O
O-State
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LW 5-5-1 on Plays, 3-0 on Strong Opinions, 2-1 on TMO's, 0-2 on Totals. Totals ruined a profitable day on plays, but hit a parlay and had my best day of the season so I'm actually in decent plus money but would like to finish strong. As well as stop having plays that I regret.
On to the week of the dog.
PLAYS
GEORGIA TECH
Waiting to see some stuff on Nesbitt tommorow before I lock it, hopefully Bob don't jump on. I saw Florida State kill this Miami team for 281 yards on the ground with misdirection. Ponder ran it a lot that game, faking it to Smith, handing it to Smith, Miami had no answer. FSU had reverses, flow that active Cane D one way, go the other way. Wake Forest also is a misdirection offense, and they ran for 195 yards on Miami. Here’s what Shannon said in preparation, “If guys are doing their job and playing assignment football, you'll be successful.... You have to have everybody chasing the football. If you don't, you're going to have a tough time." I agree with the assignment part, but not the chasing part. Miami FL is the classic over pursuing aggressive defense. He also said they have to play high because that’s how you turn GT over by tackling high. I think situationally GT with the bye, get this game at home in primetime.
OLE MISS
Just think this is a good matchup as far as Ole Miss’s style running the ball compared to LSU’s defense of the run. Defensively Ole Miss has woke up on defending the run and they held a similar power run Alabama to 104 rushing. The Mississippi run defense is 13<SUP>th</SUP> nationally. Passing wise I think Ole Miss, you can put yards on them. LSU even though the qb play is iffy, they gamble and they can move it. In fact I think that’s why Lee is playing, he can do some good things. But it’s just not worth the mistakes. He has been good for at least 1 pick a game and the pick 6’s are what are just absolutely killers. Nutt in a rivalry, especially vs. LSU, he knows how to run on them, Nutt is loosey goosey. Look for a kickoff return edge here too but I’m banking on a big run edge.
NC STATE
Getting DD here in a rivalry. Made this line -4 UNC myself. NSTU has really come on since getting healthy and that qb Russell Wilson keeps them in every game. Any game I have that kid at the helm I like my chances at staying within 10. T.J. Yates is coming back for UNC this week, but Sexton has been playing so well, qb competition to play this week according the Butch, maybe not the best thing. Also, NSTU has been gaining confidence every week now, and are starting to buy into O’Brien and play fundamental football. Should note last year to end the season NSTU had a chance at a bowl berth and was embarrassed in a 0-30+ blowout, and they were starting to come on strong somewhat towards the end prior. Just think this is a different NSTU team personally and I don’t see anything that says UNC has big edges anywhere this conference is too close.
MICHIGAN STATE
MSU has only lost two games, and been blown out in one. Ohio State was a bad matchup, pure and simple, dating back to last year. It was a 52-216 run difference. Wisky out rushed MSU 281-25. 200 yard rush difference in those two games and that is what MSU is built upon. Good news is they somehow won the Wisky game. IMO I just think PSU cannot hold MSU down like that. PSU line scheme I think is different. No one is going to run on PSU easily though, it will be a chore for MSU but they should operate a bit. Defensively I’m kind of worried I think PSU can run on MSU for 200 yards possibility. What I like is that Clark has struggled lately, really struggled. MSU off bye, too good of team to lay this much in the rivalry.
TENNY/VANDY UNDER
Tenny 105 pass offense, 24 pass defense. Vandy 102 pass offense, 23 pass defense. Tenny 105 rush offense, 24 rush defense. Vandy 57 rush offense, 54 rush defense. Is there ever any better numbers for an under???
