Satyr
Paster of Muppets
First of let me start with my NHL playoff betting psychology. Recent years have taught me not to directly project regular season trends, team strengths or momentum to the postseason.
The playoffs are a different animal, and we should treat it that way.
So here are my thoughts and bets:
EAST
Buffalo Sabres (1) - NY Islanders (8)
The most one sided series in my eyes. Di Pietro is bruised after a concussion, and the Isles are playing on fumes right now, following a dramatic effort to clinch postseason.
The Sabres, on the other hand, are focused on the playoffs for months now, after already doing the job when regular season is concerned last year, and falling short in the playoffs, because we have to be honest, anything less than a Stanley Cup is a letdown, as the players say themselves in numerous interviews.
When betting is concerned I don't think we have any great chance of making the dough here. Waiting for the opening game to be played (leaning Buffalo PL there of course), we'll be smarter on what to do then perhaps.
Projection: 4-1 Sabres.
Bets: none (yet).
New Jersey Devils (2) - Tampa Bay Lightning (7)
The clash of two hockey philosophies. The defensive side always gets my nod, but this time Tampa has their assets, which can't be overlooked. Despite poor goalie duo, as both Denis and Holmqvist have failed to boast consistent numbers, the Devils have scoring woes at times, and if at ANY moment this series becomes a scoring fest, or the offense gets the chance to decide the winner, I think Tampa will do the job. With guys like St Louis, Lecavalier, Richards and Boyle, they have their chances.
However, as EVERY time in professional sports, when pus comes to shove I'm going with the defense, this case rock solid Devils' D and Martin Brodeur.
Projection: Devils 4:3
Bets: none (yet)
Atlanta Thrashers (3) - New York Rangers (6)
History should be made here, I honestly think the Thrashers will win their first playoff series.
Both teams have scoring threats of their own, Rangers have the physical side, they're tougher, but the Thrashers have one timer wizard Ilya Kovalchuk, and a younger core.
The key to this one could be Jaromir Jagr. Remember last year when he got injured, NJ did the job without breaking a sweat, this time could be similar. Still, I think the Thrash will do the job here.
I see this one as a tight series, but I also think the fans won't see game 7 here.
Projection: 4-2 Thrashers.
Bets: series: Thrashers (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 3 units.
Game 1: over 5.5 goals (2.20 @ Pinnacle) 5 units.
Loving the plus money here.
Ottawa Senators (4) - Pittsburgh Penguins (5)
Love the young Penguins, the fact all 3 of their top players are 20 year olds, plus a young Fleury between the pipes, deserves huge respect. But I think the Sens will do the job here, even though I'm not a big fan of Ottawa, and I'm already a fan of these Penguins.
Basically an experienced, more hard nosed side should take this one. Plus, Emery has been solid.
Projection: Senators 4:2.
Bets: series: Senators (1.60 @ Pinnacle) 5 units.
Paradoxically, I'm actually leaning the Penguins in game 1, I think they fall later on, meaning I could scratch this bet and wait for better odds if they drop game 1.
WEST
Detroit Red Wings (1) - Calgary Flames (8)
Love the surprise to occur here. The thing is, despite the Wings being seen as huge favs, I disagree. Their record is affected a lot by easy divisional opposition, and they're known playoff chokers.
Now they don't have the leader in Steve Yzerman and the physical side of Shanahan, and I think they fall short in round one.
I know, the Flames have just clinched postseason in the last week, they have a huge disparity in road/home performances, and Kipper isn't what he used to be, but I think he will step up huge here, plus I don't think Bertuzzi and the Wings will be able to disrupt Calgary's D by blocking Kiprusoff's view, even though dominating that area would mean a lot of danger for Calgary.
Still, these are the Flames we're talking about, they have some tough defenders, they're overall a very hard working, fast skating team, and are still quite under the radar, I love the back those.
Iginla, Conroy and Huselius should do the job.
The Wings have it all, but I see a letdown.
Plus Kipper has been for Calgary what Brodeur is for NJ, a playmaker from their own zone, setting up plays and finding the skaters.
