NHL Notable Streaks & Ongoing Playoff Stat Notes Thread

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
San Jose currently has a 10 game streak of their fixtures having totaled 5 goals or less. To put this into context, the following stats (of completed streaks) are from the 05-06 season onwards (since the rule changes) -


5 goals or less game streaks​

Streak length ... No. of streaks
5 games ........... 142
6 games ............ 84
7 games ............ 47
8 games ............ 22
9 games ............ 14
10 games .......... 5
11 games .......... 1
12 games .......... 5
13 games .......... 1
14 games .......... 2
15 games .......... 0
16 games .......... 1​

From the above can be derived the following...​

- 99.07% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length have ended before reaching 14 games in length.

- 97.22% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length have ended before reaching 11 games in length.

- 80.00% of the streaks that reached 10 games in length have ended before reaching 14 games in length.

The numbers are in, and they say SJ's current streak has piss-all chance of going on for much longer.


Any thought I'd have of chasing San Jose's next 6+ goal result precludes the thought of chasing beyond a max. of 4 games. So how does SJ's current streak compare to those previous exceptional streaks which did manage to surpass the 13 game barrier (since SJ's streak surviving 4 games would make for a 14 game streak)?

- The 14+ game streak teams all won at least 60% of their first 14 games.
SJ has gone 4-6 SU during their current streak, so even if they won 4 straight games they could not match the winning percentage feats of the 3 teams here.

- The 14+ game streak teams all won at least 7 games in regulation during their first 14 games.
SJ has managed only 2 regulation wins during their current streak, so even if they won 4 straight in regulation they could not match the feats of the 3 teams here (indeed, they only have 2 regulation wins through their last 17 games).

- The 14+ game streak teams all managed at least 2 shutout wins during their first 14 games.
SJ has not only not managed any shutout wins during their current streak, but has managed only 1 shutout win this entire season to date. For them to match the feats of the 3 teams here, they'd need 2 shut out wins in their next 4 games.

- The 14+ streak teams conceded 17, 19 & 24 regulation goals after 14 games of their streaks.
SJ has conceded 22 regulation goals during their current 10 game streak, so could only concede 2 more goals over their next 4 games to match the *worst* defensive effort of the 3 teams here.

The comparisons could go on, but I think it's pretty clear by now that all the exceptional streaks have all been built upon good-to-excellent defensive form (which naturally bled into consistently positive SU results). SJ has nothing of the sort going on to threaten to achieve such a mark based on this angle. Basically their streak is built upon offensive futility on their part the nights their defense has sucked, and the nights their offense has been firing they've managed good defensive efforts. There's plenty of lengthy (7-10 game) streaks listed in the table above that were underpinned by such dynamics (unaccompanied by any consistent SU form), but they never last like the exceptional streaks because the inevitable truly terrible defensive night always comes sooner or later (conceding 4+ goals), and/or a poor defensive effort has inevitably coincided with the team putting in that poor effort not being willing to give up on said game, leading to their finding ways to score goals to remain in the contest (your typical NHL shootout). A quick look at San Jose's Over results this season immediately evidences the aforementioned dynamics: every Over result they've had has totaled at least 8 goals (not one 6 or 7 goal game to be found).

San Jose has also managed another rare feat, this time unique: since the new rules were introduced for the 05-06 season, the previous longest amount of games any particular team has needed to play before they registered their first 6 or 7 goal total was 16 (Calgary to start the 05-06 season). San Jose currently sits on having played 22 games this season without yet having played in one that's totaled 6 or 7 goals (since 05-06, this is only the 10th time a team has played at least 10 games to start a season without registering a 6/7 goal game).

What makes this chase situation for me are the coming opponents slated to meet San Jose...

Saint Louis (SJ at home then away)
- The Blues have the greatest Over bias of any Western team, and only Tampa Bay has matched their feat of paying out on the least number of Unders (6) through a team's first 23 games.
- Even with Halak back after nearly a month off, their coach is still playing musical chairs with 3 choices of goalie, and this lack of stability in net has led to their conceding at least 3 regulation goals in 12 of their last 17 games.
- They are 8-2-2 to Over vs opponents outside of their division.
- They have met SJ once previously this season, losing 1-2 at home. They've currently played 6 other teams at least twice this season: against every one they've managed at least one 5-goal (minimum) contest within 1 of those first 2 meetings.

