NCAA Football Week 9 Parlay Plays For Saturday
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Over 40 Points
Notre Dame has scored over 40 points in three different games thus far — against South Florida, Florida State, and Pittsburgh.
What those games have in common is the fact that, offensively, Notre Dame dominated either in passing or in running.
I like the Fighting Irish to fly past 40 points this weekend because they will dominate Georgia Tech both in passing and running.
Ian Book
Fighting Irish quarterback Ian Book has gotten flack for struggling against good pass defenses. But he dominates weaker secondaries.
In two games so far, his passer rating exceeded 150. Against Pitt and Florida State, he combined for over 500 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions.
Both of those teams rank outside the top 80 in opposing passer rating. Likewise, Georgia Tech ranks 106th in the category.
Georgia Tech’s pass defense can be vulnerable to big plays. It ranks 102nd in allowing 13.1 YPC.
This point is important because Book has completely dispelled his former reputation as a quarterback who’s only capable of making short to intermediate throws.
After being one of four quarterbacks last year to complete 25 of his 20+-yard pass attempts complete and to complete at least half of those attempts, Book is averaging 8.3 YPA.
While Book likes to spread the love, Javon McKinley is stepping up to be Notre Dame’s leading receiver. He was never known for his speed as he, instead, relies upon his size and catch radius.
But his speed is sufficient to give him big-play potential. HIs longest reception is 41 yards.
Six different Irish pass-catchers have over 100 yards so far this season. This variety gives Book a luxury against a secondary that is at its worst in its drop off after cornerback Tre Swilling.
Run Game
But Notre Dame can also simply follow Boston College’s game plan last week. The Eagles scored their 40+ points against the Yellow Jackets mostly by keeping the ball on the ground, accruing 264 rushing yards on 44 attempts.
Like Boston College, Notre Dame owns a reputation for having big, strong, and powerful offensive linemen.
Its collection of run-blocking maulers helps explain why Notre Dame ranks 14th nationally in accruing 231.8 rushing yard per game.
Expect this success to continue against a Yellow Jacket defense that ranks 100th in opposing YPC.
Jeff Sims
Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims forms the heart and soul of the Yellow Jacket offense. He even co-leads the team in rushing attempts. But with his team increasingly falling behind, he’ll want to attempt more passes.
The problem with relying on Sims is that he is an inefficient quarterback as attested by his low completion percentage. He also makes too many mistakes. Currently, he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
He does not have the pass accuracy to navigate a Notre Dame secondary that has reloaded and restacked itself.
TaRiq Bracy has already earned PFF Team of the Week honors once this season. He helps the Irish rank 36th in opposing passer rating.
Best Bet: Fighting Irish -20 at -109 with GTBets
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Florida’s Defense
This year, the Gators’ defense has been a complete and utter disappointment. They’ve allowed over 40 points in two of their three games thus far. Overall, they rank 95th in allowing 33.3 points per game.
A lot explains Florida’s trouble. The defense, for starters, cannot get off the field. This inability has surfaced repeatedly. South Carolina, for example, covered the spread by prolonging drives with third- and fourth-down conversions.
While the Gators have missed some assignments in coverage, a big reason why teams are driving downfield on them is that their quarterbacks have more time to throw.
Last year, Florida was able to bring pressure. This now appears to be the case due to Florida’s personnel in 2019.
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has cultivated a reputation for dialing up exotic blitzes and otherwise creatively finding ways to apply pressure.
But it’s clear, now, that the Gators really miss pass rushers like Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga.
Whereas the Gators ranked 5th in sack rate last season, they now rank 52nd in the category. A mediocre pass rush has made Florida’s defense abysmal.
Missouri Offense vs. Florida Defense
Missouri is able to exploit Florida’s weakness with Connor Bazelak at quarterback.
Unlike the guy he replaced, Bazelak is comfortable throwing downfield. He’s averaging nine YPA and has thrown four touchdowns to one interception.
Despite his ambitions, he’s completing 70.7 percent of his passes. He’s growing a reputation on third downs where his poise in the pocket helps him step up to make drive-sustaining throws.
