Game 6 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Minnesota Is Favored For Good Reason
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 16, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Don't Count Out The Timberwolves
People are counting out the Timberwolves because they enter Game 6 having lost three straight games.
But dismissing the Timberwolves is wrong because doing so ignores the capability that they've displayed in their losses.
We have to look beneath the surface to see that Minnesota is showing that it can beat Denver and that Minnesota is doing so in ways that make its outlook for Game 6 very strong.
Anthony Edwards
First of all, Anthony Edwards had one of his off games in Game 5.
Minnesota lost Game 5 by 15 with Edwards scoring 18 points, which is way more than 15 points fewer than he's scored in other games in this series.
That is, if Edwards would have had one of his stronger performances, then Minnesota could have very likely won.
Game 6 provides a great betting opportunity for the Timberwolves because Edwards is a reliable bounce-back option.
In the first round against Phoenix, he scored 15 points in Game 2 before scoring 36 points in Game 3.
Edwards, in this series, scored 44 points in Game 4 after scoring 19 points in Game 3.
He is one of those players who are simply unstoppable when they are hot. He'll take over games with his energetic, attacking style of play and make tough, contested shots.
The Importance of Nikola Jokic Is Overstated
We all know that Denver's star Nikola Jokic is very good. Cool.
But, first of all, he is not going to play out of his mind as he did in Game 5. That was a rare sort of performance that is going to happen at some point in a series.
It is most probable that he falls down to Earth only somewhat, though. But let's think about whether Minnesota can survive a more reasonable but still solid Jokic performance.
In Game 1, Jokic scored 32 points. The Timberwolves won by seven despite the fact that Denver also shot beyond itself from behind the arc and despite Michael Porter Jr., who is inconsistent and often disappears, having one of his great games. Minnesota has a lot of good individual defenders and scorers, such that one or two players won't beat it.
Supporting Casts
This game will come down to Edwards' supporting cast being remotely close to as good as we know it can be.
Karl-Anthony Towns has shown repeatedly that he can handle Aaron Gordon's defense. Minnesota lost Game 4 because Towns no-showed, but he reliably scores 20+ points.
As for the rest of Edwards' supporting cast, this group underperformed tremendously in Game 5.
Minnesota, as a team, made a ridiculously awful three of 18 wide-open three-point opportunities. No NBA team should be expected to be that bad.
Takeaway
Denver's chances of winning rely to heavily on Edwards being lackluster, Towns underperforming, Minnesota missing a ton of wide-open threes, and Jokic being out-of-this-world.
Normally a strong bounce-back team, Minnesota is going to do to Denver what it did to a Phoenix team that supposedly matched up excellently against it.
Great games from Edwards and a good one from Towns, a decent shooting performance, and Jokic being less than perfect will produce a double-digit win. There's a lot of margin of error here for the Timberwolves to still win, meaning that it can withstand a masterclass performance from Jokic, because it has the offensive firepower and the breadth of individual quality on defense to win by a clear margin.
Hoping for a superstar like Edwards to underperform or for a clearly very capable player like Towns to play poorly or for the Timberwolves to brick a ton of wide-open shots again is just silly.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -2.5 at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
More Effort and Energy
Indiana lost Game 5 because it gave up too easily.
Missed layups demoralized the team, but the greatest cause of its demise in Game 5 was a lack of effort and energy.
Throughout the series, we've seen Indiana compete on the glass well. So there is no other explanation for their failure to do so in Game 5. The turnovers were also inexplicable.
The root cause of Indiana's failure in Game 5 was psychological.
Namely, the Pacers have trouble with taking their opponent seriously.
After winning the regular season series against Milwaukee, they failed to take the Bucks minus Giannis seriously in Game 1 of that series.
Repeatedly, they play down to their opponents' level.
I didn't play the Pacers in Game 5, because a blowout win in Game 4 had set them up to be complacent.
But now that they've been blown out and embarrassed, they are going to come back strong.
Looking aside from this psychology factor, we saw a similar concatenation of events in the last series when Indiana, late in its series against the Bucks, lost big on the road before coming back home and winning big.
