Ohio State / Michigan Discussion

Few notes...

Roman Wilson injury on the targeting that was picked up was highly precautionary. They've basically played two straight weeks of offense without him.

JJ injury was definitely a big factor Saturday. We'll monitor this week. When he wasn't allowed to run, Maryland picked up on that and the early running holes locked up. The injury is his knee. Apparently a shoulder injury as well, but that's been going on for several weeks. The knee is the concern for planting/throwing and obviously running.

The OL injuries were massive. Henderson was also precautionary leaving him home. They HAVE to have him healthy. The biggest mistake they made strategically this year was not getting the best 5 guys out there. They have 8-10 starters but have never featured the correct combos. Massive failure to be honest.

Playbook has been very vanilla all year. They haven't needed much. Their is another reason for this, but stating that right now will detail the thread.

Nothing like "The Game". This one has a early 1990s feel to it in some ways and if JJ injury doesn't improve some also has a bad 2007 vibe to myself.

2006
2022
2023


All unbeaten matchups.

1-1 in those.
 
Running yardage winner is usually the indicator of the winner.

Both run defenses are very good. This will be interesting in that regard.
 
The total is set at 46, probably for good reason.

This has been an 'over' series for several years now. This is different though, with OSU not having a dynamic at QB like they have had the past 15 years.
 
This is a game where not having Harbaugh could be the difference.
Absolutely.

Sherrone will be a helluva coach. Heck, he might be coach here next year if Jim decides not to sign the contract. With that being said, he was already stretching thin coaching OL and OC. Now, he has 3 responsibilities. Trust me in saying that many of us would prefer a different acting HC so he could concentrate on his priorities. Nothing against him, at all. That's just a lot of responsibility.
 
Few notes...

Roman Wilson injury on the targeting that was picked up was highly precautionary. They've basically played two straight weeks of offense without him.

JJ injury was definitely a big factor Saturday. We'll monitor this week. When he wasn't allowed to run, Maryland picked up on that and the early running holes locked up. The injury is his knee. Apparently a shoulder injury as well, but that's been going on for several weeks. The knee is the concern for planting/throwing and obviously running.

The OL injuries were massive. Henderson was also precautionary leaving him home. They HAVE to have him healthy. The biggest mistake they made strategically this year was not getting the best 5 guys out there. They have 8-10 starters but have never featured the correct combos. Massive failure to be honest.

Playbook has been very vanilla all year. They haven't needed much. Their is another reason for this, but stating that right now will detail the thread.

Nothing like "The Game". This one has a early 1990s feel to it in some ways and if JJ injury doesn't improve some also has a bad 2007 vibe to myself.

2006
2022
2023


All unbeaten matchups.

1-1 in those.
All unbeaten matchup in 1973. 10-10 tie

There was a fifth year as well but I haven't figured it out what year...
 
All unbeaten matchup in 1973. 10-10 tie

There was a fifth year as well but I haven't figured it out what year...
Yeah, I knew that. I saw a talking point and thought maybe I was crazy.

Maybe it's the 12 games aspect.
 
Yeah, I knew that. I saw a talking point and thought maybe I was crazy.

Maybe it's the 12 games aspect.
1970 was the other year they were both undefeated. 20-9 OSU win

1970 20-9 OSU
1973 10-10 tie
2006 42-39 OSU
2022 45-23 TTUN
2023??
 
JJ health + the OL health will determine this b

If the knee improved, they'll pass more than you think.

Otherwise, rock fight.
Even if they throw more.....A) How successful will they be % wise.....and B) Will they get chunk plays?.....I think the answers are 55-60% completions and maybe a couple chunk plays.....Its not like Michigan has top notch wideouts that can easily win jump balls or stretch the field.....So some dump offs and quick hitters probably....especially if they get in 3rd & 4 or more.....gonna be tough sledding (for both teams I believe all that above to be true).....to be pretty equal other than Harrison being the best player on field.....but if McCord locks in on him and forces the ball he's gonna regret it.....sometimes lopsided talent works against you.....
 
The team with the most rushing yards has won the last 22 games in this series.
Thinking back on a few of these...

The 2 point conversion year. Hoke went for 2 to win, and I loved the idea. Michigan couldn't stop Hyde (227). That was simply a shootout. Devin had 451 passing.

2021 Michigan passed 3 times in the 2h and just kept running the same play basically. That was the beauty of that one.

1995 will always be the epitomy of rushing wins though, 313 for Timmy B versus probably the best OSU team ever.
 
Thinking back on a few of these...

The 2 point conversion year. Hoke went for 2 to win, and I loved the idea. Michigan couldn't stop Hyde (227). That was simply a shootout. Devin had 451 passing.

