NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
Tuesday, March 23, at 7 p.m. ET at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida
The Situation
One might think that the Magic look promising after their recent win against Brooklyn.
But that was a Brooklyn team that often underperforms, particularly on defense, against teams with a losing record.
In contrast to Brooklyn, Denver tends to punish heavier underdogs, especially after a straight-up loss.
Denver is 4-1 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss in which they were favored by three or more points.
Tonight, especially against a rather heavily underdogged squad, the Nuggets are primed to bounce back.
Expectation of a Nugget bounce-back effort is also supported by recent history: Denver is 6-0-2 ATS in its last eight games against Orlando.
Improved Defense Against A Bad Offense
Denver has been criticized for its defense at earlier points in the season.
But since its positive ATS run starting in the end of February, Denver almost regularly limits opponents to 105 points or fewer.
The Nuggets can prolong this trend against an Orlando offense that has failed to reach 100 points in four of its last five tries.
Part of Orlando’s problem is bad injury luck. Multiple guards — Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz — are unable to contribute due to being injured.
Terrence Ross, who is the team’s third-leading scorer, is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
Orlando might be trying to keep Ross as healthy as possible as the trade deadline approaches.
A lot of the Magic struggles simply come down to failing to make shots. Whereas Denver ranks third in shooting percentage, Orlando ranks last in the category.
Ball-Screen Defense
One area in which the Nugget defense is strong is in defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Against this play type, the Nuggets allow the second-fewest PPP (points per possession).
Part of Denver’s strength in this area is explainable by the uptick in minutes that Facundo Campazzo has received.
Campazzo is a notoriously feisty defender who will use his peskiness to get a lot of steals.
He is also a strong ball-screen defender. Regular starters like Jamal Murray mirror Campazzo’s ability to limit opposing PPP in the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Having multiple guards who excel at defending this type of play is crucial against a Magic offense that runs this type of play with the sixth-highest frequency, although injuries to Magic guards severely limit their efficiency off ball-screen actions.
Nugget Offense vs. Magic Defense
As a result of its bad offense, Orlando has been losing games even when its defense enjoys a stellar performance.
Orlando’s noteworthy defensive efforts, though, have come against teams that regularly fail to score a lot of points.
Against teams that do not rank towards the bottom in points per game, teams like Atlanta, the Magic are regularly giving up well over 110 and sometimes over 120 points.
One area where the Magic are especially vulnerable is in their perimeter defense. They allow many open three-point attempts and they allow the fourth-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
Bad perimeter defense is an issue against a Nugget offense that owns the fifth-highest three-point percentage.
With three-point shooting, Denver can at least approach 120 points while the Magic struggle to reach 100.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Missing Stars
The spread is what it is because the Lakers are missing their two stars, Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
Both easily lead the team in scoring — James with 25.4 points per game and Davis with 22.5 points per game.
Dennis Schroder is L.A.’s next-highest scorer with 15 points per game. So the absence of James and Davis creates a significant void in offensive production.
So without both players, the Lakers have yet to reach 100 points in two tries as opposing defenses are performing well above their average against the Lakers.
LeBron was actually one of the more reliable three-point shooters on a team that lacks quality three-point shooters.
L.A. ranks 23rd in three-point percentage and has lately performed worse in this department.
Without James or Davis, opposing defenses have a lot less to worry about inside the arc. So they can focus more on perimeter defense.
Even against a bad perimeter defense — and perimeter defense does constitute the main weakness of New Orleans’ defense — the Lakers lack the firepower to take advantage of open three-point attempts.
Rim Protection
AD had provided the Lakers with high-quality rim protection that almost sufficed to make him Defensive Player of the Year last year.
Lessened rim protection is something that the Pelicans want to take advantage of with big men like Zion and drivers like Brandon Ingram.
Both Zion and Ingram help explain why the Pelicans attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket, a space that they will gladly live in without having to encounter Davis.
Parlay Verdict
Orlando’s regularly feeble offense clashes with an improved Nugget defense whose ball-screen coverage will suffocate what Orlando most likes to do offensively, although Orlando’s offensive potential is limited by its many injuries.
Defensively, the Magic face a test that doesn’t compare in quality to the offenses that they have been able to limit.
Especially Denver’s three-point shooting will hurt Orlando.
Oddsmakers struggle to account for how bad the Lakers are without their two star players.
Besides being easier to guard, the Lakers are easier to attack inside. So guys like Zion and Ingram should have a field day.
