NHL Playoffs

guaranteeed

guaranteeed

Pretty much a regular
Just starting a thread with some quick thoughts, looks like we start saturday in 1 division at least

Set matchups so far are

Bruins caps
Pens isles

Leafs habs
Oilers jets

Hurricanes preds
Panthers lightning

West is still up for grabs but will be

Golden knights v wild/blues
Avs v wild/blues


First glance is I'll be on whomever is playing the wild, hoping the odds arent too high as the wild are right now only 1 point behind the avs, but they have been the 'luckiest' team this season that's still in the playoffs. Their pdo is 102.7, and they get outshot most nights, they are a lot closer to st louis than the avs and vegas.

Other thing that sticks out is how much better taylor hall makes the bruins, hes a point per game guy since he went to buffalo, he and krejci have been on for only 1 goal against 5 on 5 since the trade and 16 for. Caps are really good too though so not sure on that series atm, but bruins went from a round 1 out to potential scf team.

Also on edmonton, as a team they arent great, they have no real depth in their bottom 6 or d, but mcdavid has been supernova for a month, he has 35 points in his last 12 games. In adjusted scoring for the modern, post original expansion, hes having the 7th best season ever, behind 5 Gretzky's and 2 lemieux. I think he can beat winnipeg on his own, but toronto and any further is gonna be hard, Matthew's has overtaken ovie as the best goal scorer in the league at this point, and just has way more talent around him.

Kucharov should be back for Tampa as well, so one of the leagues best teams adds back a top 5 player

Gonna look more this week on form and their numbers, but for right now I'd rank the 16 in these 6 tiers

Vegas
Colorado
Tampa

Toronto
Carolina

Florida
Boston
Caps

Pittsburgh
Edmonton

Canadiens
Islanders
Blues

Jets
Wild
 
-Tampa/Florida is going to be fireeeeeee...watch yesterday's replay. Tampa has confirmed Kuch and Stammer will be back for the playoffs and they have the best goalie in the league

-I agree with Teed, fade Minnesota. They have luckboxed a lot of wins and their advanced metrics don't really support their run. I think live odds right now have Tampa at 9.00 (Stanley cup champs, which is nice) on Pinny. Carolina is in better form, but I don't think they can sustain what they are doing right now. I really have a hard time believing Mrazek/Reimer can carry the load.

-leafs not making to the final four will be sad. There isn't anyone that should scare them; Jets are sputtering, yes McDavid is on fire but they've been able to contain him. Remember, you aren't stopping him and it's not about it, it's about limiting McDavid which Holl and team have done this year. Habs are habs, not enough scoring yet. Cole is a nice story though
 
also, don't forget that the cap is not in play during the playoffs. So the cap juggling Vegas had to do last night shouldn't apply as they had to dress a lot less players.

For the leafs in net, you go with Campbell until he loses and then give Freddy a shot. A la Washington 2018 with Grubauer and Holtby, just ride the hot hand until it cools off
 
I bet Boston +1500 a couple weeks ago.

Damn. I'd give Minnesota a shot over Colorado and was going to play it. Lol. I better reevaluate.

I was looking to fade Edmonton but damn Connor may just be good enough to carry them through a round.

Good thoughts, Teed and GSRO. Look forward to reading more.
 
Leafs/Habs the only team to get a back to back....not sure if the league will adjust this but I'm sure both teams will inquire.
 
If not for TB getting key players back I'd be all over the team who held their own, to say the least, against them this year.
1620947913045.png

I see no way the Habs make this a series, could be some value in Leafs -1.5.

Lean Penguins also but tough to get that sweep by NYI a couple years ago & last years beating by Habs out of my mind.
 
gsro said:
www.nhl.com

Carlson to play for Capitals against Bruins in Game 1 of playoffs | NHL.com

Defenseman practiced, recovered from lower-body injury; questions remain on Oshie, goalie
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
Click to expand...
As a Bruins fan I will say, Oh shit, to this. However I still don't think Ovechkin is 100% & the fact that Oshie & Kusnetsov seem doubtful gives me every reason to back the B's in game one. I won't lay the chalk on the entire series given the Caps will only get healthier presumably. But at full strength I think these teams are very evenly matched so at -115 I will fade a beat up Caps team for tomorrow.
 
So after a bigger look, I feel pretty confident in the tiers i had except the penguins who I would bump up to the next tier, they are deeper than i thought and still have sid, plus like Bdn and gsro mentioned above, they get the isles who are not what they were
 
guaranteeed said:
So after a bigger look, I feel pretty confident in the tiers i had except the penguins who I would bump up to the next tier, they are deeper than i thought and still have sid, plus like Bdn and gsro mentioned above, they get the isles who are not what they were
Click to expand...
They have a rested malkin as well. Since he was out with an injury for a good chunk of the season.
 
