November NBA bets

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
Will try to post my thoughts and plays here, hoping to be in the green at the end of the regular season :)

Two plays for today:

Atlanta Hawks -7 - 2.00 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Detroit -7, 1.98 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Should be either 2 - 0 or 1 - 1 at the worst case.

Toronto off a home loss to the Cavs and lost to Denver both times last season. I think they will be focused tonight. Denver is a deep and decent team, but looks like a double digits win for the home team.

I don't like Kings rotation so far this season. Too many minutes for Koufos (and Tolliver) and not enough for Towns and Casspi. Collison is still out and can't trust Lawson. I think that Kings can really struggle against good teams this season and Hawks so far play good basketball...

Good luck everybody!!!
 
1 - 1 so far.

Two plays tonight:

Orlando -1.5, 1.94 odds - 9 units play - Pinnacle
Minnesota -4, 1.93 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

I hope Ibaka plays, but I like this bet regardless. Both teams won on the road last season between the two, but Orlando has a new coach and made more than a few changes - this team wants playoffs and they should be pretty decent home team I believe this season. But... still... this is more fading Kings play. I watched this team more than others so far this season and I can't say that I like what I seen so far. Wrong rotation, same problems as always...

As for the Minny play - I think that the line is where it should be, but I do believe that Minny should win this one and decided to take a chance on the 4 points line here. Both teams are pretty deep and pretty young and both have good coaches. Still... Denver strength was usually at home more than on the road and Minny in my opinion slightly more talented.
Again... the line is right more or less, so taking it as small units only... Heat check so to speak...
 
Thanks em! 1 - 1, but bigger bet won.

2 - 2 so far this season.

Two bets for now:

Wizards -2, 1.99 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle
Dallas +1.5, 2.00 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Will post thoughts later on...
 
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Wizards have a good team, despite of the fact that I'm not a big fan of their summer moves. 0 - 3 both SU and ATS for a reason (including a loss to the Hawks), but it's still early in a season and I doubt they are worse than the Hawks. Gortat and Dwight meet again and I do believe that Wizards have huge advantage in the back court that Hawks advantage in the front court is not enough to cover.
Wizards should be getting their first W soon without a doubt and home game against direct playoff competition is a great time to get it.

Another winless team are Dallas 2 - 1 SU and 3 - 0 ATS last season against the Blazers and still winless this season (0-4), but looked pretty decent in some of those games. They played only one game at home and from what I read, Dallas should play tonight with a sense of urgency.
Portland compete every night, but Lillard and Crabbe banged up (but both should play).
Not a play of the year, but Dallas in my opinion shouldn't be dogs in this one.
 
And again, 1 - 1 bigger play winning.

2W - 2L so far this season.

Memphis +3, 1.95 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Not a big fan of playing a line I don't understand, but will try it. If Memphis was PK or favorite, probably would have been bigger play.
Basically, regardless of Conley playing or not, both teams have same record, but Memphis has more experience and I like them slightly more as a team. Gasol should be able to play strong against Portland and they should be good enough on defense to slow Portland down.
 
Maybe, I seem to see a pattern here where you fade certain teams. I would be looking at Denver
 
tuck321 said:
Maybe, I seem to see a pattern here where you fade certain teams. I would be looking at Denver
Click to expand...
Actually I try to stay away from Portland games as this is a team that I clearly lost on games with them much more than won last season. Maybe if I will lose again tonight, I will make even bigger attempt to stay clear of their games or at least betting against them. The line is back to Memphis -1, which makes me more comfortable with my bet on them, but we will see...
 
McCollum and Parsons killed Memphis today. Parsons with 0 - 8 and 0 points together with 0 assists and 2 turnovers... The bet was mainly on Memphis dominating the paint and I was right, but Parsons killed Memphis spacing and had biggest minus in +/- column (-11) for a reason...
McCollum... was just amazing...
 
Will count the units on weekend, but around even (a bit less).

Two plays tonight:

Memphis -3, 1.91 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Sacramento -6, 1.91 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Hope to do writes up a bit later on...
 
