Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: NCAAF Week 10 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (FOX) at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Kansas State Offense
Overall, Kansas State’s offense is pedestrian.
Its season-long offensive numbers are skewed essentially by the fact that it plays in the Big 12 where playing good defense isn’t popular.
But its pedestrian quality is increasingly transparent with Will Howard starting at quarterback. Howard is a freshman who was not intended to start.
Instead, he’s filling in for the injured Skylar Thompson.
I don’t want to imply that, with Thompson, K-State’s pass attack was particularly dangerous.
Howard, though, drops the quality level of the Wildcats’ passing game to another level of bad.
For starters, he makes mistakes, which is something that Thompson was less prone to doing.
Whereas Thompson had zero interceptions on the season, Howard has thrown four.
Moreover, Howard’s inefficiency is reflected in the fact that he’s completing only 55.9 percent of his passes.
Again, K-State’s recent scoring average is inflated because it got to face a bottom-feeder Kansas squad.
But its output against defensive-minded TCU and its output against West Virginia is expressive of its offensive ineptitude. Against those two teams, the Wildcats mustered a combined total of 31 points.
K-State Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
Recently, Oklahoma State has shed its reputation for poor defense. The Cowboys can thank defensive coordinator Jim Knowles for this transformation.
Before Knowles arrived, the Poke defense were allowing an average of well over 30 points.
It has steadily improved in this respect thanks to playing collectively better in general under his 4-2-5 scheme and thanks to the ascension of individual defenders to All-Big 12 status.
One of those individual defenders is safety Kolby Harvell-Peel. He is known for being strong and stout against the run.
HIs weakness is cited as a lack of fluidity and lower-quality hip movement against speedier wide receivers. But this weakness will be irrelevant in Saturday’s contest.
He matches up perfectly with a Kansas-State offense that wants to hurt him with tight ends. One of K-State’s leading pass-catchers is a tight end.
K-State must rely all the more on the tight end position with an inefficient and inaccurate quarterback who would like to locate bigger targets in order to reduce his margin of error in terms of accuracy.
Look for OK State’s All-Big 12 first-teamer at the safety position to limit this preferred strength of K-State’s offense.
This year, the Pokes are allowing 17.8 points per game.
They owe their success in scoring defense largely to their ability against opposing rush attacks.
Right now, they allow only 3.4 YPC partly due to guys like Harvell-Peel.
OK State’s defensive success against the run is highly relevant against a K-State offense that characteristically likes to run the ball and especially needs to do so well in order to help its lowly quarterback and uninspiring pass attack.
The Wildcats own the nation’s 40th-highest run percentage. So when they can’t run the ball well, then they aren’t left with other options for productivity.
OK State Offense Trend
The “over” is 2-0 in Oklahoma State games where the team passes for more than 250 yards.
Conversely, the “under” is 3-0 in Oklahoma State games where it fails to pass for more than 250 yards.
So whether we like the Pokes or the “under” is very much a matter of whether we like their pass attack.
OK State Offense vs. K-State Defense
Oklahoma State’s offensive line has struggled, conspicuously, since its opener against lowly Tulsa.
Because it is struggling to open up running lanes, even the team’s elite running back is struggling. So far, Chuba Hubbard is averaging only 4.6 YPC.
The run game’s struggles make the team more depend on its pass attack, which is led by Spencer Sanders.
Sanders is heavily dependent on Tylan Wallace. He’s the team’s only wide receiver who has more than 154 receiving yards. He has 588. Put differently, he has more receiving yards than the rest of his fellow wide receivers do combined.
Essentially, we predict this game by predicting Wallace’s performance.
Likewise, we predict this game by determining whether K-State can field its top cornerback, AJ Parker.
The All-Big 12 veteran's absence was clearly deleterious to the Wildcat pass defense as it got gashed by West Virginia’s passing game, which was led by a transfer from Bowling Green, en route to a 37-point output.
There is a significant drop-off in the Wildcat secondary after Parker as there is in the OK State receiving crew after Wallace.
But after reading what team doctors have said, it seems like AJ Parker’s injury is not serious, like he should be fit sooner rather than later.
The Verdict
You’ll want to track the status of AJ Parker.
I think he’ll play, in which case he limits OK State’s only weapon at wide receiver.
Hubbard is already struggling behind his poor offensive line.
In turn, Kansas State’s pedestrian offense will struggle to find a way to move the ball against the Cowboys’ vastly improved, well-schemed, and stout defense.
