Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz Game 6 Top Bet
Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
Sunday, August 29, 2020 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida
The Importance of Jamal Murray
Many proclaim that Game 5 was won very much due to the individual play of Denver guard Jamal Murray.
The difficulty of the shots that he was making did provide proof of how difficult it was and can be to guard him.
The offensive quality that he provides is something that you can count on with fair regularity.
But Murray is not everything. In Game 4, for example, Murray eclipsed the 50-point mark and his team still lost.
Jazz Players Need To Step Up Offensively
While Murray was simply his usual self in the bubble, Utah regressed offensively in Game 5. This offensive difficulty is what will need to change for Utah to win.
So the key variable for Sunday’s contest is threefold: Donovan Mitchell’s ability to respond to Murray’s offensive productivity, Utah’s ability to succeed with its pick-and-roll attack, and Mitchell to receive a stronger supporting cast.
One supporting player who let down Utah in Game 5 was Mike Conley.
In both of Utah’s Game 4 and Game 3 victories, Conley surpassed 25 points. In Game 5’s defeat, he failed to reach 20 points.
Utah’s Offensive Regression
For Utah to improve offensively as it needs to, its preferred style of offense will have to function effectively.
Its offensive struggles are reflected in Game 5’s tale of two halves.
While Utah was up by nine at halftime, the Nuggets won the second half by 19 thanks to defensive adjustments.
In particular, they alternated from a drop coverage ball-screen defense to a more aggressive scheme.
This switch in ball-screen coverage is responsible for Utah’s offensive regression.
Denver’s Defensive Scheme
One thing that Denver, in the second half, did well defensively is fight through screens.
At 10:00 in the following video, you can see a screen set for Joe Ingles, which his defender is able to fight through:
Look at 10:36 in the same video to see Jokic stepping up on a screen in order to cut off the driving lane of Utah’s ball-handler. Jokic is ultimately supported by a teammate who suffocates Donovan Mitchell's drive.
If you compare these two scenes with 1:40 in the same video, it’s clear to see what I mean. Denver no longer permitted screens to be an easy and rather uncontested source of scoring for the Jazz.
Can The Jazz Respond?
Utah needs to score in the half-court. It cannot score on fast breaks, nor does it even get many opportunities in transition.
Measured by frequency among playoff teams, the Jazz do the most pick-and-rolls where the ball-handler keeps possession. So ball-screen defense is critical against Utah.
This all means that the main question for tonight must be whether Utah can respond to Denver’s more aggressive ball-screen coverage.
I think Utah can absolutely respond. One crucial thing that needs to happen is that the Jazz need to play less hero ball.
Playmakers like Mitchell need to force less action when the space for action isn’t permitted by the defense.
Yes, Utah is at its best when Mitchell is creating plays — and it also helps that Rudy Gobert is absolutely one of the NBA’s top screen-setters.
But positive spacing and passing the ball around — two things which Utah did in the first half and often does against aggressive ball-screen defenses — both need to happen when Denver collapses on Mitchell inside the paint.
At 11:59 in the same video, you can see what I mean:
The play is not there for Mitchell to score, although he forces it anyways. But a play was there for him to make —he should have passed it back. Fixes like these are super simple for Utah’s offense.
In the first 30 seconds of this video, you can see what I mean:
Here, Utah is making plays against aggressive ball-screen defenses by waiting the pressure out, spacing the floor, and also finding open players when the defense commits itself to aggressive actions.
Expect more of this movement and stronger decisions from Utah today. Also look for Mike Conley to rediscover himself as a threat from deep. He’ll be a positive benefactor from Mitchell’s improved play and Utah’s pick-and-roll game, both of which will generate open three-point attempts.
After all, we are talking Nikola Jokic here — he is one of several Nuggets who rank among the worst individuals in the playoffs in defensive rating. We are talking about a Denver defense that’s allowing the second-highest PPP to the pick-and-roll ball-handler in the playoffs. This is a squad against which Utah can excel at what it likes to do.
The Verdict
A stronger team effort from Utah will involve, on offense, a positive response to the Nuggets’ ball-screen coverage and, on defense, ongoing effort to force Jamal Murray into making difficult shots.
Murray and, to a lesser degree Jokic, will score their typically high point load as they do in Denver’s wins and losses. But Utah’s pick-and-roll style will embrace a coordinated team attack that will produce a series-clinching win.
