Ohio State vs. Nebraska College Football Week 10 Expert Picks
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska
CJ Stroud
Yesterday, when Ohio State struggled to run the ball in several phases of its relatively sloppy affair against Penn State, the Buckeyes showed that they can rely solely on their pass attack.
They've shown this before: against Oregon, the Buckeyes ran for a relatively meager 4.1 YPC, but passed for close to 500 yards.
Similarly, Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud exceeded 300 passing yards in his team's nine-point win over Penn State.
In view of his initial inexperience, Stroud has grown tremendously during the course of this season. After throwing an interception in each of his first three games, he has thrown 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his last four.
Stroud has a huge advantage in that he has multiple NFL-ready wide receivers to throw to. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are generally regarded as future first-rounders.
Moreover, with his top-end speed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems headed in that direction. All three of those receivers lead OSU with over 550 receiving yards.
Going against a Nebraska pass rush that poses minimal threat -- the Cornhuskers rank 73rd nationally in sack rate -- Stroud will have all day to find at least one of these high-level receivers.
One may counter that the Cornhusker defense seems to rise to the occasion in its biggest games.
However, Nebraska has had the benefit, in those big games, of facing lackluster passing threats such as Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler, who lost his starting job, and Michigan State's Payton Thorne, who relies heavily on run support, and Michigan's Cade McNamara, who hadn't sniffed 300 yards before last week's game.
With Stroud and a trio of unique receiving threats, Ohio State will easily be the Nebraska secondary's toughest test this season.
Nebraska's Run Defense vs. Strong Competition
One may try to suggest that Nebraska has a nicely ranked run defense. The Cornhuskers do rank 43rd nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
However, Nebraska has failed to limit stronger ground games. For example, Michigan was able to put up 32 points on Nebraska largely because it managed to amass 204 rushing yards.
To the Cornhuskers, Oklahoma did a similar level of damage on the ground.
With two running backs who average over seven YPC, most notably big-play threat TreVeyon Henderson, OSU has the personnel to inflict similar levels of damage against the Cornhusker run defense.
Nebraska Pass Protection
A big reason why Ohio State was able to beat Penn State was its pass rush.
Buckeye pass rushers' prospects of success on Saturday could therefore be decisive.
If you stopped paying attention to Nebraska earlier in the season, you may conclude that the Cornhuskers must be toast.
However, the Cornhuskers have done a lot to improve their pass protection and the statistics show this improvement. By having quarterback Adrian Martinez improve in his identification of blitzes, by recruiting more involvement in pass protection from its running backs, by ramping up internal competition among offensive linemen and in other ways, Nebraska has strengthened its pass protection.
While the Cornhuskers are allowing a drastically lower sack rate in recent games, one may counter that they've faced statistically weaker pass rushes.
However, they've also flexed their improved ability by limiting proven pass rushers. For example, Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson has six sacks this season, but accrued none of them in his team's game against Nebraska.
Quarterback Adrian Martinez will love the extra time. Plus, he'll surely follow Penn State quarterback's Sean Clifford tactic by throwing sideline passes to counteract Ohio State's occasionally creative pressure.
Martinez is a turnover machine whose proclivity to fumble or throw an interception will lead to easy points for the Buckeyes.
His security in and outside the pocket, though, will allow him to drive his offense downfield in order to help the "over" hit.
As evident in his 291-yard, three-touchdown effort during Nebraska's 29-point performance against the Wolverines, Martinez likes to show up for big games. He's a big reason why the Cornhuskers are 3-0 ATS against top-10 teams even if he also helps explain why the Cornhuskers ultimately lost all of those games straight-up.
Regarding its run defense, Ohio State's new batch of linebackers has hardly been tested since its first two games of the season.
Nebraska has the versatility with powerful and speedy running backs and the creativity with its option game and with Martinez to challenge Ohio State's new-look defense.