STRONG LEANS
IOWA
----The Minney run defense surprisingly only gave up 116 last week to Wisky after two 200 yard games allowed against much worse run teams. OSU, NW, MICH run attacks vs. WISKY, ILLI??? Maybe those real strung out zone’s hurt them. What we can accurately project is Minney rush yards. They are going to struggle to get 100 yards as when you break it down they have only had over 100 yards rushing in conference on Illinois and Purdue. And they barely did those games. 5 out of 7 games Minney could not get over 100 yards in Big Ten play, and honestly IU, NW, Mich, Wisky aren’t great run defenses. Iowa is going to get 130 + I would say. Passing wise, Iowa is always around 200, little above or little below. Now I think the story to this game is the qb for Minney. Gophers will struggle to run. Thing is Weber is a beast but no Decker. I actually compare the Minney pass attack, and really offensive attack, as similar to Iowa State when I watched the ISU-Iowa game. Use the tight end, a lot of underneath sit down stuff in zones, just manage first downs. If Minney could put that 252 up ISU did by attacking the Iowa zone they would be happy. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing Weber will even get over 200. Just a worst case scenario trying to envision somehow how Minney is going to move the ball. Overall, Iowa is the better team. The Minney line last week vs. Wisky was way off, that is not a solid Wisky team, so I don’t even think covering that game by an easy margin means much. Minney decent. Iowa, well, solid, but they seem to act decent and lose to a lot of teams they shouldn’t. They are a lot like Minney offensively in the passing attack, very similar, they just manage, and maybe that holds them back from putting teams away. So, I’m not sure this is a sure thing in Iowa here, because that club is kind of like Auburn a year ago playing good vs. top comp and not pulling away from bad comp. With that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa dominated Minney like NW and Mich. Iowa vs. MSU, NW, Turnovers did them in to lose. I would put Minney as little weaker version of MSU. Esp NW 1-5 TO’s. Illinois had 272 pass yards on Iowa including a 50 yards pass and some weird momentum changes in that game. Don’t see that big pass big play threat Illinois had here with Minney. 1-score line here with a better team I think Iowa wins and cover majority of time, if it’s close it’ll be right around the line and we’ll have a chance.
INDIANA
I think injuries have hurt IU this year, several on the Oline, along with Lewis out. Should be better this week. “At the quarterback position, we’re as healthy as we’ve been in four or five weeks,” Lynch said. Comparing these teams, what kills IU is dominant run teams that physically dominant you. Purdue doesn’t do that. Northwestern didn’t do that. Kind of how I compare this game. Also, NW spread is not a downfield passing attack, and neither is Purdue’s. Purdue has quite frankly struggled to move the ball this season. So even though IU sucks in run defense and pass defense I like this matchup. Also, CMU doesn’t really over power you either. IU won the run battle 272-37 vs. CMU and played them as tough as Purdue did.
We have a 3-8 team against another 3-8 team. Both teams are very similar. What has Purdue done to show they can win by double digits? Purdue has home field an Tiller farewell, but two pretty even teams in my eyes. Also this is the Ole Oaken Bucket game, and I love those rivalry games with double digits.
TEXAS TECH
Since the Texas game I’m not sure what Oklahoma has done besides blow out a bunch of patsies. I need to give them credit against TCU and Cincy. That was impressive but Texas got them one-sided. But the Texas game is the bench mark for me. I think they were thoroughly a worse team, they could not stop Texas to save their lives. It started with lack of pressure and Reynolds being out. TT is going to keep OU pressure off, just like they did vs. Texas. OU and Texas are both tied 3<SUP>rd</SUP> in sacks nationally and it is a big, big part of their defense. We saw vs. Oklahoma how Texas fares vs. the pass without pressure. TT is 2<SUP>nd</SUP> in sacks allowed. The TT defense looks definitely different this year. 20<SUP>th</SUP> against run, outside of EWU, NEB pass defense allowed they have been really solid in that area. Holding Texas to 219 passing is a good deal. TT has proven more than Oklahoma to date. Kind of think Oklahoma name recognition is in play in lines maker’s eyes, as is TT appearing in the national championship? No way, it’s TT. They are going to fold.
VANDERBILT
On paper Tennessee has a big NFL Oline. Remember last year they didn’t give up a sack all season? In SEC blitz natzi league? All these guys returned and they are 73 in sacks allowed and 105 in rush offense. Vandy small Dline but Tenny Oline at this point isn’t going to overpower them. Tenny 105 rush offense, 24 rush defense. Vandy 57 rush offense, 54 rush defense. Both pass offenses suck and pass defenses are awesome, so the rush will decide this game. If Nickson is back he can really run therefore edge Vandy run, therefore game. ----And Commodores are a sneaky team in that they know how to win games. Tenny knows how to blow games. Commy's at home at night with a bowl berth on the line vs. the fighting donuts.
STANFORD
Cal has faded to end the season how many years now? In the rushing department Cal has been beating up on poor rushing defenses. But against similar teams they have been losing the battle. Oregon State 85-194, Maryland 38-141, and Arizona 110-179. Stanford struggles winning the rushing battle against great rush teams, but win against similar teams. 161-83 vs. ND, 210-86 vs. Oregon State, 286-77 vs. Arizona. I consider Cal and Stanford pretty similar in the rush department.
