NYG +13X vs NE!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

Mags

Mags

The Magsnificent One
I'll grab 13X in a Superbowl any day...

Locked it in already boys:)

:smiley_acbe:
 
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I was personally shocked when I saw the line, I was expecting 9X/10 at the very most. I threw $500 on it ASAP, then yes, it dropped to 13 shortly afterwards. When was the last time that NE covered these huge spreads...Pittsburgh? I personally hope to see NE win to complete their run but giving the "other hot team" 13X points just seems silly. Is it me or does their (NYG) current run remind you alot of Pittsburgh a few years back?
 
NYG ML If I can get +700 I will bet to win 10G'z

You'll never see that outside of in-game betting when the Giants are down. At best you'll get high 400s, maybe +500, but probably not.

When the Rams laid -14 to the Pats it got over +550, but never really that close to +600 after the open.

The ML will steadily go down on this game, likely ending in the high +200s and mid +300s before kickoff. Not because of the bets coming in on it, so much, but because they can lower it and lower it and people will still take it.
 
I was personally shocked when I saw the line, I was expecting 9X/10 at the very most.

I mentioned this in another thread, but I saw this line before the weekend in Vegas so that it was 13 didn't shock me, in fact, I saw it at better than this just yesterday.

Frankly, it may go up to 14.
 
Food for thought, I just read something recently about the Favorite cover in the SB at a pretty high clip
 
Joe Public said:
NYG ML If I can get +700 I will bet to win 10G'z

You'll never see that outside of in-game betting when the Giants are down. At best you'll get high 400s, maybe +500, but probably not.

When the Rams laid -14 to the Pats it got over +550, but never really that close to +600 after the open.

The ML will steadily go down on this game, likely ending in the high +200s and mid +300s before kickoff. Not because of the bets coming in on it, so much, but because they can lower it and lower it and people will still take it.
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Im gonna have to go to vegas maybe ?

Mr Bator got +710 or 720 on the chargers with a similar spread you never know. but yeat I think the best I will get is 500-600 cuz people seem to like the Gmen now
 
Mags said:
The one guy that I was hoping to hear from...:bow:

I'll be waiting Dub! In the mean time, let's grab some more cash in college hoops huh? :cheers:
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Headed to Vegas for the SB... Hope to build the bankroll in CBB next couple of weeks.. Going to be very selective. Plus add in a few BAR tails in NBA. :smiley_acbe:
 
m gonna have to go to vegas maybe ?

You will get worse numbers in Vegas, guaranteed.

I expect that they've put up the Giants right now on the ML at around +410.

I don't see this ML ever going above +550 in Vegas, and that's assuming the line goes to 14. Frankly, I don't think it goes over +500 in Vegas.

You'll get your best odds online.

An example, before this weekend I got the Packers to win the SB at over 5/1 online. Even the poorer numbers were above +500. But in Vegas I never saw a number better than 4/1 and that 4/1 lasted about half a night on Thursday. Friday it was 7/2, then today 3/1.

Again, it will be that because they can do it and people will still play it.
 
:whip:
tee*dub said:
Headed to Vegas for the SB... Hope to build the bankroll in CBB next couple of weeks.. Going to be very selective. Plus add in a few BAR tails in NBA. :smiley_acbe:
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Do me a favor, make sure your "selective ass" is posting your plays!!! :prayer

Alright boys and girls, bed time. Great day for me, thanks again T Dub for the Temple play. See everyone around tomorrow.

Peace.

:cheers:
 
The money line is going crazy, at 5dimes its gone from -530 now at -475... Do you guys think in the long run it will go up or down?
 
Kramer said:
The money line is going crazy, at 5dimes its gone from -530 now at -475... Do you guys think in the long run it will go up or down?
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Good stuff, just the info i was looking for:cheers:

Just made a thread on ML estimates, BM didn't have
 
I took the 13 too and got a little Under 54. Both of these numbers are surprising. I was thinking 10.5 for the game and 51 for the total.

With the Pats not covering a game in nearly two months, I'm beyond shocked to see a 13.

The way the Giants are playing on defense, and the way they've been able to keep the opposition's offense off the field is really impressive. Coughlin should get a ton of credit for the way this team has played this year.
 
Coughlin should get a ton of credit for the way this team has played this year.

You don't want to give any credit to Spagnolo?

=)
 
Joe Public said:
.

You don't want to give any credit to Spagnolo?

