NHL System 2008 by Uni

Unicorn

NHL Enthusiast
Hey everyone!

Some of you may remember me from MLB forum because that's the only forum I've been posting in since I've registered here ^^.

Back in 2004, I've created a NHL system which happened to be really successful - over the course of the season I've had several outstanding streaks, like those two mentioned down here (back then, I was posting my official plays at Covers and on some newsgroups):

(a 10-3 record over 2 days)
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?f885f106dc.jpg

(a 18-3 record over 3 days)
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?6417c5647c.jpg

Anyway, the system official record at the end of 2004 season was 112-56 (66.67%)!!!

Soon after the end of the season I went to an army and after I got back, I've almost completely lost interest in betting (I've been betting on all 4 major USA sports back then but had success only in MLB, NHL and to some point - NBA) so I've decided only to continue my MLB career as a capper.

Before the start of this NHL season, I've decided to try again my old NHL system. I knew many things have changed in League since 2004 so some adjustments had to be made. All I can tell - since the 2nd week of the season - the system has been on a roll, overall speaking. Still, unlike that awesome '04 year - I've noticed that system totals aren't being correctly adjusted so I've focused more on Straight Up choices.

To conclude this introduction part, I'll try to explain how my system actually works.

a) I call it a "bounce-back effect" system because it takes into account previous home/away/overall games and calculates the possible outcome in the next game, giving as result percentages and final numbers (OT included)

b) I've made a several sub-parts of the system, based on the predicted percentage - so called "passing records" and those are: 51-59.9%, 60-69.9%, 70-79.9%, 80-89.9% and >90%.

So far into the season, the records of these sub-parts are:

51-59.9%: 15-4 (78,95%)
60-69.9%: 6-11 (35,29%) - I usually fade this one to make money
70-79.9%: 3-3 (50,00%)
80-89.9%: 1-0 (100,00%)
>90%: 1-1 (50,00%)

It's obvious that the 1st sub-part is the main money maker while fading the 2nd one also helps - I'm eager to see if it will continue like that, long-term.

Ok, this was the introduction, sorry for the huge amount of text, but I usually like to explain myself correctly before starting something like this.

:cheers:
image.php
 
Monday System predictions

Predictions for Monday (27.10):

Ottawa
@ Buffalo
60,29% - predicted total: 6 to 7 goals
- possible plays: Ottawa, Over 5.5

NY Rangers 61,74% - predicted total: 5 to 6 goals
@ NY Islanders
- possible play: NY Islanders

Anaheim
@ Columbus
60,11% - predicted total: 6 goals
- possible play: Anaheim, Over 5.5

Chicago
@ Minnesota
51,06% - predicted total: 4 to 5 goals
- probable play: Minnesota, Under 5.5/6

Boston
@ Edmonton
85,19% - predicted total: 2 to 3 goals
- possible play: Edmonton, Under 5.5/6

Detroit
@ Los Angeles
59,88% - predicted total: 3 to 5 goals
- possible play: Los Angeles, Under 5.5/6


So far it seems like Minnesota may be the only system play for tomorrow, but it will depend on the price. Also may play a few totals along with it (Edmonton Under, LA Under, Buffalo Over). The possible play on LA is very close to the 60% so I may or may not play it - depends on the price, I guess.

I'll update this post tomorrow after the lines are adjusted.
 
You say the totals aren't predicting correctly and you are focusing on straight up plays....why all the totals predictions then?
 
Matteson, the totals aren't lining up correctly because of the rule changes since 2004, I believe.
 
I hope you keep posting these each day. I'd like to see them as a comparison. I've been working on a spreadsheet for NHL. Mine is very new, just a week old, but so far so good. This would be a good second tool to help figure out where I may have some sections wrong.
Mine are just moneyline.
Mine likes Boston as an underdog tomorrow for instance. I don't have a lot of history yet, so I'm playing mine cautiously for now.
Tomorrow I'm playing Boston, Minnesota, Detroit, and maybe NY Rangers if the line posts at under -150.

I don't want to hijack your thread with my own stuff so I won't post my data. If anyone wants it PM me.
 
matteson83 - I'll post totals along with SU plays just for tracking purposes. As Satyr said - the totals might be little screwed because the rules have changed since '04, although in some situations the totals may turn out exactly as predicted.

TexasKevin - don't worry m8, I'll post system plays every day. The whole purpose of this is that we're all here to try to help each other. I could easily just not post anything on this or any other site and keep the results for myself and myself only but that's not how I want it to be. If something might help us win some $$$ then why keep it for yourself only?

