NCAA Football Week 13 Parlay Plays for Saturday
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Misleading Statistic
It’s easy to look at the number of points that Michigan State has given up this year and to think little of the Spartan defense.
I suspect that the line at the top betting sites is moving strongly in favor of Northwestern because people are seeing how many points the Spartans have allowed.
They rank 90th in allowing 33.8 points per game.
Obviously, this statistic is terrible. But it doesn’t say anything about Michigan State’s defense.
Michigan State has only played in four games this season since it got to enjoy a COVID-induced bye week after its scheduled game last week against Maryland was canceled.
In two of those games, the Spartans allowed 38 points to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa.
Offensively, Rutgers by no means dominated Michigan State as the score would suggest.
Rutgers actually only produced 276 yards of offense.
But this was Michigan State’s season opener with a relatively new coaching staff that had arrived months later than Rutgers’ and then had to deal with COVID-induced interruptions.
So the Spartans were sloppy. They turned the ball over seven times, which meant that the Scarlet Knights frequently enjoyed propitious field position, making it easy for them to produce a high scoring output.
In the other game that might lead you to think little of Michigan State’s defense, the Spartans allowed 49 points to Iowa.
However, that game against Iowa followed Michigan State’s most important game of the season in which the Spartans earned an extremely meaningful victory at arch-rival Michigan.
So the Spartans were in a drastic let-down spot against Iowa and it showed on both offense and defense.
Northwestern Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Now, while the Spartan defense is underrated, it’s far from perfect.
While it gave up 24 points to Indiana last week — which still isn’t a lot — it also allowed Hoosier receiver Ty Fryfogle to amass 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
But Northwestern does not possess anything close to a Ty Fryfogle.
No Wildcat receiver even distinguishes himself from his teammates.
The Wildcat pass attack is built on spreading out the defense with five wide receiver sets. So no Northwestern wide receiver has caught more than 22 passes this season.
Schematically, with its 4-2-5 defense under Mel Tucker, Michigan State is perfectly equipped to contend with multi-wide receiver formations.
Tucker wants to play more nickel and dime in order to gain match up advantages in coverage and to gain flexibility in coverage type.
He has the personnel to make this work and the defense has improved its communication significantly since its first game of the season.
Coming off a bye week can only help Michigan State master Tucker’s new concepts. Still, the Spartans rank a superb 29th in opposing passer rating.
Unlike Indiana’s quarterback, Northwestern’s Peyton Ramsey flashes neither the arm strength nor nearly the same proclivity to throw downfield.
In fact, Ramsey had never been this conservative in his long career. He’s currently averaging six YPA.
Supported by a bevy of physical but boring running backs who average three or four YPC, the Wildcat offense will plod along but find itself relatively limited.
Michigan State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
The “under” is 5-0 in Northwestern’s games not only because its offense struggles to reach 20 points, but because its defense is so superb.
Currently, Northwestern ranks seventh nationally in allowing 12.6 points per game.
This defense is physical and it communicates extremely well. Without fans, you’ll hear the constant shouting that encourages Wildcat defenders’ high level of organization, their alertness, and their quick reactions.
The strength of Northwestern’s defense is its run-stopping. Its opposing run play percentage is so low because teams do not dare run on it.
Fittingly, the strength of Michigan State’s offense is its wide receiver corps.
If it's not Jayden Reed stepping up, as he did against Rutgers, it's Ricky White, who accrued 196 receiving yards against Michigan.
White, with his downfield ability, and Jalen Nailor, with his characteristic speed, are big-play threats. Each one averages over 20 yards per reception.
While Michigan State’s offense will show minimal consistency, it will develop multiple sparks by focusing on its wide receivers.
The Verdict
Since both teams will struggle to score, Northwestern will remain a perfect “under” team.
The spread is too high considering the extent to which Northwestern will struggle against the Spartan defense.
Big plays from Spartan wide receivers will help its offense score enough points.
Also, oddsmakers are not accounting for the letdown spot that Northwestern finds itself after upsetting number 10 Wisconsin. There is even some buzz that Northwestern has a chance at making the playoffs.
For the above reasons, expect a low-scoring game with a Spartan cover.
