Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I finally found a team with an inferior defense to ODU; the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers! So if you like points, this could reach 50 by halftime.
These teams are similar in a lot of ways; both pass happy offenses that do not control the clock and both have terrible defenses.
ODU on Offense:
ODU averages 408 yards over 67 plays per game for an average of 6.1 yards per play. They average 14 yards per point. Because the right side of their offensive line has been so bad vs. the pass, they have been forced over the past couple games to run the ball more; something which they have been very successful at. They ran 28 times for 161 on UTEP and 42 times for 201 yards vs. Marshall. This has coincided with more carries from our stud RB, Ray Lawry. Over the past 2 games he's run the ball 29 times for 248 yards or 8.6 yards per carry. Expect this to continue as they try to become more balanced and keep defenses from pinning their ears back and getting after the QB.
The teams ODU has played average giving up 72 pays per game for 430 yards (6.01 y/a) and 13.71 yards per point.
Western Kentucky's defense is allowing 534 yards per game on 82 plays or 6.6 yards per play. The damage has been equally bad giving up over 5 yards per carry on the ground (50 carries per game) and 281 yards passing per game over 8.9 yards per passing attempt. Opposing QB have a QB rating of 156 average 21-32 281 yards. They have been fairly good getting 2.2 sacks per game or 1 sack every 14 passing attempts. This is a big concern with ODU giving up almost 3 sacks per game or 1 sack every 13 passing attempts.
The teams Wky's has played average 32 points per game, 72 plays for 435 yards (6.02 ypa) compared to Wky giving up 40 points per game, 82 pays and 6.5 yards per attempt.
I think we will see 75-80 plays per game ran by each side. Neither controls the clock and neither defense gets off the field. Wky's weakness has been pass defense, although they aren't very good stopping the run either. Pressure is the one thing that has stopped ODU's passing attack this year and ODU mixing it up could give them some success. The only defense that may be worse than Wky's is UTEP, which give up 7.5 yards per attempt. In that game, ODU only ran 59 plays (UTEP ran ball 52 times), but were able to gain 357 yards or 6.75 yards per attempt. Offense started slow, but got tds on 4 of last 6 drives.
I think you can say every team that Wky has faced has exceeded their typical offensive performance.
Yards- Yards per play Team average, average vs. WKY
BG- 454- 5.75; 465- 6.56
Illinois- 409- 6.10; 520-6.12
MTSU- 461-6.23; 541-6.10
Navy- 439-6.7; 467- 7.0
UAB- 477- 5.9; 591-6.6
FAU- 367-5.6, 619- 7.0
Here are the opponents of Wky and what they average for the year:
Navy -average 439 yards, 6.7 yppa, gained 461 and scored 28
MTSU- average 461 yards, 6.2 ypp; gained 541 yards and scored 50
Illinois- average 409 yards, 6.10 ypp; gained 520 yards and scored 36
ODU- average 472 yards, 6.02 ypp; scored ?
UAB-average 477 yards, 5.9 ypp; gained 591 yards and scored 42
BG- average 454 yards, 5.8 yards per play; gained 465 yards and scored 37
FAU- average 367 yards, 5.6 yard per play; gained 619 yards, and scored 45
Western Kentucky on Offense:
Western Kentucky averages 547 yards per game on 6.6 yards per play. They run the ball 32 times for 130 yards (4.0 ypa) and throw the ball 35-51 for 417 passing yards. The teams they have faced average 33 points per game, 432 yards per game on 71 plays or 6.05 yards given up per play. Western Kentucky is the superior offense here, but they are not a very effective running team. THey only average 4.0 yards per carry vs. teams that give up 4.7 yards per carry. Bowling Green, Illinois, and FAU all give up over 5 yards per carry as a team and Western Kentucky has averaged 32 carries for 103 yards or 3.22 yards per carry. ODU is a team that doesn't stop the run so it will be interesting to see how this part turns out.