Colorado (SJ away)
- Has conceded at least 2 regulation goals in 13 of their last 15 games.
- They meet SJ in Colorado, where they average 3.20 goals in regulation (vs averaging only 2.00 on the road). This is the right venue to bank on the Avs contributing towards a total.
- This season Colorado has averaged 4.66 regulation goals (3-0 SU) when meeting a team at home for the first time after having already previously played them on the road (they've already played SJ twice in SJ).


Small bet on SJ/STL O5.0 (1.87) to start.
 
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Thanks, cogenman.

----------------------------------

For those who aren't aware, Detroit currently has a 6 game 5-goal-or-less streak going, and Winnipeg has a 5 game one going.

44% of the streaks that reach 5 games in length have failed to go on to reach 6 games in length.
70% of the streaks that reach 5 games in length have failed to go on to reach 7 games in length.
84% of the streaks that reach 5 games in length have failed to go on to reach 8 games in length.
91% of the streaks that reach 5 games in length have failed to go on to reach 9 games in length.

It's a bit early to get interested in the Jets streak, but the Red Wings one is at a point where I'll ascertain their coming opponents before they play their next game (esp. as they'll play their next game off being shutout today. Their being in an offensive bounceback spot naturally feeds into the likelihood of an Over result).
 
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OK, changed the title of the thread to reflect what I'll use this for.

Today we have 3 streaks in play. The first has already been mentioned (Detroit's 5-goal or less run), and 2 new ones (concerning respectively Ottawa & Montreal, who just happen to be playing each other). I'll lay out the stats then naturally note my approach.

Ottawa has played11 straight games which have been decided by 1 goal margins. This got me wondering *how long* this streak really was, so I gathered the stats. Since the rule changes leading into the 05-06 season...

1-goal margin game streaks​


Streak length .... No. of streaks
4 games ............ 258
5 games ............ 112
6 games ............ 48
7 games ............ 25
8 games ............ 10
9 games ............ 4
10 games .......... 2

​
From the above can be derived the following...

- 99.00% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length have ended before reaching 10 games in length.

- 95.12% of the streaks that reached 7 games in length have ended before reaching 10 games in length.

- 87.50% of the streaks that reached 8 games in length have ended before reaching 10 games in length.

The numbers are in, and they say Ottawa's current streak is clearly extremely long. In 210 completed individual team seasons since 05-06, there has only been 2 streaks longer.

Now obviously this streak ending is a difficult thing to chase, since betting the Dog SU & the Fav on the puckline (to cover either team winning by 2+ goals) leaves such a small margin to make any profit (short of investing extremely large amounts, not my intention or desire with a prospective chase). But there's this to consider...

Montreal has played out 7 straight games that have totaled 6+ goals. Since the rule changes leading into the 05-06 season...


6+ goal game streaks​

streak length ... No. of streaks
5 games ........... 119
6 games ........... 56
7 games ........... 30
8 games ........... 15
9 games ........... 11
10 games .......... 3
11 games .......... 3​

From the above can be derived the following...​

- 97.46% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length ended before they could double in size (reach 10 games).​

- 92.82% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length have ended before they could reach 9 games in length.

- 86.49% of the streaks that reached 5 games in length have ended before they could reach 8 games in length.​

The percentages indicate that Montreal's streak, while not insignificant at 7 game in length, starts to face a serious uphill battle to extended itself significantly further from this point onwards.

I see 1 bet being able to *cover* the likelihood of at least 1 of these streaks continuing, that being Montreal -1.5. Given Ottawa's horrific recent road record (2-9 SU last 11) & the fact Montreal is one of the best teams in the East, I don't think it's too much to expect a minimum of 2 goals from the home team. They get those 2 goals, then if Ottawa wins by 2 the 6+ goal game streak has to continue (2-4 min. scoreline).

Montreal -1.5 for a small bet.
​
 
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gl bc, good to see you posting!, and blown lead, but hopefully a goal soon comes, so at least it gives way to an empty netter opportunity
 
Thanks, Scopey. That late late late late late goal in the 2nd basically screwed everything. It gave the dead team life. Habs win easily IMO if they enter the 3rd up 2.
 
3 streaks of lengthy statistical significance are in play for tonight's games...

