mistakes.
Whereas Ehlinger enjoys long streaks without throwing any interceptions and has thrown two this year to 14 touchdowns, Rattler has thrown four interceptions in two Big 12 contests.
Rattler is not just turning the ball over. But if you look at the course of his last games, you’ll notice that his turnovers are also ill-timed. He doesn’t come up big when it counts.
Sam Ehlinger’s passing numbers look down a tiny bit this year because Texas just played TCU. He and the rest of his Longhorns struggle annually against the Horned Frogs.
But even in that game he demonstrated his ceaseless potential to accrue big passing plays.
As PFF’s statistics attested last season, Ehlinger is one of the nation’s best at accomplishing so-called „big-time throws.“ He’s one of the most efficient passers overall, under pressure, and on crossing routes.
Longhorn Wide Receivers vs. Sooner Cornerbacks
Something that stands out is size. Whereas the Sooners foreground a bevy of 5-10 corners, Texas continues to enjoy stockpiling taller receivers, climaxing with the 6-4 Brennan Eagles.
The Sooner pass defense is blowing coverages, failing assignments, making other sorts of mistakes, and struggling in general. After all, they rank 126th in average opposing passer rating.
Their pass defense numbers should be substantially better given the quality of opposing quarterbacks faced.
For Kansas State, especially, Skylar Thompson completed 72 percent of his passes. This stat is telling because he is typically an inefficient quarterback. Last year, he completed 70 percent of his passes only against Bowling Green and Nicholls.
So what’s OU going to do with Texas’ bevy of receivers? Ehlinger is now three games into the season and has developed chemistry with a notable variety of wide receivers.
Former national top-50 recruit Josh Moore leads the group in receptions and yards. He has nice speed, but was recruited probably primarily for his route-running ability.
Moore typifies the comfort with executing crossing routes that Ehlinger loves to take advantage of and is amazing at doing so.
Former five-star recruit Jordan Whittington has returned to practice already and looks to be available for Saturday’s game.
Running Game Comparison
Spencer Rattler lacks support partly because Oklahoma is depleted at running back. Trey Sermon left for Ohio State and Kennedy Brooks opted out of this season.
OU has one running back who averages over 3.8 YPC, Seth McGowan, a freshman whose still modest numbers are inflated by the team’s opener against Missouri State.
In contrast, Keaontay Ingram returns for Texas, looking to accrue over five YPC again and Roschon Johnson adds quality depth with his five YPC.
Last year, Johnson stepped up big when Ingram went down to injury and he’s been huge in other games, such as when he amassed 95 yards on eight carries against Oklahoma.
As for Texas’ run-blocking, in addition to returning starters, top-level quality exists in the form of All-Big 12 left tackle Samuel Cosmi.
They’ll thrive against a Sooner run defense that ranks among the nation’s poorer units and has struggled against the only Big 12 feature back that it’s had to encounter.
The Verdict
Texas possesses the experience at quarterback, the depth and quality at running back, and the superior variety at wide receiver to gash Oklahoma’s defense.
In terms of total defense and other measurements, there’s no reason to think that Texas’ defense is worse than Oklahoma’s.
The point is that with fewer mistakes and more drive-by-drive productivity, the Longhorns will outpace the Sooners.
There is not much value to be found in the Longhorns’ moneyline, which is available at +100. We may as well just take the free points.
Best Bet: Longhorns +2 (-115) with BetOnline
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at noon ET at Cotton Bowl (FOX) in Dallas
Overrated
I cannot figure out why the Sooners are favored in this one.
Erase all preconceptions that you have of this team. This is not the star-studded Lincoln Riley offense of years past with Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray plus NFL-caliber wide receivers and strong running backs.
Rather, this offense is ridden by depletion at the skill positions plus an inexperienced and unreliable quarterback.
This is, in turn, the porous Oklahoma defense that we’ve seen in previous years.
Because the Sooners are what they are right now, they are tied with Kansas in the Big 12 standings.
Sam Ehlinger vs. Spencer Rattler
Experience is meaningful here because this is Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s fourth Red River Rivalry contest while it is only Rattler’s first.
This difference in experience will grow more perceptible in the context of making mistakes.
Whereas Ehlinger enjoys long streaks without throwing any interceptions and has thrown two this year to 14 touchdowns, Rattler has thrown four interceptions in two Big 12 contests.
Rattler is not just turning the ball over. But if you look at the course of his last games, you’ll notice that his turnovers are also ill-timed. He doesn’t come up big when it counts.
Sam Ehlinger’s passing numbers look down a tiny bit this year because Texas just played TCU. He and the rest of his Longhorns struggle annually against the Horned Frogs.
But even in that game he demonstrated his ceaseless potential to accrue big passing plays.
As PFF’s statistics attested last season, Ehlinger is one of the nation’s best at accomplishing so-called „big-time throws.“ He’s one of the most efficient passers overall, under pressure, and on crossing routes.
Longhorn Wide Receivers vs. Sooner Cornerbacks
Something that stands out is size. Whereas the Sooners foreground a bevy of 5-10 corners, Texas continues to enjoy stockpiling taller receivers, climaxing with the 6-4 Brennan Eagles.
The Sooner pass defense is blowing coverages, failing assignments, making other sorts of mistakes, and struggling in general. After all, they rank 126th in average opposing passer rating.
Their pass defense numbers should be substantially better given the quality of opposing quarterbacks faced.
For Kansas State, especially, Skylar Thompson completed 72 percent of his passes. This stat is telling because he is typically an inefficient quarterback. Last year, he completed 70 percent of his passes only against Bowling Green and Nicholls.
So what’s OU going to do with Texas’ bevy of receivers? Ehlinger is now three games into the season and has developed chemistry with a notable variety of wide receivers.
Former national top-50 recruit Josh Moore leads the group in receptions and yards. He has nice speed, but was recruited probably primarily for his route-running ability.
Moore typifies the comfort with executing crossing routes that Ehlinger loves to take advantage of and is amazing at doing so.
Former five-star recruit Jordan Whittington has returned to practice already and looks to be available for Saturday’s game.
Running Game Comparison
Spencer Rattler lacks support partly because Oklahoma is depleted at running back. Trey Sermon left for Ohio State and Kennedy Brooks opted out of this season.
OU has one running back who averages over 3.8 YPC, Seth McGowan, a freshman whose still modest numbers are inflated by the team’s opener against Missouri State.
In contrast, Keaontay Ingram returns for Texas, looking to accrue over five YPC again and Roschon Johnson adds quality depth with his five YPC.
Last year, Johnson stepped up big when Ingram went down to injury and he’s been huge in other games, such as when he amassed 95 yards on eight carries against Oklahoma.
As for Texas’ run-blocking, in addition to returning starters, top-level quality exists in the form of All-Big 12 left tackle Samuel Cosmi.
They’ll thrive against a Sooner run defense that ranks among the nation’s poorer units and has struggled against the only Big 12 feature back that it’s had to encounter.
The Verdict
Texas possesses the experience at quarterback, the depth and quality at running back, and the superior variety at wide receiver to gash Oklahoma’s defense.
In terms of total defense and other measurements, there’s no reason to think that Texas’ defense is worse than Oklahoma’s.
The point is that with fewer mistakes and more drive-by-drive productivity, the Longhorns will outpace the Sooners.
There is not much value to be found in the Longhorns’ moneyline, which is available at +100. We may as well just take the free points.
Best Bet: Longhorns +2 (-115) with BetOnline
