Nuggets vs Suns

[Gorgolon Lives]

Plays:

Phoenix Suns -7 1 unit(May add more later) (W)

Knicks +11 1 unit (Will middle when Dirk and/or Howard are announced OUT) (W)

NJ NETS +6 ** 2 units (W)

Raptors +5.5 ** 2 Units (W)

Pacers +7 1 unit (L)

ML Parlay...Risking 5units to win a little over 3 units: (W)

Seattle ML
Phoenix ML

Denver 2H +8 3 units (Hedge/Middle on the ML Parlay) (L)

Sonics 2H Pk 2 Units

Houston 2H Pk 2 units



Match-Up: Nuggets vs. Suns

I had this game circled after Denver routed the Suns by 24 on 3/17 in Denver. My only concern was whether or not this game would mean anything to the Suns. Well, now it is HUGE. Suns are off a pathetic loss last night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. Luckily, the big 3 from PHX sat a majority of the 4th Q. Around the 6:00 mark, D'Antoni had a shot down 10 to put his starters back in, but he didn't. I knew right then and there that they were playing to gear up for today's game. So, PHX is off a loss. That is a good reason to play them in and of itself. And they are also on 20pt revenge. But also seeding is key tonight.

The Spurs is just 2 games behind PHX for 2nd in the West. PHX plays a tough stretch AT Dallas on 4/1, and at the Spurs on 4/5. This is truly a MUST-win tonight.

Denver is struggling. They have lost 4 of 5. They are drained and frustrated right now. Their last 2 games involved a lucky full court shot by Sheed to force OT in a game they should have won. And a loss at home to Seattle as a 11 point favorite.

I'm starting to think seeding doesn't mean much to Denver, as long as they get in. No matter where they finish, they will still meet one of the big 3 on the road. Take your pick, you are still fucked either way!

GL :cheers:

 

[$$CMoney$$]

Looks good to me too Believe:cheers:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks, CMONEY. Believe it or not, I may add the Sixers for a large play also!

 

[$$CMoney$$]

First Glance I like Philly as well...They should take it by DD

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Another strategy I might do is play PHX in a ML Parlay with another really strong favorite. (A must-win favorite). And play that huge for like 5 units. And if PHX happens to lose SU somehow tonight, come back and hammer them vs. Dallas at + money on the moneyline.

Now I gotta find ONE MORE strong favorite tonight...

 

[Inspekdah]

I'll be on the Suns as well.

Boston has a crazy ATS record (75%) when avenging a home loss this season. Because of that it may be a no play... on the other hand.. I can't see them playing motivated ball on the road. Plus, they need to drop as many games as they possibly can or they will lose out on one of the two studs... and we know they won't TRY for that... but we certainley knows what Danny Ainge wants.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Philly is DUE for a blowout win. They usually have 1 blowout like every 10 games. I think this one is it. It seems Pierce won't play with this line. Boston has won 2 straight, and off a dramatic double-ot win. Philly let that Wizards win slip out of their hands. They are back home, and should handle Boston without Pierce.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Right now I have a small 1 unit stake on Suns -7 on a buy.

 

[thecakeoff]

Suns going to be a 2* because they laying bunch of pts

 

[brewer]

me likes

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks, Cake & Brewers.

The size of the play might increase based on line moves.

 

[brewer]

im thinking of putting 20% of my BR on phoenix moneyline. :new_shocked:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Brewers...I've done something similar before in the past, and I've had mixed results. Laying almost 3.5 to 1 is nerve-wrecking, which is why I'm searching for another ML to parlay. I'm liking the Spurs. Utah leads the season series 2-1, and like I said up top, SAS is right behind PHX for 2nd. They'd love to be 1 game back entering Thurs night when they take on the Suns AT HOME. I can't see Spurs losing SU tonight.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Spurs ML + Suns ML Parlay sits at -155 at my book right now. That is a pretty solid play.

 

[brewer]

ya i was thinking much the same. maybe add orlando too (fade indy once again).

 

[brewer]

you like the queens. i have a feeling they cover tonight.

