Nuggets vs. Clippers Game 1 Best Bet
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, September 3 at 9 p.m. ET (TNT)
Jamal Murray’s Elite Play
Point guard Jamal Murray owns most of the credit for bringing Denver to where it is now.
Murray is playing the best basketball of his career. In his team’s last series against Utah, he eclipsed the 40-point mark in three different games.
Utah center Rudy Gobert’s rim-protecting presence was never going to bother Murray as he’s characteristically not somebody who prefers attacking the basket.
Instead, Murray is strongest as a shooter. When he scores a lot of points, it’s typically because he’s so efficient in the mid-range game and behind the arc.
So far this postseason, he is converting 55 percent of his field goals and 53.3 percent of his three-point attempts.
While he is shooting as well as ever, he is also correcting his regular season deficiency as a driver. He’s been one of the most successful individuals at attacking the rim despite having to deal with the likes of Gobert.
In terms of success rate at driving to the basket. he ranks fifth in the playoffs.
What Murray Likes To Do
Primarily, Murray operates out of the pick-and-roll. 42 percent of the plays that he’s a part of involve a screen being set for him, the ball-handler, and Murray keeping possession after the screen.
With his 1.24 PPP (points per possession) off the pick-and-roll ball-handler action, he’s one of the NBA’s best in this type of play.
His expertise at maneuvering allows him to deal with icing and other aggressive ball-screen coverage screens.
He’ll use a screen to pull up for a jumper. He can wait out pressure and find other ways to generate space for an open shot or a drive.
So he is also the main reason why Denver ranks second-best right now in the playoffs in PPP off the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Basically, when Murray succeeds at what he wants to do, Denver does overwhelmingly as well.
Clippers Defense
Dallas, in its series against the Clippers, was as surprisingly competitive as it was because the Clippers, underwhelming as they seemed in general, failed to stop its best player, Luka Doncic.
To try and stop Doncic, L.A. largely did what it will also do to Murray. The Clippers tried to throw everything at Doncic, varying their tactics with blitzes, traps, sundry pick-and-roll coverages, and so on. They also put a number of different defenders on him.
The difference between Doncic and Murray is manifold. They are physically and stylistically very different players.
In studying L.A.’s roster, it seems more built to challenge Doncic than Murray because of its collection of taller and longer wings like Paul George and Marcus Morris.
As a guard, Murray demands a different kind of defensive attention, one that the Clippers will fail to provide.
This failure of L.A.’s defense will be most apparent in Game 1 as Patrick Beverley still recovers from a calf injury.
His calf injury has kept him out of every game since Game 1 against Dallas. Officially, Beverley is listed as ‚questionable.‘ Even if Beverley plays, he won’t be at his best and he’ll likely be restricted minutes-wise, as well. In contrast, Murray will be at his career-best.
So, Game 1 is the most enticing game for Denver supporters because of Beverley’s status, the status of the Clippers guard who is known for being a plague with his perimeter defense, and because Denver’s strong performance in Game 1 will take away the value that is being created by the increasing action on the Clippers.
General Matchup: Tempo
Generally speaking, this will be a battle of tempo.
Denver wants to play slowly and in the half-court. Los Angeles wants to increase tempo and play in transition.
Percentage-wise, the Nuggets excel at keeping their opponent’s frequency of transition play low.
The Clippers love to run off of defensive rebounds. But the Nuggets are statistically one of the very best offensive rebounding teams. Their ability to control the offensive glass will keep the game slow and will keep the Clippers from running.
L.A.’s lack of transition game will mean being confined offensively to the half-court, which is not what it wants to do.
It is true that the Clippers love to run the pick-and-roll ball-handler type play and that, defensively, Denver ranks poorly in PPP allowed against this play.
But do not be mistaken: Denver’s ranking against the pick-and-roll ball-handler creates a misleading reflection that is exaggerated by the team’s earlier play.
Denver’s comeback against Utah derives very much from its change in ball-screen coverage emphasis to a more aggressive style focused on trapping the opposing guards and ball-handlers.
General Matchup: Jokic
Right now, Denver owns the most PPP in the playoffs for post-ups.
Like usual, Nikola Jokic is stepping up in the playoffs. He’s physically fit and far exceeding his regular season scoring average. Right now, he’s averaging 26.3 points per game in the playoffs.
Jokic succeeded despite facing the NBA’s top rim protector in Utah’s Rudy Gobert.
L.A. has not shown in the playoffs that it possesses the defensive personnel to match Utah’s quality in this respect, although it faced a Dallas squad that finished .18 PPP behind Denver in post-up plays during the regular season.
Jokic will continue to be a tremendous scoring threat and he’ll continue to relieve Murray as an offensive initiator or enabler with his bevy of hand-offs, backdoor passes, and screens.
The Verdict
Los Angeles is hugely overrated right now. It is getting a lot of betting love despite lacking the personnel to resist what Denver likes to do offensively.
Murray and Jokic remain in elite form and, especially with their pick-and-roll attack, will score more than enough to keep the Nuggets within the spread.
On the other end, given Denver’s ability to control tempo with its prowess on the offensive glass, the Nuggets will be more comfortable. They’ll limit the Clippers to the half-court where they will showcase their strongly improved ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Nuggets +8.5 (-105) with Heritage
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, September 3 at 9 p.m. ET (TNT)
Jamal Murray’s Elite Play
Point guard Jamal Murray owns most of the credit for bringing Denver to where it is now.
