NHL Playoffs

[guaranteeed]

Couple things to point out from the start

Here are the winners of all playoff series from 2008-2014 based on stats in the past 25 games of the season

points is just above 50%, goal differential is just above 60% but the highest factor is shot attempt for %, essentially one teams shots vs what they allow

For a bit more recent number over the last 3 seasons in the playoffs which is 48 series

Team with home ice 51%
Team with the better goalie save % is 58%
Score close Fenwick is at 73%

score close Fenwick for those that don't know is similar to Shot attempts for mentioned above but it excludes shots blocked and block shots, on the idea that they can be a skill

over the last 25 games here's where the playoff teams rank

I also included their scoring chance for % over the same window

[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col width="64" span="3" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]FF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]SCF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]LA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]57.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]PIT[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]57.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]SJ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]53.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]55.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]PHILLY[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]TB[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]52.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]ANA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]53.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]55.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]St.Louis[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]53.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]DET[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]Wash[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]52.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]FLA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]54.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]DAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]48.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]NASH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]53.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]MINN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]49.80%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]51.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47.10%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]45.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]NYR[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47.20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]NYI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]45.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[guaranteeed]

A couple notes on that

Dallas numbers include half those games without Seguin their 1C who probably finishes top 5 in the league in scoring if healthy and is skating and expect to play round 1

Anaheim has been crushing it ever since that bad first month of the season

There is really one elite goalie in the playoffs, his name is Henrik Lundqvist, those stats above about the teams with better possession winning games he is basically the outlier for, the Rangers are 6-3 over that time period and were the worst possession team in 8 of those series, he is for all intents and purposes the great equalizer

Chicago is not the powerhouse they have been in the past, they no longer have Patrick Sharp, Hossa is a shell of himself at this point and they are very top heavy with Kane/Panarin's line doing most of the scoring and Toews doing HEAVY lifting on the 2nd line with the wingers they give him. Depth could be a major issue

Florida was very reliant on Luongo early on but since the trade deadline have really improved their underlying numbers with a few moves

Washington's numbers dont look like a team that ran away with the presidents trophy, but it should be kept in mind they have clinched since essentially January

Tampa's coming in with the most injury issues, they will be without a top pairing d man in Stralman and their best player in Stamkos, they were already an average team when it came to goals and their whole PP is built around Stammer's shot just like the Caps with Ovechkins

 

[guaranteeed]

Game 1 bets so far

St.Louis -119
Philly +175
San Jose +125
Anaheim -150

 

[gsro]

really like philly, bol on the playoffs.

 

[HUNT]

Good stuff. Thanks teed.

 

[J Galt]

Love it teeed, although I think you are underselling Chi. Still have elite D and a goalie that knows how to win in the playoffs.

Given your thoughts on Henrik, I could see them stealing a game in Shittsburgh. The question is, will it be Game 1, which everyone is just assuming Pitt is going to win with how hot they've been at the end of the year?

 

[guaranteeed]

I might take closer to game time but I was hoping for a higher line, to me Wash/Philly should almost be a toss up and its 60 cents higher than Pitt and NYR

 

[guaranteeed]

2-1 +1.25 so far

Ducks still pending tonight

adding

St.Louis -114
Detroit +140

for tomorrow

Philly +205
NYR +151

 

[STEED]

:cheers: GL bruh

 

[Metallica]

GL today Bro
:shake:

 

[guaranteeed]

Friday

Philadelphia +205
LA Kings -125

 

[guaranteeed]

Saturday

Anaheim -150

 

[Timh]

Nice work, BOL the rest of the playoffs.

 

[guaranteeed]

thanks Tim

for Sunday

Philadelphia +157
Florida -105
Minnesota +115

 

[RetroVK]

Ducks skated well. good luck with the sunday slate