O
O-State
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4-3 on Plays LW, 2-2 Strong Opinions, 0-4 TMO's, and 0-2 Totals. Pegged Ohio State, Wisconsin, Alabama, Iowa and then missed on Minnesota, Okie State, and the Iowa/PSU U late addition that I think hurt everybody.
Had to dig deep this week to find some games. Really don't know how this week will turn out for me, I'm liking alot of the public darlings in which the lines seem to be begging for their money. The results will be interesting.
PLAYS
MINNESOTA
I was on Minnesota in their losses to NW and Michigan and also on Wisky LW who had a 441-133 rush edge last week that I am very proud of. I also learned Minney isn’t as good as they were thought to be prior to NW and Michigan, and that the run defense is a concern for Minney. They gave up 220 yards to Northwestern on the ground and 232 yards on the ground to Michigan. Also gave up 279 rush yards to Ohio State and Minney really hasn’t beaten anyone to date outside of Illinois who emotionally isn’t there all the time. Erick Decker is out in this one and Minney is limited offensively with no big play. So why the hell am I on Minney? “Nothing is as bad as it seems and nothing is as good as it seems”- Earle Bruce. Really applies to betting. 3 weeks ago Minney is favored over Wisky, and now 2 TD dogs? Wow. I don’t believe Minney is total garbage and more like the team they were last year as some now are believing. Minney is decent, nothing more nothing less. The run differential here isn’t disturbing me that much. Michigan State lost the run battle 281-25 and won the game. Wisconsin has trouble blowing people out if they don’t play someone with different level of athletes. Wisconsin has shown some signs of trouble on defense as well and overall I rate them to be a decent team like Minney. Finally, this is the Paul Bunyan Axe game. Minney stayed within 7 points last year in Minnesota although Wisconsin has won the last 4 and the two in Wisconsin were not close. But I see this being a tough tight intense battle of two pretty even teams for the Axe. There are some definite concerns here as mentioned but I am getting 14 points, a line I think is very generous, and the angle I am relying on is the let’s not overreact angle….the same one that Michigan backers probably won with last week and NW won with before that because both those teams were coming off really horrible losses.
TEXAS
Ad Nauseum talked about in detail between me and SportsNut in VK's thread. 75% of public on Texas here though, and Nut does have me thinking this game could teeter 1 or 2 possessions the whole game from a cover for Kansas but I think Texas controls this game and KU will need some breaks to cover.
NOTRE DAME
Navy I like betting against one dimensional teams without a defense. I like Navy though those kids play hard and do what they do really well, they are not a fraud as some ppl call them but they are really overrated. Everything has to go right for Navy against these bigger more talented teams and with an option attack one fumble or one turnover on downs or one 1<SUP>st</SUP> down where you gain 0 yards really puts you behind the eight ball. A lot of 4<SUP>th</SUP> down and 3 type conversions are necessary. On the average Navy is not going to be perfect and they have to be. But outside of the Wake Forest win Navy has done nothing in these bigger games. Well they beat Rutgers when Rutgers had no chemistry and also had 2 blocked punts for TD’s to barely beat Air Force and a big comeback against Temple. They lost to Duke and Ball State, the Ball State game though that was a 4 quarter game Navy ran well. So some of these games might be misleading, Wake, and maybe these big comebacks, but specifically Wake I know Skinner threw 4 picks and he never throws any, Ever. In fact those were the only picks Skinner has thrown all season!!! I just think that game was somewhat of a fluke. I’m just saying we are getting line value because of all this, and these wins I don’t take great value in as being Navy a really good team. Now what I really look at is the team I compare most to ND, Pittsburgh. I think that game means something. ND is in desperate times and they are pretty unbeatable when the offense is clicking and it should be Saturday.
