Aztecs Will Rise Again in Frisco Bowl Against Ohio
Frisco Bowl: Ohio (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs San Diego State (7-5 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Wednesday, Dec. 19, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
NCAAF Pick: Aztecs ATS and ML
San Diego State is facing the prospect of ending its season on a four-game losing streak. Alternatively, it can call its season successful by ending it with a win. Ohio seeks to win its first game against a respectable non-conference opponent.
How They Got Here
San Diego State finished fourth in the Mountain West’s West division. It beat eventual conference champ Boise State, but also lost to UNLV and Hawaii. Ohio narrowly missed the opportunity to play in the MAC title game despite dominating eventual runner-up Buffalo. The Aztecs have lost three in a row SU and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven. They’re 5-8 all-time in bowls. Conversely, Ohio has won and covered five of its last seven. Ohio is 3-8 all-time in bowls.
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Why Ohio Can Win/Cover
Nathan Rourke and A.J. Ouellette. The former is Ohio’s dual-threat quarterback, an efficient passer who leads the MAC in yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 22 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Ouellette is Ohio’s star running back who has run for over 1,100 yards while averaging over six yards per carry. He is top five in the MAC in yards, YPC, and rushing touchdowns. The duo is the biggest reason why Ohio has scored over 40 points in five of its last six games, only failing to cover as 24-point favorites against Akron. San Diego State’s offensive numbers are down from previous years because it no longer possesses the same quality at running back. Can the Aztecs keep pace?
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Why San Diego State Can Win/Cover
The Aztecs’ opposing passing numbers look bad because of two early season games against two Power Five teams that feature solid quarterbacks in Stanford’s K.J. Costello and Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins. Against the best quarterback in their conference, Boise State’s Brett Rypien, SDSU allowed only 170 passing yards on 41 pass attempts. They picked him off twice and gave him his worst game of the season. They also limited the Mountain West’s second-best quarterback, Marcus McMaryion to 267 passing yards, 86 of which were rather lucky because the Aztec defensive back simply slipped on the play. The Aztec run defense ranks fourth in allowing 2.8 YPC. It limited Stanford’s Bryce Love and ASU’s Eno Benjamin to under 30 yards and Boise State’s Alexander Mattison to a season-low 2.6 YPC.
All four of Ohio's losses came against top-50 defenses— Cincy, Miami, Northern Illinois, and Virginia. They did beat a Buffalo team that mailed it in while looking to clinch the MAC East in a much easier game against Bowling Green the following week. SDSU ranks 20th defensively.
Common Opponents/Series History
San Diego State faced a MAC opponent, Eastern Michigan, and escaped with a 23-20 overtime win. The week before, SDSU had upset Arizona State. So it was in let-down mode.
The Verdict
SDSU is in a strong betting spot. All three of their covers this season came as underdogs. They’ve only failed to cover once as underdogs-- in the season opener, which has historically been a bad spot for the Aztecs under long-time coach Rocky Long. Last year as well, the Aztecs were 2-0 SU and ATS as underdogs. Their last bowl win came in 2016 when they were four-point underdogs. People who like Ohio point out the discrepancy between their results towards the end of the regular season. But, San Diego State was for the most part heavily favored, except against Fresno State, against which it covered as 10-point underdogs.
Another reason that people like Ohio is because of the Aztecs’ bleak quarterback situation. Christian Chapman will start at quarterback for SDSU. He has shown promise against weaker pass defenses and Ohio ranks 91st in opposing passer rating. The Bobcats’ pass defense has been rather untested in the final stretch of the regular season, usually facing backup quarterbacks, an unmotivated Buffalo, or a Miami of Ohio team playing with a big lead. The Bobcat pass defense looked awful against unfamiliar, non-conference opponents, giving up 350 passing yards to the likes of UMass’s Andrew Ford and 439 to Howard’s Caylin Newton.
Chapman and running back Juwan Washington, who has run for over 90 yards and five YPC in five of his eight games played, will be good enough. The Aztec defense will be decisive in SDSU’s upset bid.
