Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M: Texas Bowl Picks and Game Predictions
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State
Friday, December 27, 2019 at 6:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) in NRG Stadium in Houston
Oklahoma State’s Quarterback Situation
Initial starting quarterback Spencer Sanders last played on November 16 against Kansas.
Injury befell him in that game and he missed the rest of the regular season to have his thumb operated on.
Taking his place was Dru Brown, whose performance could, at best, be described as modest and mediocre.
Brown threw more than 10 times in two games — his last two of the regular season — and averaged less than 10 yards per completion in those two games (against West Virginia and Oklahoma).
Averaging fewer than 10 yards per completion would pit Brown nation-wide towards the very bottom in the category.
While Brown is still expected to see the field, Sanders has been declared to return.
Sanders brings more downfield passing confidence although he’s prone to throwing interceptions, of which he’s thrown 11 in 10 games.
His late-game antics in the Homecoming game — which is a huge deal at Oklahoma State — anyhow make him hard to trust in a big game.
What he does bring is more of a running threat. He accrued over 50 yards on the ground in six different games and possesses that additional dimension which Brown lacks.
Oklahoma State Receiver Situation
Still, Sanders is definitely held back by the injury to top receiver Tylan Wallace.
Despite having missed all of November and December, Wallace still leads the team with 53 receptions and 903 yards.
In second place is Dillon Stoner with 49 receptions and 598 yards.
Although he’s forced into the role, he isn’t so much the natural big-play threat as he lacks the physical talent and athleticism that Wallace possessed.
Before Wallace went down, Stoner had mustered 25 receptions for 232 yards in eight games and that’s with opposing defensive backs focusing on Wallace.
With Stoner the star of the receiving crew, there’s still only one other Cowboy receiver with more than 300 yards on the season and one with over 20 receptions.
Texas A&M Defense
Unfortunately for the Aggies’ statistics, they had to contend with loaded Alabama and LSU squads.
Against the rest of SEC competition, they allowed more than 20 points three times — in an off day against Arkansas, a blowout win against Mississippi State, and a loss to Auburn whom they held to 299 yards.
Texas A&M faced multiple offenses who vaguely resemble Oklahoma State in their reliance on a dual-threat quarterback and on a ground attack that far exceeds their passing capabilities.
Auburn’s Bo Nix, Mississippi State’s Garrett Shrader, and Ole Miss’s John Rhys Plumlee all resemble Sanders characteristically and performed vastly worse against the Aggies relative to their season norms.
Collectively, Texas A&M ranks 30th in opposing passer rating.
Chuba Hubbard versus Aggies’ Run Defense
The All-American running back Hubbard will be Oklahoma State’s best chance for offensive success against Texas A&M.
A&M has already contended with some of the nation’s best running backs, holding Clemson’s Travis Etienne to 53 yards, Alabama’s Najee Harris to .2 YPC below his season average, and Georgia’s D’Andre Swift to .8 below his season average.
While the team misses its star defensive tackle, it still possesses significant quality at defensive tackle with the likes of Jayden Peevy and won’t face as much of a challenge from a Cowboy offensive line that metrics show to be mediocre while facing Big 12 competition.
Hubbard can inevitably sustain some Cowboy drives with his robust skill set. But he isn’t going to really threaten the Aggies’ defense.
Aggies Offense vs Cowboys Defense
The Aggies excel at controlling clock. They rank 13th in time of possession per game and will succeed in this respect against a Cowboy defense that struggles more than most to get opposing offenses off the field.
One key for Texas A&M to sustain drives will be in third-and-short situations. Its offensive line excels in them as evidenced by its ranking 24th in power success rate.
Pound-for-pound, Oklahoma State’s defensive line cannot remotely measure up with Aggie run-blockers. The weight difference is immense and extends across the trenches.
This size disparity makes sense as the Pokes want more mobile defensive linemen who can rush the passer in a pass-heavy conference while the Aggies want meat up front to contend with extremely strong SEC defensive lines.
Isaiah Spiller averages 5.6 YPC this season and this will be another game where he accrues over 20 carries.
Quarterback Kellen Mond is also a threat to run. He isn’t a big playmaker in general, though.
In the passing game he averages only seven yards per pass attempt. He misses having a high-quality tight end as he did last year and is very reliant on Jhamon Ausbon, who leads the team with 862 yards on a modest 13.3 YPC.
A key issue for Mond is staying upright. Texas A&M ranks 93rd in rate of sacks allowed as protecting the quarterback has been a repeated issue.
Under OK State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, blitzes comes even when it seems like they won’t and anybody can rush the quarterback.
Cowboy players’ adjustment to Knowles’ concepts explains why the team went from regularly allowing over 30 points per game to allowing 22.8 points per game in the last five games of the season.
Verdict
Oklahoma State will be one-dimensional on offense, leaning on Hubbard to contend with a steadfast Aggie run defense.
On the other side, Texas A&M will control the clock with its ground game and make modest gains against a conspicuously improved Cowboy defense.
Feel free to parlay the Aggies’ ML with the under.