NEBRASKA
I think line is begging for Nebraska money. 66% of public on them maybe it’s a trap but Nebraska on logic is the play all the way. November on the road the lines makers really using that right now. Rushing wise, Nebraska should win the battle by over 100 yards. Passing wise, Nebraska is 53<SUP>rd</SUP> rushing offense, 13<SUP>th</SUP> passing offense, 63 rushing defense, 92 pass defense. KSU is 109 rushing defense, 72 rush offense, 17 pass offense and 93 pass defense. Pass offenses would seem similar but Nebraska consistently is really high, while KSU take away 486 outing vs. Oklahoma and they have low 200’s and high 100’s in passing department. I mean is Kansas State +10 at Nebraska??? IMO NO, not at all. Baylor was +10 at Nebraska and Baylor is a lot better than K-State. KSU is 14 or 17 point dogs at Nebraska in my book. The November factor is making home field go up tremendously in eyes of linemakers, I just think that it should only be emphasized more if it’s a top team coming too town and the home field is actually decent, as in not one of the worst teams in 1A ala Kansas State.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Will Okie want to rebound after their loss by spanking Colorado, kind of like Mizzou did after losing?? I have seen Okie let up an be flat once this year although they have been pretty good all season. That game was to TAMU the yards were identical, and that was the biggest mismatch on paper entire year for Okie especially running, maybe look ahead week before Missouri game. Okie has Oklahoma on deck next but a bye week before Sooners, any mitigation there I don’t know. What I do know is on paper Okie State has a big run edge and the Okie Lite weakness pass defense if not Colorado’s strength. Colorado has pourus offense and chance of back door is not great. I like the ingredient of bad offense for the team getting points in large spreads. This line is 17, I think that is very short. Very short. Colorado has played decently the last two vs. TAMU and ISU but this is a different comp. This is why 76% of public are on Okie Lite and yet the line has not budged off 17. That Has me a little concerned. Is this a bad sign? Seriously. I really haven’t followed that stuff enough to know if when a large % of public is on a side and yet the line doesn’t move, if that spells book money.
DUKE
Rush offense both are pretty bad. Clemson has only rushed over 100 yards vs. NCSTU and Maryland, I see 5 games they haven’t gone over 100 yards. Duke’s weakness is rush O as well, 49 yards LW. Both rush defenses are pretty good except Clemson’s is overrated. They have giving up over 100 just about every game. The Duke rush defense is overrated as well they have giving up quite a bit so I really rate the rush game about equal. Passing wise I think both pass offenses look pretty solid but Duke has had more high outputs. But then the Clemson pass defense is outstanding, they have not given up over 200 pass yards yet this year. I think a lot of things point to a low scoring game so maybe a look at the under even though Duke games have been hard to get a beat on a lot of factors look good for an under. Overall, two pretty similar teams and I'm getting 10 points.
ILLINOIS
Boy, I think Ohio State will win but I think it will be a battle. A real battle. Illini coming off losses you know how I feel about them emotionally. Pryor Ohio State is really 1-dimensional right now, they really are. But Illinois offense hasn't impressed me, think they've gone from the run and Ohio State just matches up with that offense This year. If I had 14 I would definately be on Illinois jock but 10 that's a good number too, can I pull the trigger.
Ohio State/Illinois U 47
Notre Dame/Navy O 52
FLORIDA STATE
I’m gonna wait and see if this line comes down but some discussion on this board got me thinking about this game. The prior meetings between indicate a great great matchup for Florida State. LY in Massachusetts FSU shocked Matt Ryan and #2 BC handing them their first loss. FSU matches up really well with their pass offense in particular. In 06 they put 326 yards up. Last year they put 371 up and I know in 05 at BC FSU played BC early after an abysmal qb effort and rotation with Lee and Weatherford against Miami netting 7 points, and they went 4/5 wide and moved the football. Ryan passed for 415 LY on FSU and FSU was +4 in TO’s. Crane is much more pick susceptible and FSU will bring the heat and for Crane that is not good news. BC lost last time on the road @ night at home they are a different team. Rushing I see a rush offense advantage FSU, I see a rush defense edge BC. In this game I give FSU a small run edge, they match up better with BC’s run attack than vice versa, the WVU Oline zone blocking doesn’t have to move Raji and company. The BC pass O hasn’t done crap actually outside of 428 on NSTU. They had 116 vs. Clemson and 79 vs. ND. FSU is just decent passing but I think pass defense is edge FSU big, as BC still a little green their and FSU is stout, veteran and will be coming with pressure on Crane.