So for the weekend games

Saturday

Washington +110

Sunday
Pittsburgh -125
Florida +105

Series bets

Vegas/Colorado both to win -140
Vegas/Carolina both to win -115


Thoughts on the weekend games are mostly posted in the first post, the battle of Florida and the battle for chara series are both super close imo, so I'll take the home dogs to at least split. Pittsburgh is a big advantage over the islanders, unless there is a material change in the circumstances I'll take them every game they are this price at home.

Series bets are straight forward, most confident in vegas because of them playing minny

May add some more series bets tomorrow for the series that start Sunday and next week
 
guaranteeed said:
So for the weekend games

Saturday

Washington +110

Sunday
Pittsburgh -125
Florida +105

Series bets

Vegas/Colorado both to win -140
Vegas/Carolina both to win -115


Thoughts on the weekend games are mostly posted in the first post, the battle of Florida and the battle for chara series are both super close imo, so I'll take the home dogs to at least split. Pittsburgh is a big advantage over the islanders, unless there is a material change in the circumstances I'll take them every game they are this price at home.

Series bets are straight forward, most confident in vegas because of them playing minny

May add some more series bets tomorrow for the series that start Sunday and next week
Click to expand...
Goodluck sir
 
Going back to same 3 tomorrow, pitt and florida have to get better goaltending, I'd sit bobrovsky and go with the big D

Pitt -130
Florida +110
Vegas -160
 
For tomorrow

Pens -105
Florida +125
Vegas -115
Canadiens/Leafs o5.5 -110

Will also look at Matthews and huberdeau props, plus if I spot any others with good odds, but those two specifically, sog, goals
 
guaranteeed said:
For tomorrow

Pens -105
Florida +125
Vegas -115
Canadiens/Leafs o5.5 -110

Will also look at Matthews and huberdeau props, plus if I spot any others with good odds, but those two specifically, sog, goals
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Agree on the pens/knights

will look at first period over in the leafs game. Like where your heads at with the props as well. goodluck
 
Thanks guys, hoping vegas pulls it out for a winning night

Onto tomorrow now

Washington +150
Oilers -160
St.Louis +180

Caps and bruins have been pretty even throughout, bruins top line is dominating but caps depth is punishing their bottom 6, so at these odds I see value with caps, no cap

Oilers with a pretty pitiful effort wednesday, dont see coco allowing that again, he was scoring at an insane rate pre playoffs and gets shutout the other night, I'll pay this price to say the jets can't do it again in edmonton

Blues are just value based on the avs home/away splits, avs have a +8 gd away, compared to +35 at home. Also a super desperate blues team, with still the spine of a cup winner, I expect their best effort. Still think avs win this series in probably 5, but I'll take these odds in game 3 and if needed 4 that st louis doesnt get swept. No kadri for avs too with a suspension looming, one area vegas isnt super deep is at center, jost likely moves up, and hes just not as good as kadri, not close.
 
Lean Washington as well; will wait till tomorrow to see if anything changes.
 
Caps didn't show up, just haven't been able to match Bostons top guys, Marchand and hall have been best players on the ice.

Other 2 still goalless at the moment

Some early saturday starts though

Tampa -140
Pens isles u5.5 -130
Leafs -165

Nothing on vegas minny at moment, really like leafs tomorrow, JT being out shouldn't move that line by 40 cents, I think it's very short, may look more at 1st period plays or Matthews props, marner assist props as well
 
guaranteeed said:
Caps didn't show up, just haven't been able to match Bostons top guys, Marchand and hall have been best players on the ice.

Other 2 still goalless at the moment

Some early saturday starts though

Tampa -140
Pens isles u5.5 -130
Leafs -165

Nothing on vegas minny at moment, really like leafs tomorrow, JT being out shouldn't move that line by 40 cents, I think it's very short, may look more at 1st period plays or Matthews props, marner assist props as well
Click to expand...
Agree on Tampa, got that in a couple of days ago at-132; I will let the boston/washington series ride at this point no interest in losing more money on the sides in that series. Just hope they win game 5 and dhave a shot there after.

Still searching on Leaf props tonight, but I expect a real, real effort. Let's be real, the leafs gave that game away as opposed to being outplayed.
 
For sunday

Not touching caps or bruins again unless live most likely, caps top guys may be injured, because their depth guys are doing well, but their top 6 are struggling against every bruins line. Not gonna be able to best the bruins with the perfection line humming and hall playing his best hockey in years. Similar with blues avs, thought the blues would come back with a huge effort last night but they got outworked, no one outside maybe tampa or toronto is gonna beat Colorado if they dont outwork em, skill gap for everyone else is just too big. I think this blues team is done, maybe they were done last year after the Canucks beat em in the bubble, they still have a good team but they need some kind of shake up, could see a big trade from them this summer.