Best Bet: Under 54 (-105) with Heritage
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State
Friday, December 27, 2019 at 6:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) in NRG Stadium in Houston
Oklahoma State’s Quarterback Situation
Initial starting quarterback Spencer Sanders last played on November 16 against Kansas.
Injury befell him in that game and he missed the rest of the regular season to have his thumb operated on.
Taking his place was Dru Brown, whose performance could, at best, be described as modest and mediocre.
Brown threw more than 10 times in two games — his last two of the regular season — and averaged less than 10 yards per completion in those two games (against West Virginia and Oklahoma).
Averaging fewer than 10 yards per completion would pit Brown nation-wide towards the very bottom in the category.
While Brown is still expected to see the field, Sanders has been declared to return.
Sanders brings more downfield passing confidence although he’s prone to throwing interceptions, of which he’s thrown 11 in 10 games.
His late-game antics in the Homecoming game — which is a huge deal at Oklahoma State — anyhow make him hard to trust in a big game.
What he does bring is more of a running threat. He accrued over 50 yards on the ground in six different games and possesses that additional dimension which Brown lacks.
Oklahoma State Receiver Situation
Still, Sanders is definitely held back by the injury to top receiver Tylan Wallace.
Despite having missed all of November and December, Wallace still leads the team with 53 receptions and 903 yards.
In second place is Dillon Stoner with 49 receptions and 598 yards.
Although he’s forced into the role, he isn’t so much the natural big-play threat as he lacks the physical talent and athleticism that Wallace possessed.
Before Wallace went down, Stoner had mustered 25 receptions for 232 yards in eight games and that’s with opposing defensive backs focusing on Wallace.
With Stoner the star of the receiving crew, there’s still only one other Cowboy receiver with more than 300 yards on the season and one with over 20 receptions.
Texas A&M Defense
Unfortunately for the Aggies’ statistics, they had to contend with loaded Alabama and LSU squads.
Against the rest of SEC competition, they allowed more than 20 points three times — in an off day against Arkansas, a blowout win against Mississippi State, and a loss to Auburn whom they held to 299 yards.
Texas A&M faced multiple offenses who vaguely resemble Oklahoma State in their reliance on a dual-threat quarterback and on a ground attack that far exceeds their passing capabilities.
Auburn’s Bo Nix, Mississippi State’s Garrett Shrader, and Ole Miss’s John Rhys Plumlee all resemble Sanders characteristically and performed vastly worse against the Aggies relative to their season norms.
Collectively, Texas A&M ranks 30th in opposing passer rating.
Chuba Hubbard versus Aggies’ Run Defense
The All-American running back Hubbard will be Oklahoma State’s best chance for offensive success against Texas A&M.
A&M has already contended with some of the nation’s best running backs, holding Clemson’s Travis Etienne to 53 yards, Alabama’s Najee Harris to .2 YPC below his season average, and Georgia’s D’Andre Swift to .8 below his season average.
While the team misses its star defensive tackle, it still possesses significant quality at defensive tackle with the likes of Jayden Peevy and won’t face as much of a challenge from a Cowboy offensive line that metrics show to be mediocre while facing Big 12 competition.
Hubbard can inevitably sustain some Cowboy drives with his robust skill set. But he isn’t going to really threaten the Aggies’ defense.
Aggies Offense vs Cowboys Defense
The Aggies excel at controlling clock. They rank 13th in time of possession per game and will succeed in this respect against a Cowboy defense that struggles more than most to get opposing offenses off the field.
One key for Texas A&M to sustain drives will be in third-and-short situations. Its offensive line excels in them as evidenced by its ranking 24th in power success rate.
Pound-for-pound, Oklahoma State’s defensive line cannot remotely measure up with Aggie run-blockers. The weight difference is immense and extends across the trenches.
This size disparity makes sense as the Pokes want more mobile defensive linemen who can rush the passer in a pass-heavy conference while the Aggies want meat up front to contend with extremely strong SEC defensive lines.
Isaiah Spiller averages 5.6 YPC this season and this will be another game where he accrues over 20 carries.
Quarterback Kellen Mond is also a threat to run. He isn’t a big playmaker in general, though.
In the passing game he averages only seven yards per pass attempt. He misses having a high-quality tight end as he did last year and is very reliant on Jhamon Ausbon, who leads the team with 862 yards on a modest 13.3 YPC.
A key issue for Mond is staying upright. Texas A&M ranks 93rd in rate of sacks allowed as protecting the quarterback has been a repeated issue.
Under OK State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, blitzes comes even when it seems like they won’t and anybody can rush the quarterback.
Cowboy players’ adjustment to Knowles’ concepts explains why the team went from regularly allowing over 30 points per game to allowing 22.8 points per game in the last five games of the season.
Verdict
Oklahoma State will be one-dimensional on offense, leaning on Hubbard to contend with a steadfast Aggie run defense.
On the other side, Texas A&M will control the clock with its ground game and make modest gains against a conspicuously improved Cowboy defense.
Feel free to parlay the Aggies’ ML with the under.
Best Bet: Under 54 (-105) with Heritage
