Northwestern vs. Iowa: NCAAF Week 9 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City
Northwestern’s Offense vs. Iowa Defense
It is true that the Wildcats scored 43 points in their season opener.
But one has to remember that they scored those points against regular Big Ten bottom-feeder Maryland.
Against Maryland, the passing game was helpful. But even against that opponent, the Wildcats only managed one pass play of 20 or more yards.
With Peyton Ramsey at quarterback, the Wildcat pass attack want to emphasize short and quick throws. So it will be telling that the Wildcats rank 88th in averaging 9.3 yards per completion.
It’s not just Ramsey, though. Northwestern is confined to a shorter passing game because it lacks ability at wide receiver.
These wide receivers will not beat guys vertically. Even the more talented ones like Kyric McGowan have trouble getting open downfield. So the Wildcats try to create opportunities for him closer to the line of scrimmage.
Even if Iowa’s secondary weren’t strong, Ramsey will struggle because he won’t have the time and comfort in the pocket that helped him against Maryland.
People want to say that Iowa regresses this year in terms of pressuring the quarterback after losing top pass rusher AJ Epenesa to the NFL Draft.
But the Hawkeyes restock on the defensive line with guys like Joe Evans who accumulated four sacks in Iowa’s final six games last season.
With his experience, Jack Heflin is able to step in immediately at defensive tackle. The grad transfer was a PFF All-Amercan honorable mention due to his All-MAC performance.
Chauncey Golston can step up in Epenesa’s absence. His sack numbers and physical tool set suggest that he will break out.
Also as a result of preseason All-Big Ten third-teamer, cornerback Matt Hankins limiting the Wildcats’ top receiver, Northwestern will be forced to focus on running the ball.
This year, the Wildcats feature a power running attack with blockers constantly looking to work downhill.
They showcased two running backs against Maryland. Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser combined for 173 yards on 33 carries. Bowser, as expected, had most of the carries and was mediocre in YPC.
So what i’m imagining is a Wildcat offense that struggles to grind out drives, painfully, with negligible run gains and short pass attempts to sub-par receivers who strong tackling cornerbacks like Hankins are able to wrap up and stop.
Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Pass rush was already a problem for the Wildcats last season. They ranked 73rd in sack rate.
Their pass rush becomes worse after losing three of four starters on the defensive line. Most notably, All-Big Ten first-teamer Joe Gaziano has departed.
Plus, the Hawkeye pass protection unit is stacked with returning ability.
A projected first-rounder before he got injured, Alaric Jackson mans the ever important left-tackle position.
Also notably, Tyler Linderbaum is likewise a ferocious force at center. He was deservedly a 2020 Preseason All-Big Ten first-teamer.
So Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras will enjoy plenty of time to throw.
As good as Wildcat cornerback Greg Newsome is when healthy, Northwestern’s depth is a question mark beyond him.
So Northwestern’s secondary — which also misses opted-out All-Big Ten safety Travis Whillock — will have its hands full as its defensive backs try to stick with Iowa’s receiving corps.
At wide receiver, Iowa is uniquely stacked after returning every wide receiver but a meaningless one from last year.
Most notably, Ihmir Smith-Marsette is a big-play target — PFF notes his ability to amass chunk plays. He flexes his superb speed downfield and is also effective as a dynamic runner.
But if a defense keys in on him and no matter who Newsome is able to lock down, if anyone, despite the lack of supporting pass rush, there are many more proven contributors besides Smith-Marsette.
The Verdict
We find good value in Iowa on the College Football Oddsboard because it lost its season opener to lowly Purdue and because Northwestern smashed its first opponent.
But Northwestern faces a tougher test in a hungry Hawkeye squad.
Iowa will have an easier time scoring with its plethora of able wide receivers and with its renewed pass defense.
Best Bet: Hawkeyes ML (-140) at Heritage
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City
Northwestern’s Offense vs. Iowa Defense
It is true that the Wildcats scored 43 points in their season opener.
But one has to remember that they scored those points against regular Big Ten bottom-feeder Maryland.
Against Maryland, the passing game was helpful. But even against that opponent, the Wildcats only managed one pass play of 20 or more yards.
With Peyton Ramsey at quarterback, the Wildcat pass attack want to emphasize short and quick throws. So it will be telling that the Wildcats rank 88th in averaging 9.3 yards per completion.
It’s not just Ramsey, though. Northwestern is confined to a shorter passing game because it lacks ability at wide receiver.
These wide receivers will not beat guys vertically. Even the more talented ones like Kyric McGowan have trouble getting open downfield. So the Wildcats try to create opportunities for him closer to the line of scrimmage.
Even if Iowa’s secondary weren’t strong, Ramsey will struggle because he won’t have the time and comfort in the pocket that helped him against Maryland.
People want to say that Iowa regresses this year in terms of pressuring the quarterback after losing top pass rusher AJ Epenesa to the NFL Draft.
But the Hawkeyes restock on the defensive line with guys like Joe Evans who accumulated four sacks in Iowa’s final six games last season.
With his experience, Jack Heflin is able to step in immediately at defensive tackle. The grad transfer was a PFF All-Amercan honorable mention due to his All-MAC performance.
Chauncey Golston can step up in Epenesa’s absence. His sack numbers and physical tool set suggest that he will break out.
Also as a result of preseason All-Big Ten third-teamer, cornerback Matt Hankins limiting the Wildcats’ top receiver, Northwestern will be forced to focus on running the ball.
This year, the Wildcats feature a power running attack with blockers constantly looking to work downhill.
They showcased two running backs against Maryland. Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser combined for 173 yards on 33 carries. Bowser, as expected, had most of the carries and was mediocre in YPC.
So what i’m imagining is a Wildcat offense that struggles to grind out drives, painfully, with negligible run gains and short pass attempts to sub-par receivers who strong tackling cornerbacks like Hankins are able to wrap up and stop.
Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Pass rush was already a problem for the Wildcats last season. They ranked 73rd in sack rate.
Their pass rush becomes worse after losing three of four starters on the defensive line. Most notably, All-Big Ten first-teamer Joe Gaziano has departed.
Plus, the Hawkeye pass protection unit is stacked with returning ability.
A projected first-rounder before he got injured, Alaric Jackson mans the ever important left-tackle position.
Also notably, Tyler Linderbaum is likewise a ferocious force at center. He was deservedly a 2020 Preseason All-Big Ten first-teamer.
So Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras will enjoy plenty of time to throw.
As good as Wildcat cornerback Greg Newsome is when healthy, Northwestern’s depth is a question mark beyond him.
So Northwestern’s secondary — which also misses opted-out All-Big Ten safety Travis Whillock — will have its hands full as its defensive backs try to stick with Iowa’s receiving corps.
At wide receiver, Iowa is uniquely stacked after returning every wide receiver but a meaningless one from last year.
Most notably, Ihmir Smith-Marsette is a big-play target — PFF notes his ability to amass chunk plays. He flexes his superb speed downfield and is also effective as a dynamic runner.
But if a defense keys in on him and no matter who Newsome is able to lock down, if anyone, despite the lack of supporting pass rush, there are many more proven contributors besides Smith-Marsette.
The Verdict
We find good value in Iowa on the College Football Oddsboard because it lost its season opener to lowly Purdue and because Northwestern smashed its first opponent.
But Northwestern faces a tougher test in a hungry Hawkeye squad.
Iowa will have an easier time scoring with its plethora of able wide receivers and with its renewed pass defense.
Best Bet: Hawkeyes ML (-140) at Heritage
