Satyr
Paster of Muppets
It's early morning here, I'm capping games since I have a lot of time now as opposed to later, when I won't have nearly as much, so for once you're going to get early plays and thoughts from me.
Some of these were stats/thoughts/facts I came across while capping. That will display a small portion of how I cap games. Hope you will find it useful, feel free to post any kind of feedback, being positive or negative.
Pittsburgh - Toronto
First thing I noticed here is that the total is fishy, it's basically 7 at pk, or at Pinnacle (they move only odds, not margins), over 6.5 pays 1.75. Too chalky, and in my book, not playable. First of, if I ever take 1.75 on a total it means it's a very low total, typically 5. But these lines JUST opened not long ago and the odds are already set in this way. Two things:
Early action or the bookies set it this way on purpose.
I'd go with the 2nd option. Buyer beware.
Everyone expecting the over. Well between these two teams, the goal total has exceeded this margin in 4 out of last 5 times.
Which is encouraging for over backers. Want more?
One thing is certain though: the over here will be a popular choice, but smart cappers will lay it off. I know, these two teams have considerable firepower, but I don't like three things here:
As far as sides are concerned, do you really want to lay this amount of chalk on the home team? Or perhaps try a wild shot in the dark with a highly unreliable team in general, let alone on the road? One of them has to win, what I expect here is a low scoring home win, 2,3-1,2. I rarely back the under but this time it's definitely a play. Fading the most obvious, fading the public, fading the bad line...and loving the situational aspect.
PLAY(S): Under 6.5 goals (2.22 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
New York Rangers - New Jersey Devils
The Devils are still on the road, due to the fact their Arena isn't ready. However, look at it more closely. Are they really on the road in the classic term of "road"?
At first it was tough, lots of traveling, but since the 18th, they've been to Philly, then two days after in NY to play the Islanders (basically home), and now they've had 5 days to rest.
After 5 days of eating home cooking they're traveling - not that far. Only to Madison Square Garden, to meet the Rangers.
Yes, the slumping Rangers. Devils beat Florida, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Hardly top class teams, but you have to give them SOME credit, they've been on the road for so long. It's obvious by now they don't have their trademark defense any more, we all remember the days with Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer and Rafalski, and Lemaire's neutral zone trap (it was invented before some of these players, but these guys put it into practice and took advantage of it). Brodeur is so talented he can be the third defenseman at times, passing the puck up front and finding open skaters.
Now it's only Brodeur. Others are either playing for another NHL teams or have retired.
They also gave Scott Gomez away, a veteran by now, and to the New York Rangers of all teams. But this new connection Drury-Gomez isn't working yet, and Jagr isn't as dominant as he used to be. He is still incredibly talented, one and only, but he's not the player he once was. He has only scored 1 goal in 8 matches, which marks his WORST season start ever.
Team chemistry is VERY poor. So far they've beaten only the Panthers and the Capitals. What a coincidence, the same two teams NJ beat. Rangers however, failed to beat Pittsburgh. What's the difference then? Rangers played THREE home games so far, winning two of them (Florida, Washington), dropping the one against Ottawa.
We've seen two nights ago how Edmonton's 2-1 record didn't mean anything when they came across a team which did only one thing better than they did, and that's scoring. Also Peter Budaj was great, but the fact remains the Oil are horrendous from the powerplay and find it difficult to find gaps in opponent's defense even when the opponent is shorthanded.
I would still rate NJ slightly above NYR judging by their performances so far. Not much, but slightly.
Now, we're coming to the crucial stat: the Devils LOVE playing in Madison Square Garden and against the Rangers in general, and are 13-7 in last 20 games against them. That's not as important. But the fact the Rangers have scored league low 13 goals, and the Devils not being in a classical road spot, I do not rate this game as a 59-41 game in favor of the Rangers, my projection would be near the 50-50 mark. Because these two teams are nearly as good? Nearly as bad would be more accurate perhaps. The value is on the Devils.