- Montreal's 6+ goal game streak sits at 8 (already mentioned in a previous post).
- Columbus has gone 9 games w/out a regulation loss, having started this streak w/a 5-12-2 record.
- Columbus has gone 13 games w/out a 2+ goal loss, having started this streak w/a 4-9-2 record.

This is the first time I've posted the latter 2 streaks and at present don't have time to post up the stats I've gathered for them (will do so later), but they are of exceptional length.

So for me a simple Njy/Mon U5.5 + Phx ml parlay covers both streaks. I won't be suprised to see one leg lose, so this is a mere interest bet.
 
Well no offense but I hope it's the Mon under that loses, I got them over 5.

Some serious digging here man, well done.
 
Been biding my time watching some previously mentioned streaks move forward, mainly because the scheduled opponents for the streak bearers really didn't instil a lot of confidence to be worth hard cash being put on them. But that situation wasn't going to last forever if said streaks survived, and while 1 didn't (Ottawa's run of games being decided by 1-goal margins) a couple of others have. A couple are on the line Saturday, and both belong to the same team...

Columbus has gone 12 games without losing in regulation. They started this streak a sub-.500 team. Since the 05-06 season (the first since the rule changes)...

Sub-.500 Regulation Teams
No Regulation Losses Streaks

7 games ........... 20
8 games ............ 6
9 games ........... 13
10 games .......... 6
11 games .......... 2
12 games .......... 1
13 games .......... 0
14 games .......... 0
15 games .......... 2

The noticable thing about these stats (which only include completed streaks) is how rapidly the streak numbers peter out after the 10 game mark (96.9% off all streaks to hit 7 games fail to reach 13 games).

How do these stats relate to, and reflect on, Columbus' current streak?

(1) Columbus' streak has hit the 12 game mark. Since 05-06 only 3 other teams with sub.-500 records at the time their streaks began have managed to play as many games without a loss in regulation. Those teams were the Bruins, Hurricanes & Penguins. Here's a comparison of the peformances of these 4 teams after their respective streaks hit the 12 game mark -

............................................ CBJ ......... PIT ....... BOS ......... CAR
Home/Away games:............... 10-2 ....... 7-5 ........ 8-4 ......... 6-6
Wins/Losses:.......................... 8-4 ....... 11-1 ..... 11-1 ....... 11-1
Regulation wins:....................... 3 .......... 10 .......... 9 ........... 10
2+ goal wins:........................... 2 ........... 6 ........... 7 ............ 7
Regulation goal differential:... +0.83 .... +1.83 .... +2.50 .... +2.08

In every category of note, the Blue Jackets efforts are clearly inferior. Where the above stats testify to the BJ's scraping by their opponents, they reveal the other 3 teams easing by theirs. And while (some of) the BJ's stats are hardly terrible in-&-of themselves, the most telling factor is the very first stat line. Which leads to...

(2) This average-at-best BJ team (their record is still only 13-12-6 after such a run) has only played just 2 of their last 12 games away from home. Guess where 5 of the BJ's last 6 regulation losses have come? That's right, on the road. And now the BJs face 4 straight road games.

(3) Did I mention that the Bruins & Penguins teams both still had their core squads from having won the Stanley Cup within 1 of their previous 2 respective seasons? Did I mention the Hurricanes team managed their streak in the same season they won the Stanley Cup? The fact is each of these teams respective streaks were founded by very, very good squads who were simply suffering slow starts to their new seasons (Hurricanes streak started after 3 games into the 05-06 season, Bruins streak started after 10 games into the 11-12 season, Penguins streak after 19 games into the 10-11 season). While the Blue Jackets' streak also started after just 19 games into this new season, their early crappy form can be put down to simply being an average squad rather than being any kind of Stanley Cup winning side in the making, or the waiting.

The bottom line is that what the Blue Jackets are doing as a *legitimate* sub-.500 team is simply unheard of since the rule changes. None of the only other 3 teams to manage such a feat for 12 games were *legitimate* sub-.500 teams (all finished the seasons featuring their streaks with w/l records at minimum 16 games over .500). This is the first truly average/*legitimate sub-.500 team to manage such a streak since the rule changes, and they've done it on the back of a favorable schedule (both venue & opponent wise) married to some undeniably excellent goaltending. But now the road games start, now some teams looking for revenge (every one of their next 4 opponents lost @Columbus during this current streak) get to have their say on their own turf.