Cal rushing offense 63, defense 39. Pass offense 60, pass defense 34, efficiency 4
Stanford rushing O 20, defense 64. Pass offense 108, pass defense 92, efficiency 84.
I just don’t see Cal outside of two games, that they have put up great passing yards. See 5 games under 200. Stanford certainly will be limited but Cal IMO isn’t going to get a lot either. Stanford is 7<SUP>th</SUP> nationally in sack as well and Cal is 80<SUP>th</SUP> in sacks allowed. Just think Stanford will win the rushing battle, keep the passing battle close, and this is a rivalry, and they always play Cal close. The call this one "the big game".
TALK ME OFFS
WASHINGTON
Yes, I know. Same philosophy as UCLA over UW last week. If you look at the scores of games UW is better than WSU even though the stats are 117 for both. Washingon is dumb, Washington State is dumber, I think dumb is good enough to pull a default win out of it's ass.
DUKE
VT only beat WKU by 14. Furman is the only game on the year VT has covered this Duke spread of 17.
BYU
This WILL be a close game Utah does not blow nobody out and BYU getting oversold. Give me above 7 this has potential to move.
RUTGERS
Army implemented option this year and are getting better at it every game. Retards never should of went away from it as it is mandatory for all academies to run the option in my book. Rutgers has defended Navy’s option the past couple years. With Army we are talking about a very one dimensional attack here folks. Rutgers has a good enough defense to stop this run. If they do that bodes well because I think Rutgers can move the all at will. Similar matchup to Syracuse for Rutgers. Last three weeks Rutgers has covered this spread against better comp but are in a sandwich between USF and Louisville
TCU
Who can compare to what TCU will do on this AF run? Utah. Held AF to 53 yards. Utah also ran for 197 and dominated the game but only won by 7. TCU is not like Utah in that regard they would of blown AF out that day. What we know is AF gives up some run yards. TCU is thus going to stop the run and run the ball. 150+ run advantage TCU. We also know TCU has a big pass edge here. TCU off a bye two weeks removed from Utah loss. Get this game at home to end the season. Have to think Patterson talked to them during the two weeks they have put Utah behind them and will come out and cap off this great season in TCU fashion.
On to the week of the dog.
PLAYS
GEORGIA TECH
Waiting to see some stuff on Nesbitt tommorow before I lock it, hopefully Bob don't jump on. I saw Florida State kill this Miami team for 281 yards on the ground with misdirection. Ponder ran it a lot that game, faking it to Smith, handing it to Smith, Miami had no answer. FSU had reverses, flow that active Cane D one way, go the other way. Wake Forest also is a misdirection offense, and they ran for 195 yards on Miami. Here’s what Shannon said in preparation, “If guys are doing their job and playing assignment football, you'll be successful.... You have to have everybody chasing the football. If you don't, you're going to have a tough time." I agree with the assignment part, but not the chasing part. Miami FL is the classic over pursuing aggressive defense. He also said they have to play high because that’s how you turn GT over by tackling high. I think situationally GT with the bye, get this game at home in primetime.
OLE MISS
Just think this is a good matchup as far as Ole Miss’s style running the ball compared to LSU’s defense of the run. Defensively Ole Miss has woke up on defending the run and they held a similar power run Alabama to 104 rushing. The Mississippi run defense is 13<SUP>th</SUP> nationally. Passing wise I think Ole Miss, you can put yards on them. LSU even though the qb play is iffy, they gamble and they can move it. In fact I think that’s why Lee is playing, he can do some good things. But it’s just not worth the mistakes. He has been good for at least 1 pick a game and the pick 6’s are what are just absolutely killers. Nutt in a rivalry, especially vs. LSU, he knows how to run on them, Nutt is loosey goosey. Look for a kickoff return edge here too but I’m banking on a big run edge.
NC STATE
Getting DD here in a rivalry. Made this line -4 UNC myself. NSTU has really come on since getting healthy and that qb Russell Wilson keeps them in every game. Any game I have that kid at the helm I like my chances at staying within 10. T.J. Yates is coming back for UNC this week, but Sexton has been playing so well, qb competition to play this week according the Butch, maybe not the best thing. Also, NSTU has been gaining confidence every week now, and are starting to buy into O’Brien and play fundamental football. Should note last year to end the season NSTU had a chance at a bowl berth and was embarrassed in a 0-30+ blowout, and they were starting to come on strong somewhat towards the end prior. Just think this is a different NSTU team personally and I don’t see anything that says UNC has big edges anywhere this conference is too close.
