October 10th-13th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Heres the plays. Wanted to post them now while they are still around the current numbers. Any Dr. Bob movement in my favor will have me put more units on them.

Back tonight and Thursday with more thoughts. Rest of the week is shot.

Navy +4 -110
UAB -3 -110
Boston College -13.5 -110 4 units
Minnesota +7 -110
Air Force +4 -110 2 units
LSU -9.5 -110 5 units
Wisky-PSU u44 -110
UL-Cincy o66 -110 4 units
 
1. it's about time you posted your plays this week !

2. understand the minnesota bet ... any chance of a ml play on that one ?

3. predicted score at penn state ? thoughts on how you think that game plays out.

4. we get a wolverines write up this week ?

good luck this week Big Al Reno.
 
GL this week BAR - good hit with both Cincy and the under last week.

BC might be my favorite play of the year thus far. Like Minny as well.

On the fence on LSU as many have strong opinions on opposing sides there. Interested to see how that one turns out.
 
Hey man I love the card this week. Just put a bet on Boston College on bookmaker for 2 units. Think they take care of the Irish (who still suck btw) by a good 3 TD's. Against you on Minny but other than that hope you have a great week bro
 
U da fucken man yo!

VK, I'm obviously not the champ but I'll take a mini stab.


People are getting very confused on what Michigan can defend and can't defend. They CANNOT defend MOBILE Qb's from the spread who run several misdirections. Michigan plays a lot of deep zone with the secondary and the linebackers just aren't good enough to defend it this year.

They have traditionally been ok against a spread passing attack...it's the running spread offense that gives them fits.
 
Englemon: We're making strides against spread offenses

by Philip Zaroo | MLive.com Tuesday October 09, 2007, 9:41 AM




A lot has been made of the Wolverines inability to defend against mobile quarterbacks and the spread offense. But safety Brandent Englemon says the Wolverines are making gains. "I think we've gotten a lot better as far as understanding what type of plays we're going to get," he says. "We've definitely made strides in that area and have to continue to improve on that aspect of the game."

"We try to stay in our base defense and make them adjust to what we do instead of trying to adjust to what they do, and trying to understand the plays that they tend to run; understanding how to block different plays that they might run."
Another key, Englemon says, is for Michigan's secondary to improve at making big plays. When the opposing offense makes mistakes, the defense has to capitalize.
 
At the season's midway point, U-M has much to address

by John Heuser | The Ann Arbor News Tuesday October 09, 2007, 7:14 AM





It's the midway point of the college football season and the University of Michigan team is still trying to define its identity.
The Wolverines (4-2, 2-0 Big Ten) aren't national title contenders, but they're one of three teams unbeaten in league competition.
Michigan's offense isn't prolific, but it showcases perhaps college football's best tailback.
The defense has played inconsistently, but it features a number of playmakers.
"We're not where we need to be,'' Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said. "But from the standpoint of a team that has given the kind of effort, and displayed the kind of things I think you need to be able to compete for a championship, I think those things are there.''
Here's a look at what's gone right for Michigan, and what needs to be addressed for the Wolverines to make a Big Ten title run.

<BOLD>Offense
</BOLD>

MVP: Mike Hart.
What's working: Michigan can run the football, no doubt about it. Hart - who's on pace to smash Tim Biakabutuka's single-season rushing record of 1,818 yards - has topped 100 yards in all six games and went over 200 last Saturday against Eastern Michigan. The Wolverines are also doing a nice job of converting on third down. Their conversion rate of 48.5 percent is third in the Big Ten.
Of concern: The fact that the senior tailback remained in the game against a Mid-American Conference opponent long enough to hit 200 yards.

Not only does it reflect Michigan's lack of depth at that position, but it shows the Wolverines are having trouble putting opponents away.
"I'd like to be more consistent,'' Michigan senior guard Adam Kraus said. "Coming out fast and staying on our opponents instead of scoring, then not scoring, then scoring again.''
Expected to be one of the league's most potent offenses this season because of Hart, quarterback Chad Henne and other veterans, the Wolverines generate points at a rate of 25.3 per game, which ranks ninth in the conference. If Michigan continues at that pace, it would be the program's lowest scoring average since 1996.
Part of the problem has been the Wolverines' inconsistent passing attack. Michigan is throwing for fewer than 200 yards a game, and ranks 10th in passing efficiency. The offense has managed just three offensive plays of 40 yards or better this season, and two have been runs by Hart.

<BOLD>Defense
</BOLD>
MVP: Shawn Crable.
What's working: Pressuring quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. Led by sophomore defensive end Brandon Graham's seven sacks, Michigan ranks fourth in the conference with 23. The Wolverines are also first in the Big Ten and third nationally with 19 turnovers.