Frisco Bowl: Ohio (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs San Diego State (7-5 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Wednesday, Dec. 19, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
NCAAF Pick: Aztecs ATS and ML
San Diego State is facing the prospect of ending its season on a four-game losing streak. Alternatively, it can call its season successful by ending it with a win. Ohio seeks to win its first game against a respectable non-conference opponent.
How They Got Here
San Diego State finished fourth in the Mountain West’s West division. It beat eventual conference champ Boise State, but also lost to UNLV and Hawaii. Ohio narrowly missed the opportunity to play in the MAC title game despite dominating eventual runner-up Buffalo. The Aztecs have lost three in a row SU and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven. They’re 5-8 all-time in bowls. Conversely, Ohio has won and covered five of its last seven. Ohio is 3-8 all-time in bowls.
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Why Ohio Can Win/Cover
Nathan Rourke and A.J. Ouellette. The former is Ohio’s dual-threat quarterback, an efficient passer who leads the MAC in yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 22 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Ouellette is Ohio’s star running back who has run for over 1,100 yards while averaging over six yards per carry. He is top five in the MAC in yards, YPC, and rushing touchdowns. The duo is the biggest reason why Ohio has scored over 40 points in five of its last six games, only failing to cover as 24-point favorites against Akron. San Diego State’s offensive numbers are down from previous years because it no longer possesses the same quality at running back. Can the Aztecs keep pace?
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Why San Diego State Can Win/Cover
The Aztecs’ opposing passing numbers look bad because of two early season games against two Power Five teams that feature solid quarterbacks in Stanford’s K.J. Costello and Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins. Against the best quarterback in their conference, Boise State’s Brett Rypien, SDSU allowed only 170 passing yards on 41 pass attempts. They picked him off twice and gave him his worst game of the season. They also limited the Mountain West’s second-best quarterback, Marcus McMaryion to 267 passing yards, 86 of which were rather lucky because the Aztec defensive back simply slipped on the play. The Aztec run defense ranks fourth in allowing 2.8 YPC. It limited Stanford’s Bryce Love and ASU’s Eno Benjamin to under 30 yards and Boise State’s Alexander Mattison to a season-low 2.6 YPC.
All four of Ohio's losses came against top-50 defenses— Cincy, Miami, Northern Illinois, and Virginia. They did beat a Buffalo team that mailed it in while looking to clinch the MAC East in a much easier game against Bowling Green the following week. SDSU ranks 20th defensively.
Common Opponents/Series History
San Diego State faced a MAC opponent, Eastern Michigan, and escaped with a 23-20 overtime win. The week before, SDSU had upset Arizona State. So it was in let-down mode.
The Verdict
SDSU is in a strong betting spot. All three of their covers this season came as underdogs. They’ve only failed to cover once as underdogs-- in the season opener, which has historically been a bad spot for the Aztecs under long-time coach Rocky Long. Last year as well, the Aztecs were 2-0 SU and ATS as underdogs. Their last bowl win came in 2016 when they were four-point underdogs. People who like Ohio point out the discrepancy between their results towards the end of the regular season. But, San Diego State was for the most part heavily favored, except against Fresno State, against which it covered as 10-point underdogs.
Another reason that people like Ohio is because of the Aztecs’ bleak quarterback situation. Christian Chapman will start at quarterback for SDSU. He has shown promise against weaker pass defenses and Ohio ranks 91st in opposing passer rating. The Bobcats’ pass defense has been rather untested in the final stretch of the regular season, usually facing backup quarterbacks, an unmotivated Buffalo, or a Miami of Ohio team playing with a big lead. The Bobcat pass defense looked awful against unfamiliar, non-conference opponents, giving up 350 passing yards to the likes of UMass’s Andrew Ford and 439 to Howard’s Caylin Newton.
Chapman and running back Juwan Washington, who has run for over 90 yards and five YPC in five of his eight games played, will be good enough. The Aztec defense will be decisive in SDSU’s upset bid.