Western Kentucky average 35-551 for 417 passing yards per game or 8.2 yards per passing attempt. The teams they have faced average 60% passing against for 7.5 yards per attempt. Its safe to say, they are going to have success through the air. ODU gives up 69% passing though they only give up 7.2 yards per passing attempt. The teams ODU has faced have been running teams that average over 40 carries per game. This will be the first team that ODU faces that is a passing team:
Pass frequency:
NC State 46%
Eastern Michigan 39%
Rice 36%
Midd Tenn 39%
Marshall 43%
UTEP 36%
Western Kentucky 61%
Because of this, I have some question marks on how the ODU pass defense will hold up. Although they give up 66% passing, they have faced running teams that use play action or WR screens through the air. MTSU, for example, completed 83% of their passes, but I believe only 4-5 attempts were more than 5 yards through the air. ODU's opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per passing attempt, but combined to average 7.15 against ODU. I believe ODU's pass defense, led by Reggie Owens and Felonte Misher is superior to its run defense. This is a game for ODUs defense that is completely opposite of every team they've played this year. On the year, teams averaged 64% runs vs. 36% passing, which is completely opposite of Western Kentucky.
Other Factors:
Old Dominion is off a bye with a much healthier team than we've seen the past 2 weeks. Its is possible that Troy Butler, a key offensive lineman returns, which would significantly improve the right side of the OL.
Western Kentucky is at home.
I like F +/- rankings.
ODU ranked 98, Western Kentucky ranked 72.
Here are the rankings of the teams ODU has played arrayed in order against Western Kentucky:
Marshall 20 Navy 56
NC State 71 UAB 65
Middle Tenn 83 Middle Tenn 83
Rice 91 Illinois 86
UTEP 112 Florida Atlantic 100
Eastern Michigan 126 Bowling Green 118
Don't see a whole lot of difference here.
One common opponent, MTSU...ODU lost by 13 at home as a 1 point favorite, WKY lost by 3 @ MT as a 1 point underdog. Both teams are 2-4 against the spread this year.
Prediction:
This is a tough one for me as Im having trouble figuring out how successful Western Kentuckys passing offense will be. I know they are going to move the ball and do well, but there are no teams I can compare to that ODU has played. The QBs for NC State and Marshall are pretty good, but they only through the ball 56 times total. 42-56 for 490 yards, 8.75 ypa. ODU should be successful on offense with a mixture that Wky will struggle to stop.
I pegged this line as about a touchdown for the home team so I'm shocked to see the 11s. I think ODU should cover this game and possibly win outright.
45-42 ODU.
Best of luck
These teams are similar in a lot of ways; both pass happy offenses that do not control the clock and both have terrible defenses.
ODU on Offense:
ODU averages 408 yards over 67 plays per game for an average of 6.1 yards per play. They average 14 yards per point. Because the right side of their offensive line has been so bad vs. the pass, they have been forced over the past couple games to run the ball more; something which they have been very successful at. They ran 28 times for 161 on UTEP and 42 times for 201 yards vs. Marshall. This has coincided with more carries from our stud RB, Ray Lawry. Over the past 2 games he's run the ball 29 times for 248 yards or 8.6 yards per carry. Expect this to continue as they try to become more balanced and keep defenses from pinning their ears back and getting after the QB.
The teams ODU has played average giving up 72 pays per game for 430 yards (6.01 y/a) and 13.71 yards per point.
Western Kentucky's defense is allowing 534 yards per game on 82 plays or 6.6 yards per play. The damage has been equally bad giving up over 5 yards per carry on the ground (50 carries per game) and 281 yards passing per game over 8.9 yards per passing attempt. Opposing QB have a QB rating of 156 average 21-32 281 yards. They have been fairly good getting 2.2 sacks per game or 1 sack every 14 passing attempts. This is a big concern with ODU giving up almost 3 sacks per game or 1 sack every 13 passing attempts.
The teams Wky's has played average 32 points per game, 72 plays for 435 yards (6.02 ypa) compared to Wky giving up 40 points per game, 82 pays and 6.5 yards per attempt.
I think we will see 75-80 plays per game ran by each side. Neither controls the clock and neither defense gets off the field. Wky's weakness has been pass defense, although they aren't very good stopping the run either. Pressure is the one thing that has stopped ODU's passing attack this year and ODU mixing it up could give them some success. The only defense that may be worse than Wky's is UTEP, which give up 7.5 yards per attempt. In that game, ODU only ran 59 plays (UTEP ran ball 52 times), but were able to gain 357 yards or 6.75 yards per attempt. Offense started slow, but got tds on 4 of last 6 drives.
I think you can say every team that Wky has faced has exceeded their typical offensive performance.