Wait, but that's not all...​

​

Columbus has gone 15 games without suffering a 2+ goal loss. They started this streak a sub-.500 team. Since the 05-06 season (the first since the rule changes)...


Sub-.500 Regulation Teams
No 2+ Goal Losses Streaks

8 games ............ 27
9 games ............ 24
10 games .......... 24
11 games .......... 10
12 games .......... 3
13 games .......... 2
14 games .......... 4
15 games .......... 2
16 games .......... 5
17 games .......... 1
18 games .......... 0
19 games .......... 1
20 games .......... 1

​
The noticable thing about these stats (which only include completed streaks) is again how few streaks there are beyond 16 games in length. With the BJ's streak already sitting at 15 games and their next 4 games being played on the road, it's not hard to come to the perception that there is great inertia to the BJ's current streak lasting until they play their next home game. And of course, any game they lose by 2+ goals automatically must mean it's a loss that's occurred in regulation. (I won't dwell on any stat comparisons between the BJ's current streak and those 8 other sub-.500 at-the-time teams who managed streaks longer than 15 games, but that's not because I don't have them - once again the BJ's stats are revealed as generally inferior - but because I think the work isn't warranted. If the message isn't plain by now this team is overachieving and a regression is about to hit them, then really nothing I can add will convince otherwise.)

Opponent #1:
Nashville has been, frankly, fucking horrible on the road recently (lost 9 of their last 10 away in regulation, conceding an avg of 4.22 gpg in those losses), yet the moment they returned home they belted a team 5-3 (led 5-2 w/1:00 to go) who they'd lost to 3-6 on the road less than a week before. Now they're @home vs a team they lost to 3-4 less than a week ago.
If I'm to rate the Pred's chances of winning by 2 goals here, I'd guess it would be most likely through the EN goal route. The BJs are playing well enough that a close game here wouldn't suprise. But, given the BJ B2B scenario and it being their first road game in ages plus facing a divisional foe out for revenge, a BJ letdown effort leading to a belting also wouldn't suprise. But the former view prevails for me, meaning the Pred's puckline (=having an interest in that 2+ goal loss streak ending) holds no interest.

Nashville ml (1.68) for a small bet.
 
Thanks, guys.

------

4-1 up after 1 period. Did someone say something about...

Naughty me, can't count any chickens this early.
 
The Saint Louis Blues are managing to do something highly unusual: they've played 17 games without a losing team registering exactly 2 goals. Unusual because, hardly a suprise, 2 goals is a very regularly occurring score for losing NHL teams. To wit, since the 05-06 season (these numbers include all games within a season, regular & playoff. Some streaks have naturally therefore, as the Blues has done, included both kinds of games)...

No Losing Team
2-Goal Total Streaks

10 games .......... 40
11 games .......... 40
12 games .......... 16
13 games .......... 15
14 games .......... 5
15 games .......... 4
16 games .......... 1
17 games .......... 1
18 games .......... 1
19 games .......... 2

​
- Of the 125 completed streaks to this point which reached 10 games in length, only 2.40% of them went on to surpass the 17 game mark.

What makes the Blues streak even more unusual, is that they've only had 1 losing team total more than 1 goal (them, in a 3-5 loss @Colorado). All the other top streaks (15+) listed above featured at minimum 3 x 3+ goal totals by the losing team (and that only once: the rest had at minimum 4 such results). The dearth of losing teams totalling barely anything over this number of games (16 totals of 1 goal or less over 17 games) is unheard of since the new rules came in.

Obviously if the losing team scores 2 in this Game 3, then Over cashes. So what are some specific stats attached to this game that may point to an Over result?

- Since LA got over their poor start to the season (3-7 SU after 10 games, the usual SC winning hangover effect) and got & stayed above .500, they've averaged 3.55 regulation goals/game @home in games they haven't been shutout in.

- STL has averaged 2.44 regulation goals/game on the road this season when those games were started with Elliott in net, and weren't the 2nd game of a B2B set.

