O
O-State
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4-3 on plays last week, 1-2 on strong opinions, 3-4 on TMO's. Colorado and UConn were near wins, but the Buffs as bad as they are should never be counted on as a play. UConn I knew it would be a close game so Rutgers win was always possible but UConn was the only side to take. VT I miscapped, had TO's right but thought everything else would be even and it wasn't.
-----------I want to say something about TOSU-MSU. I think it's a complete misrepresentation of Michigan State and Ohio State as far as the "body" of these teams, concerning MSU O and TOSU D. Last year the game in Columbus was domination much the same way, I think MSU had two defensive touchdowns or something to make it look like it wasn't. But anyhow, Michigan State LY had 59 rushing yards and 185 yards of Total Offense. Last season, Michigan State DOMINATED everyone else on their schedule with that rush offense. 172 on top 2 rush D Boston College, 191 on Michigan, 241 on Wisconsin, 145 on Penn State, 144 on Pitt, 160 on Iowa, 5 games over 200. Their lowest output for the year was 142. They had over 300 yards of total yards every game and against Ohio State they get 185. And Ohio State admittedly the defensive tackles were the weakness last season, they allowed 142, 161, 139, 260, and 152 to LSU. Illini and LSU only teams I'd take over Michigan State rushing. Now this year MSU is running great again and TOSU holds them to mirror numbers, 52 rush yards, 188 passing. This is what is called a great matchup. Before the play begins, you could tell TOSU players knew what was going to happen and MSU had nooo chance. I've witnessed TOSU hold some teams under 200 total yards and I've got to say none of them had quite the same feel of the Michigan State games the last two years. It's really hard to put a finger on.
PLAYS
OLE MISS
A pretty good 3-4 team here in Ole Miss. I figured this would be a square pick but only 56% are on Mississippi here. I see both teams having a very good rush offense. Texas and Bama are really stout rush defenses so outside of that Arkansas has been great. Rush defense though is big edge Ole Miss. Bama, Texas, UF are great but still shouldn't give up 328, 208, 278. Holding Auburn and Kentucky under 100 is nothing. Ole Miss also showed me they could stop the run last week vs. Bama giving up just 107, 221 less than Arkansas gave up to Bama, and also held UF to 154 less rush yards. Pass wise, show me a team outside of these two that has faced tougher pass defenses, Wake, Vandy, South Carolina, Bama, Florida, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky. Both have put up similar pass yards against tuff defenses. Both quarterbacks have been interception prone. Now pass defense I think it's really pretty even, neither are great. Statistic wise Arkansas has the edge but Bama, UF, Texas, had no reason to pass. UF some reason, put 236 up. Auburn can't pass, neither can ULM, and Brian Hartline put 284 up. Nutt at his press conference this week said some encouraging things about Arky defensive players on line, linebacker, and then said they are a little thin at cornerback. And he would know. Of course Ole Miss gave up 267 to Wake, 319 to Florida, and 327 to South Carolina. The one thing I know is Ole Miss plays an aggressive brand of defense, maybe that will force some Dick turnovers. Ole Miss right now is playing better as big underdogs and blowing away Vandy, South Carolina type games with turnovers. Nutt wants this game real bad I expect a great effort. Might end up like UConn-Rutgers but I think there is only one side here.
ALABAMA
The Georgia vs. Tennessee game was 13 points and now this is 7. Situationally it's alot better spot for Tenny but the difference between the teams is huge. If I'm betting against situationally I'll take Bama all day Tenny proved vs. Florida they can't raise their game. Auburn and Mississippi State have no offense and that is why Tenny could stay around. Morley and Berry had pick 6's in the Miss State game. If Bama gets over 20 they probably cover. Tenny is still a team that can't pass, and the run disparity will look something like the 148-1 Georgia game.
MIZZOURI
If Mizzouri shows up and not in the doldrums they should cover.
OKLAHOMA
Kansas State passing quite frankly a little overrated. Only put 237 up on Colorado last week and have yet to put up over 300 once this year on someone not named Montana State or North Texas. The problems Kansas presented to the weakness of the OU defense are not as prevalent with Kansas State. Sooners will dominate rush battle much more than they did vs. Jayhawks and pass as well. How is this line not at least 3 touchdowns. Sooners have Nebraska on deck so only question is do Sooners show up. What I do know is Oklahoma and Missouri might be the best teams in the country at covering large numbers against inferior opponents.
