November picks

blackcrow

Pretty much a regular
Long time reader of this forum, so going to try to add something to it.

November 1st (odds are in decimals)

Champions League (games are at 6.45am Sydney time, so ignoring lineups but can only guess what may happen):

Basel - PSG under 2.5 @ 2.10

PSG are equal 1st with Arsenal in the group and 6 points ahead of Basel. They beat them 3-0 at home and are likely to win again but the odds are too short. Basel will look to play it tight at home so as not to concede early, and with PSG having a tough game at home to Rennes on Sunday, then this game is not a priority for them. Doubt that PSG concede here but also don't believe that they will win by the same margin as they did in the away game.

Ludogorets - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.50
Similar scenario to the above as Ludogorets have one point in the group and Arsenal are 6 points clear of them. Arsenal beat them 6-0 at home, and except some complacency from Arsenal who have a big derby with Tottenham on the weekend, so it will be interesting to see who plays for them in this game. Would not be surprised that Wenger keeps some of his attackers at home for this game, in order to rest them up for the Spurs clash. They have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 9 games in all competitions, so their defence is very good, and Wenger usually keeps this unchanged. A number of factors suggest this could be a low scoring game at a good price.

Besiktas - Napoli under 2.5 @ 2.00
Besiktas are second in the group, one point behind Napoli. A win for either side and it will go a long way to progress to the next stage. However believe that each team will be happy with a point and see this as a low scoing game. Even though there have have been goals in their previous CL games (Besiktas drew 1-1 away to Benfica and drew 1-1 at home to Dynamo Kiev, before losing 3-2 away to Napoli. Napoli won 2-1 at Dynamo Kiev and 4-2 at home to Benfica), it is the look ahead games to the weekend which also will have a bearing on how they play here. Besiktas (2nd) are at home to 11th placed Trabonzspor on the weekend, so they will be up for this in a pretty hostile environment, while Napoli are 5th in the Serie A and have a big game at home to 4th placed Lazio on Saturday. Under normal circumstances I would side with the over but with both teams pretty evenly matched with Besiktas at home, and Napoli unlikely to go too hard in this game, then can see this being a low scoring game.

Benfica -1.5 @ 2.75
Benfica are 3rd and two points behind Napoli in the group, and will want a win here if they wish to progress. They beat Dynamo Kiev 2-0 a couple of weeks ago and now play at them at home. DK drew 1-1 away to Besiktas for their only point in the group but they are not in the same class as Benfica. Though Benfica have a top of the table clash with Porto on the weekend, this game is much more important for them, as they have a 5 point lead over Porto and can afford a loss there.

Borussia Moechengladbach - Celtic under 2.5 @ 2.25
BM will look to this as a must win game with Barcelona and Man City in their group. They are 3rd in the group, one point behind Man City, who are at home to Barcelona, so a win over Celtic will have them well placed in the group. BM beat Celtic 2-0 in Scotland and looked good in doing so. They have a tough game away to Hertha Berlin on the weekend, so some concern that they may be looking at this but can see them winning 1-0 or 2-0 here. Both teams have been good defensively in their respective domestic leagues. Celtic did lose 7-0 away to Barcelona so they will be looking to not repeat this

Man City - Barcelona under 2.5 @ 2.50
Man City lost 4-0 at Barcelona but this game should be much closer. Man City have a home game with Boro on the weekend so they can concentrate on this game especially with Borussia Moechengladbach just behind them in the group. Barcelona will not be as focused on this game since they are 5 points clear in this group, and have a tough away game to Sevilla to worry about. Man City's managers Guardiola will have a plan to neutralise Barca's front three and could see a more defensive approach from them, as he knows if they concede an early goal, it will be hard for them to overcome. Barcelona had some problems in their only away game in the CL, scoring two second half goals in the win at Borussia Moechengladbach, so can't see them being as dominant here. Very good value on the under here.

