Notre Dame vs. Boston College: NCAAF Week 11 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Classic Betting Spot
We need to consider that Notre Dame just upset Clemson, which was at that time the number-one ranked team in the nation.
What this victory creates is a classic betting situation that favors Boston College called the let-down.
After pulling off a huge win of the kind that the Irish just did, teams enjoy an emotional high. In their following game, they tend to enter an emotional low and appear poorly concentrated and uninspired.
It is often hard for these teams to feel motivated by playing a lesser team after they had just won a big game.
It will be easy for the Irish to avoid taking a middling Boston College team seriously whose winning record is propped up by opponents like Texas State and, just barely, Syracuse.
Notre Dame will also fail to take the Eagles seriously because of what happened last year. In 2019, Notre Dame blew out Boston College 40-7.
Many Eagle players, too, likely remember that game and will be extra motivated to make up for it.
Quarterback Improvement
A major reason why Boston College got blown out by the Irish last year was its situation at quarterback.
The Eagles had to start its backup quarterback Dennis Grosel. Grosel was the team’s backup despite the fact that its previously established starter, Anthony Brown, was already a fairly inaccurate quarterback.
Like Brown, Grosel failed to complete 60 percent of his passes. In fact, Grosel did not complete even half of his pass attempts against the Irish.
This year, the Eagles are improved at the quarterback position with former Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec.
Jurkovec is completing over 60 percent of his passes while averaging 7.5 YPA and throwing 15 touchdowns to four interceptions.
He’ll benefit from facing an Irish pass defense that ranks 37 spots lower than what it did last year when the Irish shut down Boston College with its backup quarterback.
The only similarly ranked pass defense that Jurkovec has faced is Clemson’s. He held his own in his team’s near upset of hugely favored Clemson, which ended in a 34-28 win for the Tigers.
Run Defense Improvement
When the Eagles were blown out by Notre Dame last year, they could barely accrue any time of possession.
Bad offense led to bad defense in that Boston College lacked the ability particularly at quarterback to sustain drives.
This lack of offensively ability meant that its defense had to stay on the field for more time. Gradually, Notre Dame could wear down BC’s defense.
The Irish amassed 252 rushing yards also because the Eagles’ run defense was not as good.
This year’s Boston College run defense ranks 31 spots higher than last year’s.
Proof of its elevated quality comes in its game against Clemson, where it limited arguably the nation’s best running back in Travis Etienne to 84 rushing yards on 20 attempts.
Boston College’s defensive line is stacked with veteran experience.
Chibueze Onwuka has already proven to be a valuable hole-plugger as evidenced by his run-stuffing efforts against Pittsburgh, among other opponents.
Brandon Barlow at defensive end also makes his presence felt to a vastly more positive degree than in previous seasons.
Its linebacking corps also enjoys a health and level of continuity and chemistry that it did not enjoy last season.
Max Richardson will be one key cog. He was a preseason All-ACC first-teamer this year.
Improved Eagle run defense means that Notre Dame will have to rely more on quarterback Ian Book.
The Eagles’ pass defense will be redoubtable. It’s already well-tested. For example, it gave UNC quarterback Sam Howell his worst game of the season in terms of passing yards and passer rating.
The Verdict
Boston College is a must-bet because oddsmakers do not account for situations with their spread.
So this let-down scenario ensures that all of the betting value lies with the Eagles.
I do tend to find that favored teams in negative betting scenarios regroup at halftime.
But even if the Irish were not in letdown-mode, they will face a significantly tougher Eagle squad that features a stronger pass attack and more formidable defense against both the run and the pass.
When you’re shopping at the top sportsbooks like BetOnline and Bovada, be sure to invest in the expectation that Boston College at least hangs tight with Notre Dame for at least the first half.
Best Bet: Eagles First-Half ATS (Odds TBA)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Classic Betting Spot
We need to consider that Notre Dame just upset Clemson, which was at that time the number-one ranked team in the nation.
What this victory creates is a classic betting situation that favors Boston College called the let-down.
After pulling off a huge win of the kind that the Irish just did, teams enjoy an emotional high. In their following game, they tend to enter an emotional low and appear poorly concentrated and uninspired.
It is often hard for these teams to feel motivated by playing a lesser team after they had just won a big game.
It will be easy for the Irish to avoid taking a middling Boston College team seriously whose winning record is propped up by opponents like Texas State and, just barely, Syracuse.
Notre Dame will also fail to take the Eagles seriously because of what happened last year. In 2019, Notre Dame blew out Boston College 40-7.
Many Eagle players, too, likely remember that game and will be extra motivated to make up for it.
Quarterback Improvement
A major reason why Boston College got blown out by the Irish last year was its situation at quarterback.
The Eagles had to start its backup quarterback Dennis Grosel. Grosel was the team’s backup despite the fact that its previously established starter, Anthony Brown, was already a fairly inaccurate quarterback.
Like Brown, Grosel failed to complete 60 percent of his passes. In fact, Grosel did not complete even half of his pass attempts against the Irish.
This year, the Eagles are improved at the quarterback position with former Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec.
Jurkovec is completing over 60 percent of his passes while averaging 7.5 YPA and throwing 15 touchdowns to four interceptions.
He’ll benefit from facing an Irish pass defense that ranks 37 spots lower than what it did last year when the Irish shut down Boston College with its backup quarterback.
The only similarly ranked pass defense that Jurkovec has faced is Clemson’s. He held his own in his team’s near upset of hugely favored Clemson, which ended in a 34-28 win for the Tigers.
Run Defense Improvement
When the Eagles were blown out by Notre Dame last year, they could barely accrue any time of possession.
Bad offense led to bad defense in that Boston College lacked the ability particularly at quarterback to sustain drives.
This lack of offensively ability meant that its defense had to stay on the field for more time. Gradually, Notre Dame could wear down BC’s defense.
The Irish amassed 252 rushing yards also because the Eagles’ run defense was not as good.
This year’s Boston College run defense ranks 31 spots higher than last year’s.
Proof of its elevated quality comes in its game against Clemson, where it limited arguably the nation’s best running back in Travis Etienne to 84 rushing yards on 20 attempts.
Boston College’s defensive line is stacked with veteran experience.
Chibueze Onwuka has already proven to be a valuable hole-plugger as evidenced by his run-stuffing efforts against Pittsburgh, among other opponents.
Brandon Barlow at defensive end also makes his presence felt to a vastly more positive degree than in previous seasons.
Its linebacking corps also enjoys a health and level of continuity and chemistry that it did not enjoy last season.
Max Richardson will be one key cog. He was a preseason All-ACC first-teamer this year.
Improved Eagle run defense means that Notre Dame will have to rely more on quarterback Ian Book.
The Eagles’ pass defense will be redoubtable. It’s already well-tested. For example, it gave UNC quarterback Sam Howell his worst game of the season in terms of passing yards and passer rating.
The Verdict
Boston College is a must-bet because oddsmakers do not account for situations with their spread.
So this let-down scenario ensures that all of the betting value lies with the Eagles.
I do tend to find that favored teams in negative betting scenarios regroup at halftime.
But even if the Irish were not in letdown-mode, they will face a significantly tougher Eagle squad that features a stronger pass attack and more formidable defense against both the run and the pass.
When you’re shopping at the top sportsbooks like BetOnline and Bovada, be sure to invest in the expectation that Boston College at least hangs tight with Notre Dame for at least the first half.
Best Bet: Eagles First-Half ATS (Odds TBA)