If Parker is a no-go, be sure to bet on Oklahoma State to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Under 47 at -110 with Bookmaker
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (FOX) at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Kansas State Offense
Overall, Kansas State’s offense is pedestrian.
Its season-long offensive numbers are skewed essentially by the fact that it plays in the Big 12 where playing good defense isn’t popular.
But its pedestrian quality is increasingly transparent with Will Howard starting at quarterback. Howard is a freshman who was not intended to start.
Instead, he’s filling in for the injured Skylar Thompson.
I don’t want to imply that, with Thompson, K-State’s pass attack was particularly dangerous.
Howard, though, drops the quality level of the Wildcats’ passing game to another level of bad.
For starters, he makes mistakes, which is something that Thompson was less prone to doing.
Whereas Thompson had zero interceptions on the season, Howard has thrown four.
Moreover, Howard’s inefficiency is reflected in the fact that he’s completing only 55.9 percent of his passes.
Again, K-State’s recent scoring average is inflated because it got to face a bottom-feeder Kansas squad.
But its output against defensive-minded TCU and its output against West Virginia is expressive of its offensive ineptitude. Against those two teams, the Wildcats mustered a combined total of 31 points.
K-State Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
Recently, Oklahoma State has shed its reputation for poor defense. The Cowboys can thank defensive coordinator Jim Knowles for this transformation.
Before Knowles arrived, the Poke defense were allowing an average of well over 30 points.
It has steadily improved in this respect thanks to playing collectively better in general under his 4-2-5 scheme and thanks to the ascension of individual defenders to All-Big 12 status.
One of those individual defenders is safety Kolby Harvell-Peel. He is known for being strong and stout against the run.
HIs weakness is cited as a lack of fluidity and lower-quality hip movement against speedier wide receivers. But this weakness will be irrelevant in Saturday’s contest.
He matches up perfectly with a Kansas-State offense that wants to hurt him with tight ends. One of K-State’s leading pass-catchers is a tight end.
K-State must rely all the more on the tight end position with an inefficient and inaccurate quarterback who would like to locate bigger targets in order to reduce his margin of error in terms of accuracy.
Look for OK State’s All-Big 12 first-teamer at the safety position to limit this preferred strength of K-State’s offense.
This year, the Pokes are allowing 17.8 points per game.
They owe their success in scoring defense largely to their ability against opposing rush attacks.
Right now, they allow only 3.4 YPC partly due to guys like Harvell-Peel.
OK State’s defensive success against the run is highly relevant against a K-State offense that characteristically likes to run the ball and especially needs to do so well in order to help its lowly quarterback and uninspiring pass attack.
The Wildcats own the nation’s 40th-highest run percentage. So when they can’t run the ball well, then they aren’t left with other options for productivity.
OK State Offense Trend
The “over” is 2-0 in Oklahoma State games where the team passes for more than 250 yards.
Conversely, the “under” is 3-0 in Oklahoma State games where it fails to pass for more than 250 yards.
So whether we like the Pokes or the “under” is very much a matter of whether we like their pass attack.
OK State Offense vs. K-State Defense
Oklahoma State’s offensive line has struggled, conspicuously, since its opener against lowly Tulsa.
Because it is struggling to open up running lanes, even the team’s elite running back is struggling. So far, Chuba Hubbard is averaging only 4.6 YPC.
The run game’s struggles make the team more depend on its pass attack, which is led by Spencer Sanders.
Sanders is heavily dependent on Tylan Wallace. He’s the team’s only wide receiver who has more than 154 receiving yards. He has 588. Put differently, he has more receiving yards than the rest of his fellow wide receivers do combined.
Essentially, we predict this game by predicting Wallace’s performance.
Likewise, we predict this game by determining whether K-State can field its top cornerback, AJ Parker.
The All-Big 12 veteran's absence was clearly deleterious to the Wildcat pass defense as it got gashed by West Virginia’s passing game, which was led by a transfer from Bowling Green, en route to a 37-point output.
There is a significant drop-off in the Wildcat secondary after Parker as there is in the OK State receiving crew after Wallace.
But after reading what team doctors have said, it seems like AJ Parker’s injury is not serious, like he should be fit sooner rather than later.
The Verdict
You’ll want to track the status of AJ Parker.
I think he’ll play, in which case he limits OK State’s only weapon at wide receiver.
Hubbard is already struggling behind his poor offensive line.
In turn, Kansas State’s pedestrian offense will struggle to find a way to move the ball against the Cowboys’ vastly improved, well-schemed, and stout defense.
If Parker is a no-go, be sure to bet on Oklahoma State to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Under 47 at -110 with Bookmaker