PLAY(S): Devils ML (2.37 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Tampa Bay - Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Flyers finally - flew down from cloud nine. And what a painful landing it was. After falling behind 2-0 early to the Panthers, they managed to get back on only 10 shots (Panthers had 18 by that point), but Florida turned it up a notch and still won the game.
After Jay Bouwmeester's high hit, Simon Gagne left the game due to dizziness. He will be evaluated today for a possible concussion.
Philly.com reports:
The Flyers looked sluggish all night, including goalie Martin Biron.
And I say: it's no wonder. Biron has been phenomenal since the season has started, and a couple of games that Flyers ended up winning wouldn't have been wins had it not been for the excellence of Biron between the pipes. He was the best antidote for any kind of pressure from the opposing team, and after the team lowered their guard, the Flyers would start pouring goals in.
But it's a different story now isn't it? They're on the road again. They've opened the season on the road, went 2-1, beat Calgary and Vancouver (that 8-2 game) and lost to the Oilers (!) (not sure even the Thrashers are weaker than the Oilers)...then they won 4 straight at home and marked their best season start since 2002/2003.
But they're hitting the road and it's a different issue now, their chemistry has faded and they need to reinvent themselves. Not completely, since they're obviously doing something right (a lot of things I would say) but they can't ride the same wave any more.
And usually with teams in such spots, they feel a little bit of saturation after all these wins, comeback wins, dominating wins, any kind of wins.
They will still play good hockey, but I am counting on them to be less impressive during their road trip.
Who are they playing against? The Bolts. Some facts:
PLAY(S): Lightning ML (1.83 @ Pinnacle) 10 units
Other plays I considered (leans):
Nashville-Atlanta over 6. A lot of their totals landed on the spot (6) and frankly I'm not that interested in betting the game between two possibly the worst teams in the NHL.
Columbus I won't touch for a while. They manage to disappoint whenever they were expected to step up and vice versa.
Considered them over the Blues.
Anaheim should trash Phoenix who are rather lost, but I have this weird feeling this is a no bet game. Also, recent games show a lot of 1 goal games.
Small lean on the Blackhawks at this price but I won't bet it, too iffy to put it that way. I would however expect Chicago to either win this one or stay close. I still do not find the odds worth backing.
The Stars are favored in Los Angeles. Perhaps small value on Los Angeles here, as the Stars won't be able to engage into a high scoring game if needed, their cannons are still cold.
Anyways, that's it from me for Thursday. Feel free to comment. Good luck guys. :shake: :cheers:
Some of these were stats/thoughts/facts I came across while capping. That will display a small portion of how I cap games. Hope you will find it useful, feel free to post any kind of feedback, being positive or negative.
Pittsburgh - Toronto
First thing I noticed here is that the total is fishy, it's basically 7 at pk, or at Pinnacle (they move only odds, not margins), over 6.5 pays 1.75. Too chalky, and in my book, not playable. First of, if I ever take 1.75 on a total it means it's a very low total, typically 5. But these lines JUST opened not long ago and the odds are already set in this way. Two things:
Early action or the bookies set it this way on purpose.
I'd go with the 2nd option. Buyer beware.
Everyone expecting the over. Well between these two teams, the goal total has exceeded this margin in 4 out of last 5 times.
Which is encouraging for over backers. Want more?
- The Leafs are 8-2 on O/U this season (80%), all 8 times the margin exceeded 6.5 goals, even though not every time was it the actual margin.
They only stayed under the total against the Senators and the Panthers.
- Pittsburgh however, despite being processed as a "classic" over prone goal scoring machine team (due to their immense talent up front), they are "only" 4-4 as far as 6.5 is concerned (all their overs went way over (9, 10, 9, 7) and their unders stayed under (5, 5, 3 and 1, the last two (bolded) coming from their last two games, both wins (away against Washington (2-1) and at home against the Rangers (1-0)).