ILLINOIS
I like this Illinois team and I think their undervalued in the public's eye. Wisconsin is a train wreck. Even if the stats come out even the fact is I think you have to put something in to account for Wisconsin miscues wether it be special teams, turnovers, penalties, dropped balls, etc. When you do it consistently do it it's part of who you are. But I see the rush battle as pretty even rush offenses but Illini better rush defense, either way pretty close statistically. Afraid somewhat Wisky could pound here even though I think Illini rush D underrated. Pass offense big edge Illini. What kept Wisky in game last week was big pass edge on Iowa. Illini much more explosive. Pass defenses I'd say even.
PENN STATE
The Bucks, in the shoe, at night? It'll be tuff but I'm capping the better team here. Texas did it against a better TOSU squad. Penn State plays in a stadium more hostile at night already. Once again, take out last week's TOSU performance and tell me who you take. Penn State has the veteran qb with more leadership, the better all around qb, the better passing game, better offensive line, better defensive line, better defensive coordinator. As a team of all around athletes on the whole roster, I take Ohio State hands down. But the ones who get playing time for Penn State are very very good. A very knowledgeable person on an Ohio State board went to see Penn State in the spring and said the exact same thing, Ohio State has better all around athletes but Penn State is better in the trenches. That is what I have witnessed this year. Pryor is not going to get loose on this Penn State defense I don't believe. I have noticed Juice Williams have success on PSU the last two years, but the attacks are different here. TOSU does not run the option. I expect the Bradley zone to fluster the young Pryor. If anything, I expect Clark to have success on the ground. TOSU can keep the running game close as I think Beanie can pick some up, but the PSU Oline and Daryl Clark are the difference. I think he deserves to be a heisman frontrunner and if PSU wins this I see them in the Orange.
INDIANA
Some sharps must be on this saw the line drop from 10 now it's almost at 7. Kellen Lewis listed as questionable now with a sore hammy. IMO Chappell better passing qb but now question it does take away explosiveness and some things with both on field at same time. Why I like this game is Indiana has been made out to look like complete garbage vs. Iowa and Illinois. The Hawks and Illini were pissed off coming off losses and they contained the ability to physically dominate IU in the trenches and manhandle them with better athletes. Now we get to more level playing field here. IU is the team in desperation mode, at home, knowing they finally have a winnable game. You can't get any better situationally for IU. And IMO Indiana is not as bad as Iowa and Illinios made them out to be. They played Michigan State and Minnesota down to the wire. If you look at this roster, they are not any different than last year's team that went to a bowl now. ---Last year's game it was a 31-28 game NW at home. Prior two matchups dating back to 2003 in Steele were overtimes.
LSU
Think it's a good matchup for LSU playing at home. Last year's Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, those are clearly different types of matchups as far as being dynamic. I think even Auburn this year with the spread created some pass opportunities. South Carolina the straight drop back, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia I perceive them as better matchups for LSU.
--These are two very similar teams in that they want to and have to establish the run. Last year Georgia's two losses were the only two games they lost the rushing battle. South Carolina they lost by 12 yards and a close loss, Tennessee they got beaten 190-68 and blown out. So this will be interesting, but LSU I am going to put my money on them to win the rushing battle as I think they have a better OLine and DLine. After what Bama did this year especially running you have to think LSU can, and BTW that's another loss Georgia lost the running battle and game. More I think about it more I like LSU.
STRONG OPINIONS
MICHIGAN STATE
Where is this line if you take out Mich State's last outing?? Refer to the top of this thread where I describe the TOSU-MSU matchup. Michigan State rebounded fine last year to dominate with Ringer every game after including 191 on this Michigan defense. Defensively Michigan State's weakness is the run this year as it was last year and they held a better Michigan OLine to 100 yards. They had every right to win the game last year before the drive and patented Michigan fade corner endzone TD. Now how would you compare last year's Michigan club to this year's club? Michigan is not going to a bowl this year folks. MSU is nearly identical to last year's club. Situationally you have to love MSU in this spot. Dantonio raised the level of his club last year for the Michigan game and anyone could tell that was the case. Now they are coming off a drubbing and you could see the steam in Dantonio as that game was ending. And if Brandon Graham or somoene guaranteed a victory I'm sure MSU will take that.
--Edit: Michigan's strength is their run defense so their is some concern here and I can certainly see why people think Michigan matches up great, however, Notre Dame, Illinois, Wisky, Penn State all ran pretty well on Michigan and I expect State to move the ball.