MICHIGAN STATE
MSU has only lost two games, and been blown out in one. Ohio State was a bad matchup, pure and simple, dating back to last year. It was a 52-216 run difference. Wisky out rushed MSU 281-25. 200 yard rush difference in those two games and that is what MSU is built upon. Good news is they somehow won the Wisky game. IMO I just think PSU cannot hold MSU down like that. PSU line scheme I think is different. No one is going to run on PSU easily though, it will be a chore for MSU but they should operate a bit. Defensively I’m kind of worried I think PSU can run on MSU for 200 yards possibility. What I like is that Clark has struggled lately, really struggled. MSU off bye, too good of team to lay this much in the rivalry.
TENNY/VANDY UNDER
Tenny 105 pass offense, 24 pass defense. Vandy 102 pass offense, 23 pass defense. Tenny 105 rush offense, 24 rush defense. Vandy 57 rush offense, 54 rush defense. Is there ever any better numbers for an under???
STRONG LEANS
IOWA
----The Minney run defense surprisingly only gave up 116 last week to Wisky after two 200 yard games allowed against much worse run teams. OSU, NW, MICH run attacks vs. WISKY, ILLI??? Maybe those real strung out zone’s hurt them. What we can accurately project is Minney rush yards. They are going to struggle to get 100 yards as when you break it down they have only had over 100 yards rushing in conference on Illinois and Purdue. And they barely did those games. 5 out of 7 games Minney could not get over 100 yards in Big Ten play, and honestly IU, NW, Mich, Wisky aren’t great run defenses. Iowa is going to get 130 + I would say. Passing wise, Iowa is always around 200, little above or little below. Now I think the story to this game is the qb for Minney. Gophers will struggle to run. Thing is Weber is a beast but no Decker. I actually compare the Minney pass attack, and really offensive attack, as similar to Iowa State when I watched the ISU-Iowa game. Use the tight end, a lot of underneath sit down stuff in zones, just manage first downs. If Minney could put that 252 up ISU did by attacking the Iowa zone they would be happy. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing Weber will even get over 200. Just a worst case scenario trying to envision somehow how Minney is going to move the ball. Overall, Iowa is the better team. The Minney line last week vs. Wisky was way off, that is not a solid Wisky team, so I don’t even think covering that game by an easy margin means much. Minney decent. Iowa, well, solid, but they seem to act decent and lose to a lot of teams they shouldn’t. They are a lot like Minney offensively in the passing attack, very similar, they just manage, and maybe that holds them back from putting teams away. So, I’m not sure this is a sure thing in Iowa here, because that club is kind of like Auburn a year ago playing good vs. top comp and not pulling away from bad comp. With that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa dominated Minney like NW and Mich. Iowa vs. MSU, NW, Turnovers did them in to lose. I would put Minney as little weaker version of MSU. Esp NW 1-5 TO’s. Illinois had 272 pass yards on Iowa including a 50 yards pass and some weird momentum changes in that game. Don’t see that big pass big play threat Illinois had here with Minney. 1-score line here with a better team I think Iowa wins and cover majority of time, if it’s close it’ll be right around the line and we’ll have a chance.
INDIANA
I think injuries have hurt IU this year, several on the Oline, along with Lewis out. Should be better this week. “At the quarterback position, we’re as healthy as we’ve been in four or five weeks,” Lynch said. Comparing these teams, what kills IU is dominant run teams that physically dominant you. Purdue doesn’t do that. Northwestern didn’t do that. Kind of how I compare this game. Also, NW spread is not a downfield passing attack, and neither is Purdue’s. Purdue has quite frankly struggled to move the ball this season. So even though IU sucks in run defense and pass defense I like this matchup. Also, CMU doesn’t really over power you either. IU won the run battle 272-37 vs. CMU and played them as tough as Purdue did.
We have a 3-8 team against another 3-8 team. Both teams are very similar. What has Purdue done to show they can win by double digits? Purdue has home field an Tiller farewell, but two pretty even teams in my eyes. Also this is the Ole Oaken Bucket game, and I love those rivalry games with double digits.