2021 Michigan passed 3 times in the 2h and just kept running the same play basically. That was the beauty of that one.

1995 will always be the epitomy of rushing wins though, 313 for Timmy B versus probably the best OSU team ever.
JT and Zeke went for 360 on the ground in 2015. Not as dramatic as Tim B. but a nice 300 yard edge. I recall a Beanie Wells stomping in the Big House too in a light rain.
 
I watched the video in slow-mo, can't see the ball, but the side of his ankle is completely touching the ground when he may still be possessing the ball.
Have the game on DVR. Although his shoe is on it's side another angle shows his ankle not touching. All a mute point as the referee declared "runners progress stopped" before Stroud lost the ball off of Okie's knee. That call prevents a review. Now, after watching the clip, does that look like a stopped progress call?
 
Have the game on DVR. Although his shoe is on it's side another angle shows his ankle not touching. All a mute point as the referee declared "runners progress stopped" before Stroud lost the ball off of Okie's knee. That call prevents a review. Now, after watching the clip, does that look like a stopped progress call?

"progress was stopped" is not the correct language to use for that call. It is a sack, they should've determined if he was either down or not.
 
Ohio St +3.5 is a big, big, BIG play for me.

I think they have played better and played a better schedule. Henderson back and healthy is such a huge boost. McCarthy for Michigan is clearly banged up and IMO nowhere near 100%. Matchup that no one is talking about is that both of Michigan's OTs absolutely stink. They haven't played any EDGEs with a pulse either. Ohio St has NFL players on the edge in JTT and Sawyer and I expect them to absolute wreck havoc in this game. Not at all impressed by the interim coach for Michigan either.

And ultimately on a sport largely based on emotions I think OSU has a huge advantage there. They've had all year to hear about the blowout last year and the two losses. Really like what they have been saying this week. Michigan has weathered the storm all year. Every week it is something new. Supposed to be motivated and pound this team and pound that team, blah blah blah. They looked gassed last week. Worn out mentally and physically with all the nonsense all season long. I think Ohio St is a Wolf who smells blood here and delivers a massive knockout blow.
 
Ohio St +3.5 is a big, big, BIG play for me.

I think they have played better and played a better schedule. Henderson back and healthy is such a huge boost. McCarthy for Michigan is clearly banged up and IMO nowhere near 100%. Matchup that no one is talking about is that both of Michigan's OTs absolutely stink. They haven't played any EDGEs with a pulse either. Ohio St has NFL players on the edge in JTT and Sawyer and I expect them to absolute wreck havoc in this game. Not at all impressed by the interim coach for Michigan either.

And ultimately on a sport largely based on emotions I think OSU has a huge advantage there. They've had all year to hear about the blowout last year and the two losses. Really like what they have been saying this week. Michigan has weathered the storm all year. Every week it is something new. Supposed to be motivated and pound this team and pound that team, blah blah blah. They looked gassed last week. Worn out mentally and physically with all the nonsense all season long. I think Ohio St is a Wolf who smells blood here and delivers a massive knockout blow.
Some good points.

The only schedule difference is Notre Dame(who if you take that name away would look much less impressive) and UNLV. I know some OSU fans here like to joke about UNLV but this is likely a Double Digit win team. They would give ND a good game.

Otherwise, the big ten west opponents wash out.

The game by game comparison that you would look at the most is Penn State. All in all, Michigan performed better -- on the road.

I'll have my write up in a bit but I'll also discuss the OT's and how PSU and OSU differ on the DL.

Good luck tomorrow.
 
Ohio St +3.5 is a big, big, BIG play for me.

I think they have played better and played a better schedule. Henderson back and healthy is such a huge boost. McCarthy for Michigan is clearly banged up and IMO nowhere near 100%. Matchup that no one is talking about is that both of Michigan's OTs absolutely stink. They haven't played any EDGEs with a pulse either. Ohio St has NFL players on the edge in JTT and Sawyer and I expect them to absolute wreck havoc in this game. Not at all impressed by the interim coach for Michigan either.

And ultimately on a sport largely based on emotions I think OSU has a huge advantage there. They've had all year to hear about the blowout last year and the two losses. Really like what they have been saying this week. Michigan has weathered the storm all year. Every week it is something new. Supposed to be motivated and pound this team and pound that team, blah blah blah. They looked gassed last week. Worn out mentally and physically with all the nonsense all season long. I think Ohio St is a Wolf who smells blood here and delivers a massive knockout blow.

Gl johnny. I'd like to think Chop is pretty good for PSU, also left in the first quarter of a 3-3 game vs OSU.
 
The Game, The Game The Game


We have arrived at the finale once again, and once again this is for all the marbles.

This won't be an organized write-up but if you are looking to bet this game, hopefully .

I have purposely waited to get into this match-up this week, because I was hoping to maybe get an idea of JJ's injury before really making any predictions.