Yards- Yards per play Team average, average vs. WKY
BG- 454- 5.75; 465- 6.56
Illinois- 409- 6.10; 520-6.12
MTSU- 461-6.23; 541-6.10
Navy- 439-6.7; 467- 7.0
UAB- 477- 5.9; 591-6.6
FAU- 367-5.6, 619- 7.0
Here are the opponents of Wky and what they average for the year:
Navy -average 439 yards, 6.7 yppa, gained 461 and scored 28
MTSU- average 461 yards, 6.2 ypp; gained 541 yards and scored 50
Illinois- average 409 yards, 6.10 ypp; gained 520 yards and scored 36
ODU- average 472 yards, 6.02 ypp; scored ?
UAB-average 477 yards, 5.9 ypp; gained 591 yards and scored 42
BG- average 454 yards, 5.8 yards per play; gained 465 yards and scored 37
FAU- average 367 yards, 5.6 yard per play; gained 619 yards, and scored 45
Western Kentucky on Offense:
Western Kentucky averages 547 yards per game on 6.6 yards per play. They run the ball 32 times for 130 yards (4.0 ypa) and throw the ball 35-51 for 417 passing yards. The teams they have faced average 33 points per game, 432 yards per game on 71 plays or 6.05 yards given up per play. Western Kentucky is the superior offense here, but they are not a very effective running team. THey only average 4.0 yards per carry vs. teams that give up 4.7 yards per carry. Bowling Green, Illinois, and FAU all give up over 5 yards per carry as a team and Western Kentucky has averaged 32 carries for 103 yards or 3.22 yards per carry. ODU is a team that doesn't stop the run so it will be interesting to see how this part turns out.
Western Kentucky average 35-551 for 417 passing yards per game or 8.2 yards per passing attempt. The teams they have faced average 60% passing against for 7.5 yards per attempt. Its safe to say, they are going to have success through the air. ODU gives up 69% passing though they only give up 7.2 yards per passing attempt. The teams ODU has faced have been running teams that average over 40 carries per game. This will be the first team that ODU faces that is a passing team:
Pass frequency:
NC State 46%
Eastern Michigan 39%
Rice 36%
Midd Tenn 39%
Marshall 43%
UTEP 36%
Western Kentucky 61%
Because of this, I have some question marks on how the ODU pass defense will hold up. Although they give up 66% passing, they have faced running teams that use play action or WR screens through the air. MTSU, for example, completed 83% of their passes, but I believe only 4-5 attempts were more than 5 yards through the air. ODU's opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per passing attempt, but combined to average 7.15 against ODU. I believe ODU's pass defense, led by Reggie Owens and Felonte Misher is superior to its run defense. This is a game for ODUs defense that is completely opposite of every team they've played this year. On the year, teams averaged 64% runs vs. 36% passing, which is completely opposite of Western Kentucky.
Other Factors:
Old Dominion is off a bye with a much healthier team than we've seen the past 2 weeks. Its is possible that Troy Butler, a key offensive lineman returns, which would significantly improve the right side of the OL.
Western Kentucky is at home.
I like F +/- rankings.
ODU ranked 98, Western Kentucky ranked 72.
Here are the rankings of the teams ODU has played arrayed in order against Western Kentucky:
Marshall 20 Navy 56
NC State 71 UAB 65
Middle Tenn 83 Middle Tenn 83
Rice 91 Illinois 86
UTEP 112 Florida Atlantic 100
Eastern Michigan 126 Bowling Green 118
Don't see a whole lot of difference here.
One common opponent, MTSU...ODU lost by 13 at home as a 1 point favorite, WKY lost by 3 @ MT as a 1 point underdog. Both teams are 2-4 against the spread this year.
Prediction:
This is a tough one for me as Im having trouble figuring out how successful Western Kentuckys passing offense will be. I know they are going to move the ball and do well, but there are no teams I can compare to that ODU has played. The QBs for NC State and Marshall are pretty good, but they only through the ball 56 times total. 42-56 for 490 yards, 8.75 ypa. ODU should be successful on offense with a mixture that Wky will struggle to stop.
I pegged this line as about a touchdown for the home team so I'm shocked to see the 11s. I think ODU should cover this game and possibly win outright.
45-42 ODU.
Best of luck