TEXAS TECH
Since the Texas game I’m not sure what Oklahoma has done besides blow out a bunch of patsies. I need to give them credit against TCU and Cincy. That was impressive but Texas got them one-sided. But the Texas game is the bench mark for me. I think they were thoroughly a worse team, they could not stop Texas to save their lives. It started with lack of pressure and Reynolds being out. TT is going to keep OU pressure off, just like they did vs. Texas. OU and Texas are both tied 3<SUP>rd</SUP> in sacks nationally and it is a big, big part of their defense. We saw vs. Oklahoma how Texas fares vs. the pass without pressure. TT is 2<SUP>nd</SUP> in sacks allowed. The TT defense looks definitely different this year. 20<SUP>th</SUP> against run, outside of EWU, NEB pass defense allowed they have been really solid in that area. Holding Texas to 219 passing is a good deal. TT has proven more than Oklahoma to date. Kind of think Oklahoma name recognition is in play in lines maker’s eyes, as is TT appearing in the national championship? No way, it’s TT. They are going to fold.
VANDERBILT
On paper Tennessee has a big NFL Oline. Remember last year they didn’t give up a sack all season? In SEC blitz natzi league? All these guys returned and they are 73 in sacks allowed and 105 in rush offense. Vandy small Dline but Tenny Oline at this point isn’t going to overpower them. Tenny 105 rush offense, 24 rush defense. Vandy 57 rush offense, 54 rush defense. Both pass offenses suck and pass defenses are awesome, so the rush will decide this game. If Nickson is back he can really run therefore edge Vandy run, therefore game. ----And Commodores are a sneaky team in that they know how to win games. Tenny knows how to blow games. Commy's at home at night with a bowl berth on the line vs. the fighting donuts.
STANFORD
Cal has faded to end the season how many years now? In the rushing department Cal has been beating up on poor rushing defenses. But against similar teams they have been losing the battle. Oregon State 85-194, Maryland 38-141, and Arizona 110-179. Stanford struggles winning the rushing battle against great rush teams, but win against similar teams. 161-83 vs. ND, 210-86 vs. Oregon State, 286-77 vs. Arizona. I consider Cal and Stanford pretty similar in the rush department.
Cal rushing offense 63, defense 39. Pass offense 60, pass defense 34, efficiency 4
Stanford rushing O 20, defense 64. Pass offense 108, pass defense 92, efficiency 84.
I just don’t see Cal outside of two games, that they have put up great passing yards. See 5 games under 200. Stanford certainly will be limited but Cal IMO isn’t going to get a lot either. Stanford is 7<SUP>th</SUP> nationally in sack as well and Cal is 80<SUP>th</SUP> in sacks allowed. Just think Stanford will win the rushing battle, keep the passing battle close, and this is a rivalry, and they always play Cal close. The call this one "the big game".
TALK ME OFFS
WASHINGTON
Yes, I know. Same philosophy as UCLA over UW last week. If you look at the scores of games UW is better than WSU even though the stats are 117 for both. Washingon is dumb, Washington State is dumber, I think dumb is good enough to pull a default win out of it's ass.
DUKE
VT only beat WKU by 14. Furman is the only game on the year VT has covered this Duke spread of 17.
BYU
This WILL be a close game Utah does not blow nobody out and BYU getting oversold. Give me above 7 this has potential to move.
RUTGERS
Army implemented option this year and are getting better at it every game. Retards never should of went away from it as it is mandatory for all academies to run the option in my book. Rutgers has defended Navy’s option the past couple years. With Army we are talking about a very one dimensional attack here folks. Rutgers has a good enough defense to stop this run. If they do that bodes well because I think Rutgers can move the all at will. Similar matchup to Syracuse for Rutgers. Last three weeks Rutgers has covered this spread against better comp but are in a sandwich between USF and Louisville
TCU
Who can compare to what TCU will do on this AF run? Utah. Held AF to 53 yards. Utah also ran for 197 and dominated the game but only won by 7. TCU is not like Utah in that regard they would of blown AF out that day. What we know is AF gives up some run yards. TCU is thus going to stop the run and run the ball. 150+ run advantage TCU. We also know TCU has a big pass edge here. TCU off a bye two weeks removed from Utah loss. Get this game at home to end the season. Have to think Patterson talked to them during the two weeks they have put Utah behind them and will come out and cap off this great season in TCU fashion.