Best Bet: Jazz ML (-130) with BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
Sunday, August 29, 2020 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida
The Importance of Jamal Murray
Many proclaim that Game 5 was won very much due to the individual play of Denver guard Jamal Murray.
The difficulty of the shots that he was making did provide proof of how difficult it was and can be to guard him.
The offensive quality that he provides is something that you can count on with fair regularity.
But Murray is not everything. In Game 4, for example, Murray eclipsed the 50-point mark and his team still lost.
Jazz Players Need To Step Up Offensively
While Murray was simply his usual self in the bubble, Utah regressed offensively in Game 5. This offensive difficulty is what will need to change for Utah to win.
So the key variable for Sunday’s contest is threefold: Donovan Mitchell’s ability to respond to Murray’s offensive productivity, Utah’s ability to succeed with its pick-and-roll attack, and Mitchell to receive a stronger supporting cast.
One supporting player who let down Utah in Game 5 was Mike Conley.
In both of Utah’s Game 4 and Game 3 victories, Conley surpassed 25 points. In Game 5’s defeat, he failed to reach 20 points.
Utah’s Offensive Regression
For Utah to improve offensively as it needs to, its preferred style of offense will have to function effectively.
Its offensive struggles are reflected in Game 5’s tale of two halves.
While Utah was up by nine at halftime, the Nuggets won the second half by 19 thanks to defensive adjustments.
In particular, they alternated from a drop coverage ball-screen defense to a more aggressive scheme.
This switch in ball-screen coverage is responsible for Utah’s offensive regression.
Denver’s Defensive Scheme
One thing that Denver, in the second half, did well defensively is fight through screens.
At 10:00 in the following video, you can see a screen set for Joe Ingles, which his defender is able to fight through:
Look at 10:36 in the same video to see Jokic stepping up on a screen in order to cut off the driving lane of Utah’s ball-handler. Jokic is ultimately supported by a teammate who suffocates Donovan Mitchell's drive.
If you compare these two scenes with 1:40 in the same video, it’s clear to see what I mean. Denver no longer permitted screens to be an easy and rather uncontested source of scoring for the Jazz.
Can The Jazz Respond?
Utah needs to score in the half-court. It cannot score on fast breaks, nor does it even get many opportunities in transition.
Measured by frequency among playoff teams, the Jazz do the most pick-and-rolls where the ball-handler keeps possession. So ball-screen defense is critical against Utah.
This all means that the main question for tonight must be whether Utah can respond to Denver’s more aggressive ball-screen coverage.
I think Utah can absolutely respond. One crucial thing that needs to happen is that the Jazz need to play less hero ball.
Playmakers like Mitchell need to force less action when the space for action isn’t permitted by the defense.
Yes, Utah is at its best when Mitchell is creating plays — and it also helps that Rudy Gobert is absolutely one of the NBA’s top screen-setters.
But positive spacing and passing the ball around — two things which Utah did in the first half and often does against aggressive ball-screen defenses — both need to happen when Denver collapses on Mitchell inside the paint.
At 11:59 in the same video, you can see what I mean:
The play is not there for Mitchell to score, although he forces it anyways. But a play was there for him to make —he should have passed it back. Fixes like these are super simple for Utah’s offense.
In the first 30 seconds of this video, you can see what I mean:
Here, Utah is making plays against aggressive ball-screen defenses by waiting the pressure out, spacing the floor, and also finding open players when the defense commits itself to aggressive actions.
Expect more of this movement and stronger decisions from Utah today. Also look for Mike Conley to rediscover himself as a threat from deep. He’ll be a positive benefactor from Mitchell’s improved play and Utah’s pick-and-roll game, both of which will generate open three-point attempts.
After all, we are talking Nikola Jokic here — he is one of several Nuggets who rank among the worst individuals in the playoffs in defensive rating. We are talking about a Denver defense that’s allowing the second-highest PPP to the pick-and-roll ball-handler in the playoffs. This is a squad against which Utah can excel at what it likes to do.
The Verdict
A stronger team effort from Utah will involve, on offense, a positive response to the Nuggets’ ball-screen coverage and, on defense, ongoing effort to force Jamal Murray into making difficult shots.
Murray and, to a lesser degree Jokic, will score their typically high point load as they do in Denver’s wins and losses. But Utah’s pick-and-roll style will embrace a coordinated team attack that will produce a series-clinching win.
Best Bet: Jazz ML (-130) with BetOnline