The team's most dependable defensive player has been senior linebacker Crable, who has 16 tackles for loss (putting him on pace to break the school's single-season record of 26 held by Mark Messner and Larry Foote) and has forced two fumbles and recovered a fumble.
Of concern: Slow starts. Of the 120 points scored on the Wolverines this season, 87 have come in the first half. The night-and-day difference was most noticeable two weeks ago against Northwestern, when the Wildcats got 16 points and 309 yards in the first half, 0 points and 108 yards in the second.
"I'm not saying I know what (is causing it),'' Michigan cornerback Morgan Trent said. "But it's something we've gotta fix, we've gotta correct and we know that.''
The Wolverines have also been prone to being run on effectively (they rank eighth in the league in run defense) and have given up seven plays of more than 40 yards.

<BOLD>Special teams
</BOLD>

MVP: Zoltan Mesko.

What's working: Between Mesko's long and well-placed boots and good punt return coverage, the team isn't easily giving up prime field position on changes of possession.
Of concern: Most everything else. The Wolverines don't have an effective return game, their kickoff coverage has been spotty, they've had an extra point and two field goals blocked, they allowed Eastern Michigan to recover two onside kicks and they're still trying to find a dependable placekicker. Things are looking better in that department, however. After Jason Gingell connected on 3 of 9 field goal attempts through the first five games, Michigan switched to K.C. Lopata, who hit both his field goal tries last weekend.
 
GL bar..don't know why i feel like you come extra prepared for this week..gonan tear it up
 
GL bar..don't know why i feel like you come extra prepared for this week..gonan tear it up

I feel pretty good about this set of plays. Doubt anything else. October for years was always death to me until last two years so the last few weeks are no suprise.
 
Not having Pinnacle has netted approx 3.75 units in extra lost money on losses so far this year btw.
 
1. it's about time you posted your plays this week !

2. understand the minnesota bet ... any chance of a ml play on that one ?

3. predicted score at penn state ? thoughts on how you think that game plays out.

4. we get a wolverines write up this week ?

good luck this week Big Al Reno.


LOL

1. Cleared my head for a few days and dug deep into these games. Feel very solid about them.
2. I actually like several Ml's a bit this week. Minnesota, AF, Iowa I think are solid in that regard.
3. I think there is a chance neither team hits twenty. No way both do. Lets say 17-13 PSU
4. Some UM articles are above. Been tough getting a read on UM this year other than NW second half. Hunt is right though, Curtis is not a mobile QB so a bit of a difference. They will have trouble against the WR's though. Mike Hart will have to win this game by controlling the ball.
 
GL this week BAR - good hit with both Cincy and the under last week.

BC might be my favorite play of the year thus far. Like Minny as well.

On the fence on LSU as many have strong opinions on opposing sides there. Interested to see how that one turns out.

Dmoney, def thought I was in for a split on that one at best. Glad both came in. Thanks for help on that under. My BC line isn't the best but ND is getting a bit of respect after last two weeks. Too much, which I'll expound on in a bit.
 
U da fucken man yo!

VK, I'm obviously not the champ but I'll take a mini stab.


People are getting very confused on what Michigan can defend and can't defend. They CANNOT defend MOBILE Qb's from the spread who run several misdirections. Michigan plays a lot of deep zone with the secondary and the linebackers just aren't good enough to defend it this year.

They have traditionally been ok against a spread passing attack...it's the running spread offense that gives them fits.

:tiphat:
 
Not having Pinnacle has netted approx 3.75 units in extra lost money on losses so far this year btw.

Yep. Not having Pinny is a drag on my bankroll too. My suggestion is putting money at Matchbook. Not as efficient or good as Pinny but it'll help out some.
 
Yep. Not having Pinny is a drag on my bankroll too. My suggestion is putting money at Matchbook. Not as efficient or good as Pinny but it'll help out some.

Thats something else I was going to bring up. Do you think it is worth it for someone on such an odd schedule each week and trying to get matches on my plays? I seriously considered it but ended up waiting things out. Was thinking of same thing for NBA but at same time I mostly bet the night before o nthe next days games.
 
Thats something else I was going to bring up. Do you think it is worth it for someone on such an odd schedule each week and trying to get matches on my plays? I seriously considered it but ended up waiting things out. Was thinking of same thing for NBA but at same time I mostly bet the night before o nthe next days games.

Here's the deal about Matchbook if you bet any kind of significant money (anything over $500): you have to wait until later in the week when bigger money comes in. Matchbook initially seeds with $500 on each side and gradually moves that up to $1000. Other players come in and pony up their own bets. But the early players bet $2-100 (that's right, $2).

I usually get my Matchbook bets in on Thursday or later on my later, less sure plays.

i have about 33% of my bankroll over at Matchbook because I place more value on early lines at Bookmaker over lower juice that I have to wait so long for.

But that little bit does help.

Kind of funny though. I just checked my average juice paid so far this year and it is 8.7% whereas last season for the whole season it was 8.75% even though I used Pinny for 75%+ of my plays. I always tried to get the lowest juice possible but I think the difference was that I played alot more games at -120 last year than I have this year.

I've gotten over the fear of pushing on bad numbers (other than 3 or 7). Lot of worse things than pushing--like losing -120.....or -150.
 