MARYLAND
Maryland coming off a loss at night back at home and are 3 point underdogs. We’ve seen this script before and though the scoreboard wasn’t as lopsided as Virginia game it was physical domination, a 273 - (-12) rush edge for VT. Clearly rush defense is Maryland’s weakness, UNC rates to get over 100 easily I predict. I think Maryland can get some run yards but stats show slight edge UNC. Passing wise I think it’s pretty even I really do. If I bet this game it would be PURELY situational. At home, and Maryland coming off a loss. The thing is, with Maryland, this team needs DRASTIC situations in order for the good enthusiastic Maryland who is pissed off and has something to prove to show up. I’ve figured it out watching the VT game last week. I thought Maryland would go into Blacksburg with some intention of rectifying their last road night performance and pumped up. I was wrong Erin Andrews talked about the unemotional bench all night. Coach Friedgen is a turtle. Literally he is like a tortoise who just mopes around. His team takes on that personality. Now Fridge didn’t act like a turtle after they nearly got beaten by Delaware and got beaten by MTSU, and Cal was coming into town. He was pissed off. That was drastic. The Virginia, what, 30 something loss, 0 points on the board for Maryland, that was embarrassing, drastic. The VT game I don’t know if that was drastic enough for us to see pissed off Fridge and good Maryland lol. Fridge looks like a tortoise as well as act like one. Coaches really do symbolize their teams nickname kind of like humans look like their dogs, and the players certainly take on the personality of their head coach.
STRONG OPINIONS
BAYLOR
What is intriguing about this game is the rush advantage Baylor will have. 100 yard advantage minimum. The rushing defense for TAMU is 112 and the rushing offense is 108. Baylor is 30<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing offense. What concerns me is passing edge for TAMU. Baylor is 102 passing defense and 97 in pass efficiency defense while TAMU is 26<SUP>th</SUP> in passing offense. Both have played prolific offenses but against average teams, that rush discrepancy is still there for TAMU while Baylor when playing Uconn, Wake, Iowa State, there pass defense has been decent. Also if you take away 419 passing on KSU and 381 on ISU, the TAMU stats aren’t nearly as impressive throwing and Baylor’s passing game is closer to TAMU’ s then TAMU’s run game is to Baylor’s. Furthermore Baylor almost beat Missouri who can really pass it around and this game is @ Baylor which is important because I just think TAMU plays harder and better at home. I'd get this at 7.
OREGON
Rushing defense for Arizona long been considered a weakness this season. 221 to New Mexico, 286 to Stanford, 115 to UCLA, 151 to USC but that 151 not that bad really. Overall they haven’t played many great rush offenses but the ones they have played have put numbers up. The Oregon rush offense is 6<SUP>th</SUP> nationally and rush defense 28<SUP>th</SUP>. They should win the rush battle by over 100 yards. The edge for Arizona comes in the form of passing defense, which is a large edge. Arizona is 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, yes 3<SUP>rd</SUP> in pass defense and efficiency defense. Mike Stoops d-back experience obvious in talent evaluation and schematics. Oregon is 97<SUP>th</SUP> in pass defense and 51 pass efficiency. Now, that great pass defense edge for Zona is not going to come into play much outside of loading the box because Oregon runs it and can’t pass it so they probably won’t attempt to. The one advantage Zona has is pass offense, they are 42 nationally. They don’t seem to have the ability to put up 300 yard pass outings though because they haven’t in-conference. Zona hovers around in the low 200’s in Pac-10 play. The one thing is UCLA runs a similar short passing game and they put 288 up. But assuming Zona wins the pass battle cause they probably will, Oregon has to win with the run. They games where there was a clear lopsided difference in run and pass for each team Oregon lost to Boise thanks to TO’s but they beat UCLA. Oregon can win this game as I think their rush edge might be more than what Zona can put up. Arizona lost to Stanford where Stanford won the rush battle by 200+ but lost the pass battle 100+. I’d compare this game for Zona to Stanford except Oregon has a much better rush offense, a better pass offense, and identical pass defense looking at the numbers. I might compare this game to @ Purdue if I’m Oregon. The ducks have gotten into some trouble with TO’s this year while Zona has been good in that aspect, what that angle, if Oregon stays even, the way they play at home I lean that way.