- Elliott has conceded an average of 2.75 regulation goals/game on the road this season when he hasn't shutout the opposing team. In other words, unless this guy is perfect (he has 3 SOs in 11 road starts) he's been decidedly average (& to me it's unthinkable LA is shutout here down 0-2 and on home ice for the first time in a playoff game since winning Lord Stanley).


It was always my take that this series higher scoring venue would be in LA. And no sooner do we get here than the line makers finally feel forced to drop STL game lines from 5.0 to 4.5. Over it is (small bet to start - I don't believe STL will exit LA with this streak intact).
 
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That hit post by LA could sink this Over. Defensive type affairs always need an early (1st 10-15 mins) goal to break up the usual defensive patterns. If a period goes by and those patterns get entrenched, obv. it's so much harder for the goals to flow.
 
My thoughts for a couple of Monday's games -

LA Kuntz/Stl Pooze
LA & StL line up for Game 4 on Monday. From what I saw watching Game 3, it doesn't make sense to back O4.5 again when I'm now of the opinion that it will/can only cash with one team's offence leading the way. It's now crystal clear to me that LA must do the majority of scoring for Over to come in here (due to my derisive take on the Blue's O: this team plays defense 1st, 2nd & 3rd, and hopes, or rather prays, to fluke goals), and it's been my longstanding take re Overs total betting that whenever I feel I can only look to one side to do the absolute majority of the business scoring wise for a total to cash, then it makes no sense to back the total before opting to back that side, be it SU or laying pts/goals/runs (therefore giving oneself 3 bites at the cherry: said team does the business scoring wise & hence wins w/the total coming in, said team does the business scoring wise in winning but shuts their opponent down to the degree the total - usually very narrowly - doesn't come in, & finally said team doesn't travel well scoring wise but still scrapes by with a win due to shutting down their opponent completely).
Here, with LA now averaging just 1.33 gpg over their last 6 & only 1.00 gpg in this series thus far (& are lucky to average the latter at that), I don't have the confidence that they can score to the extent needed (3+ goals) on this StL D that would be required for them to lead the way to an Over result. I no longer believe these 2 shithouse offenses can manage 5 goals in regulation, barring an EN goal on the back of a 3(goals? how? by which team? almost "impossible")-1 scoreline. In short, the only way I believe this total can cash is if this game somehow finds its way to be 2-2 at the end of regulation, and I'd never back an NHL total on the back of such a limited expectation (except if the odds were hugely out of whack, which simply is never the case). What's changed for me since making my previous post, is I thought we'd see a diff. LA team back @home, since the low scoring affairs in StL weren't a suprise (& LA's rink has shallower corners, making for a faster paced game = more chances). LA's putrid effort in Game 3 was a suprise. They're lucky to have totaled 1. It's that weak effort that's undermined my belief in them. Maybe it's here in Game 4 that their O bounces back after 3 shit games: if that ends up the case then so be it but I'm not putting my money back on the line to hope that's the case. And conversely, I don't have the belief that their own D will crack to the extent that would allow StL to go bananas scoring wise. The only scenario I see a high scoring game (4-5+ goals) coming about is through a couple of 1st Period goals to one team, w/that 2-0 lead then forcing the other team to free it's approach right up (= abandon all defense-first pretences). That would result in the leading team still sticking to it's normal defense-first approach, but feasting on a bunch of breakaway chances. But I see this scenario as so unlikely (there's been all off 3 total goals scored in the first 2 periods of 3 combined games) as to not be worth contemplating putting money down expecting it to manifest in reality. After all this derision towards the Over, why not back Under? because 2-2 is then a given. More seriously, U4.5 in worth backing for games in StL, but not here, not when the rink itself physically mitigates against Unders (LA is 8-7-5 to Under their last 20 @home: that's only a 40% losing rate for Overs, not quite the 75% losing rate Overs have in STL's last 20 home games).

It's ugliness everywhere you turn for this series. I think the Blues scrape by to the next round, where Slammerheim will then rip them & their defense-first approach a new one (the West's 2nd best team scored 5, 3 & 1 non-EN reg. goals on them this past reg. season. Elliott was in net for only 1 of those games: guess which one
icon10.png
).