=)
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Yeah, Spagnolo gets credit too. But Coughlin has gotten such a bad rap over the years, and the guy's a pretty decent coach. I'm having some issues that will need to be discussed with my shrink this week. All this sticking up for the Giants stuff just feels unclean. I need to go pop in my VHS tape of Riggo's TD run on 4th and 1 vs. the Dolphins in the greatest super bowl ever, and get back to basics.
 
scdoggy said:
Yeah, Spagnolo gets credit too. But Coughlin has gotten such a bad rap over the years, and the guy's a pretty decent coach. I'm having some issues that will need to be discussed with my shrink this week. All this sticking up for the Giants stuff just feels unclean. I need to go pop in my VHS tape of Riggo's TD run on 4th and 1 vs. the Dolphins in the greatest super bowl ever, and get back to basics.
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I saw you are a redskins fan......me too....

As a kid living in DC.....Theismann and Riggins.....:cheers:
 
Hey HawaiiGuy - Can't beat those days. Give me some Hogs, Dexter Manley, and Mosely kicking straight on field goals any day of the week.

I always read your posts over at the other place. Nice to see a familiar face around here.

How's you make it from DC to Hawaii? I'd like to learn that trick. I've been to the islands a few times for fun, and could definitely spend a few years there. Honeymooned in Kauai for two weeks. Would love to come back sometime soon
 
Spag's play calling this playoff has been unreal, commentators are all over his shorts.

He was actually my biggest fear about this game, because over the last few years the Eagles have defensed Farve very well.

He's not why I lost, though, I didn't see NY getting to 20 points in this game. That's what killed me.

But I give Coughlin a lot of credit for these playoffs as well. Whatever he's done to grow up Eli has worked. And whatever he's done to get that defense and all those other guys to play through injury, it's really impressive.
 
Hawaiiguy said:
Good stuff, just the info i was looking for:cheers:

Just made a thread on ML estimates, BM didn't have
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Can't see this going anywhere but down don't you think? I've said it before, I think both of these numbers (in particular the opening numbers) are out of control!
 
If it goes back up i'll be taking the G-Men.....but I'll be rooting for N.E. to win it....I don't think they cover this one either......:smiley_acbe:
 
I'd love this fucker to continue going down (although I don't think that it will) so that I can get a nice middle but it would have to get to 10 for that to make any sense.

Free - agree 100%, I've said it before, I'd love to see NE win to complete their mission but just not by too many:)
 
BetTheRent$ said:
I'm taking the points. I want the Pats to win, but not by too much!
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I agree but as Pats fans how can we not want to see them kick the ever-living shit out of a NY team? That being said if I play anything it'll be a tease on NYG & under.
 
I think this line could hit 10, believe it or not.

I'm shocked, absolutely shocked, that this line is moving as much as it is simply because it's a SB. But people see these pictures of Tom Brady in a boot and hear about him not practicing and lots and lots of them saw the Giants almost beat this team.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 10.
 
Mags, how you doin bro?

BOL on this one, looks like i'm on the other side. I haven't locked yet, but NE in the nice weather vs a banged up secondary, with Bellacheat having a chance to prove a point, is too much for me to pass up. I'd love to see 10 or less, but I think its going to start creeping back up.

I'll be laying the lumber on this one. NY is way too public for me, we all know how much $$$ it takes to move any line a 1/2 point, and this is the Super Bowl, moving over 3 points??

Vegas is seldom on the wrong side of that type of movement.

I will say however i'm a VERY solid 1-7 with or against NE this year, so clearly, i've got my finger on their pulse. LOL

BOL to you, we need to get a card game going here.

I'll talk to you soon!!
 
Article courtesy of redsoxwin work.

Odds are Vegas not pleased

Email|Print| Text size – + By Michael Vega
Globe Staff / January 24, 2008

Although the rest of the sporting world may look at the Patriots as being one win away from completing a perfect season, Las Vegas views them through a much different prism.
1201182403_6721.gif


To the oddsmakers on the Strip, the 18-0 Patriots are really 10-8.
"As far as the pointspread goes, that's correct," said Chuck Esposito, director of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace, where the Patriots were installed as 14-point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII Feb. 3.

"Granted, it's a lot of points," Esposito said, "but we looked for a number that would draw good two-way action [an equal number of bets on both teams]. We're not predicting who is going to win or lose, but it's a pointspread that we feel is going to draw good two-way action."

Since its initial release, however, the pointspread has gone down to 12, which, oddsmakers say, is not so much a reflection of the recent news about quarterback Tom Brady's right ankle sprain as it is of the Patriots' 2-7 record vs. the spread in their last nine games.