RUTGERS
This line has moved in USF direction and public on USF. Scratching my head. Different Rutgers team now and USF has looked bad. The biggest thing IMO is Rutgers seriously thinks they can win out and make a bowl game appearance, so if USF wins they will no doubt be getting Rutgers best shot because this is more than just a win/loss, this is elimination to them and I think that bodes well for it to be a tight game if Rutgers loses. It will be interesting to see if USF is motivated or quit. Rushing wise, I do think USF can have a slight edge, because their run offense is better. Rush defenses pretty similar. Passing offense, for Rutgers, they have done a 180 starting with the Uconn game. If that holds true that they have chanced I think the passing game lines up pretty equal offensively and defensively. 10 points would be really nice here but getting 8 isn’t bad either.
TMO
TULSA
This game deserves a look because Tulsa has been really consistent all season long. Houston has not been consistent whatsoever, their offense sometimes takes a long time to get up to speed and can look like total garbage. That cannot happen here. Last year was 56-7 final in favor of Tulsa and I even think Tulsa this year is on a completely different level than last year offensively. Houston should be amped after last year and at home, Tulsa is coming off a bye and a loss to Arkansas which bodes well for them here. This is a one loss team playing a 4 loss team and the one loss team is miles better consistency wise. Both top 5 offenses nationally and pourus defenses, but what is sticking out is Houston is 91 in sacks allowed while Tulsa is 2<SUP>nd</SUP> nationally in sacks. That is big. The other thing I am seeing is Tulsa’s rush offense is 1<SUP>st</SUP> while Houston’s rush offense is 56. That is really big. Also while both offenses are top 5 nationally, Tulsa is #1 and if I think the gap is pretty wide too #2. Houston is #4, so the gap is even wider, Tulsa has the better offense clearly. The one edge to Houston is pass defense, Tulsa is in the 100’s and Houston is in the 70s.
ALABAMA
A bye week before the Auburn game. Still maybe some hung-overness from LSU game. But teams like Alabama are better at covering large spreads than you might think. If Bama scores 21 or more points on offense, which is the spread, I think they have a legit chance of covering. Kentucky game didn't turn out this way which is what gives me some concern and after Clemson the Tulane game.
NORTHWESTERN
I think NW can win this game. The run offense is pretty even both should be over 130. I’d give a pass offense edge and pass defense edge to Cats. Looks like Threet will get some snaps If Sheridan plays entire this becomes a strong opinion.
TOTALS
Ohio State/Illinois U 47
Notre Dame/Navy O 52
Had to dig deep this week to find some games. Really don't know how this week will turn out for me, I'm liking alot of the public darlings in which the lines seem to be begging for their money. The results will be interesting.
PLAYS
MINNESOTA
I was on Minnesota in their losses to NW and Michigan and also on Wisky LW who had a 441-133 rush edge last week that I am very proud of. I also learned Minney isn’t as good as they were thought to be prior to NW and Michigan, and that the run defense is a concern for Minney. They gave up 220 yards to Northwestern on the ground and 232 yards on the ground to Michigan. Also gave up 279 rush yards to Ohio State and Minney really hasn’t beaten anyone to date outside of Illinois who emotionally isn’t there all the time. Erick Decker is out in this one and Minney is limited offensively with no big play. So why the hell am I on Minney? “Nothing is as bad as it seems and nothing is as good as it seems”- Earle Bruce. Really applies to betting. 3 weeks ago Minney is favored over Wisky, and now 2 TD dogs? Wow. I don’t believe Minney is total garbage and more like the team they were last year as some now are believing. Minney is decent, nothing more nothing less. The run differential here isn’t disturbing me that much. Michigan State lost the run battle 281-25 and won the game. Wisconsin has trouble blowing people out if they don’t play someone with different level of athletes. Wisconsin has shown some signs of trouble on defense as well and overall I rate them to be a decent team like Minney. Finally, this is the Paul Bunyan Axe game. Minney stayed within 7 points last year in Minnesota although Wisconsin has won the last 4 and the two in Wisconsin were not close. But I see this being a tough tight intense battle of two pretty even teams for the Axe. There are some definite concerns here as mentioned but I am getting 14 points, a line I think is very generous, and the angle I am relying on is the let’s not overreact angle….the same one that Michigan backers probably won with last week and NW won with before that because both those teams were coming off really horrible losses.
TEXAS
Ad Nauseum talked about in detail between me and SportsNut in VK's thread. 75% of public on Texas here though, and Nut does have me thinking this game could teeter 1 or 2 possessions the whole game from a cover for Kansas but I think Texas controls this game and KU will need some breaks to cover.