Best Bet: Parlay Nuggets -7.5 at -108 & Pelicans -6.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
Tuesday, March 23, at 7 p.m. ET at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida
The Situation
One might think that the Magic look promising after their recent win against Brooklyn.
But that was a Brooklyn team that often underperforms, particularly on defense, against teams with a losing record.
In contrast to Brooklyn, Denver tends to punish heavier underdogs, especially after a straight-up loss.
Denver is 4-1 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss in which they were favored by three or more points.
Tonight, especially against a rather heavily underdogged squad, the Nuggets are primed to bounce back.
Expectation of a Nugget bounce-back effort is also supported by recent history: Denver is 6-0-2 ATS in its last eight games against Orlando.
Improved Defense Against A Bad Offense
Denver has been criticized for its defense at earlier points in the season.
But since its positive ATS run starting in the end of February, Denver almost regularly limits opponents to 105 points or fewer.
The Nuggets can prolong this trend against an Orlando offense that has failed to reach 100 points in four of its last five tries.
Part of Orlando’s problem is bad injury luck. Multiple guards — Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz — are unable to contribute due to being injured.
Terrence Ross, who is the team’s third-leading scorer, is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
Orlando might be trying to keep Ross as healthy as possible as the trade deadline approaches.
A lot of the Magic struggles simply come down to failing to make shots. Whereas Denver ranks third in shooting percentage, Orlando ranks last in the category.
Ball-Screen Defense
One area in which the Nugget defense is strong is in defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Against this play type, the Nuggets allow the second-fewest PPP (points per possession).
Part of Denver’s strength in this area is explainable by the uptick in minutes that Facundo Campazzo has received.
Campazzo is a notoriously feisty defender who will use his peskiness to get a lot of steals.
He is also a strong ball-screen defender. Regular starters like Jamal Murray mirror Campazzo’s ability to limit opposing PPP in the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler.
Having multiple guards who excel at defending this type of play is crucial against a Magic offense that runs this type of play with the sixth-highest frequency, although injuries to Magic guards severely limit their efficiency off ball-screen actions.
Nugget Offense vs. Magic Defense
As a result of its bad offense, Orlando has been losing games even when its defense enjoys a stellar performance.
Orlando’s noteworthy defensive efforts, though, have come against teams that regularly fail to score a lot of points.
Against teams that do not rank towards the bottom in points per game, teams like Atlanta, the Magic are regularly giving up well over 110 and sometimes over 120 points.
One area where the Magic are especially vulnerable is in their perimeter defense. They allow many open three-point attempts and they allow the fourth-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
Bad perimeter defense is an issue against a Nugget offense that owns the fifth-highest three-point percentage.
With three-point shooting, Denver can at least approach 120 points while the Magic struggle to reach 100.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Missing Stars
The spread is what it is because the Lakers are missing their two stars, Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
Both easily lead the team in scoring — James with 25.4 points per game and Davis with 22.5 points per game.
Dennis Schroder is L.A.’s next-highest scorer with 15 points per game. So the absence of James and Davis creates a significant void in offensive production.
So without both players, the Lakers have yet to reach 100 points in two tries as opposing defenses are performing well above their average against the Lakers.
LeBron was actually one of the more reliable three-point shooters on a team that lacks quality three-point shooters.
L.A. ranks 23rd in three-point percentage and has lately performed worse in this department.
Without James or Davis, opposing defenses have a lot less to worry about inside the arc. So they can focus more on perimeter defense.
Even against a bad perimeter defense — and perimeter defense does constitute the main weakness of New Orleans’ defense — the Lakers lack the firepower to take advantage of open three-point attempts.
Rim Protection
AD had provided the Lakers with high-quality rim protection that almost sufficed to make him Defensive Player of the Year last year.
Lessened rim protection is something that the Pelicans want to take advantage of with big men like Zion and drivers like Brandon Ingram.
Both Zion and Ingram help explain why the Pelicans attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket, a space that they will gladly live in without having to encounter Davis.
Parlay Verdict
Orlando’s regularly feeble offense clashes with an improved Nugget defense whose ball-screen coverage will suffocate what Orlando most likes to do offensively, although Orlando’s offensive potential is limited by its many injuries.
Defensively, the Magic face a test that doesn’t compare in quality to the offenses that they have been able to limit.
Especially Denver’s three-point shooting will hurt Orlando.
Oddsmakers struggle to account for how bad the Lakers are without their two star players.
Besides being easier to guard, the Lakers are easier to attack inside. So guys like Zion and Ingram should have a field day.
Best Bet: Parlay Nuggets -7.5 at -108 & Pelicans -6.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
