October

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
September - [33-28 +4.23u]
Week Four - 7-7 +0.21u
  • 453 Chicago Bears/Oakland Raiders Under 40 -105
  • 457 Jacksonville Jaguars/Carolina Panthers Under 40 -102
  • 461 New England Patriots -16½ -105
  • 461 New England Patriots/Washington Redskins Under 41½ -105
  • 464 Philadelphia Eagles -14 -105
  • 465 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/New Orleans Saints Under 46 -105
  • 469 Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans Under 39 -105
  • 475 Indianapolis Colts/Kansas City Chiefs Over 56 -103
  • 476 Kansas City Chiefs -11 -103

In 2019 through last week dogs are 35-25-2 58.3% ATS
season = 2019 and line > 0

SU:23-38-1 (-5.47, 37.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:35-25-2 (0.21, 58.3%) avg line: 5.7+6: 45-17-0 (72.6%) -6: 19-43-0 (30.6%) +10: 48-14-0 (77.4%) -10: 11-49-2 (18.3%)

...but big dogs of 10 or more only 2-3 ATS this year or 40%, as a matter of fact over the last 7 years dogs getting 10 or more are only 74-106-3 or 41% ATS :popcorn:
View attachment 43418

View attachment 43419
View attachment 43420
 
adding a few more
  • 453 Chicago Bears -6½ -115
  • 465 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -110
  • 477 Cleveland Browns +5 -105
 
September - [37-36 +0.04u]
Week Five -4-8 -4.19u

Last week is best forgotten.

Thursday:
  • 104 New England Patriots -17 -104
  • 103 New York Giants/New England Patriots Under 43 -105
Since 2012 outside their division and at home the Pats have went 30-10 ATS or 75%!
View attachment 43515

Since 2006(the history of Thurs night football) when a team was a DD favorite the under has cashed over 70%
View attachment 43516

NFL total between 40 and 43 have stayed under near 56% over last 7 years. This year it's 8-3 to the under and it has went 19-5-1 to the under over last 25 games in that range.
View attachment 43517

Lastly all favs of 15 or more have covered 66.7% over last 10 years and are 11-4 73.3% for the last 5 years
View attachment 43518
new-england-patriots-alexandria_pg_600.jpg
 
Official 2019 NFL Power Rankings: Sponsored by Marriott Hotels® - Post Week 5 Edition!

1. New England Patriots 32 (NC|+0.2)
2. New Orleans Saints 30.8 (+1|+0.9)
3. Kansas City Chiefs 29.3 (-1|-1.9)
4. San Francisco 49ers 28.9 (+3|+3.4)
5. Green Bay Packers 27.8 (+3|+2.6)
6. Seattle Seahawks 27.5 (NC|+1.8)
7. Los Angeles Rams 25.3 (-2|-2.8)
8. Philadelphia Eagles 25.1 (+2|+1.9)
9. Buffalo Bills 23.9 (+2|+2.9)
10. Dallas Cowboys 23 (-6|-5.2)
11. Baltimore Ravens 19.7 (+2|+0.2)
12. Chicago Bears 19.6 (-3|-5)
13. Detroit Lions 19.5 (-1|-0.4)
14. Houston Texans 19.2 (+4|+4.3)
15. Carolina Panthers 19.1 (+2|+2.5)
16. Minnesota Vikings 18.1 (-1|-0.1)
17. Indianapolis Colts 17.5 (+5|+5.6)
18. Oakland Raiders 15 (+6|+5)
19. Los Angeles Chargers 14.7 (-5|-4.7)
20. Cleveland Browns 12.6 (-4|-4.3)
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 12.3 (-2|-1.8)
22. Tennessee Titans 10.5 (-2|-2.2)
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10.4 (-2|-1.6)
24. New York Giants 9.7 (-1|-0.9)
25. Pittsburgh Steelers 7.4 (+1|-0.3)
26. Atlanta Falcons 7 (-1|-1)
27. Denver Broncos 6.3 (NC|+0.6)
28. Arizona Cardinals 5.4 (+1|+1.4)
29. Cincinnati Bengals 3.8 (-1|-1)
30. New York Jets 3.4 (NC|NC)
31. Washington Redskins 2.2 (NC|-0.1)
32. Miami Dolphins 1 (NC|NC)
 
