Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 2: NBA Best Bets
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Game 2 Capping Strategy
Game 1 between the Lakers and Nuggets took place on Friday and the Lakers had no trouble covering the seven-point spread.
I will want to bet on Denver in Game 2 if I find that I can respond affirmatively to the following two questions.
One, did Game 1 not play out as it should have on paper? If Game 1 was a weird event relative to expectations generated by match-up analysis, then I grow even more inclined to expect Game 2 to play according to how it should on paper.
Two, is there any data, especially trends, on the basis of which I may for whatever reason expect the losing team in Game 1 to find a way to bounce back?
What Happened In Game One: Denver’s Defense
The Lakers owned the paint as long as they felt like the game wasn’t sealed. They accrued 54 points in paint, which exceed their season average.
They attacked the basket in a variety of ways. They utilized positive spacing in order to create on-on-one matches.
By taking advantage of Denver’s aggressive ball-screen coverage, they created favorable mismatches.
Knowing that Denver likes to double the post, they lured Nugget bigs away from the basket enough to create opportunities for Laker players to cut behind the basket.
Likewise, fully expecting the Nuggets to double the ball-hander in their aggressive ball-screen coverage, L.A. responded by slipping their screens.
Another big source of points in the paint came for L.A. in transition — off of steals, etc.
Expectations
L.A.’s advantage inside is to be expected.
Because the Lakers rank second in points in the paint per game, Denver’s interior defense needs to be a strength.
But, based on frequency of opposing shot attempts and of opposing shots made within six feet of the basket, Denver’s interior defense is not strong.
Part of the problem is Nugget big Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is often expected to defend the rim. But he isn’t a shot-blocker and he gets graded as poor in contesting shot attempts at the rim.
In other ways, too, Denver’s defensive issues are nothing new. They are simply being exploited by the Lakers.
For example, Denver ranks second-worst among playoff teams in PPP (points per possession) against shots attempted in transition.
Transition play is a regular source of offense for the Lakers, who rank top-five among playoff teams both in frequency of and PPP of shots attempted in transition.
When L.A.’s defense began to tighten up, the Lakers accrued more fast-break opportunities and points.
They also increased the tempo of the game, thus making the Nuggets uncomfortable as they prefer to crawl and grind with slow pace almost as strongly as any other playoff team.
Nuggets Offense vs. Lakers Defense: Challenges
In order to beat the Lakers, Denver will need to maximize the scoring output of its two stars, Jokic and Jamal Murray.
When choosing which team to invest in, one likes to hear how that team will present unique challenges to its opponent.
This uniqueness is available on both sides.
In Dwight Howard, especially, but also in a couple of his teammates, Jokic will have to encounter a level of physicality that he hasn’t encountered before in the playoffs.
To deal with the likes of Anthony Davis inside, Jokic is also going to have to work harder on the defensive end.
These two factors help explain why, in terms of field goal percentage and average scoring output, Jokic’s poorer games tend to come against the Lakers.
Denver, though, is unique, too, with how effective its favored pick-and-roll attack is.
Jamal Murray is hard to defend in this play type because he gladly beats drop coverage with pull-up jumpers. But he also beast the hard hedge by passing to Jokic in a four-on-three situation, Jokic is a known, positive facilitator of offense in Denver’s system.
Overcoming Challenges
The thing is that Jokic can’t escape his challenges — facing Howard inside and expending more energy on defense against Davis, etc.
But the Lakers, in turn, do have more options with which to limit Denver’s ball-screen game. One aspect in their favor is their relatively strong ability to switch on screens.
Broader Expectations & First-Half
Losing to L.A. is not new for Denver especially in the first half.
In four regular season games, Denver finished 1-3 ATS in the first half against the Lakers. In the one exception, LeBron didn’t play.
After Game 1, this trend has continued, thus making Denver 1-4 ATS so far in the first half against the Lakers.
I also dislike Denver in the first half after losing its previous game.
After losing a playoff game, Denver lost the first half of its ensuing game by at least eight points in four of six attempts. One exception was a one-point win against weaker Utah and a bizarre 16-point win against the Clippers.
This negative first-half tendency likely reflects on the coach. It’s the coach’s job to game-plan and otherwise prepare his players to come out strong.
Evidently, Denver coach Mike Malone is more of a second-half guy and not a first-guy.
The Verdict
Trends dissuade me from expecting (Malone to help) Denver accomplish a turnaround in the first half of Sunday’s game.
Instead, the first half will continue to play out as it should on paper — with L.A.’s characteristically strong transition game and rim attack exploiting Denver’s characteristically resistance-free transition defense and lack of rim protection.
Defensively, physicality inside and switching on screens will help the Lakers ensure a cover.
