Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Over the last few months I have focused on how to eradicate the main flaws of my wagering. One of them has definitely been: too many plays. I used to break down the card, have plays every day, and as time went on I realized my blade wasn't as sharp any more, I've lost that 'edge' a good punter has over the book. I don't think I'm a top class punter but rather a solid one, but my main goal every season in every sport is to end up above 110% ROI. Everything above that is a bonus. Tough task though.
The point of this small rant is that even with my limited plays approach, there are days which represent a better opportunity investment wise, and I believe we are heading into one tonight.
The Canes are playing well in the past few weeks, their main goal is to hang on to another division title. I still think they won't be overtaken at the top, simply looking at the other teams schedules and trying to foresee what will happen within the next few weeks, I believe Carolina will see postseason. However, dismissing their divisional opponents during the remaining clashes is a must. Even the bottom feeders Thrashers. The Thrashers are 2-9-4 since February 15th and have scored 4 goals in last 3 games.
The game before that, they posted a come-from-behind win over Calgary, after 0:3 they raced back and won the game 6:4. I do not see this happening tonight. The Canes are a high octane team, they rarely get outshot, and it will be tough for Atlanta to cope with pressure from the blueline. The Canes just beat Ottawa 5:1, in a game which was all Canes after the initial goal scored by the Sens. They had plenty of rest since, and are now looking to thump the Thrashers before clashing with Florida and Washington. After that they'll face Atlanta once more. This is a road dominated series, and mostly by Carolina as well.
# Hurricanes are 16-5-3 in the last 24 meetings in Atlanta.
# Hurricanes are 30-14-4 in the last 48 meetings.
# Road team is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
One more thing which shouldn't be disregarded. The Thrashers are playing the 2nd of a b2b game, following a 3:2 loss in Philadelphia. I simply don't believe they can play a tight game again, even more if we know the Thrashers are 8-20 in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.
Most of what I've written is already included in the price tag, making the ML play quite chalky. The puckline is of course a riskier option, but I believe the Canes will solve this one early, and Atlanta won't have the firepower to bounce back, as their scoring slumps have been quite frequent of late. According to my estimations this warrants a high stake bet right here.
Carolina Hurricanes (-1,5) (2.74 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
Had this bet "bubbling under the surface" as BC would put it for a while now. The Sharks are coming off an 11 game winning streak which was interrupted with the loss against Edmonton. Two days later they beat LA whilst getting outshot, but Brian Boucher hung on to a win. Nabokov will be back in net tonight but I'm still liking Minnesota here, a lot. The Sharks are one of the main Cup contenders if you ask me, they've got everything. Very balanced lines, performing special units, a great goalie. However, I believe this isn't a good spot for them. The biggest streak in franchise history was interrupted, then they just barely hopped on to the winning bandwagon against a team that never should have been a real challenge.
Tonight they're meeting a team that will be. However, the Sharks have won six straight against the Wild, including all three meetings this season. Nabokov has been in net for each of those six games, posting a 1.15 goals-against average and one shutout. Pretty incredible stats. Still, the Wild are in hunt for the Northwest division title and with all the travel SJ had to endure in recent days, combined with a possible letdown following an end of a huge winning streak, I think the Wild will step up in this one. They have just beaten one of THREE other contenders for the NW division title, the Avs (3:1).
The two teams met on March 9th, SJ took the early lead but needed OT to solve the game. I expect a similar game here with Minnesota possibly leading the way and winning in the end.
Minnesota Wild ML (2.46 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
A value bet at it's finest. The Red Wings have a monster Wednesday record (47-6-1 in their last 54 Wednesday games), but I do not take such trends as seriously. The fact is, they have been winning and no one can dispute that. However, situationally, this does not translate to a 75-25 game as the odds suggest. I would actually give more than 35% chances to the Jackets to end up on the winning end.
Whilst it is true they basically have 'nothing' to play for as far as postseason is concerned, neither have the Red Wings, as they have clinched playoff berth already. They're definitely not in a good period. Even though they managed to end their horrid run with 4 wins, they have again dropped two straight, against Nashville and at Columbus, 4:3. The Jackets seem to be fired up about Rick Nash and his newly appointed captaincy.
The Jackets have also broken their franchise record as far as points won in regular season is concerned. They will probably face a TON of shots again tonight, but the thing is, the Red Wings D does not look good right now, plus they're giving up first goals way too easily. Hasek allowed four goals on 10 shots against CLB in his first game since defeating Nashville on March 9. Osgood (seven saves) replaced Hasek after Zherdev gave Columbus a 4-1 lead at 11:54 of the second period. The Jackets have won three in a row against Detroit. I know what you're thinking. The Red Wings do not forget that. I agree. However, I don't think they would break their arms and legs if they lost another game here, they've had so many successful regular season campaigns in the past few years and so few appearances in the finals. They are focused on the cup, beating the Jackets may or may not occur. As I said, the Wings are still the favs here, just not as huge as the oddsmakers would suggest.