Largely because of him, the Tigers own the nation’s 27th-best third down conversion. So expect them to drive downfield a lot against a Gator defense that ranks 128th in opposing third down conversion rate.
Also look for Missouri’s ground game to keep a Florida defense honest that misses its top run-stopper from last year, David Reese.
At running back, Larry Rountree provides toughness and physicality that makes it hard for opponents to bring him down. He’s currently averaging 5.4 YPA against top-25 opponents.
With his skill set, Rountree will give Florida the same kind of trouble that Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller did when he ran for 174 yards against the Gator defense on October 10.
Florida Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Last year, Mizzou’s pass defense ranked 23rd as measured by opposing pass yard per game.
This year, the Tigers return its top-caliber safety combo and has new cornerbacks stepping up.
It’s true that Missouri’s pass defense numbers appear to be quite poor.
But whereas Florida is getting gashed by even depleted wide receiving groups, MIssouri is only struggling with the elite sort of weapons that Florida lacks.
Top-caliber wide receivers have killed Missouri. Alabama and LSU has those and those teams explain Missouri’s poor pass defense numbers.
Because otherwise, Missouri has been strong against the pass. Its efforts against Tennessee and Kentucky show this.
At wide receiver, Florida does not have the size, speed, and route-running polish of a guy like Terrace Marshall Jr. or the combo of speed and skill set that Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle posses.
The Tigers have the ability at cornerback to limit the best of what Florida has to offer at wide receiver. In particular, Jarvis Ware with his combo of size and speed allowed zero explosive plays last year.
Adam Sparks is faster and his increased speed and his scrappy qualities make him a good option to cover Kadarius Toney.
At safety, Josh Bledsoe is historically successful at Missouri with his speed and physicality in coverage giving him the ability to amass more pass break-ups.
Fellow safety Manuel Martez is highly-graded in coverage where he can limit top Gator target Kyle Pitts.
Best Bet: Tigers +13.5 (-109) at GTBets
Parlay Bet: Fighting Irish -20 (-109) & Tigers +13.5 (-109) at GTBets at +268 Odds
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Over 40 Points
Notre Dame has scored over 40 points in three different games thus far — against South Florida, Florida State, and Pittsburgh.
What those games have in common is the fact that, offensively, Notre Dame dominated either in passing or in running.
I like the Fighting Irish to fly past 40 points this weekend because they will dominate Georgia Tech both in passing and running.
Ian Book
Fighting Irish quarterback Ian Book has gotten flack for struggling against good pass defenses. But he dominates weaker secondaries.
In two games so far, his passer rating exceeded 150. Against Pitt and Florida State, he combined for over 500 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions.
Both of those teams rank outside the top 80 in opposing passer rating. Likewise, Georgia Tech ranks 106th in the category.
Georgia Tech’s pass defense can be vulnerable to big plays. It ranks 102nd in allowing 13.1 YPC.
This point is important because Book has completely dispelled his former reputation as a quarterback who’s only capable of making short to intermediate throws.
After being one of four quarterbacks last year to complete 25 of his 20+-yard pass attempts complete and to complete at least half of those attempts, Book is averaging 8.3 YPA.
While Book likes to spread the love, Javon McKinley is stepping up to be Notre Dame’s leading receiver. He was never known for his speed as he, instead, relies upon his size and catch radius.
But his speed is sufficient to give him big-play potential. HIs longest reception is 41 yards.
Six different Irish pass-catchers have over 100 yards so far this season. This variety gives Book a luxury against a secondary that is at its worst in its drop off after cornerback Tre Swilling.
Run Game
But Notre Dame can also simply follow Boston College’s game plan last week. The Eagles scored their 40+ points against the Yellow Jackets mostly by keeping the ball on the ground, accruing 264 rushing yards on 44 attempts.
Like Boston College, Notre Dame owns a reputation for having big, strong, and powerful offensive linemen.
Its collection of run-blocking maulers helps explain why Notre Dame ranks 14th nationally in accruing 231.8 rushing yard per game.
Expect this success to continue against a Yellow Jacket defense that ranks 100th in opposing YPC.
