October 1-31 Europe

[KJ]

I'll just put it all in one place, starting with Europa 10/1.

Lazio -124
Basel -1 -117
Tottenham/Monaco o2.5 +105
Schalke -1.5 -150
Athletic Bilbao/AZ o2.5 -120
Ajax ML +115
Liverpool -1 -119
PAOK +1 -111
Club Brugge ML -122
Napoli ML -117
Plzen/Villarreal o2.5 -125

Reality is that I have only one local, and these are the only lines afforded to me. That's a lot of games with minus signs in front of the juice, one of these days I might actually have to bite the bullet and go off shore to change lines and get better juice, Europa traditionally has just been tough to figure. I'm only taking PAOK because BVB play Bayern this weekend and hard to imagine this trip to Greece is high on the to do list mentally, then again PAOK host Olympiakos this weekend as well so we'll see.

 

[KJ]

Too many minus signs, makes a huge difference. 6-5 +.34 in Europa, coulda been worse.

Fri 10/2:

Celta Vigo -1 -125 (rather have the team total over 2 but don't have it available, talented club)

Mainz pk -125 x2 (Darmstadt fade after random draw at BVB)

Lille ML +105 (fascinating game, Lille have given up 4 but scored 2 in only 8 games, Montpellier love to give em up. Going against Montpellier sudden scoring surge)

Heracles/Heerenveen o 3

 

[~Utah]

Bol mate

 

[KJ]

8-7 +.99

+.65 yesterday, that lame azz pk to Darmstadt got it's rightful ending

10/3

Watford +.5 -130
Stoke pk +100 x2
Norwich ML +122
Sunderland pk +124
Southampton/Chelsea o2.5 -120

 

[KJ]

ChievoVerona +110

Barca -125
Sporting Gijon +293
Las Palmas -105

 

[KJ]

Oct 12-11-1, +3.52

Sat 4-4-1, +2.63

10/4

Liverpool +175
Man United/Arsenal o2.5 -125
Tottenham/Swansea o2.5 -115

Napoli +140
Inter Milan +103
Frosinone/Lazio o3 -105

Athletic Bilbao +135
Atletico Madrid pk +115
Rayo Vallecano +115
Villareal/Levante o2.5 +110

Schalke -140
Dortmund +1 -103 x2
Dortmund +490 x.5
Dortmund/Bayern o3 -115

Monaco -125
Bordeaux/Lorient o2.5 +110
PSG -1.5 +110
Caen pk -130 x2

 

[KJ]

add one more unit

Man United/Arsenal o2.5 -125

 

[~Utah]

gl mate

 

[braves]

good luck today

 

[KJ]

October 19-21-2, +2.11

Sun 7-10-1, -1.41 u

Figured it was far too many plays, at least hit a couple of the 2 unit wagers. Wish they'd all be as easy as the overs in England.

 

[KJ]

Going to use * for units 'cause it seems to be trendy

Euro's 10/8

Germany ML -220 (better value than the -1 @-135) 1*
Poland pk -120 1*
N Ireland ML +175 1*
Romania -1 +110 2*
Denmark +.5 +113 1*

 

[KJ]

1-3-1 Thur, -2.45

Oct -.34

Wrote some stuff up but lost it, only one for Fri

Switzerland -5 -108 2*

Yes, that's correct

 

[hugh613]

:cheers3:

 

[KJ]

Hugh, get some

I'm feeling pretty good about the Swiss today, and as I bump this wager up, this is a sure fire fade.

Another

Switzerland -5 -108 2*

Now that I've got 4 units on this, they will likely score 1 goal

 

[KJ]

1-0 Fri, +4.00

Oct +3.66

I hate big minus signs, but going to do it with Iceland as I did with Germans the other day. Didn't work too well there. But difference between laying one and ML at my lines, I have to play it this way...

Iceland ML -230 2*
Netherlands -1.5 -127 1*
Czech/Turkey draw +225 .5*
Wales/Bosnia-Herz draw +250 .5*
Belgium -3.5 -115 1*
Croatia -1.5 -105 3*
Norway -2 -117 .5*

 

[cxbbum]

gl KJ my brah....\m/

 

[KJ]

Yup I suck at international, way too many plays when my top play was good and I've figured out an error on my part in using ML instead of -1, it's cost me a bit of juice for sure. Nonetheless, Iceland get up 2-0 early and can't put the game away? gtfo.

1-5-1 today, -5.02

Oct -1.36

 

[KJ]

Alright, back in the saddle today. Thought I might be forcing a wager just because this is the only thing on today, but I really like Swansea today. I really like them in general, they have a 0 goal differential but are currently low on the table. Only problem is that the other team in Premiere League that I think is undervalued is Stoke. But I like the Welsh squad quite a bit at home.