Whether their defense is improving or not, it is hard to say, but it's a possibility that they have tweaked it and is now functioning way better.
One thing is certain though: the over here will be a popular choice, but smart cappers will lay it off. I know, these two teams have considerable firepower, but I don't like three things here:
- Way too chalky (it's basically a 7 goal margin @ pk, which is too high)
- Pittsburgh coming off two consecutive mega-unders, BOTH WINS (could be indicative of how their game is developing)
- Toronto have played 7 home games since October 6th, and only one road game (in Buffalo), now they're hitting the road for 3 days and will play 2 games during that period. It's a home-road switch despite NOT being b2b, and their 80% of overs is more than just peculiarity, despite their offensive mindset and terrible D, I would still call it an aberration.
As far as sides are concerned, do you really want to lay this amount of chalk on the home team? Or perhaps try a wild shot in the dark with a highly unreliable team in general, let alone on the road? One of them has to win, what I expect here is a low scoring home win, 2,3-1,2. I rarely back the under but this time it's definitely a play. Fading the most obvious, fading the public, fading the bad line...and loving the situational aspect.
PLAY(S): Under 6.5 goals (2.22 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
New York Rangers - New Jersey Devils
The Devils are still on the road, due to the fact their Arena isn't ready. However, look at it more closely. Are they really on the road in the classic term of "road"?
At first it was tough, lots of traveling, but since the 18th, they've been to Philly, then two days after in NY to play the Islanders (basically home), and now they've had 5 days to rest.
After 5 days of eating home cooking they're traveling - not that far. Only to Madison Square Garden, to meet the Rangers.
Yes, the slumping Rangers. Devils beat Florida, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Hardly top class teams, but you have to give them SOME credit, they've been on the road for so long. It's obvious by now they don't have their trademark defense any more, we all remember the days with Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer and Rafalski, and Lemaire's neutral zone trap (it was invented before some of these players, but these guys put it into practice and took advantage of it). Brodeur is so talented he can be the third defenseman at times, passing the puck up front and finding open skaters.
Now it's only Brodeur. Others are either playing for another NHL teams or have retired.
They also gave Scott Gomez away, a veteran by now, and to the New York Rangers of all teams. But this new connection Drury-Gomez isn't working yet, and Jagr isn't as dominant as he used to be. He is still incredibly talented, one and only, but he's not the player he once was. He has only scored 1 goal in 8 matches, which marks his WORST season start ever.
Team chemistry is VERY poor. So far they've beaten only the Panthers and the Capitals. What a coincidence, the same two teams NJ beat. Rangers however, failed to beat Pittsburgh. What's the difference then? Rangers played THREE home games so far, winning two of them (Florida, Washington), dropping the one against Ottawa.
We've seen two nights ago how Edmonton's 2-1 record didn't mean anything when they came across a team which did only one thing better than they did, and that's scoring. Also Peter Budaj was great, but the fact remains the Oil are horrendous from the powerplay and find it difficult to find gaps in opponent's defense even when the opponent is shorthanded.
I would still rate NJ slightly above NYR judging by their performances so far. Not much, but slightly.
Now, we're coming to the crucial stat: the Devils LOVE playing in Madison Square Garden and against the Rangers in general, and are 13-7 in last 20 games against them. That's not as important. But the fact the Rangers have scored league low 13 goals, and the Devils not being in a classical road spot, I do not rate this game as a 59-41 game in favor of the Rangers, my projection would be near the 50-50 mark. Because these two teams are nearly as good? Nearly as bad would be more accurate perhaps. The value is on the Devils.
PLAY(S): Devils ML (2.37 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Tampa Bay - Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Flyers finally - flew down from cloud nine. And what a painful landing it was. After falling behind 2-0 early to the Panthers, they managed to get back on only 10 shots (Panthers had 18 by that point), but Florida turned it up a notch and still won the game.
