O-State Week 4 CFB

[O-State]

First I want to share the importance of getting good #'s with my example from last week.

My plays were
<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CDan%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <wunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <wontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]-->Ohio State +10
Georgia -7
Oregon -8
Iowa State +16
Bowling Green +17
Penn State -28
USF -4
Wisconsin -3
Cal -14
Houston -2


That's a 3-5-2 record. If I would of bought down, which bookmaker allows 2 points, or better yet gotten a better line earlier in the week the record goes to 6-3-1.
<o></o>


Preliminary Leans for this week are
<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CDan%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com<img src=" images="" smilies="" redface.gif="" border="0" alt="" title="Embarrassment" smilieid="2" class="inlineimg"></o:smarttagtype><st1><st1>Kansas</st1><st1>State</st1></st1> -3.5
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Colorado</st1></st1:state> +3
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Mississippi</st1></st1:state> -5<o></o>
Georgia Tech -7.5<o></o>
LSU -3<o></o>
<st1>Rutgers</st1> -4<o></o>
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Iowa</st1></st1:state> +1<o></o>
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Utah</st1></st1:state> -7.5<o></o>
A&M +3.5<o></o>
<st1>East Carolina</st1> -7.5<o></o>
Rice +30<o></o>
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Idaho</st1></st1:state> +5<o></o>
Tennessee +7<o></o>
<st1><st1>Arizona</st1> <st1>State</st1></st1> +6<o></o>
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Minnesota</st1></st1:state> -6.5<o></o>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1>Kent</st1> </st1:country-region>+2.5<o></o>
Wake Forest +4
Arizona -1
UNC -2
Notre Dame +9
Houston -6
Eastern Michigan +21.5

 

[RetroVK]

Good point about price ostate ... i had similar close games .. losing a total by 1 point and getting a push as well. gettin gone point the best of either number changes my results considrably as well.

good numbers are as important as good capping.

like rutgers , utah , vols , and a good portion of your leans. Disagree on tamu and goergia tech.

gl brutha

 

[O-State]

<st1><st1>1st cut

Kansas</st1><st1> State</st1></st1> -3.5
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Colorado</st1></st1:state> +3
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Mississippi</st1></st1:state> -5<o></o>
Georgia Tech -7.5<o></o>
LSU -3
<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Utah</st1></st1:state> -7.5<o></o>
Tennessee +7<o></o>
<st1><st1>Arizona</st1> <st1>State</st1></st1> +6<o></o>

Talk Me offs
Notre Dame +9
Boston College -10
Kent +2.5
San Jose State +10
among others

<o></o>

 

[O-State]

Removing Arizona State, realize lots of ?s on that team.

 

[broadwayjoe]

like the majority of those o-state...i probably won't play it, but let's talk a little bit about that kstate game when you get a chance...i lean louisville, but i'm about to eliminate em...what is it that you like about kstate?

 

[O-State]

I had Kansas State lined as more of a favorite before the lines came out. From my vantage point I see KSU as being a better football team, but traveling cross country to another opponents stadium sure has been a bad trend lately hasn't it, that has me very worried as well as Kansas State's record ATS on the road, it's atrocious.

Trying to cap this as an opening season game because we know so little about these teams. What we do know is Louisville got dominated by a inept offensive Kentucky team, Louisville was really bad last year and this year lose most of the bright spots from that team along with all 3 starting linebackers.

Kansas State really did fade to end last season but started off impressively. They should be really potent on offense with everybody back but Jordy Nelson, and defensively I love the Virginia transfer Olu Hall at linebacker.

---Opening weekend games we saw experience was a telling point in winners. Louisville has 9 returning starters, which is tied for the least amount in the NCAA. I look at this as Kansas State's offense vastly greater than Louisville's offense, and I'd even probably give them an edge defensively although Louisville should be improved.

 

[broadwayjoe]

thanks o-state....still lookin over this one, but i think it's gonna be a no play...some good cappers on the ksu side

 

[O-State]

Played Kansas State, Colorado, Colorado/WVU U, and UConn during week. Didn't post them so will not go toward posted record. Did not officially post plays first three weeks so 0-0 but am unofficially around 50%.


Saturday Posted----only 10 are straight bets, the others are leans in a throwaway parlay or two and an attemtp to mimmick fondy.
Ole Miss
LSU
LSU/Aub U
Utah ML
Tenny ML
UNC
Miami
Rutgers ML
Toledo ML
Iowa State ML
Iowa State/UNLV U
BC
BC/UCF U
Georgia
Arizona
Kent State ML
ECU/NC State U
Boise/Oregon U
SJSU
Iowa
Arkansas
A&M/Miami U

 

[RetroVK]

which are the ten straight plays ?

love a lot of these plays. gl tomorrow

 

[O-State]

large units on Ole Miss, LSU/Aub U, medium on LSU, UNC, Tenny ML. Small on Arizona, Miami, Georgia, ISU/UNLV U. Like Rutgers and Utah ahead of Zona Georgia but lines don't merit straight bet, have to mitigate risk with moneyline and so I threw them in a favorite moneyline parlay.

Also put BC, BC/UCF U in a 2 teamer small parlay. Figure if BC covers the under is in session ala vs. Kent State earlier this year. Those two have to be played together IMO. Lot of games like that this week I think never played so many totals.

Also threw in a nice ML dog parlay, Kent, Iowa State, Toledo, Tenny, SJSU.

 

[RetroVK]

gotcha .. best of luck .. like i said .. love quite a few of those. hope we win.

 

[carolinablue]

Locking in early lines has a definitely possibility of coming into play big time this week, as a number of lines moved more than just a point this week. LSU, UNC, SJSU, and Utah are all examples of lines that could have up to a 3pt variation depending on when they were locked in, so will be interesting to see if it matters when all is said and done. Best of luck this weekend.

 

[O-State]

6-16, gulp. 6-10 ATS, 0-6 on Totals.

4-5 on straights but large bets lost. Biggest play Ole Miss +200 yard edge 5 TO's hurts most.

BC touchdown instead of downing it lost the BC and Under parlay going over by 1.