NCAAF Week 9 Parlay (+260): Notre Dame to Steamroll Syracuse
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at noon ET at JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse
Syracuse's Defensive Line Issues
Entering this season, Syracuse's defensive line already inspired concern.
Its top four and five of its top six defensive linemen departed, leaving a group that lacked a combination of depth and experience in terms of playing time.
Syracuse's problem of lacking proven good defensive linemen has been compounded by injuries.
Unfortunately for the Orange, Denis Jaquez and Terry Lockett, both defensive linemen, have suffered season-ending injuries.
Particularly the interior of Syracuse's defensive line has been viewed, since prior to the start of the season, with concern, and Lockett in particular was hoped to allay this concern.
Syracuse Just Played Clemson
The Orange are coming off two consecutive big games, one against NC State and, most recently, they faced another high-ranking ACC foe, Clemson.
Clemson's physicality in the trenches was overwhelming even as its pass attack struggled with uncertain quarterback play.
As a result of Clemson's offensive line strength, the Orange allowed the Tigers' top two running backs to combine for 266 rushing yards on 45 attempts.
There are two relevant takeaways: one, Syracuse defenders will be affected by just having dealt with a uniquely physical ground game.
Two, a uniquely physical ground game promises to be especially successful against the Orange, especially given their defensive line issues.
Notre Dame's Ground Game
In other words, not only is Notre Dame problematically huge and strong, but it will force Syracuse to deal with tremendous physicality for a second consecutive week.
On the Irish offensive line, left tackle Joe Alt is 317 pounds; left guard Jarrett Patterson is 310 pounds; center Zeke Correll is 308 pounds; right guard Josh Lugg is 316 pounds; right tackle Blake Fisher is 327 pounds.
During the offseason, Irish offensive linemen gained significant weight and became, throughout the entire unit, uniquely well-sized.
This group will replicate Clemson's success on the ground.
At running back, some mixture of Logan Diggs, Chris Tyree, and Audric Estime has figured in their team's best scoring outputs.
All three running backs are capable of having big games.
Tyree is possibly the most one-dimensional of the running backs, although his speed is exception. He runs the 40-yard dash in under 4.4.
Both Diggs and Estime bring a more balanced mixture of speed and strength, although Estime is uniquely powerful and hard to bring down at 227 pounds.
Notre Dame's Pass Attack
A Syracuse supporter will counter my analysis by emphasizing the shakiness of Notre Dame's quarterback play.
But this shakiness is irrelevant to this game and overstated.
It is irrelevant because last week, for example, Notre Dame exceeded 40 points despite completing 50 percent of its pass attempts.
The Irish can score a lot while passing little, and this ability to rely on running the ball to score has been a common feature of somewhat older but still recent Fighting Irish squads that Notre Dame coaches have emphasized by making the team's offensive linemen larger.
Drew Pyne's shakiness is also overstated because a struggling quarterback loves a big target.
He has arguably the best tight end at his disposal in Michael Mayer, a weekly threat to exceed 100 yards and catch one touchdown.
Mayer can do especially well against an Orange defense that, as evident in its team's near loss to Purdue, can struggle to contain opposing tight ends.
Pyne also has a bunch of former four-star recruits at wide receiver at his disposal, so the bevy of talent is certainly there against Syracuse's top-heavy cornerback group.
Syracuse's Reliance on Running
Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader is a dual-threat who likes to run a lot, and Sean Tucker normally averages around 20 carries.
Syracuse's most successful offensive performances against Power Five competition have generally been those in which Shrader ran efficiently and productively.
Shrader vs. Notre Dame Defense
Problematically for the Orange, Notre Dame excels at limiting the rushing output of mobile quarterbacks.
North Carolina's Drake Maye, for example, ran for 36 yards on 2.5 YPC against Notre Dame, which amounted to his second-worst rushing performance of the season.
Pass-rushing talent helps Notre Dame in this respect.
Isaiah Foskey with his superb motor is especially noteworthy. He has six sacks on the season.
He and his teammates look primed to harass Shrader also because the Orange rank 116th nationally at limiting the opponent's sack rate.
The Irish pass rush, plus a secondary deep with veteran and fresh talent, repeatedly causes opposing quarterbacks to fail to reach their averages in yards, completion percentage, and passer rating.
Parlay Verdict
Notre Dame's ability to dominate on the ground and the play-action possibilities that this ability opens with Pyne and Mayer will ensure a high-scoring Fighting Irish scoring output laden with big plays.
While, overall, I like the Fighting Irish defense to do well because they match up well against Shrader, their run defense with its inconsistent tackling is liable to give up big plays to opposing running backs, and Orange running back Sean Tucker is repeatedly capable of achieving big plays.
Syracuse, therefore, won't have the consistent success on offense necessary to be competitive in this game, but its occasional big plays will help the "over" hit.
Best Bet: Parlay Fighting Irish +2.5 at -110 & Over 47.5 at -113 at +260 odds with BetOnline
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, October 29, 2022 at noon ET at JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse
Syracuse's Defensive Line Issues
Entering this season, Syracuse's defensive line already inspired concern.
Its top four and five of its top six defensive linemen departed, leaving a group that lacked a combination of depth and experience in terms of playing time.
Syracuse's problem of lacking proven good defensive linemen has been compounded by injuries.
Unfortunately for the Orange, Denis Jaquez and Terry Lockett, both defensive linemen, have suffered season-ending injuries.
Particularly the interior of Syracuse's defensive line has been viewed, since prior to the start of the season, with concern, and Lockett in particular was hoped to allay this concern.
Syracuse Just Played Clemson
The Orange are coming off two consecutive big games, one against NC State and, most recently, they faced another high-ranking ACC foe, Clemson.
Clemson's physicality in the trenches was overwhelming even as its pass attack struggled with uncertain quarterback play.
As a result of Clemson's offensive line strength, the Orange allowed the Tigers' top two running backs to combine for 266 rushing yards on 45 attempts.
There are two relevant takeaways: one, Syracuse defenders will be affected by just having dealt with a uniquely physical ground game.
Two, a uniquely physical ground game promises to be especially successful against the Orange, especially given their defensive line issues.
Notre Dame's Ground Game
In other words, not only is Notre Dame problematically huge and strong, but it will force Syracuse to deal with tremendous physicality for a second consecutive week.
On the Irish offensive line, left tackle Joe Alt is 317 pounds; left guard Jarrett Patterson is 310 pounds; center Zeke Correll is 308 pounds; right guard Josh Lugg is 316 pounds; right tackle Blake Fisher is 327 pounds.
During the offseason, Irish offensive linemen gained significant weight and became, throughout the entire unit, uniquely well-sized.
This group will replicate Clemson's success on the ground.
At running back, some mixture of Logan Diggs, Chris Tyree, and Audric Estime has figured in their team's best scoring outputs.
All three running backs are capable of having big games.
Tyree is possibly the most one-dimensional of the running backs, although his speed is exception. He runs the 40-yard dash in under 4.4.
Both Diggs and Estime bring a more balanced mixture of speed and strength, although Estime is uniquely powerful and hard to bring down at 227 pounds.
Notre Dame's Pass Attack
A Syracuse supporter will counter my analysis by emphasizing the shakiness of Notre Dame's quarterback play.
But this shakiness is irrelevant to this game and overstated.
It is irrelevant because last week, for example, Notre Dame exceeded 40 points despite completing 50 percent of its pass attempts.
The Irish can score a lot while passing little, and this ability to rely on running the ball to score has been a common feature of somewhat older but still recent Fighting Irish squads that Notre Dame coaches have emphasized by making the team's offensive linemen larger.
Drew Pyne's shakiness is also overstated because a struggling quarterback loves a big target.
He has arguably the best tight end at his disposal in Michael Mayer, a weekly threat to exceed 100 yards and catch one touchdown.
Mayer can do especially well against an Orange defense that, as evident in its team's near loss to Purdue, can struggle to contain opposing tight ends.
Pyne also has a bunch of former four-star recruits at wide receiver at his disposal, so the bevy of talent is certainly there against Syracuse's top-heavy cornerback group.
Syracuse's Reliance on Running
Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader is a dual-threat who likes to run a lot, and Sean Tucker normally averages around 20 carries.
Syracuse's most successful offensive performances against Power Five competition have generally been those in which Shrader ran efficiently and productively.
Shrader vs. Notre Dame Defense
Problematically for the Orange, Notre Dame excels at limiting the rushing output of mobile quarterbacks.
North Carolina's Drake Maye, for example, ran for 36 yards on 2.5 YPC against Notre Dame, which amounted to his second-worst rushing performance of the season.
Pass-rushing talent helps Notre Dame in this respect.
Isaiah Foskey with his superb motor is especially noteworthy. He has six sacks on the season.
He and his teammates look primed to harass Shrader also because the Orange rank 116th nationally at limiting the opponent's sack rate.
The Irish pass rush, plus a secondary deep with veteran and fresh talent, repeatedly causes opposing quarterbacks to fail to reach their averages in yards, completion percentage, and passer rating.
Parlay Verdict
Notre Dame's ability to dominate on the ground and the play-action possibilities that this ability opens with Pyne and Mayer will ensure a high-scoring Fighting Irish scoring output laden with big plays.
While, overall, I like the Fighting Irish defense to do well because they match up well against Shrader, their run defense with its inconsistent tackling is liable to give up big plays to opposing running backs, and Orange running back Sean Tucker is repeatedly capable of achieving big plays.
Syracuse, therefore, won't have the consistent success on offense necessary to be competitive in this game, but its occasional big plays will help the "over" hit.
Best Bet: Parlay Fighting Irish +2.5 at -110 & Over 47.5 at -113 at +260 odds with BetOnline