Jeff Sims
Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims forms the heart and soul of the Yellow Jacket offense. He even co-leads the team in rushing attempts. But with his team increasingly falling behind, he’ll want to attempt more passes.
The problem with relying on Sims is that he is an inefficient quarterback as attested by his low completion percentage. He also makes too many mistakes. Currently, he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
He does not have the pass accuracy to navigate a Notre Dame secondary that has reloaded and restacked itself.
TaRiq Bracy has already earned PFF Team of the Week honors once this season. He helps the Irish rank 36th in opposing passer rating.
Best Bet: Fighting Irish -20 at -109 with GTBets
Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Florida’s Defense
This year, the Gators’ defense has been a complete and utter disappointment. They’ve allowed over 40 points in two of their three games thus far. Overall, they rank 95th in allowing 33.3 points per game.
A lot explains Florida’s trouble. The defense, for starters, cannot get off the field. This inability has surfaced repeatedly. South Carolina, for example, covered the spread by prolonging drives with third- and fourth-down conversions.
While the Gators have missed some assignments in coverage, a big reason why teams are driving downfield on them is that their quarterbacks have more time to throw.
Last year, Florida was able to bring pressure. This now appears to be the case due to Florida’s personnel in 2019.
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has cultivated a reputation for dialing up exotic blitzes and otherwise creatively finding ways to apply pressure.
But it’s clear, now, that the Gators really miss pass rushers like Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga.
Whereas the Gators ranked 5th in sack rate last season, they now rank 52nd in the category. A mediocre pass rush has made Florida’s defense abysmal.
Missouri Offense vs. Florida Defense
Missouri is able to exploit Florida’s weakness with Connor Bazelak at quarterback.
Unlike the guy he replaced, Bazelak is comfortable throwing downfield. He’s averaging nine YPA and has thrown four touchdowns to one interception.
Despite his ambitions, he’s completing 70.7 percent of his passes. He’s growing a reputation on third downs where his poise in the pocket helps him step up to make drive-sustaining throws.
Largely because of him, the Tigers own the nation’s 27th-best third down conversion. So expect them to drive downfield a lot against a Gator defense that ranks 128th in opposing third down conversion rate.
Also look for Missouri’s ground game to keep a Florida defense honest that misses its top run-stopper from last year, David Reese.
At running back, Larry Rountree provides toughness and physicality that makes it hard for opponents to bring him down. He’s currently averaging 5.4 YPA against top-25 opponents.
With his skill set, Rountree will give Florida the same kind of trouble that Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller did when he ran for 174 yards against the Gator defense on October 10.
Florida Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Last year, Mizzou’s pass defense ranked 23rd as measured by opposing pass yard per game.
This year, the Tigers return its top-caliber safety combo and has new cornerbacks stepping up.
It’s true that Missouri’s pass defense numbers appear to be quite poor.
But whereas Florida is getting gashed by even depleted wide receiving groups, MIssouri is only struggling with the elite sort of weapons that Florida lacks.
Top-caliber wide receivers have killed Missouri. Alabama and LSU has those and those teams explain Missouri’s poor pass defense numbers.
Because otherwise, Missouri has been strong against the pass. Its efforts against Tennessee and Kentucky show this.
At wide receiver, Florida does not have the size, speed, and route-running polish of a guy like Terrace Marshall Jr. or the combo of speed and skill set that Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle posses.
The Tigers have the ability at cornerback to limit the best of what Florida has to offer at wide receiver. In particular, Jarvis Ware with his combo of size and speed allowed zero explosive plays last year.
Adam Sparks is faster and his increased speed and his scrappy qualities make him a good option to cover Kadarius Toney.
At safety, Josh Bledsoe is historically successful at Missouri with his speed and physicality in coverage giving him the ability to amass more pass break-ups.
Fellow safety Manuel Martez is highly-graded in coverage where he can limit top Gator target Kyle Pitts.
Best Bet: Tigers +13.5 (-109) at GTBets
Parlay Bet: Fighting Irish -20 (-109) & Tigers +13.5 (-109) at GTBets at +268 Odds