The Pacers have, in this series, thrived at home, winning Game 3 only by five because the Knicks shot well beyond themselves from behind the arc, Donte DiVincenzo played incredibly well, and the Pacers' bench underperformed significantly.
Indiana won Game 4 in blowout fashion, though, for reasons that are more sustainable.
The Pacers, in Game 4, outperformed the Knicks from behind the arc – their home three-point shooting percentage is indeed excellent on the season.
Their breadth of scoring talent won out, overall, whereas the Knicks miss depth and scorers, especially with OG Anunoby out.
Guards
It is well-known, statistically, that Andrew Nembhard can't guard Jalen Brunson – although the Pacers can evidently win when he does spend time guarding Brunson.
Aaron Nesmith with his length and T.J. McConnell, however, do a good job of limiting Brunson's field goal efficiency when either one operates as his primary defender.
Because I know this and everybody knows this, we should expect Indiana's head coach to follow common sense and defend Brunson accordingly, although Indiana will still win significantly even if Brunson goes off.
Whereas the Knicks lack consistent double-digit scorers, the Pacers have Pascal Siakam and a Haliburton who reliably does a great job of bouncing back from an overly passive performance.
Myles Turner is too tough for the less mobile Isaiah Hartenstein to account for on the perimeter.
Nembhard is a helpful weapon from deep, and Obi Toppin and McConnell repeatedly score double digits off the bench.
Indiana, in sum, has too much firepower especially when it's focused at home, and we saw in Game 4 when it held the Knicks to 89 points that it can defend well against this shorthanded group.
Bonus Consideration
I want to be clear that I am not relying on this potential factor, but it is a potential factor that would be significant.
I believe that New York might be less motivated for Game 6.
The Knicks know that Game 7 would be in their venue, where the Pacers are 0-3 in this series.
They know that they are short-handed, too.
It seems very possible to me that they refuse to tire themselves out in Game 6 and that they reserve their efforts for Game 7.
If they thus lack motivation, then the Pacers would win by 30 points instead of by 10-20 points.
Best Bet: Pacers -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 16, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Don't Count Out The Timberwolves
People are counting out the Timberwolves because they enter Game 6 having lost three straight games.
But dismissing the Timberwolves is wrong because doing so ignores the capability that they've displayed in their losses.
We have to look beneath the surface to see that Minnesota is showing that it can beat Denver and that Minnesota is doing so in ways that make its outlook for Game 6 very strong.
Anthony Edwards
First of all, Anthony Edwards had one of his off games in Game 5.
Minnesota lost Game 5 by 15 with Edwards scoring 18 points, which is way more than 15 points fewer than he's scored in other games in this series.
That is, if Edwards would have had one of his stronger performances, then Minnesota could have very likely won.
Game 6 provides a great betting opportunity for the Timberwolves because Edwards is a reliable bounce-back option.
In the first round against Phoenix, he scored 15 points in Game 2 before scoring 36 points in Game 3.
Edwards, in this series, scored 44 points in Game 4 after scoring 19 points in Game 3.
He is one of those players who are simply unstoppable when they are hot. He'll take over games with his energetic, attacking style of play and make tough, contested shots.
The Importance of Nikola Jokic Is Overstated
We all know that Denver's star Nikola Jokic is very good. Cool.
But, first of all, he is not going to play out of his mind as he did in Game 5. That was a rare sort of performance that is going to happen at some point in a series.
It is most probable that he falls down to Earth only somewhat, though. But let's think about whether Minnesota can survive a more reasonable but still solid Jokic performance.
In Game 1, Jokic scored 32 points. The Timberwolves won by seven despite the fact that Denver also shot beyond itself from behind the arc and despite Michael Porter Jr., who is inconsistent and often disappears, having one of his great games. Minnesota has a lot of good individual defenders and scorers, such that one or two players won't beat it.
Supporting Casts
This game will come down to Edwards' supporting cast being remotely close to as good as we know it can be.
Karl-Anthony Towns has shown repeatedly that he can handle Aaron Gordon's defense. Minnesota lost Game 4 because Towns no-showed, but he reliably scores 20+ points.