Swansea City -104 2*

 

[KJ]

Adding:

Esbjerg/Aab o2.5 -116 .5*
Norrkoping/Elfsborg o3 -117 1*
Djugardens/Gothenburg o2.5 -108 .5*

 

[KJ]

Adding:

Sporting Gijon +108 1*

 

[KJ]

Adding:

Swansea City 1h +150 .5*

 

[KJ]

-1.58 today, -2.94 this month. All on Swansea really, they were never a threat. CL time, matchday 3 and this gets the hammer. Will chase if needed when they play again in a couple weeks, but like the game in London better.

Bayern/Arsenal o3 -117 7*
Roma +.5 -112 2*
BATE +1.5 +102 1*
Dinamo Zagreb ML +170 1*
Dynamo Kiev pk -111 1*
Valencia -1 -150 .5*
Zenit -112 2*

 

[hugh613]

Surprised you didn't go with Porto. Good luck with the games kj.

 

[KJ]

Stuck there, I have Porto -2 -123 which I don't really want, would lean over 3 at -103 but don't really like it either. 2-0 Porto seems right, I've got no Asian out so it is what it is. I should just go SOAL and lay the -565 on the ML. It's still a possibility, stay tuned.

 

[hugh613]

Stuck there, I have Porto -2 -123 which I don't really want, would lean over 3 at -103 but don't really like it either. 2-0 Porto seems right, I've got no Asian out so it is what it is. I should just go SOAL and lay the -565 on the ML. It's still a possibility, stay tuned.

Well, I wouldn't go that far LOL...

:cheers3:

 

[bluedevilboy]

Stuck there, I have Porto -2 -123 which I don't really want, would lean over 3 at -103 but don't really like it either. 2-0 Porto seems right, I've got no Asian out so it is what it is. I should just go SOAL and lay the -565 on the ML. It's still a possibility, stay tuned.

5D has Porto -1.5 available..

 

[KJ]

Ouch, -6.19 yesterday, the big one got me and teeed was spot on with his reasoning. Arse got the 3 points they demanded, and while Bayern had opportunities, that was far from an open game, ever. Will be on the chase in a couple weeks when I think Bayern may get the over on their own, and not having Asian lines or something to get on Porto at less than 2 yesterday cost me. I just will always prefer a local.

On to today..

Shakhtar/Malmo o2.5 -125 2*
PSG +112 1*
CSKA pk +131 1*
PSV/Wolfsburg o3 -112 2*
Atletico Madrid -2.5 -115 3* (ugh but Rex's thread explains it, I don't have Atletico tt but think it sails over)
Atletico/Astana o3 -138 1*
Monchengladbach +1 +108 1.5*

Lean under in Manchester and haven't a clue about Befica/Gala game, no thanks

 

[KJ]

-.56 on Wednesday, -9.69 this month...ugly figure and why I rarely go large on one play but plan on getting that one back

Missed out on my fade of Caen in Ligue 1 today, they're down 2-0 of course but I'll get them soon enough, don't like the other game in France. Germany, this one looks great...

Hamburg/Hoffenheim o2.5 -128 2*

And in Spain today, two teams I want to fade badly meet up, so over is a must when that happens. But also one team is at the top of the fade list there, so I must make both plays.

Espanyol/Rayo Vallecano o2.5 -119 2*
Rayo Vallecano ML +103 1*

These are fade worthy as my record shows, happy Friday :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

-.56 on Wednesday, -9.69 this month...ugly figure and why I rarely go large on one play but plan on getting that one back

Yup, although having said that, don't get too crazy... : )

Think I told you this before, but my first significant loss in soccer betting was in 2010 with Inter and Bayern. Both teams were scoring machines that season, so I just assumed the same would hold true when they met for the first leg at San Siro, so I went with my biggest soccer bet ever to that date. Instead, Van Gaal decided to park the bus, knowing full well the odds would be stacked against Inter at Allianz. Well, ended up getting my money back (and then some) on the return leg, so I guess the moral of the story here is don't trust Bayern on the road, but trust that they'll get it done at home (actually, they lost the return leg 3-2, but that's not the point). The odds are overwhelming that Bayern's going to come out attacking at home, because that is what they do, and Arsenal's not going to have a choice but to play along, because they're pretty much screwed if Olympiakos beat Zagreb.

Anyways, sorry for the tangent, LOL. Good luck with the games today kj.

:cheers3:

 

[KJ]

I'd have lost a lot more if I had wagered against Arsenal keeping a clean sheet, hell after watching the match I would have still bet against it.

 

[KJ]

+.47 Friday, down -9.22 for the month and watch a match that should have seen Hamburg score about 7 goals but that's why those pussies play for Hamburg, they can't finish

No play in the big one in Manchester today, but almost must take this. Too much history says I can't.

Sunderland ML +166 1*