View attachment 43559My plays:
Posted as soon as I could.
  • 254 Baltimore Ravens -10½ -102
  • 253 Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens Under 46½ -102
  • 255 Seattle Seahawks -103
  • 257 Houston Texans/Kansas City Chiefs Over 54½ -107
  • 263 Washington Redskins -5 -105
  • 265 San Francisco 49ers +3½ -115
  • 267 Atlanta Falcons -2½ -115
  • 267 Atlanta Falcons/Arizona Cardinals Under 51½ -105
  • 269 Dallas Cowboys -7 -105
  • 269 Dallas Cowboys/New York Jets Under 43½ -102
  • 271 Tennessee Titans +108
  • 258 Kansas City Chiefs -3½ -105
  • 258 Kansas City Chiefs 1st Half -165
  • 259 New Orleans Saints/Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Half Over 20½ -115
  • 260 Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Half -140
View attachment 43558
 
​
Monday​
  1. 276 Green Bay Packers -4 -101 vs Detroit Lions
    1.01/1
  2. 275 Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers Under 47 -109
    .98/.9
 
Sunday...
  • 451 Arizona Cardinals +3½ -105
  • 451 Arizona Cardinals/New York Giants Over 50 -105
  • 453 Houston Texans +108
  • 456 Buffalo Bills -17 -107
  • 455 Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills Under 42½ -105
  • 459 Oakland Raiders +6 -107
  • 461 Jacksonville Jaguars -4 -105
  • 469 Baltimore Ravens +3 -110
  • 471 New Orleans Saints +4½ -108
  • 463 Los Angeles Rams/Atlanta Falcons Over 54½ -105
  • 466 Washington Redskins +10 –109
  • 465 San Francisco 49ers/Washington Redskins Under 38½ -102
  • 467 Los Angeles Chargers/Tennessee Titans Under 43 -108
71058_2.jpg
 
austinhous said:
Check out Sean Payton's ATS record as the underdog.
Click to expand...

Yeah I see that, was on them already but solid angle. 40-22 ATS or 64.5% although only 59.2% on road

coach = Sean Payton and DA
SU:19-32-0 (-2.82, 37.3%)Teaser Records
ATS:29-20-2 (1.21, 59.2%) avg line: 4.0+6: 40-11-0 (78.4%) -6: 15-36-0 (29.4%) +10: 41-9-1 (82.0%) -10: 9-42-0 (17.6%)
O/U:22-27-2 (-0.25, 44.9%) avg total: 48.1+6: 16-33-2 (32.7%) -6: 33-17-1 (66.0%) +10: 10-39-2 (20.4%) -10: 40-11-0 (78.4%)
 
Road dogs of 11 or less have cashed 57% since last year

season > 2017 and line <= 11 and D and ...
gamesATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)		Avg LineOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)		Avg TotalSU
W - L- P (marg, %win)		SDQL
10452-49-3 (-1.28, 51.5%)4.146-58-0 (-2.28, 44.2%)46.338-63-3 (-5.42, 37.6%)H
219120-89-10 (0.84, 57.4%)5.0105-106-8 (0.85, 49.8%)46.680-139-0 (-4.20, 36.5%)A

Short road dogs less than 7 points have been stupid good this year, clipping at 68% winners and even 55% SU

View attachment 43701
 
mrpickem said:
Yeah I see that, was on them already but solid angle. 40-22 ATS or 64.5% although only 59.2% on road
Click to expand...
Brees was a common element in a lot of those games, too. But Sean Payton is 4-0 SU and ATS without him in these last four games. I wonder how much the Bears will benefit with those 4 full games worth of tape on Bridgewater, though. Crazy that Sean Payton had only coached 3 career games without Brees before this season.
 