Best Bet: First-Half Lakers -4.5 (-121) with Bookmaker
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Game 2 Capping Strategy
Game 1 between the Lakers and Nuggets took place on Friday and the Lakers had no trouble covering the seven-point spread.
I will want to bet on Denver in Game 2 if I find that I can respond affirmatively to the following two questions.
One, did Game 1 not play out as it should have on paper? If Game 1 was a weird event relative to expectations generated by match-up analysis, then I grow even more inclined to expect Game 2 to play according to how it should on paper.
Two, is there any data, especially trends, on the basis of which I may for whatever reason expect the losing team in Game 1 to find a way to bounce back?
What Happened In Game One: Denver’s Defense
The Lakers owned the paint as long as they felt like the game wasn’t sealed. They accrued 54 points in paint, which exceed their season average.
They attacked the basket in a variety of ways. They utilized positive spacing in order to create on-on-one matches.
By taking advantage of Denver’s aggressive ball-screen coverage, they created favorable mismatches.
Knowing that Denver likes to double the post, they lured Nugget bigs away from the basket enough to create opportunities for Laker players to cut behind the basket.
Likewise, fully expecting the Nuggets to double the ball-hander in their aggressive ball-screen coverage, L.A. responded by slipping their screens.
Another big source of points in the paint came for L.A. in transition — off of steals, etc.
Expectations
L.A.’s advantage inside is to be expected.
Because the Lakers rank second in points in the paint per game, Denver’s interior defense needs to be a strength.
But, based on frequency of opposing shot attempts and of opposing shots made within six feet of the basket, Denver’s interior defense is not strong.
Part of the problem is Nugget big Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is often expected to defend the rim. But he isn’t a shot-blocker and he gets graded as poor in contesting shot attempts at the rim.
In other ways, too, Denver’s defensive issues are nothing new. They are simply being exploited by the Lakers.
For example, Denver ranks second-worst among playoff teams in PPP (points per possession) against shots attempted in transition.
Transition play is a regular source of offense for the Lakers, who rank top-five among playoff teams both in frequency of and PPP of shots attempted in transition.
When L.A.’s defense began to tighten up, the Lakers accrued more fast-break opportunities and points.
They also increased the tempo of the game, thus making the Nuggets uncomfortable as they prefer to crawl and grind with slow pace almost as strongly as any other playoff team.
Nuggets Offense vs. Lakers Defense: Challenges
In order to beat the Lakers, Denver will need to maximize the scoring output of its two stars, Jokic and Jamal Murray.
When choosing which team to invest in, one likes to hear how that team will present unique challenges to its opponent.
This uniqueness is available on both sides.
In Dwight Howard, especially, but also in a couple of his teammates, Jokic will have to encounter a level of physicality that he hasn’t encountered before in the playoffs.
To deal with the likes of Anthony Davis inside, Jokic is also going to have to work harder on the defensive end.
These two factors help explain why, in terms of field goal percentage and average scoring output, Jokic’s poorer games tend to come against the Lakers.
Denver, though, is unique, too, with how effective its favored pick-and-roll attack is.
Jamal Murray is hard to defend in this play type because he gladly beats drop coverage with pull-up jumpers. But he also beast the hard hedge by passing to Jokic in a four-on-three situation, Jokic is a known, positive facilitator of offense in Denver’s system.
Overcoming Challenges
The thing is that Jokic can’t escape his challenges — facing Howard inside and expending more energy on defense against Davis, etc.
But the Lakers, in turn, do have more options with which to limit Denver’s ball-screen game. One aspect in their favor is their relatively strong ability to switch on screens.
Broader Expectations & First-Half
Losing to L.A. is not new for Denver especially in the first half.
In four regular season games, Denver finished 1-3 ATS in the first half against the Lakers. In the one exception, LeBron didn’t play.
After Game 1, this trend has continued, thus making Denver 1-4 ATS so far in the first half against the Lakers.
I also dislike Denver in the first half after losing its previous game.
After losing a playoff game, Denver lost the first half of its ensuing game by at least eight points in four of six attempts. One exception was a one-point win against weaker Utah and a bizarre 16-point win against the Clippers.
This negative first-half tendency likely reflects on the coach. It’s the coach’s job to game-plan and otherwise prepare his players to come out strong.
Evidently, Denver coach Mike Malone is more of a second-half guy and not a first-guy.
The Verdict
Trends dissuade me from expecting (Malone to help) Denver accomplish a turnaround in the first half of Sunday’s game.
Instead, the first half will continue to play out as it should on paper — with L.A.’s characteristically strong transition game and rim attack exploiting Denver’s characteristically resistance-free transition defense and lack of rim protection.
Defensively, physicality inside and switching on screens will help the Lakers ensure a cover.
Best Bet: First-Half Lakers -4.5 (-121) with Bookmaker
