Luck Not on Irish Side in 2018 Regular Season Win Total Betting
While it’s true that „defense wins championships,“ even the best defense can’t throw, run, or catch the ball as well. Read on for a preview of Notre Dame’s upcoming season and justification for the „under“ 9.5 win total.
Notre Dame 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: „Under“ 9.5 wins
2017: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Notre Dame releases 2018 football schedule <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Irish</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UND?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#UND</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NCAA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#NCAA</a> <a href="https://t.co/WDkUOaUR2U">https://t.co/WDkUOaUR2U</a> <a href="https://t.co/n76ZupeBtE">pic.twitter.com/n76ZupeBtE</a></p>— Fighting Irish 101 (@NDIrish_101) <a href=" ">3. März 2017</a></blockquote>
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Top Heisman Candidate: Quarterback Brandon Wimbush +7500
Offense:
Notre Dame’s offense will live or die with the success of quarterback Brandon Wimbush. In 2017, Wimbush was a dual-threat, but more of a runner than a passer. He ran for 803 yards, the second most ever by an Irish quarterback, but completed only 49.5% of his passes. His throwing issues had sundry sources: mechanics and footwork, poor decisions mostly stemming from insufficient understanding of his offensive system because he was a first-year starter, lack of trust in his receivers, and accuracy. To name some examples, he threw too often from his back foot and otherwise failed to achieve a harmony between his upper body and lower body while throwing. Also, on option plays, he would keep the ball and lose two yards when it was obvious that he needed to pitch it to the running back. He worked on these issues in the offseason and he’ll certainly be a better passer.
The thing is that it’s one thing to expect Wimbush to improve individually and another to expect him to assume the role that he will need to given the situation around him. Wimbush will miss star running back Josh Adams, who achieved over 1400 yards, nine rushing touchdowns, and 6.9 yards per carry. Top backup Deon McIntosh was dismissed. That leaves two question marks in Dexter Williams and Tony Jones, who combined for only 81 carries last season, with the bulk of their numbers coming against lower-tiered competition. Moreover, the Irish lose two top o-linemen and a coach. The blocking unit won’t be nearly as experienced as last season.
Wide receiver is probably the biggest issue. Historically, returning wide receivers have a greater impact on an offense’s success rate. Notre Dame will miss its top two receivers, Equanimeous St. Brown and Kevin Stepherson. St. Brown led in receptions and yards, Stepherson in yards per catch. Notre Dame’s backup receivers do carry potential. Miles Boykin has great size and physique and had a wonderful bowl game against LSU. He seems to have an uncanny ability to connect with Wimbush on deep passes, but with his lack of speed he doesn’t seem like a reliable deep threat against stronger opponents. Chase Claypool is talented and will be one of a few receivers in the mix if he can finally stay healthy. This unit will need time to gel.
Defense:
There is little reason for negativity with Notre Dame’s defense. Last season, it was young and under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Nevertheless, it was great, ranking 25th in opposing yards per play and 19th in opposing points per play. Notre Dame’s was the last FBS defense to allow over 20 points in a game. The defensive coordinator departs, but this more experienced crew will benefit from remaining in the same defensive scheme because the linebacking coach was promoted to defensive coordinator. The defensive line helped Notre Dame average 4.0 opposing rush yards per carry for the first time since 2012 and returns six of its top eight. The linebackers also benefit from continuity, returning four of six. Historically, returning defensive backs exercise a relatively great influence on S&P in the following year and Notre Dame returns every one besides one, who had lost his starting position. The top cornerback is Julian Love, who holds the single season record for pass breakups and led the team with 68 tackles and two interceptions for a touchdown.
The defense will be the biggest reason that Notre Dame should be more of an „under“ team. Besides, Wimbush has been working on screens and accuracy in the short passing game, will miss his biggest playmakers—Adams, who had eight 50-yard runs in the first eight games, and St. Brown and Stepherson. Also, Wimbush is great at avoiding turnovers.
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Schedule:
Notre Dame’s toughest opponents will be Michigan, Stanford, and Florida State at home and Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC on the road. In finding losses, it’s best to begin with the end because, under Coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame has been historically bad starting in November. Last season, they were 0-4 ATS and 2-2 SU in the final four games of the season. In 2016 they were bad throughout the season. In 2015, they were 1-4 ATS and 4-1 SU (benefitting from three games in which they were double-digit favorites) in the final five games. Last season, they fizzled when Adams was running out of steam and no longer producing so many big plays and when Wimbush had to shoulder a greater load against tough secondaries. That’s why, with the question marks in the run game with the departure of key offensive linemen, I worry about Notre Dame’s offense.
I think Notre Dame loses at USC. Notre Dame destroyed USC last season thanks to 377 rushing yards. But USC’s defensive line was also paper thin due to an insane amount of injuries. This year’s USC misses quarterback Sam Darnold, but boasts five-star talent in the current quarterback competition and will have an established starter before hosting Notre Dame on November 24. Besides, USC will support him with numerous weapons at wide receiver and running back and a vastly improved offensive line with a lot of returning experience. The defense is also stacked with talent on all three levels.