Satyr - thnx bro'

catfood - good job so far, I see you've had excellent last season in NHL, hopefully you'll have another successful one!
 
System plays for Monday (for tracking purposes):

SU plays: Buffalo, NY Rangers, Columbus, Minnesota, Edmonton, Los Angeles
OU plays: Buf/Ott Over 5.5, Col/Ana Over 5.5, Min/Chi Under 5.5, Edm/Bos Under 5.5, LA/Det Under 5.5

So, just for clarification - these plays are only for tracking purposes because I want to see how the system will perform on daily basis, these are not my personal plays for Monday - those will be posted as soon as the lines come out and will be separately tracked from the system-default ones.
 
My personal and final plays for Monday, 27.10:

Ottawa @ 2.00 - 1.25 Units

Buff/Ott Over 6
@ 2.80 - 0.55 Units

NY Islanders
@ 2.06 - 1.25 Units

Minnesota
@ 1.65 - 2.5 Units

LA/Det Under 6
@ 1.95 - 0.75 Units


Good luck everyone!

:cheers:
 
gl uni with the system

For those that didnt read his mlb stuff , it was nothing short of spectacular.

have a great season.
 
51-59.9%: 15-4 (78,95%)
60-69.9%: 6-11 (35,29%) - I usually fade this one to make money
70-79.9%: 3-3 (50,00%)
80-89.9%: 1-0 (100,00%)
>90%: 1-1 (50,00%)

Outcome vs predicted should match. This is very likely just random luck of a small sample. Good luck tho.
 
I pulled out of the Edmonton game too, Roloson, I was leaning on the under too. Good luck with your plays tonight.
 
System plays for Monday (for tracking purposes):

SU plays: Buffalo, NY Rangers, Columbus, Minnesota, Edmonton, Los Angeles
OU plays: Buf/Ott Over 5.5, Col/Ana Over 5.5, Min/Chi Under 5.5, Edm/Bos Under 5.5, LA/Det Under 5.5

Results UPDATE 28.10:

SU plays: 28-23 (54,90%)
51-59.9%: 16-5 (76,19%)
60-69.9%: 7-13 (
35,00%)
70-79.9%: 3-3 (50,00%)
80-89.9%: 1-1 (100,00%)
>90%: 1-1 (50,00%)


Totals: 3-2 (60,00%)
 
My personal and final plays for Monday, 27.10:

Ottawa @ 2.00 - 1.25 Units WON

Buff/Ott Over 6
@ 2.80 - 0.55 Units WON

NY Islanders
@ 2.06 - 1.25 Units LOST

Minnesota
@ 1.65 - 2.5 Units WON

LA/Det Under 6
@ 1.95 - 0.75 Units LOST

Posted plays record:

Overall: 3-2, +1.87 Units
Sides: 2-1, +1.63 Units
Totals: 1-1, +0.24 Units
 
Tuesday 28.10 system plays

Predictions and system plays for Tuesday (28.10):

Nashville
@ Washington
69,06% - predicted total: 4 to 5 goals
-> system plays: Washington, Under 5.5

Philadelphia
@ Atlanta
57,99% - predicted total: 7 goals
-> system plays: Atlanta, Over 5.5

Carolina
@ Montreal
87,66% - predicted total: 3 to 4 goals
-> system plays: Montreal, Under 5.5

Tampa Bay 68,57% - predicted total: 5 to 6 goals
@ Toronto

-> system play: Tampa Bay

Colorado 58,20% - predicted total: 9 goals
@ Calgary
-> system plays: Colorado, Over 5.5

Boston
@ Vancouver 57,93% - predicted total: 7 goals
-> system plays: Vancouver, Over 5.5

Pittsburgh 58,22% - predicted total: 7 to 8 goals
@ San Jose
-> system plays: Pittsburgh, Over 5.5
 
My personal plays for Tuesday, 28.10:

Vancouver ML @ 1.70 - 2.5 Units

Nashville ML @ 2.15 - 1.25 Units

Atl/Phi Over 6.5 @ 2.40 - 0.55 Units

Toronto -0.5 @ 2.20 - 0.75 Units

Mon/Car Under 5.5 @ 2.10 - 0.75 Units

Colorado ML @ 1.90 - 2 Units
Cal/Col Over 6.5 @ 2.35 - 0.55 Units

Pittsburgh ML @ 2.10 - 2.5 Units

A bunch of plays for tonight, hopefully it turns out to be a solid night.