Murray is playing the best basketball of his career. In his team’s last series against Utah, he eclipsed the 40-point mark in three different games.
Utah center Rudy Gobert’s rim-protecting presence was never going to bother Murray as he’s characteristically not somebody who prefers attacking the basket.
Instead, Murray is strongest as a shooter. When he scores a lot of points, it’s typically because he’s so efficient in the mid-range game and behind the arc.
So far this postseason, he is converting 55 percent of his field goals and 53.3 percent of his three-point attempts.
While he is shooting as well as ever, he is also correcting his regular season deficiency as a driver. He’s been one of the most successful individuals at attacking the rim despite having to deal with the likes of Gobert.
In terms of success rate at driving to the basket. he ranks fifth in the playoffs.
What Murray Likes To Do
Primarily, Murray operates out of the pick-and-roll. 42 percent of the plays that he’s a part of involve a screen being set for him, the ball-handler, and Murray keeping possession after the screen.
With his 1.24 PPP (points per possession) off the pick-and-roll ball-handler action, he’s one of the NBA’s best in this type of play.
His expertise at maneuvering allows him to deal with icing and other aggressive ball-screen coverage screens.
He’ll use a screen to pull up for a jumper. He can wait out pressure and find other ways to generate space for an open shot or a drive.
So he is also the main reason why Denver ranks second-best right now in the playoffs in PPP off the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Basically, when Murray succeeds at what he wants to do, Denver does overwhelmingly as well.
Clippers Defense
Dallas, in its series against the Clippers, was as surprisingly competitive as it was because the Clippers, underwhelming as they seemed in general, failed to stop its best player, Luka Doncic.
To try and stop Doncic, L.A. largely did what it will also do to Murray. The Clippers tried to throw everything at Doncic, varying their tactics with blitzes, traps, sundry pick-and-roll coverages, and so on. They also put a number of different defenders on him.
The difference between Doncic and Murray is manifold. They are physically and stylistically very different players.
In studying L.A.’s roster, it seems more built to challenge Doncic than Murray because of its collection of taller and longer wings like Paul George and Marcus Morris.
As a guard, Murray demands a different kind of defensive attention, one that the Clippers will fail to provide.
This failure of L.A.’s defense will be most apparent in Game 1 as Patrick Beverley still recovers from a calf injury.
His calf injury has kept him out of every game since Game 1 against Dallas. Officially, Beverley is listed as ‚questionable.‘ Even if Beverley plays, he won’t be at his best and he’ll likely be restricted minutes-wise, as well. In contrast, Murray will be at his career-best.
So, Game 1 is the most enticing game for Denver supporters because of Beverley’s status, the status of the Clippers guard who is known for being a plague with his perimeter defense, and because Denver’s strong performance in Game 1 will take away the value that is being created by the increasing action on the Clippers.
General Matchup: Tempo
Generally speaking, this will be a battle of tempo.
Denver wants to play slowly and in the half-court. Los Angeles wants to increase tempo and play in transition.
Percentage-wise, the Nuggets excel at keeping their opponent’s frequency of transition play low.
The Clippers love to run off of defensive rebounds. But the Nuggets are statistically one of the very best offensive rebounding teams. Their ability to control the offensive glass will keep the game slow and will keep the Clippers from running.
L.A.’s lack of transition game will mean being confined offensively to the half-court, which is not what it wants to do.
It is true that the Clippers love to run the pick-and-roll ball-handler type play and that, defensively, Denver ranks poorly in PPP allowed against this play.
But do not be mistaken: Denver’s ranking against the pick-and-roll ball-handler creates a misleading reflection that is exaggerated by the team’s earlier play.
Denver’s comeback against Utah derives very much from its change in ball-screen coverage emphasis to a more aggressive style focused on trapping the opposing guards and ball-handlers.
General Matchup: Jokic
Right now, Denver owns the most PPP in the playoffs for post-ups.
Like usual, Nikola Jokic is stepping up in the playoffs. He’s physically fit and far exceeding his regular season scoring average. Right now, he’s averaging 26.3 points per game in the playoffs.
Jokic succeeded despite facing the NBA’s top rim protector in Utah’s Rudy Gobert.
L.A. has not shown in the playoffs that it possesses the defensive personnel to match Utah’s quality in this respect, although it faced a Dallas squad that finished .18 PPP behind Denver in post-up plays during the regular season.
Jokic will continue to be a tremendous scoring threat and he’ll continue to relieve Murray as an offensive initiator or enabler with his bevy of hand-offs, backdoor passes, and screens.
The Verdict
Los Angeles is hugely overrated right now. It is getting a lot of betting love despite lacking the personnel to resist what Denver likes to do offensively.
Murray and Jokic remain in elite form and, especially with their pick-and-roll attack, will score more than enough to keep the Nuggets within the spread.
On the other end, given Denver’s ability to control tempo with its prowess on the offensive glass, the Nuggets will be more comfortable. They’ll limit the Clippers to the half-court where they will showcase their strongly improved ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Nuggets +8.5 (-105) with Heritage