Sacramento off a long trip, where they failed to win even one game till they visited Canada. Tonight they play the Hornets, that have yet to win this season. Kings get back Collison and good chance they without Tolliver tonight and that's good news for them. Hornets added Lance to the injury list and after winning the Kings for 6 straight games, I think that Kings motivation should be high.

Parsons was beyond terrible in his first game back, but he can't play that badly again and overall, Memphis doesn't look bad. Denver as always... deep, talented, but very inconsistent. Memphis, at home, off a home loss, as a short favorite, I like the line here, as well as the fact that Memphis won 5 straight against Denver, before dropping a game to them at home. Should keep them focused and they match up well here.
 
Portland -6.5, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle - again betting in Portland game, but it's again, more of a fade of the Kings, that are in a bad spot here (and a bad team at the moment). If losses, will probably avoid betting Portland games all together for few months at least.

Orlando +6 - 1.91 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle (and added 1.5 units on ML bet as well btw) - I think that Orlando got tons of problems, but still... they aren't that bad. Utah maybe without Hill and this is big for them. My line here is PK...

Charlotte -1, 1.95 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle - Just a strong believer that at home Charlotte shouldn't be PK against Toronto that are pretty mediocre... Not a very strong bet, but got some value...
 
Very bad night with 0-3 (((
Fourth quarter killed Orlando and Charlotte bets and I should stay away from Portland games, no matter who they play...
 
SA to win, 1.96 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Rockets won three days ago in SA. Now I expect a reverse...
 
Spurs -5, 1.91 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Going back to the well... Took Spurs when they visited Sacramento the first time and see no reason not to do it again. I don't like the way Kings are looking at the moment and I think that they made few mistakes this summer, especially with the HC position.

Thunder -2, 1.94 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

No love lost there... Thunder with 4 straight losses, Rockets have Portland at home on deck, should be interesting, but I feel that Thunder should be favorites by more than a bucket. -4 would have been more accurate imo.

Raps +6, 1.92 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

GSW been playing much better lately, but this is a challenge for them imo. Raps off a tough loss to the Cavs, but should be (again) focused tonight. Raps have the ability to exploit Dubs weak spots on defense... Maybe TT Over on Raps is the better option, but decided to take the points...

Denver -4.5, 1.96 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Teams have similar records, but I do rate Denver as the better team. 0 - 3 at home should change sooner or later and this spot is a very good spot to do so. Suns 1 - 5 road record on the other hand... makes perfect sense to me...
 
Detroit +7, 1.91 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Last year, Clips barely won both games against the Pistons and while they easily won at home earlier this season, I think that Detroit can really make it hard for the Clips. Well coached team with decent talent and Clips aren't as good as the record indicates imo...

Also took Memphis, Pacers and the Jazz tonight for small units...
 
Will do a count of units before the month is over (hopefully).

Memphis to win, 2.01 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Basically, we got two matches where teams meet B2B (the other one in MSG) and in both, dogs won. Today I expect the losing team in the first leg, to win the second leg. Memphis has a lot of injuries, but Heat without Dragic and Winslow... it's a tough blow. I believe that Memphis will score 90+ points tonight. Not sure it can be said about the Heat. Also like the TT Under on the Heat (92.5 points).
I like Charlotte to win tonight, but still not sure if I want to lay 6 points here...

I also like Detroit again and Charlotte - but not sure will take either one...
 
Finally got around to do the math :)

7W - 7L - 3V+8.6 units

4 - 0 on 8 units plays or higher and 0 - 4 on plays below 7 units, so glad I'm correct with the level of confidence of each bet. I probably should stay off the bets I'm not 100% sold on...
 
Wizards -5, 2.01 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Wizards really need this home win, especially home loss to the Spurs and playing Thunder and Spurs on the road after that. Some worries about Wizards chemistry, but you can double it when it comes to the Kings and with Kings off a road win and Wizards off a home loss... looks like a decent spot to back them...
 
Overall record for November:
8W - 7L - 3V+16.68 units

Will start December thread soon...
 
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