Perpetually underrated Northwestern could be another loss. It boasts an NFL-caliber quarterback in the now healthy Clayton Thorson and also returns its top two wide receivers plus more experience overall. Northwestern surged in the second half of last season, scoring at least 30 points in five of its last seven games, especially thanks to its improved offensive line play. Northwestern’s dominant defensive line, that helped the team rank ninth in opposing rushing, will be the key against Notre Dame’s enervated line. Northwestern returns all but one in that spot and will be bolstered by five of the top seven linebackers back, led by upcoming superstar Paddy Fisher.
I’m counting on at least one more loss to come either from Florida State or Michigan. Michigan finally gets a decent quarterback after suffering in this position last year and benefits from more experience in what was an extremely young wide receiving corps. Injuries afflicted the quarterbacks as well as the wide receivers, which proved to be a blessing in disguise for the very productive tight ends that all return in addition to the now healthy Tarik Black at wide receiver. Although Notre Dame has a great record in home openers, it has mostly played lower-tiered competition. And although Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has yet to beat a ranked team on the road, Michigan was millimeters away from upsetting #3 Ohio State in 2016, the sample size is small, and injuries and lack of experience played a factor. So Notre Dame could certainly be Harbaugh’s first. „Defense travels“ and Michigan’s defense allowed only 18.8 points per game despite losing an insane amount of experience, so I think this group will be even better. Florida State will rebuild under its new coach Willie Taggart, but I expect the Seminoles to have gelled by November, which is anyhow the period where the Irish tend to fizzle. The Seminoles will have a healthy quarterback in Deondre Francois, a talented duo at running back, an offensive line that will greatly improve with more experience, and a rush defense that will force Wimbush to win the game. Florida State’s last season numbers, on both sides of the ball, make them easy to overlook. But they also had serious motivation issues after losing Francois in the season opener—this was most evident in a ridiculously embarrassing 35-3 loss at Boston College-- and its defense suffered from match-up nightmare Lamar Jackson.
Finally, Notre Dame could trip up elsewhere—perhaps against Stanford or Navy, which has played the Irish tough in recent years.
Verdict:
The main complaint in 2016 was that the Irish failed to achieve enough big plays. This is an offense that can easily become stagnant without Adams, its top two receivers, and a downgraded offensive line. The defense is strong, but this season will fall mostly on its quarterback’s shoulders and I don’t trust Wimbush to succeed in the expanded role that he’ll need to assume this season.
While it’s true that „defense wins championships,“ even the best defense can’t throw, run, or catch the ball as well. Read on for a preview of Notre Dame’s upcoming season and justification for the „under“ 9.5 win total.
Notre Dame 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: „Under“ 9.5 wins
2017: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Notre Dame releases 2018 football schedule <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Irish</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UND?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#UND</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NCAA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#NCAA</a> <a href="https://t.co/WDkUOaUR2U">https://t.co/WDkUOaUR2U</a> <a href="https://t.co/n76ZupeBtE">pic.twitter.com/n76ZupeBtE</a></p>— Fighting Irish 101 (@NDIrish_101) <a href=" ">3. März 2017</a></blockquote>
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Top Heisman Candidate: Quarterback Brandon Wimbush +7500
Offense:
Notre Dame’s offense will live or die with the success of quarterback Brandon Wimbush. In 2017, Wimbush was a dual-threat, but more of a runner than a passer. He ran for 803 yards, the second most ever by an Irish quarterback, but completed only 49.5% of his passes. His throwing issues had sundry sources: mechanics and footwork, poor decisions mostly stemming from insufficient understanding of his offensive system because he was a first-year starter, lack of trust in his receivers, and accuracy. To name some examples, he threw too often from his back foot and otherwise failed to achieve a harmony between his upper body and lower body while throwing. Also, on option plays, he would keep the ball and lose two yards when it was obvious that he needed to pitch it to the running back. He worked on these issues in the offseason and he’ll certainly be a better passer.
The thing is that it’s one thing to expect Wimbush to improve individually and another to expect him to assume the role that he will need to given the situation around him. Wimbush will miss star running back Josh Adams, who achieved over 1400 yards, nine rushing touchdowns, and 6.9 yards per carry. Top backup Deon McIntosh was dismissed. That leaves two question marks in Dexter Williams and Tony Jones, who combined for only 81 carries last season, with the bulk of their numbers coming against lower-tiered competition. Moreover, the Irish lose two top o-linemen and a coach. The blocking unit won’t be nearly as experienced as last season.
Wide receiver is probably the biggest issue. Historically, returning wide receivers have a greater impact on an offense’s success rate. Notre Dame will miss its top two receivers, Equanimeous St. Brown and Kevin Stepherson. St. Brown led in receptions and yards, Stepherson in yards per catch. Notre Dame’s backup receivers do carry potential. Miles Boykin has great size and physique and had a wonderful bowl game against LSU. He seems to have an uncanny ability to connect with Wimbush on deep passes, but with his lack of speed he doesn’t seem like a reliable deep threat against stronger opponents. Chase Claypool is talented and will be one of a few receivers in the mix if he can finally stay healthy. This unit will need time to gel.