Atletico Madrid -2.5 @ 2.05
AM are a very good side and have all three of their CL games. They did what they have to do and beat Rostov 1-0 in Russia but at home, they are a different beast. They have been scoring goals in the Primera Liga at home recently, beating Malaga 4-2, Granada 7-1, Deportivo 1-0 and Sporting Gijon 5-0 so Rostov are likely to receive a hiding. Bayern beat them 5-0 at home in a CL game so another similar result is possible. The only concern is that AM have a tough away game to Real Sociedad but their form at home is hard to go past.

PSV - Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.50
Another team who won well at home against their opponents and have a tough upcoming domestic game. Bayern Munich beat PSV 4-1 and will be confident going into this game of winning again. They have 6 points in the group while PSV are third with just a point, and BM have a game against 3rd placed Hoffenheim coming up on the weekend. PSV lost 1-0 at home to Atletico Madrid so they will make it tough for the Germans, while BM lost 1-0 at Atletico in their only away game in the CL. Playing this game in Holland should mean that this game will not be lopsided and BM may rest some players for their game against Hoffenheim so looking at the lineups before the game will show much of their mindset.

Hope some of this helps
 
Basel - PSG under 2.5 @ 2.10
Ludogorets - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.50

Besiktas - Napoli under 2.5 @ 2.00
Benfica -1.5 @ 2.75
Borussia Moechengladbach - Celtic under 2.5 @ 2.25
Man City - Barcelona under 2.5 @ 2.50
Atletico Madrid -2.5 @ 2.05
PSV - Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.50

Didn't play out the way i expected
 
November 2nd

Monaco v CSKA Moscow over 2.5 @ 2.04
Pretty open group with both teams still in the hunt to progress. Both teams have scored and conceded in each of their three CL games, so expect the same to continue.

Tottenham @ 2.05
Really like this Spurs side and how they play. While they have a big game against Arsenal,

Real Madrid -3.5 @ 2.75
RM are the better side there is no doubt about that. Expect them to beat up Legia Warsaw, similar to the 5-1 scoreline like they did at home. Interesting about that game was that Ronaldo did not score in that game. He often likes to score against lesser sides and missing out there would have irked him. Would not be surprised that he gives a bit more effort to get on the scoresheet.

Juventus - Lyon under 2.5 @ 2.14
Juve are pretty dominant at home and should win but odds are too short. They do come into this game with a couple of key players out, which will lead to a restructure. They face a Lyon side that has not scored in 5 of their last 6 matches in all competitions, and doubt they do so here. Juve beat them 1-0 and can see something similar here
 
November 2nd

Monaco v CSKA Moscow over 2.5 @ 2.04

Tottenham @ 2.05


Real Madrid -3.5 @ 2.75

Juventus - Lyon under 2.5 @ 2.14
 
November 3rd

Like the overs .....

Astana - Olympiakos over 2.5 @ 2.25
Apoel Nicosia - Young Boys over 2.5 @ 1.95
Fenerbahce - Man Utd over 2.5 @ 2.15
Zorya - Feyenoord over 2.5 @ 2.10

Ajax - Celta Vigo over 2.5 @ 1.95
Panathinaikos - Standard Liege over 2.5 @ 2.00
Braga - Konyaspor over 2.5 @ 2.07
Shaktar Donetsk @ 2.00
Nice @ 1.90
Southampton - Inter over 2.5 @ 2.05
Sparta Prague - Hapoel Beer Sheva over 2.5 @ 2.14
Zurich - Steaua Bucahrest over 2.5 @ 2.23
 
Astana - Olympiakos over 2.5 @ 2.25
Apoel Nicosia - Young Boys over 2.5 @ 1.95
Fenerbahce - Man Utd over 2.5 @ 2.15
Zorya - Feyenoord over 2.5 @ 2.10

Ajax - Celta Vigo over 2.5 @ 1.95
Panathinaikos - Standard Liege over 2.5 @ 2.00

Braga - Konyaspor over 2.5 @ 2.07
Shaktar Donetsk @ 2.00
Nice @ 1.90
Southampton - Inter over 2.5 @ 2.05
Sparta Prague - Hapoel Beer Sheva over 2.5 @ 2.14
Zurich - Steaua Bucahrest over 2.5 @ 2.23
 