WAKE FOREST
Wake and Maryland are by far the most veteran teams in the ACC. Miami is not. The best thing Miami has done to date is beat Duke last weak convincingly, and maybe that says more about Duke. Take away last week's loss by Wake and Miami's win. Wake fared exceptionally better against Florida State. I'd give a rush defense edge to Wake but everything is pretty equal. Except with what I have seen with my eyes and I just think Wake should not be laying points to Miami. Veteran Wake coming off this loss should be ready like they were vs. Clemson except going on the road.
TMO'S
MINNESOTA
I think Purdue might be the worst team in the Big Ten. Minnesota is greatly improved and are turning into a physical football team. They will win the rushing department. Pass edge to Purdue here. Roof has really improved this defense but gave up some yards last outing. Still, I think Minnesota is definately the better team coming off a bye, but traveling to Purdue.
RUTGERS
Only reason I'm considering these guys is the turnovers have ceased the last 3 games. I do think they are starting to realize what time of team they are and form to that identity, one different than expected coming into this season which might of startled them to begin. As a result the defense is starting to carry, 175 vs. WVU, 97 to Cincy, and only 117 to UConn on the ground isn't too bad. But let's be honest these aren't two dimensional teams. UNC is the last two dimensional team Rutgers has faced. What is worrysome is UConn, after giving up a safety and being down 2 scores late the urgency kicked in and they passed it down the field on Rutgers with ease. Pitt also plays these types of games close. Buffalo, BG, Cuse. Navy might be the last blowout. Part of the Rutgers identity right now is keeping games close with defense, no turnovers.
FLORIDA
Meyer off a bye best in country. Brooks has to wondering how this happened two years in a row. Kentucky defense has giving up some big rush numbers to Bama and Arkansas, over 200. The Bama game really could of been alot worse score wise. But Florida is the most dynamic team Kentucky has faced to date. They will put points up, and in covering a large spread you have to know the other team won't put points up. Dickey Lyons out, Micah Johson out, Florida needs to keep winning big for BCS. Dogs on deck though. I think the bye is really important here. In 05 and 07 UF did not cover prior to Georgia. In 06 they did vs. LSU but they had a bye week before the Georgia game. Last year they covered but they had a bye prior to the game preceding Georgia, ala this year, so they might prep during bye for Dogs.
-----------I want to say something about TOSU-MSU. I think it's a complete misrepresentation of Michigan State and Ohio State as far as the "body" of these teams, concerning MSU O and TOSU D. Last year the game in Columbus was domination much the same way, I think MSU had two defensive touchdowns or something to make it look like it wasn't. But anyhow, Michigan State LY had 59 rushing yards and 185 yards of Total Offense. Last season, Michigan State DOMINATED everyone else on their schedule with that rush offense. 172 on top 2 rush D Boston College, 191 on Michigan, 241 on Wisconsin, 145 on Penn State, 144 on Pitt, 160 on Iowa, 5 games over 200. Their lowest output for the year was 142. They had over 300 yards of total yards every game and against Ohio State they get 185. And Ohio State admittedly the defensive tackles were the weakness last season, they allowed 142, 161, 139, 260, and 152 to LSU. Illini and LSU only teams I'd take over Michigan State rushing. Now this year MSU is running great again and TOSU holds them to mirror numbers, 52 rush yards, 188 passing. This is what is called a great matchup. Before the play begins, you could tell TOSU players knew what was going to happen and MSU had nooo chance. I've witnessed TOSU hold some teams under 200 total yards and I've got to say none of them had quite the same feel of the Michigan State games the last two years. It's really hard to put a finger on.