Detroilet/Slammerheim
Having conceded 3, 4 & 4 regulation goals in their last 3 games vs Slammerheim, the question I have to ask is, why is Detroit's defense suddenly going to get it right? Did the Islanders D suddenly get it right in their Game 3 after conceding 5 & 3 goals in their first 2 games? Did Vancouver's D suddenly get it right in their Game 3 after conceding 3 & 3 goals in their first 2 games? Here you're asking me to pay (minus odds) to get on a team with a defense in said current form. Eh? A team (dys)functioning like that is one I expect to get plus money for. The catch of course is, They're the Red Wings! They're at home off a bad home loss! They're going to bounce back!
Slammerheim has scored 3+ regulation goals in 7 straight games (after a 15 game lull where they avg'd 1.93 gpg before that: they obv. clicked back into gear when the playoffs came into view). They're the team that is humming like a well oiled machine here, the other is not (remember Detroilet's only win in this series was founded upon 2 goals in the first 5 mins of Game 2. Slammerheim has outscored them by a count of 10-2 {excl. ENs} from the 6th to the 60th minute in all games combined: translated, that means this series really isn't close, but for an extremely early & sick OT goal). As for Slammerheim's defense, take away their slow starts to Game 2 in both the 1st periods of regulation & OT, and they've conceded just 3 goals in a tad over 175 minutes of playoff hockey. Did someone mention a well oiled offence? Well their D aint so shabby either. A win here and the Ducks go home knowing they've the ability to wrap it up/never hit the road again in this series, so there's no discernible lack of motivation angle on their part (if they were up 3-0 I'd fear a letdown, but I see no basis for expecting one here).
Detroilet? The players in front of Howard must feel at this point in time that unless they do all the defensive work necessary, then Slammerheim is going to score (in 2 home games vs Slammerheim this season, he's conceded 8 goals on 69 shots. Yeah, I want my money on that guy at minus odds). How much a lack of faith in your goalie affects an NHL player, I can only guess at. But such a lack of faith must weigh players down & wear them out psychologically - hey, isn't such a reality reflected in an 0-4 loss?

IMO if you like Detroit, back the Over. I don't believe Anaheim scores less than 2 goals here, which means a RW's win obv. leaves you at worse with a push. Me? I've no choice but to put a little something on the 2nd best team in the West at plus odds vs a defence which belongs in court (being prosecuted for incompetency) before it belongs in a hockey rink (while some might point to Detroilet's B2B wins in Anaheim, where they conceded only 1 goal in each game, as 2 realities which defy my derision of their D vs the Ducks, my reply is the latter team was 22-7 SU before those twin games, and those losses subsequently kicked off a 5-8 SU run by them. By my reckoning, the RWs caught them at the very moment they were ripe for a sustained letdown, since it's rare any NHL team sustains a .750+ win rate over a span greater than 30 games. Funnily enough, Chicago's first slump of the season came at the precise moment they too crossed the 29 game mark).

Oh, final stat: off a shutout loss this season, Detroilet - w/Howard in net - has conceded an avg of 3.50 regulation goals (7 to the best team in the West. Who's 2nd best?). Where is Ty Conklin when you need him? (I know, Hašek & Osgood were better, but then anyone is better than Howard at the moment.)
 
Since the in-game thread has RIP'd and it's where I was posting various notable stats that popped up from the playoffs, I'll post those stats in here now.

-----------------------

Don't think I've ever noted such a stretch of playoff games (19) that've featured so few Unders (2). But the situation becomes even more pronounced when you break down the stats as follows

Last 22 playoff games:
Games involving Central divison teams: 3-3-3
Games involving no Central div. teams: 11-1-1 to Over

All playoff games to date:
Games involving Central divison teams: 7-5-3 to Under
Games involving no Central div. teams: 13-6-3 to Over
 
Some stats after the 1st games of Round 3 have been gotten out of the way...

- The last 12 West Conf. games have not seen a single road team total 2 or 3 goals (compared to 7 road teams having managed the same in the East Conf.).

- The last 19 West Conf. games have not seen a single road team total 2 goals (compared to 5 road teams having managed the same in the East Conf.).

- Only 1 home team has totaled less than 2 goals over the last 22 West Conf. games (compared to 5 home teams having managed the same in the East Conf.).

- 15 of the last 17 West Conf. home favs have won, compared to 12 of the last 17 East Conf. home favs having done the same.

- Only 2 road dogs (both East Conf.) have won a match scoring less than 3 goals (unreal).
 
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