Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: Week 13 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, November 27, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
North Carolina’s Offensive Scheme
One can accurately say that North Carolina passes to facilitate its ground game and that North Carolina runs in order to set up its pass attack.
The Tar Heels will spread out a defense and then run different counter, power, and zone plays.
In the backfield, they feature primarily two different running backs, the very speedy Michael Carter and the stronger Javonte Williams. Both are averaging at least seven YPC.
They will also run in order to compel opposing linebackers to remain close to the line of scrimmage and to lull opposing defensive backs.
Then, quarterback Sam Howell becomes more dangerous perhaps by using play-action to set up the deep ball.
UNC, which ranks seventh nationally in yards per pass attempt, loves to go deep.
This offense has abundant wide receiver ability with which to capitalize on Howell’s deep ball accuracy.
Two wide receivers exceeded 1,000 yards last year. Both of them — Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome — plus five other wide receivers have earned a reception of 40 yards or longer this season.
Phil Longo’s offense will add some wrinkles to keep Notre Dame on its toes in other ways.
This offense is very much predicated on the idea of having numerical advantages.
For example, if Howell sees opposing defenders crashing on his running back in a handoff situation, he may keep it and exploit open running lanes for sizable gains.
Also, the Tar Heel offense will utilize tempo to wear down opposing defenders and to keep the defense from substituting.
North Carolina Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
It’s easy to look at what the Irish run defense did against Clemson’s Travis Etienne and other running backs and to grow optimistic in Notre Dame’s run defense.
But Notre Dame’s excellent run defense statistics come at a cost that the Tar Heels will be glad to maximize.
To explain: the Tigers ran 14 play-action plays and accrued 15.9 YPP (yards per play) on those plays.
In their last game, the Irish saw Boston College attempt 16 play-action plays. BC’s drastically less potent offense accrued 11.1 YPP on those 16 attempts.
The Irish run defense seems strong because it sells out to stop the run. It will need to sell out to limit the Tar Heels’ thunder-and-lightning duo and Howell will make them pay.
Howell can make especially this Irish pass defense pay downfield.
Notre Dame routinely makes mistakes in coverage. Film study reveals routine tendencies of individual cornerbacks to play too soft, to get burnt, to arrive too late, to play with too much cushion, or for other reasons to give up big plays.
These mistakes happened against Clemson. But the Irish secondary was lucky to face Trevor Lawrence’s backup, who does not attempt deep passes at nearly the rate that Lawrence likes to.
Likewise, Boston College's quarterback is not typically accurate. But he still inflicted the Irish secondary with five pass plays of at least 20 yards.
After a rocky start to the season where he had his two worst games of the season in terms of passer rating and reached half of his current interception total, Howell is on point.
Completing 67.7 percent of his passes, he flashes the accuracy that Boston College’s quarterback lacks and the proclivity and supporting personnel to throw deep that Clemson’s lacked.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Unlike North Carolina’s offense, Notre Dame’s will be potently two-dimensional.
North Carolina’s run defense lacks sufficient physicality against the run especially due to its inability to replace departed defensive linemen Aaron Crawford and Jason Strowbridge.
Its run defense numbers look decent because Boston College, NC State, and Syracuse produced abysmally little on the ground.
Performing well against those three teams, though, fails to justify hope in UNC’s run defense because they rank outside the top 80 nationally in rush offense.
UNC's lack of physicality, solidity, and stability against the run surfaced in other games but most noticeably in its most difficult test, against Virginia Tech, which produced 260 rushing yards on 48 attempts.
Like Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Virginia did against UNC, Notre Dame will use its ground game en route to a strong scoring output.
Notre Dame boasts a physical offensive line. Its strength up front will create enough push and enough holes for Kyren Williams to improve upon his current 5.7 YPC average.
Quarterback Ian Book is more comfortable throwing downfield than his reputation suggests. With him, the Irish rank 33rd in YPA.
Completing 62 percent of his passes and throwing 11 touchdowns to one interception, Book brings a degree of accuracy that UNC’s 96th-ranked pass defense hasn’t been tested by.
The Verdict
North Carolina will provide Notre Dame’s secondary with another tough test that will yield another high scoring output.
The Irish will also score a lot with its strong ground game complementing a multi-level pass attack.
Best Bet: Over 66 at -108 with Heritage
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, November 27, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
North Carolina’s Offensive Scheme
One can accurately say that North Carolina passes to facilitate its ground game and that North Carolina runs in order to set up its pass attack.
The Tar Heels will spread out a defense and then run different counter, power, and zone plays.
In the backfield, they feature primarily two different running backs, the very speedy Michael Carter and the stronger Javonte Williams. Both are averaging at least seven YPC.
They will also run in order to compel opposing linebackers to remain close to the line of scrimmage and to lull opposing defensive backs.
Then, quarterback Sam Howell becomes more dangerous perhaps by using play-action to set up the deep ball.
UNC, which ranks seventh nationally in yards per pass attempt, loves to go deep.
This offense has abundant wide receiver ability with which to capitalize on Howell’s deep ball accuracy.
Two wide receivers exceeded 1,000 yards last year. Both of them — Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome — plus five other wide receivers have earned a reception of 40 yards or longer this season.
Phil Longo’s offense will add some wrinkles to keep Notre Dame on its toes in other ways.
This offense is very much predicated on the idea of having numerical advantages.
For example, if Howell sees opposing defenders crashing on his running back in a handoff situation, he may keep it and exploit open running lanes for sizable gains.
Also, the Tar Heel offense will utilize tempo to wear down opposing defenders and to keep the defense from substituting.
North Carolina Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
It’s easy to look at what the Irish run defense did against Clemson’s Travis Etienne and other running backs and to grow optimistic in Notre Dame’s run defense.
But Notre Dame’s excellent run defense statistics come at a cost that the Tar Heels will be glad to maximize.
To explain: the Tigers ran 14 play-action plays and accrued 15.9 YPP (yards per play) on those plays.
In their last game, the Irish saw Boston College attempt 16 play-action plays. BC’s drastically less potent offense accrued 11.1 YPP on those 16 attempts.
The Irish run defense seems strong because it sells out to stop the run. It will need to sell out to limit the Tar Heels’ thunder-and-lightning duo and Howell will make them pay.
Howell can make especially this Irish pass defense pay downfield.
Notre Dame routinely makes mistakes in coverage. Film study reveals routine tendencies of individual cornerbacks to play too soft, to get burnt, to arrive too late, to play with too much cushion, or for other reasons to give up big plays.
These mistakes happened against Clemson. But the Irish secondary was lucky to face Trevor Lawrence’s backup, who does not attempt deep passes at nearly the rate that Lawrence likes to.
Likewise, Boston College's quarterback is not typically accurate. But he still inflicted the Irish secondary with five pass plays of at least 20 yards.
After a rocky start to the season where he had his two worst games of the season in terms of passer rating and reached half of his current interception total, Howell is on point.
Completing 67.7 percent of his passes, he flashes the accuracy that Boston College’s quarterback lacks and the proclivity and supporting personnel to throw deep that Clemson’s lacked.
Notre Dame Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Unlike North Carolina’s offense, Notre Dame’s will be potently two-dimensional.
North Carolina’s run defense lacks sufficient physicality against the run especially due to its inability to replace departed defensive linemen Aaron Crawford and Jason Strowbridge.
Its run defense numbers look decent because Boston College, NC State, and Syracuse produced abysmally little on the ground.
Performing well against those three teams, though, fails to justify hope in UNC’s run defense because they rank outside the top 80 nationally in rush offense.
UNC's lack of physicality, solidity, and stability against the run surfaced in other games but most noticeably in its most difficult test, against Virginia Tech, which produced 260 rushing yards on 48 attempts.
Like Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Virginia did against UNC, Notre Dame will use its ground game en route to a strong scoring output.
Notre Dame boasts a physical offensive line. Its strength up front will create enough push and enough holes for Kyren Williams to improve upon his current 5.7 YPC average.
Quarterback Ian Book is more comfortable throwing downfield than his reputation suggests. With him, the Irish rank 33rd in YPA.
Completing 62 percent of his passes and throwing 11 touchdowns to one interception, Book brings a degree of accuracy that UNC’s 96th-ranked pass defense hasn’t been tested by.
The Verdict
North Carolina will provide Notre Dame’s secondary with another tough test that will yield another high scoring output.
The Irish will also score a lot with its strong ground game complementing a multi-level pass attack.
Best Bet: Over 66 at -108 with Heritage