NOTRE DAME
Navy I like betting against one dimensional teams without a defense. I like Navy though those kids play hard and do what they do really well, they are not a fraud as some ppl call them but they are really overrated. Everything has to go right for Navy against these bigger more talented teams and with an option attack one fumble or one turnover on downs or one 1<SUP>st</SUP> down where you gain 0 yards really puts you behind the eight ball. A lot of 4<SUP>th</SUP> down and 3 type conversions are necessary. On the average Navy is not going to be perfect and they have to be. But outside of the Wake Forest win Navy has done nothing in these bigger games. Well they beat Rutgers when Rutgers had no chemistry and also had 2 blocked punts for TD’s to barely beat Air Force and a big comeback against Temple. They lost to Duke and Ball State, the Ball State game though that was a 4 quarter game Navy ran well. So some of these games might be misleading, Wake, and maybe these big comebacks, but specifically Wake I know Skinner threw 4 picks and he never throws any, Ever. In fact those were the only picks Skinner has thrown all season!!! I just think that game was somewhat of a fluke. I’m just saying we are getting line value because of all this, and these wins I don’t take great value in as being Navy a really good team. Now what I really look at is the team I compare most to ND, Pittsburgh. I think that game means something. ND is in desperate times and they are pretty unbeatable when the offense is clicking and it should be Saturday.
NEBRASKA
I think line is begging for Nebraska money. 66% of public on them maybe it’s a trap but Nebraska on logic is the play all the way. November on the road the lines makers really using that right now. Rushing wise, Nebraska should win the battle by over 100 yards. Passing wise, Nebraska is 53<SUP>rd</SUP> rushing offense, 13<SUP>th</SUP> passing offense, 63 rushing defense, 92 pass defense. KSU is 109 rushing defense, 72 rush offense, 17 pass offense and 93 pass defense. Pass offenses would seem similar but Nebraska consistently is really high, while KSU take away 486 outing vs. Oklahoma and they have low 200’s and high 100’s in passing department. I mean is Kansas State +10 at Nebraska??? IMO NO, not at all. Baylor was +10 at Nebraska and Baylor is a lot better than K-State. KSU is 14 or 17 point dogs at Nebraska in my book. The November factor is making home field go up tremendously in eyes of linemakers, I just think that it should only be emphasized more if it’s a top team coming too town and the home field is actually decent, as in not one of the worst teams in 1A ala Kansas State.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Will Okie want to rebound after their loss by spanking Colorado, kind of like Mizzou did after losing?? I have seen Okie let up an be flat once this year although they have been pretty good all season. That game was to TAMU the yards were identical, and that was the biggest mismatch on paper entire year for Okie especially running, maybe look ahead week before Missouri game. Okie has Oklahoma on deck next but a bye week before Sooners, any mitigation there I don’t know. What I do know is on paper Okie State has a big run edge and the Okie Lite weakness pass defense if not Colorado’s strength. Colorado has pourus offense and chance of back door is not great. I like the ingredient of bad offense for the team getting points in large spreads. This line is 17, I think that is very short. Very short. Colorado has played decently the last two vs. TAMU and ISU but this is a different comp. This is why 76% of public are on Okie Lite and yet the line has not budged off 17. That Has me a little concerned. Is this a bad sign? Seriously. I really haven’t followed that stuff enough to know if when a large % of public is on a side and yet the line doesn’t move, if that spells book money.
DUKE
Rush offense both are pretty bad. Clemson has only rushed over 100 yards vs. NCSTU and Maryland, I see 5 games they haven’t gone over 100 yards. Duke’s weakness is rush O as well, 49 yards LW. Both rush defenses are pretty good except Clemson’s is overrated. They have giving up over 100 just about every game. The Duke rush defense is overrated as well they have giving up quite a bit so I really rate the rush game about equal. Passing wise I think both pass offenses look pretty solid but Duke has had more high outputs. But then the Clemson pass defense is outstanding, they have not given up over 200 pass yards yet this year. I think a lot of things point to a low scoring game so maybe a look at the under even though Duke games have been hard to get a beat on a lot of factors look good for an under. Overall, two pretty similar teams and I'm getting 10 points.