Columbus Blue Jackets ML (3.75 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Best of luck everyone. :cheers:
The point of this small rant is that even with my limited plays approach, there are days which represent a better opportunity investment wise, and I believe we are heading into one tonight.
The Canes are playing well in the past few weeks, their main goal is to hang on to another division title. I still think they won't be overtaken at the top, simply looking at the other teams schedules and trying to foresee what will happen within the next few weeks, I believe Carolina will see postseason. However, dismissing their divisional opponents during the remaining clashes is a must. Even the bottom feeders Thrashers. The Thrashers are 2-9-4 since February 15th and have scored 4 goals in last 3 games.
The game before that, they posted a come-from-behind win over Calgary, after 0:3 they raced back and won the game 6:4. I do not see this happening tonight. The Canes are a high octane team, they rarely get outshot, and it will be tough for Atlanta to cope with pressure from the blueline. The Canes just beat Ottawa 5:1, in a game which was all Canes after the initial goal scored by the Sens. They had plenty of rest since, and are now looking to thump the Thrashers before clashing with Florida and Washington. After that they'll face Atlanta once more. This is a road dominated series, and mostly by Carolina as well.
# Hurricanes are 16-5-3 in the last 24 meetings in Atlanta.
# Hurricanes are 30-14-4 in the last 48 meetings.
# Road team is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
One more thing which shouldn't be disregarded. The Thrashers are playing the 2nd of a b2b game, following a 3:2 loss in Philadelphia. I simply don't believe they can play a tight game again, even more if we know the Thrashers are 8-20 in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.
Most of what I've written is already included in the price tag, making the ML play quite chalky. The puckline is of course a riskier option, but I believe the Canes will solve this one early, and Atlanta won't have the firepower to bounce back, as their scoring slumps have been quite frequent of late. According to my estimations this warrants a high stake bet right here.
Carolina Hurricanes (-1,5) (2.74 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
Had this bet "bubbling under the surface" as BC would put it for a while now. The Sharks are coming off an 11 game winning streak which was interrupted with the loss against Edmonton. Two days later they beat LA whilst getting outshot, but Brian Boucher hung on to a win. Nabokov will be back in net tonight but I'm still liking Minnesota here, a lot. The Sharks are one of the main Cup contenders if you ask me, they've got everything. Very balanced lines, performing special units, a great goalie. However, I believe this isn't a good spot for them. The biggest streak in franchise history was interrupted, then they just barely hopped on to the winning bandwagon against a team that never should have been a real challenge.
Tonight they're meeting a team that will be. However, the Sharks have won six straight against the Wild, including all three meetings this season. Nabokov has been in net for each of those six games, posting a 1.15 goals-against average and one shutout. Pretty incredible stats. Still, the Wild are in hunt for the Northwest division title and with all the travel SJ had to endure in recent days, combined with a possible letdown following an end of a huge winning streak, I think the Wild will step up in this one. They have just beaten one of THREE other contenders for the NW division title, the Avs (3:1).
The two teams met on March 9th, SJ took the early lead but needed OT to solve the game. I expect a similar game here with Minnesota possibly leading the way and winning in the end.
Minnesota Wild ML (2.46 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
A value bet at it's finest. The Red Wings have a monster Wednesday record (47-6-1 in their last 54 Wednesday games), but I do not take such trends as seriously. The fact is, they have been winning and no one can dispute that. However, situationally, this does not translate to a 75-25 game as the odds suggest. I would actually give more than 35% chances to the Jackets to end up on the winning end.
Whilst it is true they basically have 'nothing' to play for as far as postseason is concerned, neither have the Red Wings, as they have clinched playoff berth already. They're definitely not in a good period. Even though they managed to end their horrid run with 4 wins, they have again dropped two straight, against Nashville and at Columbus, 4:3. The Jackets seem to be fired up about Rick Nash and his newly appointed captaincy.
The Jackets have also broken their franchise record as far as points won in regular season is concerned. They will probably face a TON of shots again tonight, but the thing is, the Red Wings D does not look good right now, plus they're giving up first goals way too easily. Hasek allowed four goals on 10 shots against CLB in his first game since defeating Nashville on March 9. Osgood (seven saves) replaced Hasek after Zherdev gave Columbus a 4-1 lead at 11:54 of the second period. The Jackets have won three in a row against Detroit. I know what you're thinking. The Red Wings do not forget that. I agree. However, I don't think they would break their arms and legs if they lost another game here, they've had so many successful regular season campaigns in the past few years and so few appearances in the finals. They are focused on the cup, beating the Jackets may or may not occur. As I said, the Wings are still the favs here, just not as huge as the oddsmakers would suggest.
Columbus Blue Jackets ML (3.75 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Best of luck everyone. :cheers:
