Long time reader of this forum, so going to try to add something to it.
November 1st (odds are in decimals)
Champions League (games are at 6.45am Sydney time, so ignoring lineups but can only guess what may happen):
Basel - PSG under 2.5 @ 2.10
PSG are equal 1st with Arsenal in the group and 6 points ahead of Basel. They beat them 3-0 at home and are likely to win again but the odds are too short. Basel will look to play it tight at home so as not to concede early, and with PSG having a tough game at home to Rennes on Sunday, then this game is not a priority for them. Doubt that PSG concede here but also don't believe that they will win by the same margin as they did in the away game.
Ludogorets - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.50
Similar scenario to the above as Ludogorets have one point in the group and Arsenal are 6 points clear of them. Arsenal beat them 6-0 at home, and except some complacency from Arsenal who have a big derby with Tottenham on the weekend, so it will be interesting to see who plays for them in this game. Would not be surprised that Wenger keeps some of his attackers at home for this game, in order to rest them up for the Spurs clash. They have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 9 games in all competitions, so their defence is very good, and Wenger usually keeps this unchanged. A number of factors suggest this could be a low scoring game at a good price.
Besiktas - Napoli under 2.5 @ 2.00
Besiktas are second in the group, one point behind Napoli. A win for either side and it will go a long way to progress to the next stage. However believe that each team will be happy with a point and see this as a low scoing game. Even though there have have been goals in their previous CL games (Besiktas drew 1-1 away to Benfica and drew 1-1 at home to Dynamo Kiev, before losing 3-2 away to Napoli. Napoli won 2-1 at Dynamo Kiev and 4-2 at home to Benfica), it is the look ahead games to the weekend which also will have a bearing on how they play here. Besiktas (2nd) are at home to 11th placed Trabonzspor on the weekend, so they will be up for this in a pretty hostile environment, while Napoli are 5th in the Serie A and have a big game at home to 4th placed Lazio on Saturday. Under normal circumstances I would side with the over but with both teams pretty evenly matched with Besiktas at home, and Napoli unlikely to go too hard in this game, then can see this being a low scoring game.
Benfica -1.5 @ 2.75
Benfica are 3rd and two points behind Napoli in the group, and will want a win here if they wish to progress. They beat Dynamo Kiev 2-0 a couple of weeks ago and now play at them at home. DK drew 1-1 away to Besiktas for their only point in the group but they are not in the same class as Benfica. Though Benfica have a top of the table clash with Porto on the weekend, this game is much more important for them, as they have a 5 point lead over Porto and can afford a loss there.
Borussia Moechengladbach - Celtic under 2.5 @ 2.25
BM will look to this as a must win game with Barcelona and Man City in their group. They are 3rd in the group, one point behind Man City, who are at home to Barcelona, so a win over Celtic will have them well placed in the group. BM beat Celtic 2-0 in Scotland and looked good in doing so. They have a tough game away to Hertha Berlin on the weekend, so some concern that they may be looking at this but can see them winning 1-0 or 2-0 here. Both teams have been good defensively in their respective domestic leagues. Celtic did lose 7-0 away to Barcelona so they will be looking to not repeat this
Man City - Barcelona under 2.5 @ 2.50
Man City lost 4-0 at Barcelona but this game should be much closer. Man City have a home game with Boro on the weekend so they can concentrate on this game especially with Borussia Moechengladbach just behind them in the group. Barcelona will not be as focused on this game since they are 5 points clear in this group, and have a tough away game to Sevilla to worry about. Man City's managers Guardiola will have a plan to neutralise Barca's front three and could see a more defensive approach from them, as he knows if they concede an early goal, it will be hard for them to overcome. Barcelona had some problems in their only away game in the CL, scoring two second half goals in the win at Borussia Moechengladbach, so can't see them being as dominant here. Very good value on the under here.
Atletico Madrid -2.5 @ 2.05
AM are a very good side and have all three of their CL games. They did what they have to do and beat Rostov 1-0 in Russia but at home, they are a different beast. They have been scoring goals in the Primera Liga at home recently, beating Malaga 4-2, Granada 7-1, Deportivo 1-0 and Sporting Gijon 5-0 so Rostov are likely to receive a hiding. Bayern beat them 5-0 at home in a CL game so another similar result is possible. The only concern is that AM have a tough away game to Real Sociedad but their form at home is hard to go past.
PSV - Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.50
Another team who won well at home against their opponents and have a tough upcoming domestic game. Bayern Munich beat PSV 4-1 and will be confident going into this game of winning again. They have 6 points in the group while PSV are third with just a point, and BM have a game against 3rd placed Hoffenheim coming up on the weekend. PSV lost 1-0 at home to Atletico Madrid so they will make it tough for the Germans, while BM lost 1-0 at Atletico in their only away game in the CL. Playing this game in Holland should mean that this game will not be lopsided and BM may rest some players for their game against Hoffenheim so looking at the lineups before the game will show much of their mindset.