So, here we go....

First and foremost, let us talk coaching. The missing element here is worth a few points. You see that from the lookahead lines and just some common sense. Part of this is having watched Sherrone a few times now and understanding both his shortcomings (and strengths) plus what he has had to face, Hunt has an aggressive number of 3.5 with Jim not here, I will go with 2 points myself, a strong 2. With that being said, let's talk Sherrone.

Moore is a future head man in college football. He could very well be that guy at UM next year (if Jim decides to leave -- and yes it's in his hands) or down the line. I would prefer he goes to a smaller school and then comes back. The same would be said of another future coach, Mike Hart. Anyways, a lot is compared to his stint earlier this season with JJ's stats and the last two weeks -- but you cannot compare the two at all. Totally different situations. We'll talk JJ shortly ... My issue with Sherrone is having to spread himself to thin. There were concerns all off-season about him being both the OC full-time and the OL coach this year. Now, you add a 3rd element. That is my thing during this interim stint. I would rather he could be devoting time to the OL, when issues arise (such as big bad Chop Robinson taking over a few drives early). We'll see how this goes. My other issue is with time management and whatnot, but I think that will be better at home.

Okay, JJ has been banged up for weeks. He took a few hard hits from those choir boys in East Lansing and West Lafayette and then messed up his knee in the 2nd half at Happy Valley. He was hurting last week -- hence no running except for one. I noticed not too many nationally or even on-site realized this last week. I did mention this ahead of the game, fwiw. On the four sources I use on recruiting sites, they all say that he is improved. I always use UM injury info with a grain of salt. I need to see this for myself before anything. We need him to be able to run and have designed run plays to win this game. He needs that knee to be healthy to improve the throwing mechanics. Here is hoping that is the case...

One more thing with JJ. I want him healthy, obviously. This is the first time UM has had a decided advantage at QB in many years. The last time this was an even at the minimum was 2011. He is the x-factor, no doubt (oh, don't throw stats around -- that has no business when comparing --too many variables).

Now, let's talk about these last two games. First, let's get this out of the way. Ohio State has had a few close Maryland games the week before in recent years (last year plus C.U.M.'s final year) while UM had the Corum injury game last year versus Illinois (where they also had every play in the 1h until JJ went to a wristband). Teams struggle at times before games like these. Last week was no surprise. Add in the JJ injury + the hit on Roman and Michigan wasn't fielding their usual team. Still, with some early defensive plays they led 23-3. The late INT before half honestly flipped the game completely. The Penn State game wasn't exactly the smoothest week going in. A few things happened there. Michigan had a pretty aggressive offensive gameplan going in (like the first 8 games this year -- pass happy) and then Chop Robinson happened. The OL protection against a coming NFL star absolutely spooked the staff. Once they had watched Allar a bit, I think they were comfortable with the run attack only and getting out with a win. JJ had several beautiful, designed runs until his last one -- the knee injury. So, we see many people taking these last two games to heart. I think you can in some fashion (suspect OL play) with the relative strength of the teams, but you also cannot discount a full body of work.

So, my biggest issue with this team this year is how they have attacked the OL. This team started out spring and fall camps with basically 8-10 OL starters. They basically had 2 starting lineups. Now, some of that can be hyperbole but with the grad transfers in plus returnees this was to be perhaps the best group this decade (and that is coming off 2 Joe Moore awards). The bottom line is-- they have underachieved. I believe that they messed around too much early on and never had the correct group together. This will catch up to them in the playoffs likely, if they win this play-in. So, one good thing tomorrow is Ladarius is back at LT. He missed the trip to Maryland last week precuationary and he was missed -- big-time. The pass protect was great all year until Chop and last week with no Henderson. We'll see tomorrow....

One thing I want to point out about OSU rushers and PSU rushers... different styles... PSU rushers concern me more versus this offensive line. This is not to discount the OSU defensive line -- simply put we have two different styles when comparing.

The other weird thing with Michigan this year has been the running attack. You have what should be two all-conference performers and both have regressed from last year. Now, Corum was definitely hesitant and slower to start the year off the injury. He has started to show some pop as of late. Don had a broken thumb, a torn patella in this game last year and had a brilliant 2h performance. This year, he cannot get out of his own way. He has had some moments the last few weeks and is ever dangerous in the passing game. I have a feeling about him. Mullings is outstanding and I wish they would use him more. He has really developed this off-season into a full time RB. Again, line issues here are part of the issue. I think we'll see some stuff here we haven't see all year...

