Niffel Time

[O-State]

College winding down gots to turn profit elsewhere



Denver @ NYJ -8 9,18 3,27 16,3 26,25

SF +7 @ Buffalo 24,21 15,20 15,13 29,16

New Orleans +4.5 @ TAMPA 13,27 13,18 11,1 2,24

Carolina +3 @ GREEN BAY 20,7 26,17 12,22 6,8

NYG -3.5 @ Washington 1,3 6,7 19,21 7,4

Miami @ ST. LOUIS +8 15,8 30,9 28,8 21,28

BALTIMORE -7 @ Cincinnati 4,29 4,24 29,30 3,15

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 @ Cleveland 30,22 25,28 6,27 11,20

Atlanta +4 @ SAN DIEGO 26,2 16,21 7,14 32,23

PITTSBURGH +1 @ New England 25,8 1,14 18,10 1,17

Kansas City @ OAKLAND -3 10,12 29,31 32,23 10,27

CHICAGO +3 @ Minnesota 11,6 5,2 20,25 30,22

Jacksonville +3 @ HOUSTON 14,17 23,19 4,17 13,14


NYJ should have big run edge, Den big pass edge, NY more pass success than DEN run success. Spread a little high. NYJ ML

SF and Buffalo are even steven SF playing better as of late. Pass defense 29th for SF but Buff don't scare me. How are they 13th passing? Take the points.

Tampa #2 pass defense to match up with #1 pass offense. NO on road again. NO cannot run the ball 27<SUP>th</SUP> in league. Tampa will have more pass success than Tampa run success, NO should win pass battle and Tampa run battle. NO won first meeting in barn burner big plays won the game. Thought Tampa wasn't as bad defensively as looked think they can contain them 2nd time at home. Lean Tampa win but 4.5? where is 3

Carolina should have great run success. Both equal pass defenses but GB better pass offense. Very good advantage run Car but again GB off horrible loss at home will be tough in bounceback mode. Lean GB or no play.

Giants and Wash are similar everywhere. Even pass offense even. First game of year Giants won. Redskins vastly improved since first game of year, the way G-men are playing see no reasons to not take Giants it’s like Tennessee short lined game playing great. But at Wash, Skins play great vs. division opponents. Giants/no play

Miami will have big run edge but do not blow anyone out. Lean St. Louis No play

Balts big advanatage everywhere. Play of the week for me.

Cleveland might have some run advantage but pretty close. Pass advantage Indy big. No Quinn, two teams going in opposite directions. Should be alot like the Texans win LW in Cleveland. INDY

Atlanta has big run advantage. And a pass advantage. But at SD, ATL completely different team on road and SD needs needs win. Do think SD has improved a tad under Rivera as DC. But how is SD -4? too much. Lean SD or no play.

Rush offense NE big advantage but Pitt best run D. Pretty close pass offense Pitt #1 pass D would give Pitt pass advantage. NE has given up sacks think Pitt can rattle them with pressure on the youngster. Lean Pitt

Chicago - Minney stats so even who knows but at Minney and Peterson great vs. Chicago. Stop, stop, stop, cut backs for 60 in the past. Initially leaned Chi-town now lean Minney. High scoring affair Chi town won earlier in year.

Run stats pretty similar, pass stats to Houston and at Houston on MNF. Jax going downhill not a good team Houston pretty decent big stage for them here.



---------------
Liking Balts, Indy, SF, Houston

NYG, PITT next

Would look at some big home motivational edges next in GB, SD. Maybe Tampa and Minnesota next.

Miami/St. Loui and KC/Oak games unbettable for me.

 

[O-State]

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I think you are on to something with Balty-- Indy also my friend---

fade Buffalo they stink also--

lets talk some football u aruond?

 

[RetroVK]

gl ostate

 

[O-State]

Sammy talk to me who you eyeing??

