Ohio State vs. Indiana College Football Week 8 Expert Picks
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
Look-Ahead Game?
I think the best argument that can be made for Indiana covering the spread on Saturday is the following: Ohio State is a massive favorite and surely expects to beat Indiana rather easily.
The argument continues: the Buckeyes will especially be complacent because they will be looking ahead to their next opponent, a high-profile Penn State team that they are always amped to face. Quite on the contrary to Indiana, Penn State is not a team that Ohio State can easily expect to defeat.
This argument is too easy because there are so many similar let-down situations and betting would be very easy if it sufficed to identify them.
However, it does not suffice to simply identify let-down situations and to bet accordingly because some teams handle these situations better than others.
To see if Ohio State is one of those teams, we should consider its recent history.
Last year, the Buckeyes covered the spread against Nebraska before facing Penn State.
Two years ago, the Buckeyes demolished Northwestern before facing 13th-ranked Wisconsin.
Later in the same season, they easily covered against Rutgers before facing eighth-ranked Penn State.
The list continues. There is therefore no empirical basis for claiming that Ohio State will struggle to cover the spread on Saturday by proposing that it will be unfocused and looking ahead to its next game against Penn State.
Trend and Explanation
The beginning of Ohio State's regular season was rather bumpy.
This beginning featured a shaky and nervy start against Minnesota, a loss to Oregon, and a bad-looking game against Tulsa.
There are many reasons for this shaky start such as redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Stroud's youth, Stroud's injury problems, and the entire Buckeye defense needing to get things sorted out.
Since that game against Tulsa, the Buckeyes have improved in multiple key respects, making them a better team than the odds are implying, for which reason they currently enjoy a 3-0 ATS win streak.
Tougher and More Complicated
On defense, Ohio State is tougher and more complicated.
The Buckeye defense is tougher to figure out because it is doing a better job of mixing up looks and creating confusion for the opposing offense both pre- and post-snap.
In terms of personnel, players on all three levels of the defense are asserting themselves and playing in a more unified manner.
One specific defender worth noting is defensive tackle Tyleik Williams. He accrued three of his four sacks and his one forced fumble this season during the Buckeyes' current three-game cover streak.
He helps explain why the Buckeyes rank fifth-nationally in terms of sack rate in the last three games.
With linebackers like sophomore Cody Simon developing and running more purposefully to the ball, the Buckeye run defense has seen a similar improvement.
Hoosier Offense
Ohio State's stronger front seven will perplex a Hoosier offensive line that has struggled all season to help its offense because it lacks depth and quality.
In terms of rush attack, Indiana's ranks 100th or worse in multiple categories like rushing yards per game and YPC.
The Hoosiers rely heavily on Stephen Carr to carry the ball. But he's only exceeded 3.3 YPC this season against Western Kentucky and Idaho. Now he faces a more well-tuned Buckeye defense.
Lack of offensive balance is the last thing that quarterback Michael Penix Jr. needs.
It is often said a running back is a quarterback's best friend because a good run game can take pressure off the quarterback.
Because of how bad Penix Jr. is this season, I don't think it would even help him much if Indiana's rush attack were vastly stronger than it is.
Since rehabbing his knee during the offseason, Penix Jr. has failed to develop comfort as a passer.
This season, he is completing 53.7 percent of his passes and has thrown seven interceptions to four touchdowns. At 101.9, his passer rating is nearly 35 points lower than it was last season.
Buckeye Offense
Between Stroud, who has thrown 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his past two games and regularly amasses over 300 or 400 yards, and a Buckeye ground game that ranks 99 spots ahead of Indiana's in terms of YPC, the Buckeyes have too much firepower.
They will exceed the 30-point totals that Iowa and Cincinnati offenses produced, despite Iowa's utter mediocrity at the quarterback position and Cincinnati's sleepwalking in the first-half.
With two future NFL stars at wide receiver helping Stroud, the Buckeyes will get plenty of chances to run up the score against Indiana's defense whether it continues or not to miss its top cornerback, Tiawan Mullen, whose leg injury has kept him out since September 25.
The Verdict
Indiana has repeatedly shown that it lacks the firepower to keep up with top teams. This year, the Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS as underdogs.
Expect Ohio State to continue rolling with its prolific passing and rushing attacks while Indiana struggles with Penix Jr. and its lack of run-blocking to get anything going offensively especially against Ohio State's very talented and finally gelling and developing defense.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -19.5 at -116 with BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
Look-Ahead Game?