The Verdict
Both offenses will score in droves against the opposing defense. Also note that the "over" is 3-0 in Ohio State road games this season.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, November 6, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska
CJ Stroud
Yesterday, when Ohio State struggled to run the ball in several phases of its relatively sloppy affair against Penn State, the Buckeyes showed that they can rely solely on their pass attack.
They've shown this before: against Oregon, the Buckeyes ran for a relatively meager 4.1 YPC, but passed for close to 500 yards.
Similarly, Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud exceeded 300 passing yards in his team's nine-point win over Penn State.
In view of his initial inexperience, Stroud has grown tremendously during the course of this season. After throwing an interception in each of his first three games, he has thrown 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his last four.
Stroud has a huge advantage in that he has multiple NFL-ready wide receivers to throw to. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are generally regarded as future first-rounders.
Moreover, with his top-end speed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems headed in that direction. All three of those receivers lead OSU with over 550 receiving yards.
Going against a Nebraska pass rush that poses minimal threat -- the Cornhuskers rank 73rd nationally in sack rate -- Stroud will have all day to find at least one of these high-level receivers.
One may counter that the Cornhusker defense seems to rise to the occasion in its biggest games.
However, Nebraska has had the benefit, in those big games, of facing lackluster passing threats such as Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler, who lost his starting job, and Michigan State's Payton Thorne, who relies heavily on run support, and Michigan's Cade McNamara, who hadn't sniffed 300 yards before last week's game.
With Stroud and a trio of unique receiving threats, Ohio State will easily be the Nebraska secondary's toughest test this season.
Nebraska's Run Defense vs. Strong Competition
One may try to suggest that Nebraska has a nicely ranked run defense. The Cornhuskers do rank 43rd nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
However, Nebraska has failed to limit stronger ground games. For example, Michigan was able to put up 32 points on Nebraska largely because it managed to amass 204 rushing yards.
To the Cornhuskers, Oklahoma did a similar level of damage on the ground.
With two running backs who average over seven YPC, most notably big-play threat TreVeyon Henderson, OSU has the personnel to inflict similar levels of damage against the Cornhusker run defense.
Nebraska Pass Protection
A big reason why Ohio State was able to beat Penn State was its pass rush.
Buckeye pass rushers' prospects of success on Saturday could therefore be decisive.
If you stopped paying attention to Nebraska earlier in the season, you may conclude that the Cornhuskers must be toast.
However, the Cornhuskers have done a lot to improve their pass protection and the statistics show this improvement. By having quarterback Adrian Martinez improve in his identification of blitzes, by recruiting more involvement in pass protection from its running backs, by ramping up internal competition among offensive linemen and in other ways, Nebraska has strengthened its pass protection.
While the Cornhuskers are allowing a drastically lower sack rate in recent games, one may counter that they've faced statistically weaker pass rushes.
However, they've also flexed their improved ability by limiting proven pass rushers. For example, Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson has six sacks this season, but accrued none of them in his team's game against Nebraska.
Quarterback Adrian Martinez will love the extra time. Plus, he'll surely follow Penn State quarterback's Sean Clifford tactic by throwing sideline passes to counteract Ohio State's occasionally creative pressure.
Martinez is a turnover machine whose proclivity to fumble or throw an interception will lead to easy points for the Buckeyes.
His security in and outside the pocket, though, will allow him to drive his offense downfield in order to help the "over" hit.
As evident in his 291-yard, three-touchdown effort during Nebraska's 29-point performance against the Wolverines, Martinez likes to show up for big games. He's a big reason why the Cornhuskers are 3-0 ATS against top-10 teams even if he also helps explain why the Cornhuskers ultimately lost all of those games straight-up.
Regarding its run defense, Ohio State's new batch of linebackers has hardly been tested since its first two games of the season.
Nebraska has the versatility with powerful and speedy running backs and the creativity with its option game and with Martinez to challenge Ohio State's new-look defense.
The Verdict
Both offenses will score in droves against the opposing defense. Also note that the "over" is 3-0 in Ohio State road games this season.
Best Bet: Over 63.5 at -115 with BetOnline