Hope some of this helps
November 1st (odds are in decimals)
Champions League (games are at 6.45am Sydney time, so ignoring lineups but can only guess what may happen):
Basel - PSG under 2.5 @ 2.10
PSG are equal 1st with Arsenal in the group and 6 points ahead of Basel. They beat them 3-0 at home and are likely to win again but the odds are too short. Basel will look to play it tight at home so as not to concede early, and with PSG having a tough game at home to Rennes on Sunday, then this game is not a priority for them. Doubt that PSG concede here but also don't believe that they will win by the same margin as they did in the away game.
Ludogorets - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.50
Similar scenario to the above as Ludogorets have one point in the group and Arsenal are 6 points clear of them. Arsenal beat them 6-0 at home, and except some complacency from Arsenal who have a big derby with Tottenham on the weekend, so it will be interesting to see who plays for them in this game. Would not be surprised that Wenger keeps some of his attackers at home for this game, in order to rest them up for the Spurs clash. They have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 9 games in all competitions, so their defence is very good, and Wenger usually keeps this unchanged. A number of factors suggest this could be a low scoring game at a good price.
Besiktas - Napoli under 2.5 @ 2.00
Besiktas are second in the group, one point behind Napoli. A win for either side and it will go a long way to progress to the next stage. However believe that each team will be happy with a point and see this as a low scoing game. Even though there have have been goals in their previous CL games (Besiktas drew 1-1 away to Benfica and drew 1-1 at home to Dynamo Kiev, before losing 3-2 away to Napoli. Napoli won 2-1 at Dynamo Kiev and 4-2 at home to Benfica), it is the look ahead games to the weekend which also will have a bearing on how they play here. Besiktas (2nd) are at home to 11th placed Trabonzspor on the weekend, so they will be up for this in a pretty hostile environment, while Napoli are 5th in the Serie A and have a big game at home to 4th placed Lazio on Saturday. Under normal circumstances I would side with the over but with both teams pretty evenly matched with Besiktas at home, and Napoli unlikely to go too hard in this game, then can see this being a low scoring game.
Benfica -1.5 @ 2.75
Benfica are 3rd and two points behind Napoli in the group, and will want a win here if they wish to progress. They beat Dynamo Kiev 2-0 a couple of weeks ago and now play at them at home. DK drew 1-1 away to Besiktas for their only point in the group but they are not in the same class as Benfica. Though Benfica have a top of the table clash with Porto on the weekend, this game is much more important for them, as they have a 5 point lead over Porto and can afford a loss there.
Borussia Moechengladbach - Celtic under 2.5 @ 2.25
BM will look to this as a must win game with Barcelona and Man City in their group. They are 3rd in the group, one point behind Man City, who are at home to Barcelona, so a win over Celtic will have them well placed in the group. BM beat Celtic 2-0 in Scotland and looked good in doing so. They have a tough game away to Hertha Berlin on the weekend, so some concern that they may be looking at this but can see them winning 1-0 or 2-0 here. Both teams have been good defensively in their respective domestic leagues. Celtic did lose 7-0 away to Barcelona so they will be looking to not repeat this
Man City - Barcelona under 2.5 @ 2.50
Man City lost 4-0 at Barcelona but this game should be much closer. Man City have a home game with Boro on the weekend so they can concentrate on this game especially with Borussia Moechengladbach just behind them in the group. Barcelona will not be as focused on this game since they are 5 points clear in this group, and have a tough away game to Sevilla to worry about. Man City's managers Guardiola will have a plan to neutralise Barca's front three and could see a more defensive approach from them, as he knows if they concede an early goal, it will be hard for them to overcome. Barcelona had some problems in their only away game in the CL, scoring two second half goals in the win at Borussia Moechengladbach, so can't see them being as dominant here. Very good value on the under here.
Atletico Madrid -2.5 @ 2.05
AM are a very good side and have all three of their CL games. They did what they have to do and beat Rostov 1-0 in Russia but at home, they are a different beast. They have been scoring goals in the Primera Liga at home recently, beating Malaga 4-2, Granada 7-1, Deportivo 1-0 and Sporting Gijon 5-0 so Rostov are likely to receive a hiding. Bayern beat them 5-0 at home in a CL game so another similar result is possible. The only concern is that AM have a tough away game to Real Sociedad but their form at home is hard to go past.
PSV - Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.50
Another team who won well at home against their opponents and have a tough upcoming domestic game. Bayern Munich beat PSV 4-1 and will be confident going into this game of winning again. They have 6 points in the group while PSV are third with just a point, and BM have a game against 3rd placed Hoffenheim coming up on the weekend. PSV lost 1-0 at home to Atletico Madrid so they will make it tough for the Germans, while BM lost 1-0 at Atletico in their only away game in the CL. Playing this game in Holland should mean that this game will not be lopsided and BM may rest some players for their game against Hoffenheim so looking at the lineups before the game will show much of their mindset.
Hope some of this helps