Lame 6-8-1 yesterday after PHI shat the bed
  • 475 New England Patriots -9½ -109
  • 475 New England Patriots/New York Jets Under 43 -102
 
1-1 Thursday, some good looking spots today, but that doesn't necessarily translate to wins
  • 264 Los Angeles Rams -12 -105 (1.5u)
  • 266 New Orleans Saints -12½ -102 (1.5u)
  • 255 Los Angeles Chargers +3½ -110
  • 255 Los Angeles Chargers/Chicago Bears Under 41 -108
  • 259 New York Jets/Jacksonville Jaguars Under 40½ -107
  • 261 Philadelphia Eagles +1½ -101
  • 261 Philadelphia Eagles/Buffalo Bills Under 40½ -102
  • 267 Oakland Raiders +6 -102
  • 267 Oakland Raiders/Houston Texans Over 52 -102
  • 269 Carolina Panthers/San Francisco 49ers Under 40½ -104
  • 271 Denver Broncos/Indianapolis Colts Under 42 -107
  • 274 New England Patriots -9½ -130
Notes:
ATL: Matt Ryan ruled out for Week 8 vs. Seahawks
FA: Jets release LG Kelechi Osemele after surgery
NO: Drew Brees will start Week 8 vs. Cardinals
PIT: James Washington expected to return Week 8
NE: Rob Gronkowski hints at 2020 comeback
TB: Bucs activate Jason Pierre-Paul from NFI
NE: Josh Gordon (knee) 1-2 weeks from returning
FA: Antonio Brown, NFL in 'standoff' over status
MIA: Lions, Titans interested in trading for Drake
DAL: Cowboys want team-friendly deal from Prescott

IT’S MINSHEW MAGIC TIME!!!!

Who will be the NFL ROTY and why will it be Gardner Minshew?

-139 completions in 226 attempts for 1697 yards and 10 touchdowns with only 2 interception
-QB rating 95.7 (first among rookies), 106.2 in the red zone (first in NFL)
-first -in NFL history to pass at least 200 passing yards with a rating of at least 95.0 in each of first 5 career games
-set record completion percentage in a professional debut without practicing with first team
-set a team record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie (in the ten best overall for the franchise)
-only player in NFL history to have two-or-fewer picks in their first 200 passing attempts
-first player in NFL history to throw for 10+ TDs with two-or-fewer INTs through seven career games
-passing yardage total in his first seven career games most in franchise history
-NFL rookie of the week five out of the first seven weeks
-NFL rookie of the month in September
-drafted in the sixth round with the 178th pick
-had the second highest Wonderlic score in the draft and scored a 30 on the ACT
-called the most interesting QB in the world by ESPN
--teammates dubbed him “jockstrap king” since he warms up wearing only aviators and a jockstrap in the locker room
-sometimes he doesn’t wear the jockstrap
-was offered a chance to be the spokesman for Penis Puppets as a result
-understands the value of a dollar and still drives the used Acura his parents gave him for college
-tried to break his hand with a hammer at east Carolina to get another year of eligibility
-almost spent his final collegiate year as a backup in Alabama until WSU called asking if he wanted to lead the nation in passing (he came in second)
-set a school record at WSU for most wins in a season
-finished fifth in Heisman voting
-won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm
-frequently wears jorts he cut off himself, a headband and aviator sunglasses
-legendary mustache

View attachment 43837
 
Monday
  • 278 Pittsburgh Steelers -14 +100
Steelers off bye and getting a little healthier, the fish suck and PIT has really shined in prime time while MIA has been terrible

IN PRIME TIME:

XPziX0H.jpg
 
On this the last day of October, there's really no question which way to go
  • 301 San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals Under 43 -102
This year with dogs of 8 or more the under has cashed over 77% (17-5-2)
View attachment 43913

When playing in Prime Time, these 2 teams have combined to cash over 60% unders the last 15 years
View attachment 43914


1572549064009.jpg

Still have to wait a few more days for the magic.​
 
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