North Carolina vs. Virginia NCAAF Week 10 Top Picks: High-Scoring North Carolina to Race Past Virginia
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, November 5, 2022 at noon ET at Scott Stadium in Virginia
North Carolina's Offensive Line Woes
Since last year, especially, offensive line play has been a problem for North Carolina.
Last season, injuries and instances of individual regression plagued the quality of North Carolina's offensive line.
The offseason saw turnover. Three offensive linemen left to the NFL, amounting to a meaningful loss of talent.
Plus, the Tar Heels got a new offensive line coach -- Jack Bicknell Jr., formerly of Louisville.
While the amount of turnover following a bad year may appear to offer a kind of basis for optimism, the loss of talent and the coaching change suggest that improvement will take time.
Still Struggling
Looking at an objective measurement of the current situation, the Tar Heels rank 85th nationally at limiting the rate at which they are sacked.
Lack of pass protection has negatively influenced their offensive capacity in different games.
For example, quarterback Drake Maye suffered his worst game of the season, as measured by passer rating, in his team's three-point win over Miami.
In that game, the Hurricanes amassed five sacks, indicating a link between their pass rushing success and their ability to limit North Carolina's scoring output.
Virginia's Vastly Improved Pass Rush
North Carolina's issues with pass protection are meaningful because Virginia is well-built to exploit these issues with its strongly improved pass rush.
Nationally, the Cavaliers rank eighth in the rate at which they accrue sacks.
Besides the relevant coaching changes over the offseason, they underwent significant changes in pass-rushing personnel, which explains their current success.
During the offseason, multiple transfers joined Virginia, giving the Cavalier defensive line a boost in depth and ability.
For example, Kam Butler was an All-MAC first-teamer last year after achieving eight sacks.
Moreover, Paul Akere was an All-Ivy League second-teamer least season. He had five sacks on the season.
These guys, and others, joined a unit already stocked with playmakers.
Most notably, Aaron Faumui is the team's second-leading sack-getter and Chico Bennett Jr. is the first.
Bennett leads the ACC in sacks per game.
He, Faumui, and linebacker Nick Jackson rank top-15 in the ACC in sacks per game.
Virginia's Defensive Turnaround
Excluding overtime, the Hoos have allowed a combined total of 14 points in their past two games.
Their defense shut down Georgia Tech and Miami's respective offenses.
While one may counter that neither opponent poses a strong offensive challenge, it's meaningful that nearly both teams mustered season lows in scoring against Virginia.
Teams are suffering their worst offensive performances of the season when they face the Cavaliers' improved defense.
What the worst North Carolina offensive performance of the season would look like is a scoring total in the mid 20s, leaving plenty of room for Virginia to cover the spread against what is one of the nation's lowest-ranked defenses.
Playing the Total
It follows from Virginia's positive chances of covering the spread that the "under" is the best bet on the total.
Virginia is not going to cover the spread in a shootout, but it will cover the spread by leaning on its pass rush to help continue its strong run of defensive success and limit the Tar Heel offensive output.
While regressed Cavalier quarterback Brennan Armstrong has obviously had his issues making decisions and hitting his targets, if he is fit to play on Saturday, then he can make use of his characteristic mobility against a Tar Heel defense that allowed Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, for example, to run for a season-high 130 yards.
Wide receiver is Virginia's strongest position group on offense, featuring a level of talent obscured by issues with depth.
Between Armstrong's 250-300 passing yards, his running, and his help from wide receivers who amassed 990 or more yards last year, Virginia will score enough to cover the spread in a low-scoring contest.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +7.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Under 59 at -107 with BetOnline
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, November 5, 2022 at noon ET at Scott Stadium in Virginia
North Carolina's Offensive Line Woes
Since last year, especially, offensive line play has been a problem for North Carolina.
Last season, injuries and instances of individual regression plagued the quality of North Carolina's offensive line.
The offseason saw turnover. Three offensive linemen left to the NFL, amounting to a meaningful loss of talent.
Plus, the Tar Heels got a new offensive line coach -- Jack Bicknell Jr., formerly of Louisville.
While the amount of turnover following a bad year may appear to offer a kind of basis for optimism, the loss of talent and the coaching change suggest that improvement will take time.
Still Struggling
Looking at an objective measurement of the current situation, the Tar Heels rank 85th nationally at limiting the rate at which they are sacked.
Lack of pass protection has negatively influenced their offensive capacity in different games.
For example, quarterback Drake Maye suffered his worst game of the season, as measured by passer rating, in his team's three-point win over Miami.
In that game, the Hurricanes amassed five sacks, indicating a link between their pass rushing success and their ability to limit North Carolina's scoring output.
Virginia's Vastly Improved Pass Rush
North Carolina's issues with pass protection are meaningful because Virginia is well-built to exploit these issues with its strongly improved pass rush.
Nationally, the Cavaliers rank eighth in the rate at which they accrue sacks.
Besides the relevant coaching changes over the offseason, they underwent significant changes in pass-rushing personnel, which explains their current success.
During the offseason, multiple transfers joined Virginia, giving the Cavalier defensive line a boost in depth and ability.
For example, Kam Butler was an All-MAC first-teamer last year after achieving eight sacks.
Moreover, Paul Akere was an All-Ivy League second-teamer least season. He had five sacks on the season.
These guys, and others, joined a unit already stocked with playmakers.
Most notably, Aaron Faumui is the team's second-leading sack-getter and Chico Bennett Jr. is the first.
Bennett leads the ACC in sacks per game.
He, Faumui, and linebacker Nick Jackson rank top-15 in the ACC in sacks per game.
Virginia's Defensive Turnaround
Excluding overtime, the Hoos have allowed a combined total of 14 points in their past two games.
Their defense shut down Georgia Tech and Miami's respective offenses.
While one may counter that neither opponent poses a strong offensive challenge, it's meaningful that nearly both teams mustered season lows in scoring against Virginia.
Teams are suffering their worst offensive performances of the season when they face the Cavaliers' improved defense.
What the worst North Carolina offensive performance of the season would look like is a scoring total in the mid 20s, leaving plenty of room for Virginia to cover the spread against what is one of the nation's lowest-ranked defenses.
Playing the Total
It follows from Virginia's positive chances of covering the spread that the "under" is the best bet on the total.
Virginia is not going to cover the spread in a shootout, but it will cover the spread by leaning on its pass rush to help continue its strong run of defensive success and limit the Tar Heel offensive output.
While regressed Cavalier quarterback Brennan Armstrong has obviously had his issues making decisions and hitting his targets, if he is fit to play on Saturday, then he can make use of his characteristic mobility against a Tar Heel defense that allowed Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, for example, to run for a season-high 130 yards.
Wide receiver is Virginia's strongest position group on offense, featuring a level of talent obscured by issues with depth.
Between Armstrong's 250-300 passing yards, his running, and his help from wide receivers who amassed 990 or more yards last year, Virginia will score enough to cover the spread in a low-scoring contest.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +7.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Under 59 at -107 with BetOnline