Carolina/Nashville u5.5 -120
Edmonton -130
 
guaranteeed said:
Caps didn't show up, just haven't been able to match Bostons top guys, Marchand and hall have been best players on the ice.

Other 2 still goalless at the moment

Some early saturday starts though

Tampa -140
Pens isles u5.5 -130
Leafs -165

Nothing on vegas minny at moment, really like leafs tomorrow, JT being out shouldn't move that line by 40 cents, I think it's very short, may look more at 1st period plays or Matthews props, marner assist props as well
Click to expand...
:whoohoo2:
 
Happy blues and caps are done, didnt want any more temptation. Bs and hopefully pens should be awesome, sid and bergy going h2h.

On to monday

Pitt -140
Florida -105

Waiting on goalie matchup in montreal, b2b there mon and tyes
 
Goodluck like Pitt myself, expect a ton of goals in Florida

keefe is non committal on his goalie tomorrow. My guess is, if they win tonight and Jack has a lot of work they may go to freddy
 
Already have two series bets on vegas to win posted above at -115 and -140, not gonna add or hedge anything, they've been better team by far in every game since game 1 which was relatively close. They are controlling the shots on net, twice in the series minnesota has gone 2 periods with less than 8 total shots. If they lose while controlling 70% of the play and having all the relevant game 7 experience than they do, still think anything under -210 is +ev

Only plays tonight

Mark stone o1.5 sog -150
Mark stone o1.5 goals +1100
Cam Talbot o30.5 saves -115

Talbot prop I think hits win or lose, it's my favorite prop so for of the playoffs

In the 3 games in vegas so far Talbot has faced 110 shots on net, that's 36.6 a game. I think they pepper him with shots early and often.

For saturday, have leafs -1.5 for the series which would need a win tomorrow, it's at-150 and they wre currently -200 so happy with the value I got, wont be hedging, but will be on some props most likely.

2500 fans in montreal are being allowed and I think I saw theres already tickets that have been bought resale for 16k for a pair, lowest priced right now available are 3k for a pair, I think they will be loud

First series of round 2 starts as well, no play right now but am looking at the under, bruins isles are more of a similar stylistic matchup, pens were wide open attacking, had to be with how bad jarry was, but the Bruins love a physical more low event type of game, it is one of their strengths.

I think isles will be able to slow the perfection line a bit, even if it's just slowing the pace a bit, limit rush chances, even if they dominate the scoring chances and shots like they did vs the caps, its gonna be much lower event hockey because isles will smother them defensively and not take chances vs them. Thay being said, I think boston does prevail in the series.
 
For Monday

Some fans in the building tonight

Matthews o4.5 shots -130
Nylander o2.5 shots -140
Matthews o2 goals +500
Marner o0.5 assists -160

Islanders +180
Barzal o2.5 shots +140
Hall o2.5 shots -115
 
guaranteeed said:
For Monday

Some fans in the building tonight

Matthews o4.5 shots -130
Nylander o2.5 shots -140
Matthews o2 goals +500
Marner o0.5 assists -160

Islanders +180
Barzal o2.5 shots +140
Hall o2.5 shots -115
Click to expand...
I’ll take the leafs prop sweep. Fingers crossed it works out tonight
 
Thoughts on WPG? I grabbed them too at -130 & a bit more this AM at -135 before it climbs too high. I haven't seen much of either teams' prior series but on the surface there's the rested team vs a 7-game series team, which worked well for COL in game 1. Not sure if either of these two teams moving forward was more due to hot goaltending, better all around play, or flat out collapse of the higher seeds. I thought the series price seemed a bit low also.
 
Zeke said:
Thoughts on WPG? I grabbed them too at -130 & a bit more this AM at -135 before it climbs too high. I haven't seen much of either teams' prior series but on the surface there's the rested team vs a 7-game series team, which worked well for COL in game 1. Not sure if either of these two teams moving forward was more due to hot goaltending, better all around play, or flat out collapse of the higher seeds. I thought the series price seemed a bit low also.
Click to expand...
Sorry I didnt see this before game started but was my thoughts as well, winnipeg was kinda banged up coming into playoffs, seemed to turn it around and with rest, plus the emotional montreal win Monday and the comedown following, I thought jets could steal game 1

All things equal they'd still probably be my pick to win the series, but the scheifle looming suspension is a big factor, outside the goalie hes by far their most important piece
 
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