"[Brady] would probably affect the line more than anybody in the NFL; maybe Peyton Manning could rival him," said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "But it might be a 10-point drop if it went from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel. It would probably go down to New England 3. But there's not any feeling out there that Brady won't play."

Before news broke about Brady's ankle, "I think the betting public was looking for value and felt that, at 13 or 14, there was just too good a value on the Giants," Esposito said. "They have covered nine out of 10 road games and have won 10 straight road games and covered all three playoff games."

It has prompted many bettors to take the Giants and the points.
"We opened the Super Bowl line at 14 and it quickly moved from 14 to 13 1/2, and ever since then, it's been dropping little by little," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, who estimated that 70 percent of the early action has been on the Giants. "It's a little odd, because the favorite in the Super Bowl is always inflated and in this case, it's no different. This is one line that we make that's geared toward the general public, because the general public's money always dominates the action in the Super Bowl. When we put that line out, we expected a little bit more support on the Patriots and we haven't seen that yet, but we're hoping it comes out later."

At the beginning of the season, the Patriots were a sure bet after they trampled not only their opposition en route to an 8-0 start, but the Vegas sports books as well, beating the spread in those wins. Their perfect record (against the spread, that is) was blemished when they failed to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 24-20 triumph at Indianapolis Nov. 4.

"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Kornegay said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season. The last game that we won - one of the games that we won - was the Eagles game [a 31-28 Patriots triumph]. That was the last game we saw this huge snowball effect of support for the Patriots.

"Ever since then, it's kind of been a lukewarm feeling from our gamblers."
That was likely because the Patriots have been performing poorly against the spread since midseason.

"The Patriots really are an incredible team and our lines reflect their excellence," Sinisi said. "Earlier in the year, they were covering the spread at an inordinate rate. So what we do is we always adjust off the results and the betting action each week, and those lines would continually go up and up and up.

"They've kind of reached a point where the Patriots are continuing to win, but they're not covering, which is lessening the pain on our end."
The only games in which the Patriots beat the spread in their last nine were against Buffalo (favored by 16, they won, 56-10) and Pittsburgh (they won, 34-13, after the line dropped from 15 to 10 1/2) when "a lot of money came in on Pittsburgh," Sinisi said).

"Last week against San Diego [a 21-12 win], it was 14 and there was a little fluctuation back and forth, but it closed at 14," Sinisi said. "The previous week [a 31-20 win], we opened them at 11 1/2 against Jacksonville and they closed at 13 1/2, so there was New England money. Even though they have cooled off spread-wise, they are still the glamour team and the numbers are still big because of a) performance and b) they still draw money."

And money, as everyone knows, follows money.
"It's been very difficult to book these games," Kornegay said. "They're 18-0 and the books have won maybe four of those games. The rest of those games, we've lost on. During the course of the year, the Patriots games have been like mini-Super Bowls for us.

"In most cases, it's been the game of the week. It's the game that has the most action on it, and whether you bet against them or for them, everybody's watching the Patriot game. And in most cases, the book wound up on the short end of the stick when the results came in.
"I can't say that we've really 'loved' the Patriots, but I can say this: It's been an exciting year and the Patriots obviously have been a big part of it. The electricity and the atmosphere in the sports books every time the Patriots play has just been tremendous; however, the sports book results haven't been in our favor most of the time."
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According to this, the books are roughly 4-14 ATS vs the betting public for Patriot games. Seems like, you fade the public in Patriot games, you get burnt.
 
Joe Public said:
I think this line could hit 10, believe it or not.
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I highly doubt this line will drop past 11. No way does vegas set this line @ 14 & then drop it past 2 key numbers. If it hits 10, I'm buying it down to 6 & hitting it hard. I've been fading the Pats ats every game since the Eagles game, this one looks a lot like the Steelers game to me.
 
except the giants have a better D & better running game than pitt this year, especially during the 2nd half of season when pitt was decimated by injuries (pitt fan speaking). a lot of people I respect are on the Pats, but I have watched every snap of the giants games since they played bufflao (last 4 games) & I am very impressed by them. totally confused on which way to go.
 
I never thought the number would move off 13, but they seem to have abandoned that pretty easily.

A flat ten I could understand might be tough, but there's not a gigantic difference between 10.5 and 11/12.

But I'm with you, I'm on 13.5 and if I could get a flat 10 or less I'd go for the middle.
 
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