 

[brewer]

im gonna do a ml parlay tonight. this card looks tasty.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My leans are:

Suns
Kings
Sixers
Raptors (ML too) Might go big
Spurs ML

 

[thecakeoff]

wiz will tank that game on purpose so tor can stay on top of mia

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Raptors, Spurs, Suns ML parlay pays almost 3.5 to 1.

That is fucking amazing!

 

[brewer]

mine are almost identical.

suns -7.5 and ml
kings -4 and ml
76ers ml
raptors +5
spurs ml
over 195.5 in la la land


im gonna go play some ball. i expect you to thin out my picks for me and produce a 4-0 or better night for me. dont let me down.

 

[thecakeoff]

lakers and nicks ML parlay pays 14:1

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

wiz will tank that game on purpose so tor can stay on top of mia

Line seems short to me. Wiz had loads of trouble w/ Philly, now they face Tor. off a huge win vs Miami. Who's covering Bosh tonight? I love what Im hearing from the Tor. newspapers today, as well:

"I was talking to Jay (Triano, assistant coach) about that earlier. We've been having a lot of good-game, bad-game (situations)," all-star forward Chris Bosh said yesterday. "In a seven-game series, that's not going to work.
"Sometimes we let our guard down after a big win, and we have to make sure we don't do that."



******************************************************




"[Home court] definitely matters," he said. "We have to protect our home court right now until our road record catches up. I think this is a good challenge for us, because to win in the playoffs, you have to win on the road. It's going to be a tough, hostile environment for us, but we have to find a way to overcome it."

 

[thecakeoff]

Chris Bosh prop over 21.5 !

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I do like the Bosh prop. But he can also dominate a game without scoring. I believe he had something like 13 and 18 vs the Heat last game. Still a GREAT game, but not so great for the scoring prop.

 

[redbearde]

Article on the Suns. I think BeLieve's analysis is spot-on.

Link

That sinking feeling
Suns dominated from start, lose ground to Spurs

Paul Coro
The Arizona Republic
Mar. 30, 2007 12:00 AM

OAKLAND - Long before Thursday's final score read 124-119 - and that was only because the Suns' second unit minimized the Golden State Warriors' domination - there was cause for concern with a Phoenix team finishing March like a feather being blown about aimlessly in the breeze.

When the Suns appeared defenseless in giving up 45 first-quarter points to the Warriors, it was cause for concern.

When the NBA's best free-throw-shooting team missed 9 of 18 at the stripe in the first half and Leandro Barbosa missed four layups, there was cause for concern. When Steve Nash lost his dribble into the backcourt in the third quarter, was stripped driving the lane on the next trip and was assessed a technical foul moments later when the ball was poked loose again, it was cause for concern.

When Amaré Stoudemire was the one being dunked on by Andris Biedrins, it was cause for concern.

The accumulation of those moments has put the San Antonio Spurs hot on the Suns' heels for the second playoff seed in the West. The Spurs are within two games because the Suns regulars were worked over in the same building that the Spurs rocked Golden State 126-89 on Monday.

The Suns are 3-4 since beating the Dallas Mavericks on March 14.

"They were playing at a frenzied pace," Suns guard Raja Bell said. "It was tough to keep up with them offensively and defensively. They would've beaten every team in the league tonight. They were that hot."

An unlikely but better defensive quintet of Barbosa, Marcus Banks, James Jones, Boris Diaw and Kurt Thomas played the entire fourth quarter, cutting Golden State's lead from 109-86 to 122-116 with 1:09 to play before Baron Davis stole the ball from Banks and made a victory-securing layup.

"I wish we had two more minutes," Banks said.

The Suns regulars could not stop any Warriors player early, watching Golden State run off 15 unanswered points in a 2:11 stretch with a small lineup that coach Don Nelson had not started this season.

Jason Richardson, 2 for 20 in his previous two games, hit his first seven shots, including five three-pointers. The Warriors led 42-22 and finished the quarter with 45 points, their highest-scoring quarter since 1991 and two below Phoenix's opponent franchise record.

"We still haven't got better defensively," Amaré Stoudemire said.

Richardson scored 36 points and broke the franchise record for three-pointers with eight, just as Sacramento's Mike Bibby did against Phoenix on Sunday with nine threes.