Projection: Calgary 4:3
Bets: series: Calgary (3.29 @ Pinnacle) 3 units.
Might go with an upset in game 1 as well.
Anaheim Ducks (2) - Minnesota Wild (7)
If you ask me, this one is a coin toss. Both teams are extremely talented (Anaheim with an edge though), but I didn't like what I saw in recent weeks, and I don't think they have the power to just shift to playoff mode immediately. Minny have a lot to offer as well, with Backstrom hot, also Fernandez ready to grab his chance if needed, if Minny manage to take home ice from the Ducks, I think they win this one. The Wild are 29-7-5 at home this season.
Projection: Minnesota 4:3
Bets: series: Minnesota (2.57 @ Pinnacle) 4 units.
Vancouver Canucks (3) - Dallas Stars (6)
Don't get me wrong, I love my Stars, but I think this could be the year of the Vancouver Canucks. I absolutely LOVE their balance, their chemistry, ability to close games, and to win games that are going down the wire and even OT.
They have Luongo between the pipes, I think he will rise to the occasion, plus a very balanced defense with Salo, Mitchell, Bieksa and Ohlund, several guys who can step up when secondary scoring is concerned which I think will be HUGE (Cowan, Morrison, Pyatt), and team leaders Sedin brothers, with Naslund up front.
The Stars aren't to be underestimated, but the fact Turco has choked EVERY TIME in the playoffs so far, and some feeling I have inside about another mediocre postseason, I really think the Nucks will do the job.
Projection: Vancouver 4:2
Bets: none so far.
Nashville Predators (4) - San Jose Sharks (5)
Quality wise this clash is the strongest. Whoever advances here will immediately emerge into a huge favorite to win it all. We could write a mile long post here about both teams and still end up locked at a standstill.
Projection: none.
Bets: none.
Some futures:
Predators (11.00) 1 unit
Sharks (14.00) 1 unit
Canucks (13.00) 2 units
Flames (conference finals: 16.00) 1 unit
Regular season:
NHL 2006/2007: 23 W - 21 L +27.55 units.
Good luck guys. :cheers: :smiley_acbe:
The playoffs are a different animal, and we should treat it that way.
So here are my thoughts and bets:
EAST
Buffalo Sabres (1) - NY Islanders (8)
The most one sided series in my eyes. Di Pietro is bruised after a concussion, and the Isles are playing on fumes right now, following a dramatic effort to clinch postseason.
The Sabres, on the other hand, are focused on the playoffs for months now, after already doing the job when regular season is concerned last year, and falling short in the playoffs, because we have to be honest, anything less than a Stanley Cup is a letdown, as the players say themselves in numerous interviews.
When betting is concerned I don't think we have any great chance of making the dough here. Waiting for the opening game to be played (leaning Buffalo PL there of course), we'll be smarter on what to do then perhaps.
Projection: 4-1 Sabres.
Bets: none (yet).
New Jersey Devils (2) - Tampa Bay Lightning (7)
The clash of two hockey philosophies. The defensive side always gets my nod, but this time Tampa has their assets, which can't be overlooked. Despite poor goalie duo, as both Denis and Holmqvist have failed to boast consistent numbers, the Devils have scoring woes at times, and if at ANY moment this series becomes a scoring fest, or the offense gets the chance to decide the winner, I think Tampa will do the job. With guys like St Louis, Lecavalier, Richards and Boyle, they have their chances.
However, as EVERY time in professional sports, when pus comes to shove I'm going with the defense, this case rock solid Devils' D and Martin Brodeur.
Projection: Devils 4:3
Bets: none (yet)
Atlanta Thrashers (3) - New York Rangers (6)
History should be made here, I honestly think the Thrashers will win their first playoff series.
Both teams have scoring threats of their own, Rangers have the physical side, they're tougher, but the Thrashers have one timer wizard Ilya Kovalchuk, and a younger core.
The key to this one could be Jaromir Jagr. Remember last year when he got injured, NJ did the job without breaking a sweat, this time could be similar. Still, I think the Thrash will do the job here.