Good luck everyone!

:cheers:
 
Predictions and system plays for Tuesday (28.10):

-> system plays: Washington, Under 5.5
-> system plays: Atlanta, Over 5.5
-> system plays: Montreal, Under 5.5
-> system play: Tampa Bay
-> system plays: Colorado, Over 5.5
-> system plays: Vancouver, Over 5.5
-> system plays: Pittsburgh, Over 5.5

Results UPDATE 29.10:

SU plays: 31-27 (53,45%)
51-59.9%: 16-9 (64,00%)
60-69.9%: 9-13 (
40,00%)
70-79.9%: 3-3 (50,00%)
80-89.9%: 2-1 (66,67%)
>90%: 1-1 (50,00%)


Totals: 5-6 (45,45%)
 
My personal plays for Tuesday, 28.10:

Vancouver ML @ 1.70 - 2.5 Units LOST
Nashville ML @ 2.15 - 1.25 Units LOST
Atl/Phi Over 6.5 @ 2.40 - 0.55 Units WON
Toronto -0.5 @ 2.20 - 0.75 Units LOST
Mon/Car Under 5.5 @ 2.10 - 0.75 Units WON
Colorado ML @ 1.90 - 2 Units LOST
Cal/Col Over 6.5 @ 2.35 - 0.55 Units LOST
Pittsburgh ML @ 2.10 - 2.5 Units LOST

Posted plays record:

Overall: 5-8, -6.09 Units
Sides: 2-6, -7.38 Units
Totals: 3-2, +1.29 Units

The best thing to do after a night like this is to forget it A.S.A.P. I should definitely tune a little my unit-per-play management a little...
 
Last edited:
Predictions and system plays for Wednesday (29.10):

Toronto
@ New Jersey
60,70% - predicted total: ~5 goals
-> system plays: New Jersey, Under 5.5

Minnesota 62,02% - predicted total: ~5 goals
@ Dallas
-> system plays: Minnesota, Under 5.5

Detroit 57,24% - predicted total: ~7 goals
@ Anaheim
-> system plays: Detroit, Over 5.5
 
Looking forward to tonight's card after that beating last night.

My personal plays for Wednesday, 29.10:

Detroit ML
@ 1.85 - 2 Units
Detroit -0.5 @ 2.38 - 1 Unit

Red Wings have been playing with confidence and winning games although they can play even better. Ducks have recovered from a 0-4 start by going 5-1 over their last 6 games but unfortunately most of those wins came on the road. At least they're now at .500 and I can see them going above that mark sooner or later. Still, since they've been struggling at home (1-3) I give advantage to Red Wings who've been perfect on the road so far.


Minnesota ML
@ 2.30 - 1.5 Units

This time, I'll go along with my system prediction. The Twins...erm.. the Wild ;) haven't lost so far in regulation and have been playing good defense. I know their history @ Dallas doesn't look good (0-4 over the last 3 seasons and only 3-10-1 since 1996) but I like them in this spot. They're playing confident while the Stars have been scoring in bunches but also taking goals at very high rate. And they're supposed to have one of the best defenses in the game, right? Until their defense start to click, I don't trust them, especially not against teams like Minnesota.


Good luck everyone!
 
System record update:
SU plays: 31-30 (50,82%)
51-59.9%: 16-10 (61,54%)
60-69.9%: 9-15 (
37,50%)
70-79.9%: 3-3 (50,00%)
80-89.9%: 2-1 (66,67%)
>90%: 1-1 (50,00%)

Totals: 6-8 (42,85%)

Personal record update:
Overall: 5-11, -10.59 Units
Sides: 2-9, -11.88 Units
Totals: 3-2, +1.29 Units

What can I say - when it rains, it pours... Hopefully this downtrend doesn't continue for longer than expected...
 
System plays for Thursday, 30.10:

Buffalo (85,71%) and Under 5.5 (3~3.5)
Atlanta (74,87%)
NY Islanders (71,96%) and Over 5.5 (6~7)
Florida (82,44%) and Under 5.5 (5)
Nashville (61,05%) and Over 5.5 (8~9)
Minnesota (52,25%) and Over 5.5 (6)
Carolina (57,97%) and Over 5.5 (6)
Colorado (72,04%) and Over 5.5 (7~7.5)
Boston (50,65%) and Over 5.5 (7)
Pittsburgh (54,00%)
Los Angeles (60,47%) and Over 5.5 (8~9)
Detroit (51,84%) and Over 5.5 (8)
 
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