ILLINOIS
Boy, I think Ohio State will win but I think it will be a battle. A real battle. Illini coming off losses you know how I feel about them emotionally. Pryor Ohio State is really 1-dimensional right now, they really are. But Illinois offense hasn't impressed me, think they've gone from the run and Ohio State just matches up with that offense This year. If I had 14 I would definately be on Illinois jock but 10 that's a good number too, can I pull the trigger.
Ohio State/Illinois U 47
Notre Dame/Navy O 52
FLORIDA STATE
I’m gonna wait and see if this line comes down but some discussion on this board got me thinking about this game. The prior meetings between indicate a great great matchup for Florida State. LY in Massachusetts FSU shocked Matt Ryan and #2 BC handing them their first loss. FSU matches up really well with their pass offense in particular. In 06 they put 326 yards up. Last year they put 371 up and I know in 05 at BC FSU played BC early after an abysmal qb effort and rotation with Lee and Weatherford against Miami netting 7 points, and they went 4/5 wide and moved the football. Ryan passed for 415 LY on FSU and FSU was +4 in TO’s. Crane is much more pick susceptible and FSU will bring the heat and for Crane that is not good news. BC lost last time on the road @ night at home they are a different team. Rushing I see a rush offense advantage FSU, I see a rush defense edge BC. In this game I give FSU a small run edge, they match up better with BC’s run attack than vice versa, the WVU Oline zone blocking doesn’t have to move Raji and company. The BC pass O hasn’t done crap actually outside of 428 on NSTU. They had 116 vs. Clemson and 79 vs. ND. FSU is just decent passing but I think pass defense is edge FSU big, as BC still a little green their and FSU is stout, veteran and will be coming with pressure on Crane.
MARYLAND
Maryland coming off a loss at night back at home and are 3 point underdogs. We’ve seen this script before and though the scoreboard wasn’t as lopsided as Virginia game it was physical domination, a 273 - (-12) rush edge for VT. Clearly rush defense is Maryland’s weakness, UNC rates to get over 100 easily I predict. I think Maryland can get some run yards but stats show slight edge UNC. Passing wise I think it’s pretty even I really do. If I bet this game it would be PURELY situational. At home, and Maryland coming off a loss. The thing is, with Maryland, this team needs DRASTIC situations in order for the good enthusiastic Maryland who is pissed off and has something to prove to show up. I’ve figured it out watching the VT game last week. I thought Maryland would go into Blacksburg with some intention of rectifying their last road night performance and pumped up. I was wrong Erin Andrews talked about the unemotional bench all night. Coach Friedgen is a turtle. Literally he is like a tortoise who just mopes around. His team takes on that personality. Now Fridge didn’t act like a turtle after they nearly got beaten by Delaware and got beaten by MTSU, and Cal was coming into town. He was pissed off. That was drastic. The Virginia, what, 30 something loss, 0 points on the board for Maryland, that was embarrassing, drastic. The VT game I don’t know if that was drastic enough for us to see pissed off Fridge and good Maryland lol. Fridge looks like a tortoise as well as act like one. Coaches really do symbolize their teams nickname kind of like humans look like their dogs, and the players certainly take on the personality of their head coach.
STRONG OPINIONS
BAYLOR
What is intriguing about this game is the rush advantage Baylor will have. 100 yard advantage minimum. The rushing defense for TAMU is 112 and the rushing offense is 108. Baylor is 30<SUP>th</SUP> in rushing offense. What concerns me is passing edge for TAMU. Baylor is 102 passing defense and 97 in pass efficiency defense while TAMU is 26<SUP>th</SUP> in passing offense. Both have played prolific offenses but against average teams, that rush discrepancy is still there for TAMU while Baylor when playing Uconn, Wake, Iowa State, there pass defense has been decent. Also if you take away 419 passing on KSU and 381 on ISU, the TAMU stats aren’t nearly as impressive throwing and Baylor’s passing game is closer to TAMU’ s then TAMU’s run game is to Baylor’s. Furthermore Baylor almost beat Missouri who can really pass it around and this game is @ Baylor which is important because I just think TAMU plays harder and better at home. I'd get this at 7.