I think the best argument that can be made for Indiana covering the spread on Saturday is the following: Ohio State is a massive favorite and surely expects to beat Indiana rather easily.
The argument continues: the Buckeyes will especially be complacent because they will be looking ahead to their next opponent, a high-profile Penn State team that they are always amped to face. Quite on the contrary to Indiana, Penn State is not a team that Ohio State can easily expect to defeat.
This argument is too easy because there are so many similar let-down situations and betting would be very easy if it sufficed to identify them.
However, it does not suffice to simply identify let-down situations and to bet accordingly because some teams handle these situations better than others.
To see if Ohio State is one of those teams, we should consider its recent history.
Last year, the Buckeyes covered the spread against Nebraska before facing Penn State.
Two years ago, the Buckeyes demolished Northwestern before facing 13th-ranked Wisconsin.
Later in the same season, they easily covered against Rutgers before facing eighth-ranked Penn State.
The list continues. There is therefore no empirical basis for claiming that Ohio State will struggle to cover the spread on Saturday by proposing that it will be unfocused and looking ahead to its next game against Penn State.
Trend and Explanation
The beginning of Ohio State's regular season was rather bumpy.
This beginning featured a shaky and nervy start against Minnesota, a loss to Oregon, and a bad-looking game against Tulsa.
There are many reasons for this shaky start such as redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Stroud's youth, Stroud's injury problems, and the entire Buckeye defense needing to get things sorted out.
Since that game against Tulsa, the Buckeyes have improved in multiple key respects, making them a better team than the odds are implying, for which reason they currently enjoy a 3-0 ATS win streak.
Tougher and More Complicated
On defense, Ohio State is tougher and more complicated.
The Buckeye defense is tougher to figure out because it is doing a better job of mixing up looks and creating confusion for the opposing offense both pre- and post-snap.
In terms of personnel, players on all three levels of the defense are asserting themselves and playing in a more unified manner.
One specific defender worth noting is defensive tackle Tyleik Williams. He accrued three of his four sacks and his one forced fumble this season during the Buckeyes' current three-game cover streak.
He helps explain why the Buckeyes rank fifth-nationally in terms of sack rate in the last three games.
With linebackers like sophomore Cody Simon developing and running more purposefully to the ball, the Buckeye run defense has seen a similar improvement.
Hoosier Offense
Ohio State's stronger front seven will perplex a Hoosier offensive line that has struggled all season to help its offense because it lacks depth and quality.
In terms of rush attack, Indiana's ranks 100th or worse in multiple categories like rushing yards per game and YPC.
The Hoosiers rely heavily on Stephen Carr to carry the ball. But he's only exceeded 3.3 YPC this season against Western Kentucky and Idaho. Now he faces a more well-tuned Buckeye defense.
Lack of offensive balance is the last thing that quarterback Michael Penix Jr. needs.
It is often said a running back is a quarterback's best friend because a good run game can take pressure off the quarterback.
Because of how bad Penix Jr. is this season, I don't think it would even help him much if Indiana's rush attack were vastly stronger than it is.
Since rehabbing his knee during the offseason, Penix Jr. has failed to develop comfort as a passer.
This season, he is completing 53.7 percent of his passes and has thrown seven interceptions to four touchdowns. At 101.9, his passer rating is nearly 35 points lower than it was last season.
Buckeye Offense
Between Stroud, who has thrown 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his past two games and regularly amasses over 300 or 400 yards, and a Buckeye ground game that ranks 99 spots ahead of Indiana's in terms of YPC, the Buckeyes have too much firepower.
They will exceed the 30-point totals that Iowa and Cincinnati offenses produced, despite Iowa's utter mediocrity at the quarterback position and Cincinnati's sleepwalking in the first-half.
With two future NFL stars at wide receiver helping Stroud, the Buckeyes will get plenty of chances to run up the score against Indiana's defense whether it continues or not to miss its top cornerback, Tiawan Mullen, whose leg injury has kept him out since September 25.
The Verdict
Indiana has repeatedly shown that it lacks the firepower to keep up with top teams. This year, the Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS as underdogs.
Expect Ohio State to continue rolling with its prolific passing and rushing attacks while Indiana struggles with Penix Jr. and its lack of run-blocking to get anything going offensively especially against Ohio State's very talented and finally gelling and developing defense.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -19.5 at -116 with BetOnline