After Jay Bouwmeester's high hit, Simon Gagne left the game due to dizziness. He will be evaluated today for a possible concussion.
Philly.com reports:
The Flyers looked sluggish all night, including goalie Martin Biron.
And I say: it's no wonder. Biron has been phenomenal since the season has started, and a couple of games that Flyers ended up winning wouldn't have been wins had it not been for the excellence of Biron between the pipes. He was the best antidote for any kind of pressure from the opposing team, and after the team lowered their guard, the Flyers would start pouring goals in.
But it's a different story now isn't it? They're on the road again. They've opened the season on the road, went 2-1, beat Calgary and Vancouver (that 8-2 game) and lost to the Oilers (!) (not sure even the Thrashers are weaker than the Oilers)...then they won 4 straight at home and marked their best season start since 2002/2003.
But they're hitting the road and it's a different issue now, their chemistry has faded and they need to reinvent themselves. Not completely, since they're obviously doing something right (a lot of things I would say) but they can't ride the same wave any more.
And usually with teams in such spots, they feel a little bit of saturation after all these wins, comeback wins, dominating wins, any kind of wins.
They will still play good hockey, but I am counting on them to be less impressive during their road trip.
Who are they playing against? The Bolts. Some facts:
- Both teams are back to back, the difference being, the Bolts are in a road-home switch, and the Flyers are on the road, after a lackluster game against a worse team than they'll be facing tonight.
- Neither Tampa Bay nor Philadelphia have played b2b games so far this season. Advantage home team.
- Tampa Bay have won their 4 home games this season clean off, 4 games, 4 regulation wins, outscoring the opposition by 16 to 6 (NJ, ATL, FLA, ATL), not the strongest teams around, but the Bolts still did it in a convincing fashion.
- Tampa Bay are 7-1 in last 8 games against Philadelphia, outscoring them 37-17. Might not be important to dig too much in the past, as those were different teams and different situations, but it is highly indicative that Philadephia rarely beats the Bolts.
- Tampa Bay played a tough divisional match against the Capitals in Washington prior to tonight's clash, and lost after controlling a large chunk of 1st period and a part of 2nd. However at one point of the game their goalie Marc Denis became really insecure and allowed two goals, Tampa could only cut the lead to one, before allowing an empty netter with less than 10 seconds to play.
This is a small downside of the bet, the fact they played a fierce division rival prior to tonight's clash, but that downside is canceled by the fact Johan Holmqvist (4-1-0, 89% sv pct, 2.61 GAA) is expected to be in the net tonight.
PLAY(S): Lightning ML (1.83 @ Pinnacle) 10 units
Other plays I considered (leans):
Nashville-Atlanta over 6. A lot of their totals landed on the spot (6) and frankly I'm not that interested in betting the game between two possibly the worst teams in the NHL.
Columbus I won't touch for a while. They manage to disappoint whenever they were expected to step up and vice versa.
Considered them over the Blues.
Anaheim should trash Phoenix who are rather lost, but I have this weird feeling this is a no bet game. Also, recent games show a lot of 1 goal games.
Small lean on the Blackhawks at this price but I won't bet it, too iffy to put it that way. I would however expect Chicago to either win this one or stay close. I still do not find the odds worth backing.
The Stars are favored in Los Angeles. Perhaps small value on Los Angeles here, as the Stars won't be able to engage into a high scoring game if needed, their cannons are still cold.
Anyways, that's it from me for Thursday. Feel free to comment. Good luck guys. :shake: :cheers:
.
, -1.7 units, -2-3 units, then having these +10,20, even 30 unit days, that's fine with me, all part of capping. I know I can improve my skills as time goes by, I am only 23 after all, I think I'll be better when I'm 30 or 40 
), these guys are something else. I'll hit my 53-57 and make a few hundred units...I'm fine with it :cheers: and I've been on betting forums long enough not to post to brag around. 