Defense:
There is little reason for negativity with Notre Dame’s defense. Last season, it was young and under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Nevertheless, it was great, ranking 25th in opposing yards per play and 19th in opposing points per play. Notre Dame’s was the last FBS defense to allow over 20 points in a game. The defensive coordinator departs, but this more experienced crew will benefit from remaining in the same defensive scheme because the linebacking coach was promoted to defensive coordinator. The defensive line helped Notre Dame average 4.0 opposing rush yards per carry for the first time since 2012 and returns six of its top eight. The linebackers also benefit from continuity, returning four of six. Historically, returning defensive backs exercise a relatively great influence on S&P in the following year and Notre Dame returns every one besides one, who had lost his starting position. The top cornerback is Julian Love, who holds the single season record for pass breakups and led the team with 68 tackles and two interceptions for a touchdown.
The defense will be the biggest reason that Notre Dame should be more of an „under“ team. Besides, Wimbush has been working on screens and accuracy in the short passing game, will miss his biggest playmakers—Adams, who had eight 50-yard runs in the first eight games, and St. Brown and Stepherson. Also, Wimbush is great at avoiding turnovers.
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Schedule:
Notre Dame’s toughest opponents will be Michigan, Stanford, and Florida State at home and Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC on the road. In finding losses, it’s best to begin with the end because, under Coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame has been historically bad starting in November. Last season, they were 0-4 ATS and 2-2 SU in the final four games of the season. In 2016 they were bad throughout the season. In 2015, they were 1-4 ATS and 4-1 SU (benefitting from three games in which they were double-digit favorites) in the final five games. Last season, they fizzled when Adams was running out of steam and no longer producing so many big plays and when Wimbush had to shoulder a greater load against tough secondaries. That’s why, with the question marks in the run game with the departure of key offensive linemen, I worry about Notre Dame’s offense.
I think Notre Dame loses at USC. Notre Dame destroyed USC last season thanks to 377 rushing yards. But USC’s defensive line was also paper thin due to an insane amount of injuries. This year’s USC misses quarterback Sam Darnold, but boasts five-star talent in the current quarterback competition and will have an established starter before hosting Notre Dame on November 24. Besides, USC will support him with numerous weapons at wide receiver and running back and a vastly improved offensive line with a lot of returning experience. The defense is also stacked with talent on all three levels.
Perpetually underrated Northwestern could be another loss. It boasts an NFL-caliber quarterback in the now healthy Clayton Thorson and also returns its top two wide receivers plus more experience overall. Northwestern surged in the second half of last season, scoring at least 30 points in five of its last seven games, especially thanks to its improved offensive line play. Northwestern’s dominant defensive line, that helped the team rank ninth in opposing rushing, will be the key against Notre Dame’s enervated line. Northwestern returns all but one in that spot and will be bolstered by five of the top seven linebackers back, led by upcoming superstar Paddy Fisher.
I’m counting on at least one more loss to come either from Florida State or Michigan. Michigan finally gets a decent quarterback after suffering in this position last year and benefits from more experience in what was an extremely young wide receiving corps. Injuries afflicted the quarterbacks as well as the wide receivers, which proved to be a blessing in disguise for the very productive tight ends that all return in addition to the now healthy Tarik Black at wide receiver. Although Notre Dame has a great record in home openers, it has mostly played lower-tiered competition. And although Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has yet to beat a ranked team on the road, Michigan was millimeters away from upsetting #3 Ohio State in 2016, the sample size is small, and injuries and lack of experience played a factor. So Notre Dame could certainly be Harbaugh’s first. „Defense travels“ and Michigan’s defense allowed only 18.8 points per game despite losing an insane amount of experience, so I think this group will be even better. Florida State will rebuild under its new coach Willie Taggart, but I expect the Seminoles to have gelled by November, which is anyhow the period where the Irish tend to fizzle. The Seminoles will have a healthy quarterback in Deondre Francois, a talented duo at running back, an offensive line that will greatly improve with more experience, and a rush defense that will force Wimbush to win the game. Florida State’s last season numbers, on both sides of the ball, make them easy to overlook. But they also had serious motivation issues after losing Francois in the season opener—this was most evident in a ridiculously embarrassing 35-3 loss at Boston College-- and its defense suffered from match-up nightmare Lamar Jackson.
Finally, Notre Dame could trip up elsewhere—perhaps against Stanford or Navy, which has played the Irish tough in recent years.
Verdict:
The main complaint in 2016 was that the Irish failed to achieve enough big plays. This is an offense that can easily become stagnant without Adams, its top two receivers, and a downgraded offensive line. The defense is strong, but this season will fall mostly on its quarterback’s shoulders and I don’t trust Wimbush to succeed in the expanded role that he’ll need to assume this season.
good to see you back man