PLAYS
OLE MISS
A pretty good 3-4 team here in Ole Miss. I figured this would be a square pick but only 56% are on Mississippi here. I see both teams having a very good rush offense. Texas and Bama are really stout rush defenses so outside of that Arkansas has been great. Rush defense though is big edge Ole Miss. Bama, Texas, UF are great but still shouldn't give up 328, 208, 278. Holding Auburn and Kentucky under 100 is nothing. Ole Miss also showed me they could stop the run last week vs. Bama giving up just 107, 221 less than Arkansas gave up to Bama, and also held UF to 154 less rush yards. Pass wise, show me a team outside of these two that has faced tougher pass defenses, Wake, Vandy, South Carolina, Bama, Florida, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky. Both have put up similar pass yards against tuff defenses. Both quarterbacks have been interception prone. Now pass defense I think it's really pretty even, neither are great. Statistic wise Arkansas has the edge but Bama, UF, Texas, had no reason to pass. UF some reason, put 236 up. Auburn can't pass, neither can ULM, and Brian Hartline put 284 up. Nutt at his press conference this week said some encouraging things about Arky defensive players on line, linebacker, and then said they are a little thin at cornerback. And he would know. Of course Ole Miss gave up 267 to Wake, 319 to Florida, and 327 to South Carolina. The one thing I know is Ole Miss plays an aggressive brand of defense, maybe that will force some Dick turnovers. Ole Miss right now is playing better as big underdogs and blowing away Vandy, South Carolina type games with turnovers. Nutt wants this game real bad I expect a great effort. Might end up like UConn-Rutgers but I think there is only one side here.
ALABAMA
The Georgia vs. Tennessee game was 13 points and now this is 7. Situationally it's alot better spot for Tenny but the difference between the teams is huge. If I'm betting against situationally I'll take Bama all day Tenny proved vs. Florida they can't raise their game. Auburn and Mississippi State have no offense and that is why Tenny could stay around. Morley and Berry had pick 6's in the Miss State game. If Bama gets over 20 they probably cover. Tenny is still a team that can't pass, and the run disparity will look something like the 148-1 Georgia game.
MIZZOURI
If Mizzouri shows up and not in the doldrums they should cover.
OKLAHOMA
Kansas State passing quite frankly a little overrated. Only put 237 up on Colorado last week and have yet to put up over 300 once this year on someone not named Montana State or North Texas. The problems Kansas presented to the weakness of the OU defense are not as prevalent with Kansas State. Sooners will dominate rush battle much more than they did vs. Jayhawks and pass as well. How is this line not at least 3 touchdowns. Sooners have Nebraska on deck so only question is do Sooners show up. What I do know is Oklahoma and Missouri might be the best teams in the country at covering large numbers against inferior opponents.
ILLINOIS
I like this Illinois team and I think their undervalued in the public's eye. Wisconsin is a train wreck. Even if the stats come out even the fact is I think you have to put something in to account for Wisconsin miscues wether it be special teams, turnovers, penalties, dropped balls, etc. When you do it consistently do it it's part of who you are. But I see the rush battle as pretty even rush offenses but Illini better rush defense, either way pretty close statistically. Afraid somewhat Wisky could pound here even though I think Illini rush D underrated. Pass offense big edge Illini. What kept Wisky in game last week was big pass edge on Iowa. Illini much more explosive. Pass defenses I'd say even.
PENN STATE
The Bucks, in the shoe, at night? It'll be tuff but I'm capping the better team here. Texas did it against a better TOSU squad. Penn State plays in a stadium more hostile at night already. Once again, take out last week's TOSU performance and tell me who you take. Penn State has the veteran qb with more leadership, the better all around qb, the better passing game, better offensive line, better defensive line, better defensive coordinator. As a team of all around athletes on the whole roster, I take Ohio State hands down. But the ones who get playing time for Penn State are very very good. A very knowledgeable person on an Ohio State board went to see Penn State in the spring and said the exact same thing, Ohio State has better all around athletes but Penn State is better in the trenches. That is what I have witnessed this year. Pryor is not going to get loose on this Penn State defense I don't believe. I have noticed Juice Williams have success on PSU the last two years, but the attacks are different here. TOSU does not run the option. I expect the Bradley zone to fluster the young Pryor. If anything, I expect Clark to have success on the ground. TOSU can keep the running game close as I think Beanie can pick some up, but the PSU Oline and Daryl Clark are the difference. I think he deserves to be a heisman frontrunner and if PSU wins this I see them in the Orange.
INDIANA
Some sharps must be on this saw the line drop from 10 now it's almost at 7. Kellen Lewis listed as questionable now with a sore hammy. IMO Chappell better passing qb but now question it does take away explosiveness and some things with both on field at same time. Why I like this game is Indiana has been made out to look like complete garbage vs. Iowa and Illinois. The Hawks and Illini were pissed off coming off losses and they contained the ability to physically dominate IU in the trenches and manhandle them with better athletes. Now we get to more level playing field here. IU is the team in desperation mode, at home, knowing they finally have a winnable game. You can't get any better situationally for IU. And IMO Indiana is not as bad as Iowa and Illinios made them out to be. They played Michigan State and Minnesota down to the wire. If you look at this roster, they are not any different than last year's team that went to a bowl now. ---Last year's game it was a 31-28 game NW at home. Prior two matchups dating back to 2003 in Steele were overtimes.