And speaking of that, we should see plenty of stuff we haven't all year on offense from Michigan. They have saved a lot, as usual for the tougher games. In August, after they put the walls up around the practice field, they installed a bunch of different stuff specifically for this game. Now, with JH not there, will this all get rolled out? We'll see. A healthy JJ and Roman are key here as well. The last two years they have had some brilliant stuff for this game. I look back at the 2017 game with John O'Korn at freaking QB. Michigan WR's were open ALL stinking day. There were plays ran we hadn't see all year. Jim preps offensively for this game pretty well (tough to tell in '18 and '19 when Don Brown was getting toasted on the other side).

As far as schedules go, both teams SOS are in the 40-50 range depending on what metrics you look at (well above Georgia and FSU fwiw). There isn't much difference between these, other than ND and UNLV games where on a neutral you see a 38-24 kind of ND win. Again, take away the name on the jersey and that is just a nice, solid road win. The rest of the OSU schedule has been hot trash. Lastly, Notre Dame gave that game away. We all know it. Freeman choked. My quick take on their games this year...

Ugly ugly @ Indiana
Another lower scoring (for OSU) game vs YSU
Stole a game @ Notre Dame
Offense got going vs high tempo WKU
Struggled for 2.5 quarters vs Maryland, trailed in 3rd
Grinder vs PSU -- Chop hurt early -- no Henderson OSU
Solid win at Wisky, never in trouble but only 24 points
Battle @ Rutgers till 2h, then they exploded
Blowouts vs two horrible teams -- Henderson really got going and MHJ great as always

We were talking about it tonight -- nationally a lot are capping this game off each teams last few games

On the OSU side, I know their big thing this off-season was to become 'tougher' and to have better fundamentals on defense. They were very soft the last few years, everyone knows that. They made some ridiculous mistakes on defense last year to keep Michigan in the game before UM took over and demolished them in the 2h. I mean, back in 2021 Michigan was bending and not breaking on defense. On offense, in the 2h, they basically ran the same play and couldn't be stopped. Thiis team is better on defense. We'll see about the toughness. This reminds me more of Tressell teams, big-time.

Another angle I wanted to look at was the OSU run defense. Numbers here are solid but we've seen evidence they can be had in this aspect. Notre Dame ran very well, especially in the 2h. Purdue got blown out but Mockabee was over 5 ypc and 100 yards. Monagai for Rutgers had 160 yards on the ground. Again, can the UM O-line perform to make these same numbers possible?

The best match-up is Will J vs Marvin Jr. Last year, Johnson was sensational as a true frosh and had an amazing performance vs MHJ. I don't expect anything close to that this year, just hopefully do not let him go nuts. The bottom line is, I believe Michigan is the better team, but OSU has the best player on the field and he can do this almost by himself. We have seen super-human efforts before in "The Game".

I am missing a lot here, but sleep is needed so I'll do some quick hitters on my way out...

-This reminds me much more of the older UM-OSU games. This had a 1990's feel to it, to be honest. I hope we have a memorable game.
-I am hope JJ, Ladarius and Roman are healthy. I know OSU comes in very healthy overall, and as fans we want to see everyone at their best.
-Ebuka is an x-factor, imo. Big respect for him
-Roman is on the other side
-Don't sleep on Semaj Morgan
-Michigan rattles McCord, I believe
-Marvin has a few big plays, no doubt.
-This has been an auto over for years -- I don't think so here, although my prediction calls for it

BIG CAPS HERE -- I think OSU will go for it on 4th down A LOT. They have kicked FG's in the Stroud era all too much with the bend, don't break defense.


A month ago, I had this game as a DD win. I had seen enough from both teams. I have lost some confidence, due to the coaching situation as well as the OL issues. i do think that having the better QB here wins out in the end. Now, the million dollar question is that knee. The other thing is, he doesn't have JH in-game coaching him. This time, I think he rises above that. We'll know quickly if he is good by scrambles.

All that being said, ANYTHING can happen in 'The Game'. Stars are born, and men are made. Either winner will be worthy.

JJ leads em, and goes 2-0 as starter and 3-0 as a player vs OSU

27-21.

Never forget, Ohio State took McCord over JJ -- so this one is for bragging rights for both young men.
 
Hunt and I looked at props. I am not going to make this unenjoyable. I sweated out Corum last week.

Leans though...

Egbuka over yards receiving
Edwards over yards rushing
JJ over yards rushing/passing (check how he looks pregame)

Ramdom one at BOL I saw...

3 straight scores is YES -209 NO +153

Weird that in a FG+ game that the 'Yes' is that chalky.
 
Go Blue, and I cannot believe we have to watch Iowa next week.

Apologies for no B16 thread this week. When I saw Frank started this thread, I decided to do any thoughts in here. I honestly had no drive to cap the rest of this conference. I liked Iowa getting points and thought PSU would win by less than the spread --so I was bringing you 50/50 thoughts. I have zero leans tomorrow. The conference is on hold tomorrow.
 
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