North Carolina vs Temple: Military Bowl NCAAF Picks and Predictions
North Carolina vs Temple
Friday, December 27, 2019 at noon ET (ESPN) at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Odds and Trends
Oddsmakers opened North Carolina as six-point favorites. But betting love for Temple has moved the spread a couple points in the Owls’ favor.
One noteworthy trend expresses how awfully Rod Carey-led teams perform in bowl games. Temple’s head coach is 0-6 SU and ATS in bowl games with five losses by over 20 points.
Tar Heel coach Mack Brown, in contrast, has a winning postseason record.
Temple Pass Rush vs Sam Howell
A primary reason why bettors like Temple has to do with its pass rush. Defensive line forms a strength for Temple, which ranks 22nd in sack rate and, on paper, looks promising against North Carolina’s unreliable pass protection.
Sam Howell, however, is a historically special quarterback for the Tar Heels. While he’s accurate in the pocket, he also moves well enough to escape opposing pass rushers.
Despite being a freshman, he’s constructed a 35-to-seven touchdown-to-interception ratio and leads the ACC in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Howell has already contended with superb pass rushes and shown that they don’t bother him. Against Pitt, for example, he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.
Against another team with a high-ranking pass rush in Virginia, Howell amassed 350 passing yards and four touchdowns.
North Carolina On The Ground
Based on advanced metrics, Temple’s defensive line is weaker against the rush and North Carolina’s offensive line is stronger in the run game.
In terms of opportunity rate, which measures the help that an offensive line gives its ball-carrier, the Tar Heels rank 34th.
They boast two different running backs — Michael Carter and Javonte Wiliams -- who average over five YPC on over 150 carries.
Both running backs complement each other stylistically. Williams is strong and he excels at continuing to drive forward with his legs as defenders try to bring him down.
Carter is more of a big-play threat with his speed. Both are very capable as outlets for Howell out of the passing game in case Temple’s pass rush threatens to succeed on a given play.
In most of its worst losses, Temple’s run defense was a big problem as Buffalo amassed over 200 rushing yards without support from a competent quarterback.
While Buffalo generated 38 points, UCF scored 63 largely thanks to 385 rushing yards.
With Carter, Williams, and its offensive line, UNC has the personnel to create sundry third-and-short situations where Temple’s pass rush won’t be able to tee off like in third-and-long.
Temple Offense vs Tar Heel Defense
While Howell is capable of carrying UNC with prolific passing numbers, the same cannot be said of Temple quarterback Anthony Russo.
Temple likes to utilize its run game to set up its pass attack. So when Temple struggles to run, the whole offense has trouble moving the ball.
When Temple runs for over 100 yards, it’s 7-1 ATS. Conversely, the Owls are 1-3 ATS when rushing for fewer than 100 yards.
Metrics show UNC’s defensive line to rank in the upper-third percentile against the run.
It’s rare for an opposing running back to threaten UNC’s defense.
In turn, the Tar Heels have enjoyed superb efforts against the run, for example holding Clemson’s star running back to his third-worst performance on the season in terms of YPC.
Russo will have too much on his shoulders. He’s too often an inefficient, unexciting, interception-prone quarterback who has inflated his numbers against weak competition.
Best Bet: Tar Heels -4 at -115 odds with BetOnline
North Carolina vs Temple
Friday, December 27, 2019 at noon ET (ESPN) at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Odds and Trends
Oddsmakers opened North Carolina as six-point favorites. But betting love for Temple has moved the spread a couple points in the Owls’ favor.
One noteworthy trend expresses how awfully Rod Carey-led teams perform in bowl games. Temple’s head coach is 0-6 SU and ATS in bowl games with five losses by over 20 points.
Tar Heel coach Mack Brown, in contrast, has a winning postseason record.
Temple Pass Rush vs Sam Howell
A primary reason why bettors like Temple has to do with its pass rush. Defensive line forms a strength for Temple, which ranks 22nd in sack rate and, on paper, looks promising against North Carolina’s unreliable pass protection.
Sam Howell, however, is a historically special quarterback for the Tar Heels. While he’s accurate in the pocket, he also moves well enough to escape opposing pass rushers.
Despite being a freshman, he’s constructed a 35-to-seven touchdown-to-interception ratio and leads the ACC in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Howell has already contended with superb pass rushes and shown that they don’t bother him. Against Pitt, for example, he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.
Against another team with a high-ranking pass rush in Virginia, Howell amassed 350 passing yards and four touchdowns.
North Carolina On The Ground
Based on advanced metrics, Temple’s defensive line is weaker against the rush and North Carolina’s offensive line is stronger in the run game.
In terms of opportunity rate, which measures the help that an offensive line gives its ball-carrier, the Tar Heels rank 34th.
They boast two different running backs — Michael Carter and Javonte Wiliams -- who average over five YPC on over 150 carries.
Both running backs complement each other stylistically. Williams is strong and he excels at continuing to drive forward with his legs as defenders try to bring him down.
Carter is more of a big-play threat with his speed. Both are very capable as outlets for Howell out of the passing game in case Temple’s pass rush threatens to succeed on a given play.
In most of its worst losses, Temple’s run defense was a big problem as Buffalo amassed over 200 rushing yards without support from a competent quarterback.
While Buffalo generated 38 points, UCF scored 63 largely thanks to 385 rushing yards.
With Carter, Williams, and its offensive line, UNC has the personnel to create sundry third-and-short situations where Temple’s pass rush won’t be able to tee off like in third-and-long.
Temple Offense vs Tar Heel Defense
While Howell is capable of carrying UNC with prolific passing numbers, the same cannot be said of Temple quarterback Anthony Russo.
Temple likes to utilize its run game to set up its pass attack. So when Temple struggles to run, the whole offense has trouble moving the ball.
When Temple runs for over 100 yards, it’s 7-1 ATS. Conversely, the Owls are 1-3 ATS when rushing for fewer than 100 yards.
Metrics show UNC’s defensive line to rank in the upper-third percentile against the run.
It’s rare for an opposing running back to threaten UNC’s defense.
In turn, the Tar Heels have enjoyed superb efforts against the run, for example holding Clemson’s star running back to his third-worst performance on the season in terms of YPC.
Russo will have too much on his shoulders. He’s too often an inefficient, unexciting, interception-prone quarterback who has inflated his numbers against weak competition.
Best Bet: Tar Heels -4 at -115 odds with BetOnline