LSU
Think it's a good matchup for LSU playing at home. Last year's Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, those are clearly different types of matchups as far as being dynamic. I think even Auburn this year with the spread created some pass opportunities. South Carolina the straight drop back, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia I perceive them as better matchups for LSU.
--These are two very similar teams in that they want to and have to establish the run. Last year Georgia's two losses were the only two games they lost the rushing battle. South Carolina they lost by 12 yards and a close loss, Tennessee they got beaten 190-68 and blown out. So this will be interesting, but LSU I am going to put my money on them to win the rushing battle as I think they have a better OLine and DLine. After what Bama did this year especially running you have to think LSU can, and BTW that's another loss Georgia lost the running battle and game. More I think about it more I like LSU.
STRONG OPINIONS
MICHIGAN STATE
Where is this line if you take out Mich State's last outing?? Refer to the top of this thread where I describe the TOSU-MSU matchup. Michigan State rebounded fine last year to dominate with Ringer every game after including 191 on this Michigan defense. Defensively Michigan State's weakness is the run this year as it was last year and they held a better Michigan OLine to 100 yards. They had every right to win the game last year before the drive and patented Michigan fade corner endzone TD. Now how would you compare last year's Michigan club to this year's club? Michigan is not going to a bowl this year folks. MSU is nearly identical to last year's club. Situationally you have to love MSU in this spot. Dantonio raised the level of his club last year for the Michigan game and anyone could tell that was the case. Now they are coming off a drubbing and you could see the steam in Dantonio as that game was ending. And if Brandon Graham or somoene guaranteed a victory I'm sure MSU will take that.
--Edit: Michigan's strength is their run defense so their is some concern here and I can certainly see why people think Michigan matches up great, however, Notre Dame, Illinois, Wisky, Penn State all ran pretty well on Michigan and I expect State to move the ball.
WAKE FOREST
Wake and Maryland are by far the most veteran teams in the ACC. Miami is not. The best thing Miami has done to date is beat Duke last weak convincingly, and maybe that says more about Duke. Take away last week's loss by Wake and Miami's win. Wake fared exceptionally better against Florida State. I'd give a rush defense edge to Wake but everything is pretty equal. Except with what I have seen with my eyes and I just think Wake should not be laying points to Miami. Veteran Wake coming off this loss should be ready like they were vs. Clemson except going on the road.
TMO'S
MINNESOTA
I think Purdue might be the worst team in the Big Ten. Minnesota is greatly improved and are turning into a physical football team. They will win the rushing department. Pass edge to Purdue here. Roof has really improved this defense but gave up some yards last outing. Still, I think Minnesota is definately the better team coming off a bye, but traveling to Purdue.
RUTGERS
Only reason I'm considering these guys is the turnovers have ceased the last 3 games. I do think they are starting to realize what time of team they are and form to that identity, one different than expected coming into this season which might of startled them to begin. As a result the defense is starting to carry, 175 vs. WVU, 97 to Cincy, and only 117 to UConn on the ground isn't too bad. But let's be honest these aren't two dimensional teams. UNC is the last two dimensional team Rutgers has faced. What is worrysome is UConn, after giving up a safety and being down 2 scores late the urgency kicked in and they passed it down the field on Rutgers with ease. Pitt also plays these types of games close. Buffalo, BG, Cuse. Navy might be the last blowout. Part of the Rutgers identity right now is keeping games close with defense, no turnovers.
FLORIDA
Meyer off a bye best in country. Brooks has to wondering how this happened two years in a row. Kentucky defense has giving up some big rush numbers to Bama and Arkansas, over 200. The Bama game really could of been alot worse score wise. But Florida is the most dynamic team Kentucky has faced to date. They will put points up, and in covering a large spread you have to know the other team won't put points up. Dickey Lyons out, Micah Johson out, Florida needs to keep winning big for BCS. Dogs on deck though. I think the bye is really important here. In 05 and 07 UF did not cover prior to Georgia. In 06 they did vs. LSU but they had a bye week before the Georgia game. Last year they covered but they had a bye prior to the game preceding Georgia, ala this year, so they might prep during bye for Dogs.
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