Athletics vs. Astros Game 4: MLB Best Bets
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 3:35 p.m. ET (TBS) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Frankie Montas
Oakland starter Frankie Montas looks like he had a poor regular season. He was 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA.
However, his high ERA reflects a slump that he endured after suffering tightness in his back.
After a strong first four starts to his season, Montas allowed at least four earned runs in five of his next six starts.
In the one exception, he allowed two runs in five innings in Houston.
Montas is promising today because he looked strong in his regular season finale where he allowed zero runs in six innings.
While that season finale came against lowly Seattle, the point is that he is recovered, fit, in good form, and prepared for a longer outing.
Montas’ Stuff
Overall, Montas’ favorite pitch is his sinker.
With this pitch, Montas combines high velocity -- it averages 96 mph -- with good location.
Pitching charts show that he reliably places this pitch along the borders of the strike zone and distributing its location fairly evenly along different parts of the zone.
Whereas Montas favors his sinker still more emphatically against lefties, his favorite pitch against righties is his fastball.
His fastball is equally high-velocity. Likewise, five of its six most frequent strike locations by percentage are located along a border of the strike zone. He’s also great about varying its placement within the zone.
Montas vs. Astros Batters
Before Montas began suffering back tightness, he threw seven shutout innings against these Astros.
One should expect these sort of outings from Montas against the Astros because they rank 19th in slugging against his three favorite pitches — the sinker, slider, and fastball — from right-handed pitchers.
Among Houston batters, look for Alex Bregman to struggle. He’s 3-for-15 (.200) with three strikeouts in his career against Montas.
Oakland Bullpen
After enjoying a strong effort from Montas, Oakland can rely on some fresh arms.
Joakim Soria got yesterday off. He finished the regular season with a 2.82 ERA.
J.P. Wendelken is also fresh. He can go many innings. His regular season ERA was 1.80.
Lou Trivino is a third fresh option. In 3.1 regular season innings against the Astros, he allowed zero runs.
Dusty Baker: Key Astros Trend
In addition to Frankie Montas, one more factor that will help Oakland is actually Houston’s skipper.
The key trend is that Dusty Baker’s teams are currently suffering a 10-game losing-streak in potential series-clinching games in five- and seven-game postseason series.
Who Will Start For Houston?
Sportsbooks have not released odds for this game because Dusty has not yet announced who will start for Houston. But we want to be prepared.
In terms of having fresh arms, Houston’s bullpen is not in the greatest position. So we’re going to get somebody who can pitch a lot of innings.
Zack Greinke?
There are three possibilities. Zack Greinke could be ready. Dusty has been opaque when asked about his situation. But it seems established that he’s been having some kind of problem — perhaps soreness — with his arm.
Greinke last pitched on September 29. In each of his last seven regular season starts, he conceded at least three runs in six innings or fewer.
Two of those last seven starts came against Oakland, which produced seven runs in 12 innings against him.
Several Athletic batters would love to face him: Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, and Chad Pinder each hit over .300 in their career against Greinke.
Most notably, Khris Davis hits .455 and slugs 1.182 against Greinke.
Christian Javier or Luis Garcia?
Javier could step up from the bullpen where he pitched one relief inning on Monday.
In the regular season, he was 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the A’s.
Luis Garcia would be making his postseason debut.
He made his first career start against the A’s. While it was very good, he had the benefit of pitching in a lower-pressure environment and of being a lesser known guy in the MLB.
The A’s would be glad to see him because they rank 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
The Verdict
Houston is in a bad spot being managed by Dusty Baker.
Where Oakland will win this game, above all, is in its edge with starting pitching.
Behind Montas and a bevy of fresh and reliable arms, the A’s will even this series at two-games a piece.
Best Bet: A’s ML (Odds TBA)
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 3:35 p.m. ET (TBS) at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Frankie Montas
Oakland starter Frankie Montas looks like he had a poor regular season. He was 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA.
However, his high ERA reflects a slump that he endured after suffering tightness in his back.
After a strong first four starts to his season, Montas allowed at least four earned runs in five of his next six starts.
In the one exception, he allowed two runs in five innings in Houston.
Montas is promising today because he looked strong in his regular season finale where he allowed zero runs in six innings.
While that season finale came against lowly Seattle, the point is that he is recovered, fit, in good form, and prepared for a longer outing.
Montas’ Stuff
Overall, Montas’ favorite pitch is his sinker.
With this pitch, Montas combines high velocity -- it averages 96 mph -- with good location.
Pitching charts show that he reliably places this pitch along the borders of the strike zone and distributing its location fairly evenly along different parts of the zone.
Whereas Montas favors his sinker still more emphatically against lefties, his favorite pitch against righties is his fastball.
His fastball is equally high-velocity. Likewise, five of its six most frequent strike locations by percentage are located along a border of the strike zone. He’s also great about varying its placement within the zone.
Montas vs. Astros Batters
Before Montas began suffering back tightness, he threw seven shutout innings against these Astros.
One should expect these sort of outings from Montas against the Astros because they rank 19th in slugging against his three favorite pitches — the sinker, slider, and fastball — from right-handed pitchers.
Among Houston batters, look for Alex Bregman to struggle. He’s 3-for-15 (.200) with three strikeouts in his career against Montas.
Oakland Bullpen
After enjoying a strong effort from Montas, Oakland can rely on some fresh arms.
Joakim Soria got yesterday off. He finished the regular season with a 2.82 ERA.
J.P. Wendelken is also fresh. He can go many innings. His regular season ERA was 1.80.
Lou Trivino is a third fresh option. In 3.1 regular season innings against the Astros, he allowed zero runs.
Dusty Baker: Key Astros Trend
In addition to Frankie Montas, one more factor that will help Oakland is actually Houston’s skipper.
The key trend is that Dusty Baker’s teams are currently suffering a 10-game losing-streak in potential series-clinching games in five- and seven-game postseason series.
Who Will Start For Houston?
Sportsbooks have not released odds for this game because Dusty has not yet announced who will start for Houston. But we want to be prepared.
In terms of having fresh arms, Houston’s bullpen is not in the greatest position. So we’re going to get somebody who can pitch a lot of innings.
Zack Greinke?
There are three possibilities. Zack Greinke could be ready. Dusty has been opaque when asked about his situation. But it seems established that he’s been having some kind of problem — perhaps soreness — with his arm.
Greinke last pitched on September 29. In each of his last seven regular season starts, he conceded at least three runs in six innings or fewer.
Two of those last seven starts came against Oakland, which produced seven runs in 12 innings against him.
Several Athletic batters would love to face him: Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, and Chad Pinder each hit over .300 in their career against Greinke.
Most notably, Khris Davis hits .455 and slugs 1.182 against Greinke.
Christian Javier or Luis Garcia?
Javier could step up from the bullpen where he pitched one relief inning on Monday.
In the regular season, he was 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the A’s.
Luis Garcia would be making his postseason debut.
He made his first career start against the A’s. While it was very good, he had the benefit of pitching in a lower-pressure environment and of being a lesser known guy in the MLB.
The A’s would be glad to see him because they rank 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
The Verdict
Houston is in a bad spot being managed by Dusty Baker.
Where Oakland will win this game, above all, is in its edge with starting pitching.
Behind Montas and a bevy of fresh and reliable arms, the A’s will even this series at two-games a piece.
Best Bet: A’s ML (Odds TBA)
