Obie MLB 4/12

Oh But I Edo

Pretty much a regular
Another brutal 9th inning loss in Tex - on a 2 unit play. Big swing on the day as Boston, Mets delivered as expected. I am definitely over-reading totals on the day games, and will be pulling back there slightly. Another solid card, and a match-up in the Bronx going in the right direction. VERY high on Montgomery - more to follow shortly.

YTD: 13-14, - .77 Units

Yankees -108, 3 Units W +3 Units
Det -130, 1 Unit W +1 Unit

Bos -128, 1 Unit L -1.28 Units
NYM +110, 1 Unit W +1.1 Units
 
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Thoughts on yankees game (waiting on line to continue to drop, opened at -126, down to -107 currently)

Montgomery - First MLB start; which is my only real concern but the daygame helps as he has less time to stew/think. He commands 5 pitches to both sides of the plate, and is not a pure finesses lefty sitting in the low to mid 90's. He excelled at all levels, including a sub 3 ERA and sub 3 FIP last year across 2 levels. Leftys in NYY stadium help neutralize the short porch, added with command and 5 pitches is a plus. He was also a 3 year starter in college, giving him almost 7 full season of starting without a single start missed. He outpitched everyone in the yankees "competition" this spring, including Sevy who got the 4 spot. He was leaps and bounds ahead of Cess/Green/Mitchell, and commands nearly twice as many pitches as Sevy. He is near MLB ready that a prospect can, and although he doesnt have #1 stuff, he could be a #3 stalwart for years to come. Also he is 24, he is not a kid in his first level, but he isnt a 30 year AAAA type. Ive been waiting years for this type of NYY pitching prospect....not all hype, just a solid MLB ready starter.

One interesting thing to watch is his catcher today. Based on how Girardi loves set roles (see bullpen, 7-8-9), I expect Romine to start today, especially w the day off yesterday and how well he caught Pineda Monday. That said, Higashioka will have to start games, and this is the perfect day. He is a righty with 20 HR power against a lefty starter, he caught Montgomery the majority of his starts, and it allows Romine to start Tomorrow and Thursday before the yankees play 18 games in 20 days. I would LOVE to see Higashioka behind the plate today, and could sway this play even higher. Leaning first 3 unit play of the year here, with a very rested NYY bullpen.
 
Det -130, 1 Unit

Big fan of fulmer, and I have this at a full quarter off. This is the 3rd line this year I have a full 25 cents off, and I am 0-2 prior, so buyer beware. I do think the Minny start is a bit of a mirage and this is too good a spot at -130. Something is off here tho, as NBA said, seems like serious bait here...and im in.
 
Some thoughts on NYY:

The start went sort of as expected, although I was hoping for 5-6IP, 2ER. Joe kept him on pitch count which I didnt factor, but makes sense as he didnt top 77 in spring/AAA. Montgomery himself, I was impressed. His fastball command wasnt great but 7 Ks in 4.2 is fantastic at this level. He got swings and misses, although Weeks made him pay for his mistake. The NYY bullpen is lockdown making 5-6 IP all you need assuming you can have a lead.

Very impressed with Judge - dude K'd in damn near half his AB's last year, and is now sitting around 20% on the season. 3 HR in 3 games, and a single clocking in at 115MPH off the bat today. He wont be batting 8th that much longer...if ever again.

Adds for tonight:

Bos -128, 1 Unit
NYM +110, 1 Unit
 
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