Best Bet: Parlay Spartans +13.5 at -108 & Under 41.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Misleading Statistic
It’s easy to look at the number of points that Michigan State has given up this year and to think little of the Spartan defense.
I suspect that the line at the top betting sites is moving strongly in favor of Northwestern because people are seeing how many points the Spartans have allowed.
They rank 90th in allowing 33.8 points per game.
Obviously, this statistic is terrible. But it doesn’t say anything about Michigan State’s defense.
Michigan State has only played in four games this season since it got to enjoy a COVID-induced bye week after its scheduled game last week against Maryland was canceled.
In two of those games, the Spartans allowed 38 points to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa.
Offensively, Rutgers by no means dominated Michigan State as the score would suggest.
Rutgers actually only produced 276 yards of offense.
But this was Michigan State’s season opener with a relatively new coaching staff that had arrived months later than Rutgers’ and then had to deal with COVID-induced interruptions.
So the Spartans were sloppy. They turned the ball over seven times, which meant that the Scarlet Knights frequently enjoyed propitious field position, making it easy for them to produce a high scoring output.
In the other game that might lead you to think little of Michigan State’s defense, the Spartans allowed 49 points to Iowa.
However, that game against Iowa followed Michigan State’s most important game of the season in which the Spartans earned an extremely meaningful victory at arch-rival Michigan.
So the Spartans were in a drastic let-down spot against Iowa and it showed on both offense and defense.
Northwestern Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Now, while the Spartan defense is underrated, it’s far from perfect.
While it gave up 24 points to Indiana last week — which still isn’t a lot — it also allowed Hoosier receiver Ty Fryfogle to amass 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
But Northwestern does not possess anything close to a Ty Fryfogle.
No Wildcat receiver even distinguishes himself from his teammates.
The Wildcat pass attack is built on spreading out the defense with five wide receiver sets. So no Northwestern wide receiver has caught more than 22 passes this season.
Schematically, with its 4-2-5 defense under Mel Tucker, Michigan State is perfectly equipped to contend with multi-wide receiver formations.
Tucker wants to play more nickel and dime in order to gain match up advantages in coverage and to gain flexibility in coverage type.
He has the personnel to make this work and the defense has improved its communication significantly since its first game of the season.
Coming off a bye week can only help Michigan State master Tucker’s new concepts. Still, the Spartans rank a superb 29th in opposing passer rating.
Unlike Indiana’s quarterback, Northwestern’s Peyton Ramsey flashes neither the arm strength nor nearly the same proclivity to throw downfield.
In fact, Ramsey had never been this conservative in his long career. He’s currently averaging six YPA.
Supported by a bevy of physical but boring running backs who average three or four YPC, the Wildcat offense will plod along but find itself relatively limited.
Michigan State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
The “under” is 5-0 in Northwestern’s games not only because its offense struggles to reach 20 points, but because its defense is so superb.
Currently, Northwestern ranks seventh nationally in allowing 12.6 points per game.
This defense is physical and it communicates extremely well. Without fans, you’ll hear the constant shouting that encourages Wildcat defenders’ high level of organization, their alertness, and their quick reactions.
The strength of Northwestern’s defense is its run-stopping. Its opposing run play percentage is so low because teams do not dare run on it.
Fittingly, the strength of Michigan State’s offense is its wide receiver corps.
If it's not Jayden Reed stepping up, as he did against Rutgers, it's Ricky White, who accrued 196 receiving yards against Michigan.
White, with his downfield ability, and Jalen Nailor, with his characteristic speed, are big-play threats. Each one averages over 20 yards per reception.
While Michigan State’s offense will show minimal consistency, it will develop multiple sparks by focusing on its wide receivers.
The Verdict
Since both teams will struggle to score, Northwestern will remain a perfect “under” team.
The spread is too high considering the extent to which Northwestern will struggle against the Spartan defense.
Big plays from Spartan wide receivers will help its offense score enough points.
Also, oddsmakers are not accounting for the letdown spot that Northwestern finds itself after upsetting number 10 Wisconsin. There is even some buzz that Northwestern has a chance at making the playoffs.
For the above reasons, expect a low-scoring game with a Spartan cover.
Best Bet: Parlay Spartans +13.5 at -108 & Under 41.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