Mr. NFL

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I am thinking of the following but its tough to put them into plays my friend-----

Packers own some major advantages over Carolina-- Carolina is 23rd passing offense-
Packers are 6th vs the pass, not so great vs run but can stack the line and force the crap Delhomme to pass--
packers in cold weatehr, wet field, off the monday night beating? THE D plays better and the O looked good last week--

Personaly Carolina is nothing but a home team, Delhomme looks like a crippled bastard on the road.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Giants- -3.5

think about buying this to 3---

Jason Campbell will not beat the Giants, no way no chance- his release is awkard too slow, and the skins are crap on D and generate no pressure and have major injuries in this game, no Fletcher, and 2 other d starters-

No BURRESS, maybe a distraction but Giants are on a bigtime roll beating everyone, i dont see Skins being the first to beat the Giants, but stranger shit has happened.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Indy team total over 24??

My friend Cleveland gets no pressure on opposing QB's----

I can see Manning scoring some points here in this game, also cleveland is not good vs the pass at all---

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thinking BALTY is a great tease game---

perhaps with ATL up to 11.5?

I know balty will beat CINCY, they beat bad teams and Fitxpatrick will not move the ball vs BALTY--

ALso panthers last week really proved that they are a fraud along with Zona , and the SKINS---

Broncos +9 looks alright to me, they are overvaluing the jets, would not be shocked if jets lost, its this spot where they are trailing and losing at half usually.

 

[O-State]

The Packers are 20th rush offense to Carolina 7th
26th rush defense to Carolina 17th
12th pass offense to CArolina 22
6th pass defense to Carolina 8th

All #'s in first post in that order, CAPPED team 1st in each category

So we have CAR 7th rush offense vs. GB 26th rush defense as the major stat standing out. GB run offense middle of pack as is CAR rush defense

Passing Offense GB is better. Both Pass defenses are GReat

----Kind of concerns me Sammy is CAR is like ATL who came into GB and beat GB in Lambeau. Tough, gritty, running football team. A Jon Fox team good this time of year

BUT IMO GB has been MONEY in back to wall situations. No doubt Bree's 2000 yard performance will light a fire under their A@@. Chicago at GB remember two weeks ago GB backs against wall

So I think it's pretty even but lean GB simply on fact that they are great in this situational spot. However, not a sure thing because Jon Fox grit.


------Giants agree, stats surprisingly close but I mean Giants do more with it, they know how to play on the field on the scoreboard.

Definately the better team. And Manning > Campbell

Some ppl on REdskins saying "oh bad spot for G-Men nothing to play for they got the division locked up" Redskins will be sky high. I do think Skins are better in divisional games ala Cowboys or Giants.

This is same reasoning for TENNessee. Same type of lined game -3. Kind of reminds me of that ppl want to say oh they have to lose sometime.

At -3 I see value in Giants.

 

[O-State]

Indy O 24 I could see. 7 of 10 games INDY scored 21 or more.

But only 5 of 10 23 or more

However, CLE is the WORST defense Indy has faced to date

Usually Indy has to score to win maybe CLE can't score this game? and Indy runs it out second half

70% odds this goes over

----getting interested in Bronco's. Think line is high and with high scoring offense will always be coming back, BUT I can't back them. Look @ NE. The Jet's can run the ball and stop the run. Dominate the clock. This Bronco's team you are taking a great leap of faith. A possibility exists they get blown out with Shanahan's mickey mouse waiver claimed defense.

---I think wait and look for 2nd half play with Bronco's. Get down early and Cutler can lead them back on an inflated line playing catch up. Have troulbe backing them for game.

BALTS will win for sure----I see no need to tease. This is the type of team you can take and have no regrets, run defense, run offense, great defense----this time of year I think they handle Fitzpatrick and these Bungles

---Good point on Panthers losing to ATl. Still think they are a solid team but maybe not in that upper echelon
GB kind of growing on me a bit.

 

[HUNT]

gl brah

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Agree on Balty they can score now and should win this game like 23-7 ish---

tehy keep scoring and keep playing D, they are like a machine-- they are not flashy--

I like them to win and chances are they should be able to score enough to cover this-

Fitzpatrick will have a bad game also and I cant see CINCY trying that hard every week, they may get killed one game--

BALTY so far this year wins these games and covers, I see no reason why they let Fitzpatrick beat them or cover?