November 4th

Spain: Malaga @ 1.72
England Championship: Brentford - Fulham under 2.5 @ 2.10
Germany: Hertha Berlin @ 2.45
France: Montpellier - Marseille over 2.5 @ 2.05
Italy Serie B: Brescia - Cesena over 2.5 @ 2.05
Portugal:Guimaraes - Nacional over 2.5 @ 1.90
 
Malaga @ 1.72
Brentford - Fulham under 2.5 @ 2.10
Hertha Berlin @ 2.45
Montpellier - Marseille over 2.5 @ 2.05
Brescia - Cesena over 2.5 @ 2.05
Guimaraes - Nacional over 2.5 @ 1.90

Clean sweep!!!!
 
Thanks KJ :shake:

November 5th:

England Premier League:
Bournemouth - Sunderland under 2.5 @ 2.06
Burnley - Crystal Palace over 2.5 @ 2.25
West Ham - Stoke under 2.5 @ 2.15


England Championship
Aston Villa - Blackburn over 2.5 @ 2.07
Notts Forest - QPR over 2.5 @ 1.90


Spain
Osasuna - Alaves over 2.5 @ 2.30
 
November 5th:

Bournemouth - Sunderland under 2.5 @ 2.06
Burnley - Crystal Palace over 2.5 @ 2.25
West Ham - Stoke under 2.5 @ 2.15
Aston Villa - Blackburn over 2.5 @ 2.07
Notts Forest - QPR over 2.5 @ 1.90
Osasuna - Alaves over 2.5 @ 2.30
 
November 6th

Arsenal - Tottenham under 2.5 @ 2.12
Real Madrid - Leganes under 3.5 @ 2.55

Chievo - Juventus over 2.5 @ 2.28
Palermo - AC Milan over 2.5 @ 1.95
Leicester - West Brom over 2.5 @ 2.15
Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao over 2.5 2.28
Nice @ 2.30
 
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November 6th

Arsenal - Tottenham under 2.5 @ 2.12
Real Madrid - Leganes under 3.5 @ 2.55


Chievo - Juventus over 2.5 @ 2.28
Palermo - AC Milan over 2.5 @ 1.95
Leicester - West Brom over 2.5 @ 2.15

Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao over 2.5 2.28
Nice @ 2.30
 
November 11th

Armenia - Montenegro over 2.5 @ 2.25
Denmark - Kazakhstan under 2.5 @ 2.00
France - Sweden under 2.5 @ 2.00
Romania - Poland over 2.5 @ 2.45
England - Scotland over 2.5 @ 2.00
 
November 11th

Armenia - Montenegro over 2.5 @ 2.25
Denmark - Kazakhstan under 2.5 @ 2.00
France - Sweden under 2.5 @ 2.00

Romania - Poland over 2.5 @ 2.45
England - Scotland over 2.5 @ 2.00
 
November 12th

Austria - Ireland over 2.5 @ 2.28
Croatia - Iceland over 2.5 @ 1.95
Wales - Serbia over 2.5 @ 2.18
Italy -3.5 @ 2.28
Albania - Israel over 2.5 @ 2.43

 
November 12th

Austria - Ireland over 2.5 @ 2.28
Croatia - Iceland over 2.5 @ 1.95

Wales - Serbia over 2.5 @ 2.18
Italy -3.5 @ 2.28
Albania - Israel over 2.5 @ 2.43
 
November 13th

Bulgaria - Belarus over 2.5 @ 2.35
Holland -2.5 @ 1.95
Greece - Bosnia-Hercegovina over 2.5 @ 2.45

MTD: 30-23 (+11.08) (i think that's right if i have added everything up accurately)
 
November 13th

Bulgaria - Belarus over 2.5 @ 2.35
Holland -2.5 @ 1.95
Greece - Bosnia-Hercegovina over 2.5 @ 2.45