I see this one as a tight series, but I also think the fans won't see game 7 here.
Projection: 4-2 Thrashers.
Bets: series: Thrashers (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 3 units.
Game 1: over 5.5 goals (2.20 @ Pinnacle) 5 units.
Loving the plus money here.
Ottawa Senators (4) - Pittsburgh Penguins (5)
Love the young Penguins, the fact all 3 of their top players are 20 year olds, plus a young Fleury between the pipes, deserves huge respect. But I think the Sens will do the job here, even though I'm not a big fan of Ottawa, and I'm already a fan of these Penguins.
Basically an experienced, more hard nosed side should take this one. Plus, Emery has been solid.
Projection: Senators 4:2.
Bets: series: Senators (1.60 @ Pinnacle) 5 units.
Paradoxically, I'm actually leaning the Penguins in game 1, I think they fall later on, meaning I could scratch this bet and wait for better odds if they drop game 1.
WEST
Detroit Red Wings (1) - Calgary Flames (8)
Love the surprise to occur here. The thing is, despite the Wings being seen as huge favs, I disagree. Their record is affected a lot by easy divisional opposition, and they're known playoff chokers.
Now they don't have the leader in Steve Yzerman and the physical side of Shanahan, and I think they fall short in round one.
I know, the Flames have just clinched postseason in the last week, they have a huge disparity in road/home performances, and Kipper isn't what he used to be, but I think he will step up huge here, plus I don't think Bertuzzi and the Wings will be able to disrupt Calgary's D by blocking Kiprusoff's view, even though dominating that area would mean a lot of danger for Calgary.
Still, these are the Flames we're talking about, they have some tough defenders, they're overall a very hard working, fast skating team, and are still quite under the radar, I love the back those.
Iginla, Conroy and Huselius should do the job.
The Wings have it all, but I see a letdown.
Plus Kipper has been for Calgary what Brodeur is for NJ, a playmaker from their own zone, setting up plays and finding the skaters.
Projection: Calgary 4:3
Bets: series: Calgary (3.29 @ Pinnacle) 3 units.
Might go with an upset in game 1 as well.
Anaheim Ducks (2) - Minnesota Wild (7)
If you ask me, this one is a coin toss. Both teams are extremely talented (Anaheim with an edge though), but I didn't like what I saw in recent weeks, and I don't think they have the power to just shift to playoff mode immediately. Minny have a lot to offer as well, with Backstrom hot, also Fernandez ready to grab his chance if needed, if Minny manage to take home ice from the Ducks, I think they win this one. The Wild are 29-7-5 at home this season.
Projection: Minnesota 4:3
Bets: series: Minnesota (2.57 @ Pinnacle) 4 units.
Vancouver Canucks (3) - Dallas Stars (6)
Don't get me wrong, I love my Stars, but I think this could be the year of the Vancouver Canucks. I absolutely LOVE their balance, their chemistry, ability to close games, and to win games that are going down the wire and even OT.
They have Luongo between the pipes, I think he will rise to the occasion, plus a very balanced defense with Salo, Mitchell, Bieksa and Ohlund, several guys who can step up when secondary scoring is concerned which I think will be HUGE (Cowan, Morrison, Pyatt), and team leaders Sedin brothers, with Naslund up front.
The Stars aren't to be underestimated, but the fact Turco has choked EVERY TIME in the playoffs so far, and some feeling I have inside about another mediocre postseason, I really think the Nucks will do the job.
Projection: Vancouver 4:2
Bets: none so far.
Nashville Predators (4) - San Jose Sharks (5)
Quality wise this clash is the strongest. Whoever advances here will immediately emerge into a huge favorite to win it all. We could write a mile long post here about both teams and still end up locked at a standstill.
Projection: none.
Bets: none.
Some futures:
Predators (11.00) 1 unit
Sharks (14.00) 1 unit
Canucks (13.00) 2 units
Flames (conference finals: 16.00) 1 unit
Regular season:
NHL 2006/2007: 23 W - 21 L +27.55 units.
Good luck guys. :cheers: :smiley_acbe:
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