As Denver did March 17, Golden State scored 100 well before the third quarter ended. "I thought we played hard," Suns coach Mike D'Antoni said. "They just played better. There were some holes in our stuff we need to get better at, but I think we played well enough to beat most teams on the road most nights."

 

[thecakeoff]

I do like the Bosh prop. But he can also dominate a game without scoring. I believe he had something like 13 and 18 vs the Heat last game. Still a GREAT game, but not so great for the scoring prop.

well thats at home where all the raptors play well i like the bosh prop even more that blatcha is out for wash and those two 7 footer shooters for the raps

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks for posting, Red. I love Bell's quote! Definately something I would say, because I can never except the fact that I should have lost (a bet).

"They were playing at a frenzied pace," Suns guard Raja Bell said. "It was tough to keep up with them offensively and defensively. They would've beaten every team in the league tonight. They were that hot."

 

[Supersav]

raps play bad on the road

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

raps play bad on the road

Thats what Im trying to say: How can you justify a -4 in this spot? Wiz excellent at home, Raps poor on the road. This line should be at least 6. Luckily, it's climbing up there.

 

[thecakeoff]

3* Suns -7.5 and 1* Chris Bosh over 21.5 points

 

[redbearde]

Denver's games since mid March:

03/15/2007 vs LA Lakers W 113 - 86 W (-4½) U (212½) Recap
03/17/2007 vs Phoenix W 131 - 107 W (2) O (222½) Recap
03/20/2007 at New Jersey W 94 - 90 W (1½) U (210) Recap
03/22/2007 at Chicago L 109 - 108 W (3½) O (203) Recap
03/23/2007 at Toronto L 121 - 94 L (3) O (208½) Recap
03/25/2007 at Cleveland W 105 - 93 W (6) U (204) Recap
03/26/2007 at Detroit L 113 - 109 W (4½) O (195½) Recap
03/28/2007 vs Seattle L 100 - 97 L (-11) U (209) Recap
03/30/2007 at Phoenix N/A
04/01/2007 at Seattle N/A

they hada few games at home so they could lose to Seattle without Ray Allen, but that's just one game. They've been traveling since the 19th.

One thing I really don't like about this bet is that the Nuggets are a good rebounding team. If the Suns are shooting 50% (on friday at home, they should), then that shouldn't be a huge problem.

 

[redbearde]

if you think these things are important...

Denver is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Denver is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

I bold what I think is important.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

47-38 on the glass last meeting. But Denver didnt miss, shooting 57%. Suns DID have 9 O boards that game.

 

[thecakeoff]

fk trends

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm not a HUGE fan of the ATS play. But I'm more into the SU play. I simply DO NOT think PHX loses this game. And while I wont lay the 3.5/1 on the ML, I DO think it's a cheap price. I will put this into a parlay.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I just took NYK +11....Hoping for a middle.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I will be adding Houston Rockets when the line dips back down.

 

[thecakeoff]

do you know if kwame is starting/playing?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

DNP last game, so I dunno.

 

[Trueblue]

With you on Raps, believe, there is some ridiculously blatant line moving going on here...gonna hit it as soon as it settles at a solid +5.. gl

 

[Inspekdah]

Raptors are a good play because it's not usually the 1st game when a player returns from injury that they struggle... it's the 2nd... once shape and fatigue set in. Butler played well vs. a bad road Philly team. I don't think the Wiz necessarily care a ton about this game... and after BARELY beating the Sixers... add in a fishy line... and this is a strong play.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks guys,

Added the ESPN game for 2 units w/ NJ

 

[Inspekdah]

Almost 10:1 on NJ, TOR ML. Worth a small play IMO

On Minny +1.5, TOR +4.5, and PHO -7.5 myself

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Not a huge fan of NJ w/ DET off a loss. But I think NJ has a shot, so I took the 6. Hopefully I wont need the points.

I just added Torn. +5.5 for 2 units.

 

[Supersav]

espn game is orlando here in nyc

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Fuck, Sav. Your right. Scoresandodds.com had NJ listed. FUCK!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

What do you guys think of the Tv game then? The line is Magic -7. I dunno why they are giving up so many, considering they just lost to Boston.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Added: 5 unit parlay