Here's the deal about Matchbook if you bet any kind of significant money (anything over $500): you have to wait until later in the week when bigger money comes in. Matchbook initially seeds with $500 on each side and gradually moves that up to $1000. Other players come in and pony up their own bets. But the early players bet $2-100 (that's right, $2).

I usually get my Matchbook bets in on Thursday or later on my later, less sure plays.

i have about 33% of my bankroll over at Matchbook because I place more value on early lines at Bookmaker over lower juice that I have to wait so long for.

But that little bit does help.

Kind of funny though. I just checked my average juice paid so far this year and it is 8.7% whereas last season for the whole season it was 8.75% even though I used Pinny for 75%+ of my plays. I always tried to get the lowest juice possible but I think the difference was that I played alot more games at -120 last year than I have this year.

I've gotten over the fear of pushing on bad numbers (other than 3 or 7). Lot of worse things than pushing--like losing -120.....or -150.

interesting...My plays are 200-1000 pretty much...so figured that was middle ground there

Pinnacle was great for me 'selling' points.
I won so many bets at say +110

I figured it out to about -102

If I had a team at -22 -105..why not sell to 23.5 +112...it was awesome
 
Another advantage of Pinny and something you really can't do at Matchbook. You're locked into whatever point spread they offer but then you can offer and accept at different juices.

I often make an offer at +105 or so that shows up on the other side as -105. Or I'll offer at -102 which shows up on +102. All depends if I'm with the public at the moment or not.
 
Couldn't agree more with RJ about Matchbook. It'll definitely get your overall juice down. I'd rather have Pinny obviously, but I'm hoping to AVG. a -106 juice for the CFB season rather than a -110 and those 4 cents mean alot if you play a Fondy style card.


GL on the week with the plays. I feel less confident about AF today than I did Sunday, but still plan to play barring injury updates.
 
Heres the plays. Wanted to post them now while they are still around the current numbers. Any Dr. Bob movement in my favor will have me put more units on them.

Back tonight and Thursday with more thoughts. Rest of the week is shot.

Navy +4 -110
UAB -3 -110
Boston College -13.5 -110 4 units
Minnesota +7 -110
Air Force +4 -110 2 units
LSU -9.5 -110 5 units
Wisky-PSU u44 -110
UL-Cincy o66 -110 4 units


winner winner chicken dinner

:cheers:
 
Thanks P and G


going to do some quick write-yups as my next few days are very hectic..BRB
 
Navy +4 -110
UAB -3 -110
Boston College -13.5 -110 4 units
Minnesota +7 -110
Air Force +4 -110 2 units
LSU -9.5 -110 5 units
Wisky-PSU u44 -110
UL-Cincy o66 -110 4 units


Alright..some quick thoughts on the plays....courtesy of Alimony

UAB has shown steady improvement this year. As you know I faded them a few times but they are slowly getting better. Tulane did have a game against LSU but chalk that up to lethargicness by LSU and Tulane in a home spot against in-state big program. Tulane is still shady as fuck and when I see early movement like that against them(pk to -3) that tells me that this game may be a bit fishy.

Colly St has had some tough breaks and lately is going downhill. Just feel the team isn't all together right now and the Flyboys will control this one. Like Tulane..I don't trust them being "on the level"..which put me over the edge here. Bobby Stoll seems to agree..heh

Notre Dame has shown some improvement..more on defensive side but lets look at the facts. Purdue defense kind of went soft and let a lot of 3rd/4th down passes get completed while the offense settled all day long. That gave them a cover. Look at last weks boxscore plus the QB injury. ND had no business winning outright although you ats backers still woulda prolly won. This has left some value for BC this week as the -10 to -14 move showed. I think BC dominates here and wins going away..big.

Northwestern spread attack really hurt MSU last week. Their was also the typical sparty after a loss defensive performance. The thing is the Cats defense is horrid. Minny offense against bad defenses moves the ball. See Purdue, FAU etc games. Minny will score a lot. Yes, NW will get points but they have no busines laying a TD here.

Wisky-PSU is gonna be a brutal game to watch. Yes, the Badger defense is very average. At same time with no Scott and Morelli controlling things PSU will not "break-out" I thought this number should have been 40 or so. Wisky with no Luke Swan and some other injuries will struggle. I see a tight game won in 4th...17-13 and 21-17 stick in my head.

The over between the Pizza boys and Bearcats seems way to low. I thought low-70's and our guys here(Webb-Dmoney) have great writeups on this game in general. I think Cincy is good for 40...UL will score as well with the guys back at WR...Dmoneys 49-45 prediction is not out of consideration IMO.

LSU:

If you lean UK or on edge...read Rex's thread and consider. Know that Little is questionable at this point. I am not going off last week from UK. Andre' made some bad plays but they competed and could have won on the field without bone-headed plays. At the same point even if Litle plays they will be one-dimensional. Yes, Woodson is great, very steady QB and now a good game manager. The problem is I don't think they keep up. LSU will run and open up some big plays thru passing game. Situation doesn't favor them but I think their just too good here. Calling for a 38-21 kind of game




Missouri and Iowa are still possibilties:cheers:

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