MTD: 30-26 (+8.08)
 
November 15th

Japan -1.5 @ 2.02
South Korea - Uzbekistan over 2.5 @ 2.30
China - Qatar over 2.5 @ 2.38
Iran -1.5 @ 2.48
Australia -2.5 @ 2.55
UAE - Iraq over 2.5 @ 2.38
 
After this round, it marks the half way point of the Asian qualifiers. They did not play again until March next year, so teams do not want to be dwelling about their positions. The better teams will look to bridge the gap with the teams below them, while those below, know they cannot afford to draw and lose here, as they will be further off the pace, so like them to attack, and hence their is the possibility of goals in these games.
 
BOL crow, thought about delving into the Asian stuff but it may be just above my pay grade. Your reasoning makes sense, get some goals.
 
November 15th

Japan -1.5 @ 2.02
South Korea - Uzbekistan over 2.5 @ 2.30
China - Qatar over 2.5 @ 2.38
Iran -1.5 @ 2.48

Australia -2.5 @ 2.55 could not believe this result. Very bad performance
UAE - Iraq over 2.5 @ 2.38

Pretty poor results the last couple of days.

MTD: 31-31 (+3.46)
 
November 18th

Melbourne City @ 2.25

Brighton - Aston Villa over 2.5 @ 2.20

Leipzig @ 3.15
Nurnberg - Wuerzburger over 2.5 @ 1.93

Real Betis - Las Palmas over 2.5 @ 1.89
Almeria - Elche over 2.5 @ 2.10

 
November 18th

Melbourne City @ 2.25 Late equaliser takes away the win
Brighton - Aston Villa over 2.5 @ 2.20 Score twice in the first half and both teams could not find another goal
Leipzig @ 3.15
Nurnberg - Wuerzburger over 2.5 @ 1.93
Real Betis - Las Palmas over 2.5 @ 1.83 Betis score twice in the first half, but could not get a third
Almeria - Elche over 2.5 @ 2.10

Could have been a sweep

MTD: 34-34 (+5.64)
 
November 19th

Brisbane @ 2.80

Arsenal @ 3.05

Man City -1.5 @ 2.43
Everton -1.5 @ 2.50
Liverpool @ 2.40
Sunderland - Hull over 2.5 @ 2.20
Watford - Leicester over 2.5 @ 2.10

Birmingham - Bristol City over 2.5 @ 2.00
Huddersfield @ 2.75
Fulham - Sheff Wed over 2.5 @ 1.95
Preston @ 2.50
QPR - Norwich over 2.5 @ 1.95
 
November 19th

Brisbane @ 2.80
Arsenal @ 3.05
Man City -1.5 @ 2.43
Everton -1.5 @ 2.50

Liverpool @ 2.40
Sunderland - Hull over 2.5 @ 2.20
Watford - Leicester over 2.5 @ 2.10

Birmingham - Bristol City over 2.5 @ 2.00
Huddersfield @ 2.75
Fulham - Sheff Wed over 2.5 @ 1.95

Preston @ 2.50
QPR - Norwich over 2.5 @ 1.95

Bad day

MTD: 37-43 (-0.11)
 
November 20th

Sampdoria - Sassuolo over 2.5 @ 1.90
Leeds - Newcastle over 2.5 @ 2.04
Bologna - Palermo over 2.5 @ 2.05
Crotone - Torino over 2.5 @ 1.80
Fiorentina @ 2.10
Guingamp - Bordeaux over 2.5 @ 2.16
Osijek @ 2.25
Hoffenheim -1.5 @ 2.18
Middlesbrough - Chelsea under 2.5 @ 1.90
Rijeka -1.5 @ 2.67
Sporting Gijon - Real Sociedad over 2.5 @.20
Athletic Bilbao - Villareal over 2.5 @ 2.28