OREGON
Rushing defense for Arizona long been considered a weakness this season. 221 to New Mexico, 286 to Stanford, 115 to UCLA, 151 to USC but that 151 not that bad really. Overall they haven’t played many great rush offenses but the ones they have played have put numbers up. The Oregon rush offense is 6<SUP>th</SUP> nationally and rush defense 28<SUP>th</SUP>. They should win the rush battle by over 100 yards. The edge for Arizona comes in the form of passing defense, which is a large edge. Arizona is 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, yes 3<SUP>rd</SUP> in pass defense and efficiency defense. Mike Stoops d-back experience obvious in talent evaluation and schematics. Oregon is 97<SUP>th</SUP> in pass defense and 51 pass efficiency. Now, that great pass defense edge for Zona is not going to come into play much outside of loading the box because Oregon runs it and can’t pass it so they probably won’t attempt to. The one advantage Zona has is pass offense, they are 42 nationally. They don’t seem to have the ability to put up 300 yard pass outings though because they haven’t in-conference. Zona hovers around in the low 200’s in Pac-10 play. The one thing is UCLA runs a similar short passing game and they put 288 up. But assuming Zona wins the pass battle cause they probably will, Oregon has to win with the run. They games where there was a clear lopsided difference in run and pass for each team Oregon lost to Boise thanks to TO’s but they beat UCLA. Oregon can win this game as I think their rush edge might be more than what Zona can put up. Arizona lost to Stanford where Stanford won the rush battle by 200+ but lost the pass battle 100+. I’d compare this game for Zona to Stanford except Oregon has a much better rush offense, a better pass offense, and identical pass defense looking at the numbers. I might compare this game to @ Purdue if I’m Oregon. The ducks have gotten into some trouble with TO’s this year while Zona has been good in that aspect, what that angle, if Oregon stays even, the way they play at home I lean that way.
RUTGERS
This line has moved in USF direction and public on USF. Scratching my head. Different Rutgers team now and USF has looked bad. The biggest thing IMO is Rutgers seriously thinks they can win out and make a bowl game appearance, so if USF wins they will no doubt be getting Rutgers best shot because this is more than just a win/loss, this is elimination to them and I think that bodes well for it to be a tight game if Rutgers loses. It will be interesting to see if USF is motivated or quit. Rushing wise, I do think USF can have a slight edge, because their run offense is better. Rush defenses pretty similar. Passing offense, for Rutgers, they have done a 180 starting with the Uconn game. If that holds true that they have chanced I think the passing game lines up pretty equal offensively and defensively. 10 points would be really nice here but getting 8 isn’t bad either.
TMO
TULSA
This game deserves a look because Tulsa has been really consistent all season long. Houston has not been consistent whatsoever, their offense sometimes takes a long time to get up to speed and can look like total garbage. That cannot happen here. Last year was 56-7 final in favor of Tulsa and I even think Tulsa this year is on a completely different level than last year offensively. Houston should be amped after last year and at home, Tulsa is coming off a bye and a loss to Arkansas which bodes well for them here. This is a one loss team playing a 4 loss team and the one loss team is miles better consistency wise. Both top 5 offenses nationally and pourus defenses, but what is sticking out is Houston is 91 in sacks allowed while Tulsa is 2<SUP>nd</SUP> nationally in sacks. That is big. The other thing I am seeing is Tulsa’s rush offense is 1<SUP>st</SUP> while Houston’s rush offense is 56. That is really big. Also while both offenses are top 5 nationally, Tulsa is #1 and if I think the gap is pretty wide too #2. Houston is #4, so the gap is even wider, Tulsa has the better offense clearly. The one edge to Houston is pass defense, Tulsa is in the 100’s and Houston is in the 70s.
ALABAMA
A bye week before the Auburn game. Still maybe some hung-overness from LSU game. But teams like Alabama are better at covering large spreads than you might think. If Bama scores 21 or more points on offense, which is the spread, I think they have a legit chance of covering. Kentucky game didn't turn out this way which is what gives me some concern and after Clemson the Tulane game.
NORTHWESTERN
I think NW can win this game. The run offense is pretty even both should be over 130. I’d give a pass offense edge and pass defense edge to Cats. Looks like Threet will get some snaps If Sheridan plays entire this becomes a strong opinion.
TOTALS
Ohio State/Illinois U 47
Notre Dame/Navy O 52
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