Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Week 8 Picks
Northwestern vs. Michigan Game Info
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at noon ET
FOX
Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Partly cloudy, around 54 degrees.
Northwestern vs. Michigan Odds Analysis
After opening at most sportsbooks at -21 or so, Michigan is now favored by a couple points more.
There is little reason to fear betting Michigan at such a high number. The Wolverines this season have already been favored by 16.5, 27.5, and 20 points. They are 2-1 ATS when favored by double digits.
As for the total, it opened at 49.5 and currently sits at 51, positioning it as just about the highest over/under in any Wildcat game this season.
Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Picks
Wolverines -23.5 at -110
Over 50.5 at -110
Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Predictions
ATS PLAY (23.5)
One might be tempted to bet on Northwestern because this game vaguely fits the profile of a classic lookahead. According to this line of thinking, Michigan, highly favored in this matchup, will look past an unexciting Northwestern team in order to focus on its big game next week against rival Michigan State, which is also an undefeated team.
However, there is no empirical basis for claiming that specifically the Wolverines are susceptible to this sort of situation. In fact, Michigan has covered the spread against each of the last four opponents that it faced directly prior to playing the Spartans.
The matchup speaks strongly for Michigan. The Wolverines clearly love to run: they own the nation’s sixth-highest run-play percentage. Led by Blake Corum’s 6.3 YPC and Hassan Haskins’ 4.9 YPC, they are also great at running.
Northwestern, however, is suffering massive struggles in its run defense after losing a ton of quality personnel during the offseason. Currently, the Wildcats rank 124th in allowing 243.6 rushing yards per game. This is just the team against which Michigan can run at will.
Failing to stop the run-heavy Wolverine offense creates new problems for the Wildcats as a result of exposed shortcomings in their offense.
In order to perform well, the Wildcat offense needs to run the ball. In all of its losses – in which Northwestern also failed to cover the spread -- Northwestern leading running back Evan Hull accrued 10 carries or fewer. In all of his team’s wins, Hull ran the ball over 20 times.
Because the Wildcats lack the personnel quality to limit the Wolverine offense, Michigan will consistently score at will, which will force Northwestern to abandon its run game.
Plus, the Wolverine offense will not only have to depend on consistency because of Northwestern’s notorious tendency to give up the big play, which is evident in Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker’s 75-yard touchdown run and in many other examples.
Big scores, in addition to consistent offensive success, are just what you want out of a heavily favored team that you’re betting on to cover the spread.
TOTALS PLAY (50.5)
For the “over” to hit, Michigan is going to do a lot of the work itself.
It exceeded 40 points in two games: against MAC schools Western Michigan and Northern Illinois.
In those two games, the Wolverines produced dominant rushing totals driven by big plays. These are the very things that they can accomplish against Northwestern’s porous defense.
Michigan should therefore be able to hit the “over” all by itself, while a garbage-time touchdown or so from Northwestern can only help without endangering the spread.
Northwestern vs. Michigan Game Info
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at noon ET
FOX
Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Partly cloudy, around 54 degrees.
Northwestern vs. Michigan Odds Analysis
After opening at most sportsbooks at -21 or so, Michigan is now favored by a couple points more.
There is little reason to fear betting Michigan at such a high number. The Wolverines this season have already been favored by 16.5, 27.5, and 20 points. They are 2-1 ATS when favored by double digits.
As for the total, it opened at 49.5 and currently sits at 51, positioning it as just about the highest over/under in any Wildcat game this season.
Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Picks
Wolverines -23.5 at -110
Over 50.5 at -110
Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Predictions
ATS PLAY (23.5)
One might be tempted to bet on Northwestern because this game vaguely fits the profile of a classic lookahead. According to this line of thinking, Michigan, highly favored in this matchup, will look past an unexciting Northwestern team in order to focus on its big game next week against rival Michigan State, which is also an undefeated team.
However, there is no empirical basis for claiming that specifically the Wolverines are susceptible to this sort of situation. In fact, Michigan has covered the spread against each of the last four opponents that it faced directly prior to playing the Spartans.
The matchup speaks strongly for Michigan. The Wolverines clearly love to run: they own the nation’s sixth-highest run-play percentage. Led by Blake Corum’s 6.3 YPC and Hassan Haskins’ 4.9 YPC, they are also great at running.
Northwestern, however, is suffering massive struggles in its run defense after losing a ton of quality personnel during the offseason. Currently, the Wildcats rank 124th in allowing 243.6 rushing yards per game. This is just the team against which Michigan can run at will.
Failing to stop the run-heavy Wolverine offense creates new problems for the Wildcats as a result of exposed shortcomings in their offense.
In order to perform well, the Wildcat offense needs to run the ball. In all of its losses – in which Northwestern also failed to cover the spread -- Northwestern leading running back Evan Hull accrued 10 carries or fewer. In all of his team’s wins, Hull ran the ball over 20 times.
Because the Wildcats lack the personnel quality to limit the Wolverine offense, Michigan will consistently score at will, which will force Northwestern to abandon its run game.
Plus, the Wolverine offense will not only have to depend on consistency because of Northwestern’s notorious tendency to give up the big play, which is evident in Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker’s 75-yard touchdown run and in many other examples.
Big scores, in addition to consistent offensive success, are just what you want out of a heavily favored team that you’re betting on to cover the spread.
TOTALS PLAY (50.5)
For the “over” to hit, Michigan is going to do a lot of the work itself.
It exceeded 40 points in two games: against MAC schools Western Michigan and Northern Illinois.
In those two games, the Wolverines produced dominant rushing totals driven by big plays. These are the very things that they can accomplish against Northwestern’s porous defense.
Michigan should therefore be able to hit the “over” all by itself, while a garbage-time touchdown or so from Northwestern can only help without endangering the spread.