As for the rest of Edwards' supporting cast, this group underperformed tremendously in Game 5.
Minnesota, as a team, made a ridiculously awful three of 18 wide-open three-point opportunities. No NBA team should be expected to be that bad.
Takeaway
Denver's chances of winning rely to heavily on Edwards being lackluster, Towns underperforming, Minnesota missing a ton of wide-open threes, and Jokic being out-of-this-world.
Normally a strong bounce-back team, Minnesota is going to do to Denver what it did to a Phoenix team that supposedly matched up excellently against it.
Great games from Edwards and a good one from Towns, a decent shooting performance, and Jokic being less than perfect will produce a double-digit win. There's a lot of margin of error here for the Timberwolves to still win, meaning that it can withstand a masterclass performance from Jokic, because it has the offensive firepower and the breadth of individual quality on defense to win by a clear margin.
Hoping for a superstar like Edwards to underperform or for a clearly very capable player like Towns to play poorly or for the Timberwolves to brick a ton of wide-open shots again is just silly.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -2.5 at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
More Effort and Energy
Indiana lost Game 5 because it gave up too easily.
Missed layups demoralized the team, but the greatest cause of its demise in Game 5 was a lack of effort and energy.
Throughout the series, we've seen Indiana compete on the glass well. So there is no other explanation for their failure to do so in Game 5. The turnovers were also inexplicable.
The root cause of Indiana's failure in Game 5 was psychological.
Namely, the Pacers have trouble with taking their opponent seriously.
After winning the regular season series against Milwaukee, they failed to take the Bucks minus Giannis seriously in Game 1 of that series.
Repeatedly, they play down to their opponents' level.
I didn't play the Pacers in Game 5, because a blowout win in Game 4 had set them up to be complacent.
But now that they've been blown out and embarrassed, they are going to come back strong.
Looking aside from this psychology factor, we saw a similar concatenation of events in the last series when Indiana, late in its series against the Bucks, lost big on the road before coming back home and winning big.
The Pacers have, in this series, thrived at home, winning Game 3 only by five because the Knicks shot well beyond themselves from behind the arc, Donte DiVincenzo played incredibly well, and the Pacers' bench underperformed significantly.
Indiana won Game 4 in blowout fashion, though, for reasons that are more sustainable.
The Pacers, in Game 4, outperformed the Knicks from behind the arc – their home three-point shooting percentage is indeed excellent on the season.
Their breadth of scoring talent won out, overall, whereas the Knicks miss depth and scorers, especially with OG Anunoby out.
Guards
It is well-known, statistically, that Andrew Nembhard can't guard Jalen Brunson – although the Pacers can evidently win when he does spend time guarding Brunson.
Aaron Nesmith with his length and T.J. McConnell, however, do a good job of limiting Brunson's field goal efficiency when either one operates as his primary defender.
Because I know this and everybody knows this, we should expect Indiana's head coach to follow common sense and defend Brunson accordingly, although Indiana will still win significantly even if Brunson goes off.
Whereas the Knicks lack consistent double-digit scorers, the Pacers have Pascal Siakam and a Haliburton who reliably does a great job of bouncing back from an overly passive performance.
Myles Turner is too tough for the less mobile Isaiah Hartenstein to account for on the perimeter.
Nembhard is a helpful weapon from deep, and Obi Toppin and McConnell repeatedly score double digits off the bench.
Indiana, in sum, has too much firepower especially when it's focused at home, and we saw in Game 4 when it held the Knicks to 89 points that it can defend well against this shorthanded group.
Bonus Consideration
I want to be clear that I am not relying on this potential factor, but it is a potential factor that would be significant.
I believe that New York might be less motivated for Game 6.
The Knicks know that Game 7 would be in their venue, where the Pacers are 0-3 in this series.
They know that they are short-handed, too.
It seems very possible to me that they refuse to tire themselves out in Game 6 and that they reserve their efforts for Game 7.
If they thus lack motivation, then the Pacers would win by 30 points instead of by 10-20 points.
Best Bet: Pacers -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
