Satyr
Paster of Muppets
After having a losing night for the first time since NHL season started (have in mind I skipped the first 10 days of the season betting wise in order to see how teams play and to get a hold on the things a bit), let's try to bounce back tonight. A couple of plays I really like tonight.
Flyers (-1,5) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Philly playing well, Atlanta lacking any kind of chemistry. They got it going last time against NJ but still lost in the end. Hossa will return tonight but I'm not sure if he'll be able to make an immediate impact, this team is really struggling on the powerplay and defensively (8 goals scored, 23 allowed this season partially tells the story, their actual game (which has been lackluster) tells the other part).
The Flyers know there's still a ton of work in front of them: their new signings Briere and Smith already sparked the team both up front and in the D.
Briere leads the team with four goals and seven points, and Smith scored his first goal, an empty-netter, against the Islanders after blocking a shot in the final seconds.
Not many teams have such domination as Philly has established against Atlanta in recent years. Thrashers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. and 3-21-2 in the last 26 meetings between the teams. Talking about domination...
Also have in mind, Atlanta won their division last year and Philly were one of the worst teams in hockey, and the Flyers still beat them regardlessly.
I'm not convinced in Thrashers abilities to win a game, to close out on their opponent (they had a 4-2 lead against NJ and at home, still lost).
Every possible aspect of the season so far (defense, offense, overall chemistry, goalies, trends, h2h) goes in favor of the Phillies here, and I tend not to complicate things at this point, even though it's evident Atlanta won't lose all of their games this year.
I find these odds worth backing and am going in with 7 units.
Colorado - Calgary over 5.5 (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Avalanche -1,5 (2.95 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Frankly, I don't care if this could be one of those "Vegas traps", as I am a firm believer in capping and using game elements to create edges. Whether the line is 5.5 or 6.0, of course the oddsmakers know best, but I have to play this one solely based on recent teams' meetings and the way these guys play. Calgary picked up their game and they will have plenty of scoring chances against a team like the Avs. Colorado isn't Dallas, you won't have a defensive clash with them, their biggest strength is creating an offensive swing, using several of their talented guys like Stastny and Sakic.
*Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
*Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Colorado
*Calgary have exceeded the 5.5 goal margin in 3 times out of 5 this season, same as Colorado.
Some very heavy trends and stats supporting home win here (some of these trends are rather insignificant in my eyes, but I'll still list them):
*The Avalanche are 3-0-0 at the Pepsi Center this season, where they've outscored opponents 15-6.
*Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Flames are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.
*Flames are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
*Flames are 4-11 in their last 15 overall.
*Flames are 2-6 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
*Flames are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Flames are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Northwest.
*Flames are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
*Flames are 16-37 in their last 53 road games. Flames are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. Western Conference.
*Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Northwest.
*Avalanche are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
*Avalanche are 20-7 in their last 27 Tuesday games. Avalanche are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. Western Conference.
*Avalanche are 13-6 in their last 19 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Leaning Montreal as well but will probably leave it alone. GL :cheers: :shake:
Flyers (-1,5) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Philly playing well, Atlanta lacking any kind of chemistry. They got it going last time against NJ but still lost in the end. Hossa will return tonight but I'm not sure if he'll be able to make an immediate impact, this team is really struggling on the powerplay and defensively (8 goals scored, 23 allowed this season partially tells the story, their actual game (which has been lackluster) tells the other part).
The Flyers know there's still a ton of work in front of them: their new signings Briere and Smith already sparked the team both up front and in the D.
Briere leads the team with four goals and seven points, and Smith scored his first goal, an empty-netter, against the Islanders after blocking a shot in the final seconds.
Not many teams have such domination as Philly has established against Atlanta in recent years. Thrashers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. and 3-21-2 in the last 26 meetings between the teams. Talking about domination...
Also have in mind, Atlanta won their division last year and Philly were one of the worst teams in hockey, and the Flyers still beat them regardlessly.
I'm not convinced in Thrashers abilities to win a game, to close out on their opponent (they had a 4-2 lead against NJ and at home, still lost).
Every possible aspect of the season so far (defense, offense, overall chemistry, goalies, trends, h2h) goes in favor of the Phillies here, and I tend not to complicate things at this point, even though it's evident Atlanta won't lose all of their games this year.
I find these odds worth backing and am going in with 7 units.
Colorado - Calgary over 5.5 (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Avalanche -1,5 (2.95 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Frankly, I don't care if this could be one of those "Vegas traps", as I am a firm believer in capping and using game elements to create edges. Whether the line is 5.5 or 6.0, of course the oddsmakers know best, but I have to play this one solely based on recent teams' meetings and the way these guys play. Calgary picked up their game and they will have plenty of scoring chances against a team like the Avs. Colorado isn't Dallas, you won't have a defensive clash with them, their biggest strength is creating an offensive swing, using several of their talented guys like Stastny and Sakic.
*Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
*Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Colorado
*Calgary have exceeded the 5.5 goal margin in 3 times out of 5 this season, same as Colorado.
Some very heavy trends and stats supporting home win here (some of these trends are rather insignificant in my eyes, but I'll still list them):
*The Avalanche are 3-0-0 at the Pepsi Center this season, where they've outscored opponents 15-6.
*Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Flames are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.
*Flames are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
*Flames are 4-11 in their last 15 overall.
*Flames are 2-6 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
*Flames are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Flames are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Northwest.
*Flames are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
*Flames are 16-37 in their last 53 road games. Flames are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. Western Conference.
*Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Northwest.
*Avalanche are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
*Avalanche are 20-7 in their last 27 Tuesday games. Avalanche are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. Western Conference.
*Avalanche are 13-6 in their last 19 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Leaning Montreal as well but will probably leave it alone. GL :cheers: :shake:
