NL Wild Card Series Best Bets
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia's Starting Pitchers
When predicting which team will win a given series, the most important thing to consider is the starting pitcher matchups.
For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler will start Game 1 while Aaron Nola will start Game 2.
After these two pitches, Ranger Suarez follows.
A Potential Game 3
Given this significant drop off in quality -- from two incessant Cy Young contenders to a middling lefty -- it would be ideal for Philadelphia to sweep this series.
If the Phillies win both games, then they won't have to rely on Suarez.
Now, Suarez is far from awful -- his 3.65 ERA is indeed respectable as much as it has recently sky-rocketed after his last start in Houston's small ballpark.
Suarez, in fact, recently locked down baseball's best lefty-hitting lineup -- as measured by slugging rate.
He limited this lineup, Atlanta, to one run in six innings on September 16 before shutting out the Braves over the course of six innings in his very start.
So, while the fact that Suarez is left-handed yields a significant advantage to the Cardinals' righty-heavy lineup, one in which its best hitters are right-handed, Suarez would still stand a good chance to succeed against the Cardinals.
Still, Philadelphia would obviously rather use its two best pitchers to end the series as early as possible.
St. Louis' Pitching Rotation
St. Louis has not set its rotation for the Wild Card Series.
They have, though, the following starting pitchers to choose from: Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, and Jose Quintana.
St. Louis' Starting Pitcher Disadvantage
Collectively, St. Louis' starting pitcher options, in terms of quality, fall drastically short of Philadelphia's.
Wainwright is a team icon who Cardinal fans love to overrate.
But he is pitching horribly at just the most critical time of year.
Before allowing four earned runs in consecutive starts against the Dodgers and Padres, he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings against Pittsburgh.
Mikolas has been very hit-or-miss in the second half of the season, during which span of time his ERA is close to two points higher than in the first half.
I can't imagine St. Louis willingly starting Flaherty whose lack of command -- he averages 5.50 walks per nine innings -- only forms the start of his worries.
While Montgomery has cooled off after a sizzling start in a Cardinal uniform, Jose Quintana has been performing well lately, although his most recent starts came against teams that struggle to hit lefties.
Both Quintana and Montgomery would be at a disadvantage because they are left-handed because Philadelphia owns one of the best left-hitting lineups.
As measured by slugging rate, the Phillies are sixth-best at hitting left-handed pitching.
Wheeler and Nola
I contend that Philadelphia can end this series after two games.
The perennially solid Wheeler with his sub-three ERA enters Game 1 having allowed a combined total of one run in his past three starts.
Similarly solid, Nola has accrued 17 strikeouts to zero walks in his past two starts.
Critically, both pitchers love facing St. Louis.
They both yield a sub-2.70 ERA in their career against the Cardinals.
And somehow, according to the MLB Odds, Philadelphia is an underdog.
Best Bet: Phillies to Win Series at +120 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitcher Matchups
We can safely take for granted that the Mets will win Game 1 while led by Max Scherzer.
With his current and ridiculous 2.29 ERA, Scherzer remains one of baseball's best pitchers.
Yu Darvish, for San Diego, is simply outmatched.
Game 2
The Mets might decide to pursue a bold strategy in trying to save up Jacob deGrom for Game 3 or for the following series.
Chris Bassitt, a worse alternative, may start Game 2.
But Bassitt is no slouch: he limited the Padres to two runs in seven innings in their regular season matchup.
San Diego can and should counter with Joe Musgrove who might be their top pitching option altogether.
But Musgrove struggled in his regular season start against the Mets.
After all, they rank sixth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mets -1.5 at +150 with Bovada
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia's Starting Pitchers
When predicting which team will win a given series, the most important thing to consider is the starting pitcher matchups.
For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler will start Game 1 while Aaron Nola will start Game 2.
After these two pitches, Ranger Suarez follows.
A Potential Game 3
Given this significant drop off in quality -- from two incessant Cy Young contenders to a middling lefty -- it would be ideal for Philadelphia to sweep this series.
If the Phillies win both games, then they won't have to rely on Suarez.
Now, Suarez is far from awful -- his 3.65 ERA is indeed respectable as much as it has recently sky-rocketed after his last start in Houston's small ballpark.
Suarez, in fact, recently locked down baseball's best lefty-hitting lineup -- as measured by slugging rate.
He limited this lineup, Atlanta, to one run in six innings on September 16 before shutting out the Braves over the course of six innings in his very start.
So, while the fact that Suarez is left-handed yields a significant advantage to the Cardinals' righty-heavy lineup, one in which its best hitters are right-handed, Suarez would still stand a good chance to succeed against the Cardinals.
Still, Philadelphia would obviously rather use its two best pitchers to end the series as early as possible.
St. Louis' Pitching Rotation
St. Louis has not set its rotation for the Wild Card Series.
They have, though, the following starting pitchers to choose from: Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, and Jose Quintana.
St. Louis' Starting Pitcher Disadvantage
Collectively, St. Louis' starting pitcher options, in terms of quality, fall drastically short of Philadelphia's.
Wainwright is a team icon who Cardinal fans love to overrate.
But he is pitching horribly at just the most critical time of year.
Before allowing four earned runs in consecutive starts against the Dodgers and Padres, he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings against Pittsburgh.
Mikolas has been very hit-or-miss in the second half of the season, during which span of time his ERA is close to two points higher than in the first half.
I can't imagine St. Louis willingly starting Flaherty whose lack of command -- he averages 5.50 walks per nine innings -- only forms the start of his worries.
While Montgomery has cooled off after a sizzling start in a Cardinal uniform, Jose Quintana has been performing well lately, although his most recent starts came against teams that struggle to hit lefties.
Both Quintana and Montgomery would be at a disadvantage because they are left-handed because Philadelphia owns one of the best left-hitting lineups.
As measured by slugging rate, the Phillies are sixth-best at hitting left-handed pitching.
Wheeler and Nola
I contend that Philadelphia can end this series after two games.
The perennially solid Wheeler with his sub-three ERA enters Game 1 having allowed a combined total of one run in his past three starts.
Similarly solid, Nola has accrued 17 strikeouts to zero walks in his past two starts.
Critically, both pitchers love facing St. Louis.
They both yield a sub-2.70 ERA in their career against the Cardinals.
And somehow, according to the MLB Odds, Philadelphia is an underdog.
Best Bet: Phillies to Win Series at +120 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitcher Matchups
We can safely take for granted that the Mets will win Game 1 while led by Max Scherzer.
With his current and ridiculous 2.29 ERA, Scherzer remains one of baseball's best pitchers.
Yu Darvish, for San Diego, is simply outmatched.
Game 2
The Mets might decide to pursue a bold strategy in trying to save up Jacob deGrom for Game 3 or for the following series.
Chris Bassitt, a worse alternative, may start Game 2.
But Bassitt is no slouch: he limited the Padres to two runs in seven innings in their regular season matchup.
San Diego can and should counter with Joe Musgrove who might be their top pitching option altogether.
But Musgrove struggled in his regular season start against the Mets.
After all, they rank sixth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mets -1.5 at +150 with Bovada