 
November 20th

Sampdoria - Sassuolo over 2.5 @ 1.90
Leeds - Newcastle over 2.5 @ 2.04
Bologna - Palermo over 2.5 @ 2.05
Crotone - Torino over 2.5 @ 1.80
Fiorentina @ 2.10
Guingamp - Bordeaux over 2.5 @ 2.16
Osijek @ 2.25
Hoffenheim -1.5 @ 2.18
Middlesbrough - Chelsea under 2.5 @ 1.90
Rijeka -1.5 @ 2.67
Sporting Gijon - Real Sociedad over 2.5 @ 2.20
Athletic Bilbao - Villareal over 2.5 @ 2.28

MTD: 43-49 (+0.19)

 
November 22nd

Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.90
Monaco - Tottenham over 2.5 @ 2.02
Borussia Dortmund -3.5 @ 2.95
Sporting - Real Madrid over 3.5 @ 2.30
Porto @ 2.20
Leicester -1.5 @ 2.80
Lyon -1.5 @ 2.55
Sevilla - Juventus over 2.5 @ 2.35
 
November 22nd

Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.90
Monaco - Tottenham over 2.5 @ 2.02
Borussia Dortmund -3.5 @ 2.95

Sporting - Real Madrid over 3.5 @ 2.30
Porto @ 2.20
Leicester -1.5 @ 2.80
Lyon -1.5 @ 2.55

Sevilla - Juventus over 2.5 @ 2.35

Not much luck here. A goal in (my favour) each of the losing games could have seen a big night for me

MTD: 46-54 (-0.49)
 
November 23rd

Atletico Madrid - PSV under 2.5 @ 2.00
Arsenal - PSG under 2.5 @ 1.98
Ludogorets - Basel over 2.5 @ 1.98
Besiktas - Benfica over 2.5 @ 2.05
 
November 23rd

Atletico Madrid - PSV under 2.5 @ 2.00
Arsenal - PSG under 2.5 @ 1.98
Ludogorets - Basel over 2.5 @ 1.98

Besiktas - Benfica over 2.5 @ 2.05

MTD: 48-56 (-0.44)
 
November 23rd

Perth @ 2.10


Nice @ 3.90
Inter Milan @ 2.35
Osmanlispor @ 3.00
Southampton @ 2.00
Villareal @ 1.87
 
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November 23rd

Perth @ 2.10
Nice @ 3.90
Inter Milan @ 2.35
Osmanlispor @ 3.00
Southampton @ 2.00
Villareal @ 1.87


Horrible slide of late
:hang:

MTD: 48-62 (-6.44)
 
November 24th

Germany: Leipzig @ 1.90
France Lique 1: Rennes - Toulouse over 2.5 @ 2.50
France Lique 2: Niort @ 2.10
France Lique 2: Troyes - Clermont over 2.5 @ 2.00
France Lique 2: Orleans - Valenciennes over 2.5 @ 2.20
Italy Serie B: Virtus Entella @ 2.50
 
November 24th

Germany: Leipzig @ 1.90
France Lique 1: Rennes - Toulouse over 2.5 @ 2.50
France Lique 2: Niort @ 2.10
France Lique 2: Troyes - Clermont over 2.5 @ 2.00
France Lique 2: Orleans - Valenciennes over 2.5 @ 2.20
Italy Serie B: Virtus Entella @ 2.50


MTD: 49-67 (-10.54)
 
November 26th

Hull - West Brom over 2.5 @ 2.35
Liverpool -2.5 @ 2.05
Swansea - Crystal Palace over 2.5 @ 1.85

Aston Villa - Cardiff over 2.5 @ 2.10
Brighton - Fulham over 2.5 @ 2.05
Newcastle -1.5 @ 1.95
Derby @ 2.10
Reading @ 2.45
 
Hull - West Brom over 2.5 @ 2.35
Liverpool -2.5 @ 2.05

Swansea - Crystal Palac
e over 2.5 @ 1.85
Aston Villa - Cardiff over 2.5 @ 2.10
Brighton - Fulham over 2.5 @ 2.05

Newcastle -1.5 @ 1.95
Derby @ 2.10
Reading @ 2.45

MTD: 54-70 (-7.99)
 
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